The shortlist horse races all are based on the betting market rather than any franked form. For those with confidence in the market, then follow away.
I would opt for Elyaaadi as my speculative place bet today, but think that the 740 Kempton offers greater chance of success as a 4 horse race for 2 places , with one clear outsider.
*****ONE A DAY 740 KEMPTON - Back Seattle Drive to place only***** - wait til nearer the off please to allow the market to get liquid.
Those who are familiar with Betfair Multiples, as I am, I would consider as a ready alternative the following.
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Well done Germany scoring 3 exactly. Turkey the let down team for the multiple. 1-0 is always a killer scoreline away.
4pm - Germany U19 v Switzerland U19 - 1.49 home - Germany's last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals. They have won their last 4 matches.WDWD last 4 for the Swiss so perhaps we should be looking to a neutral goals bet? Illiquid goals markets at present.
4pm - Northern Ireland U19 v Andorra U19 - 1.05 - again expect goals from what has been a solid looking NI team from what I have seen of them.Andorra have scored 2 goals in their last 12. The question is not whether Northern Ireland will win, but how many they can score.
6,10,2,5,4,6,2,4,5,3 are the goals conceded by Andorra in their last 10 matches. The 2 conceded were Kazakhstan - says more about them than anything Andorra are capable of.
NI scored 5 against China and Iceland recently and surely these 2 sides are better than Andorra?
What does the market advise?
Alas this is not in running and only over 2.5 goals is available. And illiquid. A real pity as I could envision a strong goals bet here.
4pm - Portugal U19 v Georgia U19 - 1.3 home - 6-0 head to head win in April 2010 makes this 1.3 very enticing. 4 goals scored in the 2nd half signals a potential flood of goals if tight 1st half.
DWDLL for Portugal last 5 matches. Losses against Croatia and Spain. The 2 draws were score draws 2-2 so a goals bet could be the neutral bet?
All of Portugal's last 12 matches have been over 1.5 goals., 9 of those matches have been over 2.5 goals.
The asian handicap starts at +1 and moves to +2 so they expect a game not like the 6-0 drubbing of April this year. Illiquid 1.5 goals market but should be around 1.18.
Georgia have only played 4 matches in 2010. Portugal have played 12+ matches in 2010.
In their last 7 matches, Georgia have drawn 3, lost 3 and won 1. Beware the scorelines 1-0 for the win, 2 0-0's and a 1-1 for the draws but emphatic losses 3-0 and 6-0 ( to the Portugeuse)
Against Azerbaijan last time out, Portugal were priced lower than this 1.3 today yet went 2 goals down. They drew 2-2 ( I remember as it was an enhanced bet) so if they go a goal down today, then panic not.
I suspect this is a must win today as they were expected to beat Azerbaijan comfortably yet end up 2 points down.
530pm - Montenegro U19 v San Marino U19 - 1.09 home -IN RUNNING and asian handicaps start at +1.5 because Montenegro are not world beaters.
4,3,4,4,5,5,8,6,4,1,5,5 the amount conceded by San Marino in each of their last 12 matches.
Only once have they conceded less than 3, and only twice have they conceded less than 4.
Over 2.5 goals, if liquid, could be the play here ( with trading in mind given Montenegro are not the best)
LDDWLLLLLDLD for Montenegro . They seem to have seen a bit of a flourish ( relatively speaking) in last 4 ( latest first)
Montenegro have only scored 3 in their last 9 matches which is why we see such a negative asian handicap. 1.09 usually indicates 3-0 to 4-0 win, but can we trust Montenegro even against such a poor team?
230 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Enabling, 11/4 Cloud Rock, Garde Cotiere, 11/2 Owain, 11/1 Sawahill, 100/1 Trojan Touch.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond ENABLING, who sets a decent standard and should be well suited by the surface. |
Front 3 are tight but is Hughes' ridden Enabling really " hard to look beyond"? Only 2 places.
240 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Nicene Creed, 5/1 Rash Call, 13/2 Taketimeout, 14/1 Action Hawk, Finger Spin, Midnight Opera, 25/1 Totally Beat, 33/1 Secret Palm.
| DIOMED VERDICT: NICENE CREED is evidently held in some regard by his top team and should win this. |
Price gapper in this hurdles race based on sole Punchestown bumper run?
