31/10

It's a day of debutants today, and of course we are dealing, as ever with debutants, with potential rather than any proven form. All 3 horses in the shortlist look interesting today and an argument can be made for each of these horses. Which one(s) stand out?
Wayward Prince is a proven hurdler tacking chase fences for the first time in a 7 runner race which still pays out 3 places , and with horses priced at 66/1, 25/1 and 20/1 he seems really to have only 3 main rivals. But how will he handle chase fences over 3 miles?
Mossley tackles the easier hurdles fences for the first time today in a race where only 4 are under 25/1 .Not run since June .
Amuse Me is a huge price gapper here, thanks to the defection of the 2nd and 3rd favourites. My concern is the sudden improvement in form after being spanked in last 4 races, he suddenly dots up by 7 lengths last time out. For that reason , he is 4/7 - - - - -10/1 and expected to win easily again.
I am going to chance Wayward Prince today. Yes he is a chase debutant but has shown efficiency and consistency over hurdles. What sways me today is the fact it is only 7 runners and still 3 places, so with a clear round, he should finish in the first 3 if taking to the larger obstacles.

***** ONE A DAY - 155 HUNTINGDON - Wayward Prince to place only*****


Apologies for no message yesterday as I was unable to get to a laptop as my car's fanbelt decided to break in the beauty of the Irish Country side. As I was not a member of the AA, this proved an interesting challenge for me as you can imagine. The irish countryside is beautiful, but I would prefer to explore it in a working car.

It would seem with the football that I missed all of the good opportunities. I do note that Chelsea went a goal down before winning - enhanced bet anyone?

2pm - Dinamo Kiev v Illychivets - 1.2 - tight last head to head in March this year saw 10 man illy get a draw - Dinamo Kiev were away. 3-1, 2-0, 1-0 home results in last 3 head to heads at Kiev. Away fixtures are in marked contrast 1-1, 3-4, 2-3 .
Kiev have won 6 and lost one in the league, and in last 12 ( including Europe) have won 9, drawn 1 and lost 2.
4 game winning streak so far.
WWWDWW at home in league for Kiev.
DLLLLDL away for Illychevets in league.
4pm - Omonia v Ermis - 1.17 home - DDLL in last 4 for Omonia hardly screams out backing them at 1.17 - opposition must be poor? Omonia 2/2 in head to heads in 2010 and 2009.
DLW so far in the league in their 3 home matches.
DLWLWDL so far in the league for Ermis - more unbeaten than beaten
3 1-0's, 2 2-2,s a 2-1 win and an anomolous 4-1 loss nshows that Ermis can keep things tight.
1.17 signals, usually, a 2 or 3 goal home win for omonia but their profile and recent form is poor.

145 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mount Helicon, 11/4 Original Option, 9/2 Tango Knight, 13/2 Moon Over Moscow, 20/1 King Maker.

This should be a 4 horse race for 2 places as there is a clear outsider.

155 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Wayward Prince, 5/1 Aberdale, Quentin Collonges, 9/1 Arkose, 10/1 Baddam, 12/1 Brightwell, Costa Courta, 20/1 Pheidias, 25/1 Outlaw Tom, 66/1 Ramborob.

DIOMED VERDICT: This is by no means a penalty kick for WAYWARD PRINCE, with Quentin Collonges also an interesting recruit to chasing and Aberdale expected to build on his recent debut in this sphere, but Ian Williams' Grade 1 winning hurdler still gets the nod.

Price gapper is now odds on here - how will this grade 1 winning hurdler take to the chase fences?

7 horses now and 3 places still on Betfair. Only 4 under 16/1 so it is a matter of a clear round for an obviously good jumper.

230 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mossley, 11/4 Harvest Song, 15/2 Keep Talking, 8/1 Hoback Junction, 11/1 See You Jack, 33/1 Colonel Alf, 100/1 Frankie Falco, Kilbready Star, Northwold, 150/1 Be Back In Time, Dareios, Lindengrove, Penny King, Winbury,

DIOMED VERDICT: Harvest Song is not opposed lightly after his commanding win at Fontwell but may find it hard to concede a penalty to Nicky Henderson's exciting hurdling debutant MOSSLEY.

4 only under 25/1 here in another novice hurdles event - we seem to be meeting debutants today. Mossley has the assistance of McCoy but has not been over hurdles in a racing environment. Only won a bumper ( flat race)
Probability wise, a clear round should see him in the first 3 but it is a case of "potential" rather than any real proven form.

245 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Obligation, 11/4 Banksters Bonus, 8/1 Tiz The Shot, 10/1 Printmaker, 50/1 Invincible Don.