Now 1/2 in places
300 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Plutocraft, 5/1 Copper Penny, 11/2 Abhar, 6/1 Seasonal Cross, 15/2 Prince Of Thebes, 17/2 Conry, 10/1 Expensive Problem, Silent Oasis, 12/1 Cativo Cavallino, 18/1 Basra, 20/1 Bennelong, Green Earth.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SEASONAL CROSS may be able to raise her form another notch and is preferred to Plutocraft, Abhar and Copper Penny. |
Expensive Problem all red, halved in odds to 5/1 and favourite now. Potential gamble?
305 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 First Lieutenant, 5/1 Steel Park, White Star Line, 8/1 Lacarmic, 25/1 Bostons Gift, Lady Perspex, Rince Deireadh, Super Vic, 33/1 Kings County Star, Loughnagall, Melodie De Lune, Mr Pernickety, 50/1 Matilda Highway, Sister Steve, Stowaway Pearl, 66/1 Another Aoife, Clearwater West, Clogher Storm, Gortalasa, Izind An Affair, Joseph´s Rose, Laffan Island, Moynihan´s Lady, The Dingle Way, Three Way Bond,
That is some price gap for such a big field. 1st was 4th of 30 on his hurdle debut so thought capable of at least a place? Only 3 places though as this is not a handicap.
340 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Voler La Vedette, 3/1 Elyaadi, 7/1 Alpine Glade, 8/1 Star Wood, 10/1 Gudnis Gracious Me, 16/1 Grangeclare Gold, 20/1 Lizzie Bennett, 25/1 Ocean Bright, 66/1 Sarah Collins.
A listed hurdles race and generally we cannot discount anyone in listed races.
What of potential market movers? Well Elyaadi is all red, 15/8 in places and threatening favouratism.
Ocean Bright is a more speculative market mover , all red, and 16/1 ( 14/1 with one)
Voler has not run since April 2010 while Elyaadi won at Listowel on 12th September ( I was there)
410 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/2 Green To Gold, 6/1 Thistimesforgood, 7/1 Ringfort, 8/1 Try Freedom, 9/1 Pride Of The Lions, 10/1 Lynott, 12/1 Atlas Peak, Newmarket Story, View From The Top, 14/1 On The Loose, 16/1 Rivazza, 20/1 Double Eagle, Le Reveur, Lightening Sky, Ma Ani, Mel Del, Orange Touch, Peace Please, 25/1 Fiddler Lake, Loveisthedrug, Needle Rep, 33/1 Academy Gigsnreels, George Arzanine, Rokococo Palm, The Boss´s Choice,
For those who like to follow gambles, Lynott is 3/1, all red, and backed into favouratism.
550 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Muirhead, 11/2 Coolavanny Gaffer, 8/1 Hans Crescent, 20/1 Dromore Express, Wellforth, 25/1 Borrowaddy, Topo Gigio.
In such a difficult day, do we simply trust the market? Muirhead is strong in this beginners chase, has Paul Carberry onboard.
Only 3 under 20/1 and only 2 places .Muirhead has not run since Punchestown in April this year and has never run over chase fences in a competitive environment.
"This should be a formality" and " stands head and shoulders above this opposition" -the Racing Post hacks are certainly confident as is the market. Highly tried hurdler.
640 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Badeel, 100/30 Mariners Lodge, 6/1 Neighbourhood, 15/2 Alfouzy, 9/1 Fennica, 10/1 Crimson China, Deceptive, 25/1 Dark And Dangerous, 66/1 Black Iceman,
| DIOMED VERDICT: BADEEL's debut second was well advertised at the weekend and he can go one better this time. |
Only one of 2 races for Dettori today. Dare we trust a one time out 2 year old on his debut on the all weather?
710 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Laatafreet, 5/2 Circus Star, 9/2 Silverware, 7/1 Halifax, 12/1 Charles Fosterkane, 14/1 Primevere, Shooting Line, 16/1 Achalas, 66/1 Carrauntoohil, Come On Eileen.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Halifax and Laatafreet are newcomers to note - the latter in particular given his stable's excellent strike-rate with 2yos - but CIRCUS STAR shaped with plenty of promise on debut and Brian Meehan's youngsters often improve a lot from their first run. |
Circus star for Fallon is now favourite. Laatafreet is the other Dettori runner.
740 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sonning Rose, 9/4 Seattle Drive, 11/4 Byrony, 8/1 Navigation Track, 25/1 Al Mayasah, Joyously.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A small field and tactics could play a part. That may not be ideal for Sonning Rose, who needs to put a moderate run behind her, and preference is for SEATTLE DRIVE who, like his smart relatives, looks the type to continue to improve. |
Now 4 runners, one of which is 20/1 and can hopefully be discounted. Sonning Rose is a non runner which makes Seattle Drive interesting. Should be 3 horses for 2 places.
SHORTLIST
4pm - Northern Ireland U19 v Andorra U19 - 1.05 - over 2.5 goals is 1.22 with Bet365 and is illiquid at Betfair. Not in running a real pity as these Andorrans will lose, but by how much?
4pm - Portugal U19 v Georgia U19 - 1.3 home - in running. Portugal have clear fitness advantage as Georgia have only played 4 competitive matches in 2010. 6-0 win in april but why are the asian handicaps only starting at +1? Am I missing something?
1.6 over 2.5 goals at Bet365 mirrors an element of caution that the asian handicap markets showed.
Hmmm! I would have expected an easy win for Portugal but the markets hint at a hard fought close match.
Still, is it enough to put us off backing Portugal at 1.3?
530pm - Montenegro U19 v San Marino U19 -San Marino should lose convincingly but Montenegro have only scored 3 goals in their last 9 matches. Straight match odds bet is safer albeit at only 1.09
240 UTTOXETER - typical of the kind of horses we face today, this is another "potential bet" . Nicene Creed is a strong market leader here, well backed all morning, and 1.13 to place having only had a single run in a bumper ( this is a hurdles race). Bought for £175,000 after the bumper so connections think the horse is something.
8 runners and 3 places - do we trust the betting market?
340 PUNCHESTOWN - ground is a concern today ( at the other extreme - good to firm - weather in Ireland has been Spanish like these last few days) - I would follow the market here and opt for 2nd favourite Elyaadi who won well at Listowel and form has been franked by 2nd in that race winning easily twice since.
1.36 to place - illiquid betting market. 9 runners and 3 places. Always a concern that , when there are 2 strong market leaders, one will falter, but is the market right in its confidence for Elyaadi?
550 PUNCHESTOWN - default bet I suppose.1.2 to place ( illiquid market which needs filling), the reason this 1/3 shot is 1.2 to place is because this is a beginners chase, and there are only 2 places. Larger obstacles for Muirhead. We would have to have faith in the betting market and the Racing Post journo's ultra confident considerations.
740 KEMPTON - alas I have to ignore the maidens in races prior to this one at Kempton but would be taken by Fallon's Circus given he is in such good riding form.
This 740 is a good ole fashioned 4 horses 2 places race, ( well 3 horses 2 places as one horse is 40/1)
1.16 to place for Seattle drive v interesting here.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
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An interesting multiple -surely Montenegro, will all their sparcity infront of goal, can get at least one against Andorra who tend to concede 3+ in each game.
All of the horse races today mentioned in the Shortlist have their relative merits but rely really on the betting market above any actual stoneclad form ( Muirhead has never run over chase fences before, Elyaadi is running in a listed race for the first time, and Nicene Creed has not jumped over hurdles in a competitive environment before)
Of these 3 I would go with Elyaadi to place as my speculative bet, Muirhead as my " follow the market and hope it is right - knowing that this is a beginners chase and there are only 2 places.
The 740 Kempton is the easiest to read. 4 horses, one at 20/1 and 2 places. 2nd fav takes over favouratism and Seattle Drive looks the one to place ( will he get beaten by 2 in a 4 horse race when 1 is actually 20/1?)
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