O'Brien market leader in a listed race must always be accounted for. Tiz the shot may be a market mover.

255 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Dare To Doubt, 100/30 Model County Lass, 8/1 Knockraha Lad, 10/1 Medical Card, Tistobesure, 12/1 Derinlaur, 14/1 Ahsurelookit, Career Move, She Will Return, Waltzing Tornado, 16/1 Margie´s Man, 20/1 Evesham Star, 25/1 A Better Excuse, Chancy Lady, Foildubh, Lovely Sight, Sliabh Rua, Under The Radar, 33/1 Andrea´s Answer, Gilheany, Whitty´s Choice.

Walsh/Mullins fav here hardened into evens. Another hurdles debutant as is the case generally today.

405 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Amuse Me, 4/1 Slam, 5/1 Lean Burn, 10/1 Sonic Anthem, 14/1 Carrig An Uisce, 16/1 Chadwell Spring, 20/1 Bromhead, Chalice Welcome, Desert Mirage, Three Boars, 25/1 Mulaazem, Wicklewood, 33/1 Madman, 50/1 Simiola,

DIOMED VERDICT: AMUSE ME was an easy winner on his handicap debut at Towcester last Sunday and looks capable of defying a penalty.

2nd and 3rd favourite are non runners which enhances Amuse Me's chances. 4/7 - - - - -10/1 in the price gap in the live betting market. The price gap itself, like Quick Wit's the other day, tells us the market thinks this one will easily overcome the penalty.
McCoy onboard , I only hope he does not succumb as the others have whenever he has been chosen as a one a day bet.

SHORTLIST
It's a tough old day today. Apity yesterday was a non goer.

2pm - Dinamo Kiev v Illychivets - 1.2 - yes 1-1 last time out in head to heads but clear wins in home head to heads - 3-1, 2-0, 1-0 complemented by their home record of WWWDWWW which contrasts markedly with Illyhchevet's away record of DLLLLDL , means Dinamo are likely to win/draw. Illys odds to lay probably too high.
Slight concern with potential for a draw here

155 HUNTINGDON - Wayward Prince is a price gapper here. How will he take to chase fences? The market thinks he will be ok - 1.22 to place
Positives? high class hurdler and proven consistent jumper.
7 runner race and 3 places. Only 4 under 16/1 means that Wayward really has a good probability chance of placing with a clear round.
Negatives - as we saw with Celestial Halo on his chasing debut, these horses are meeting the bigger fences under race conditions for the first time, and one error will be punished.
Not run since April 2010.

230 HUNTINGDON - Mossley is another debutant, and is one of 4 under 25/1 here. A hurdling debutant, McCoy to assist.1.16 to place

405 HUNTINGDON - Amuse me looks to have an excellent probability chance in this race as 2nd and 3rd favourites are non runners. 4/7 - - - - 10/1 is a huge price gap as a consequence of these significant non runners.
1.24 to place is a reasonable price given 2 nearest rivals are out. McCoy for Jonjo O'Neil

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

The watch word today seems to be potential - the potential of Wayward Prince over chase fences for the first time; the potential of Mossley over hurdles for the first time after having won his bumper ( flat race)
The only horse with jumps form in the book is Amuse me, who won his handicap hurdle last time out by 7 lengths.
Analysis of last race "Even after being reassessed, he ought to win again, especially if found a similar race to this." - but there is an element of slight concern in the significant improvement to win easily by 7 lengths last time out when he was 9th, 6th and 7th, beaten 32, 49 and 49 lengths in his 3 races prior to this, the most recent on 6th October.
Was this last run an anomoly? Or the sign of a wily trainer working the handicap system?









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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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29/10

Strongest bets for me today are Bangor City at home to Bala. Strongly in form v strongly out of form. This would be my one a day but the lack of liquidity means I cannot put it up,
France u17 look strong enough and this is another out of form v in form.
Ragsah looks a great place only opportunity here in an 8 runner race for 3 places and 3 under 14/1

****ONE A DAY - 300 NEWMARKET - RAGSAH TO PLACE ONLY 1.19 available*****

I would get involved in the France game but would trade out if they take the lead at any stage, hence the reason I have not put this one up.




Quick Wit won as the price gap hinted at.

1pm - Cyprus U17 v France U17 - 1.29 away - France have only lost 3 of last 12, to Russia, Spain and England - worthy teams to lose to. They have won the rest.
Cyprus have only beaten Scotland in their last 12, and have lost their last 5 in a row. Unless I am missing something, this looks straightforward out of form v in form. IN RUNNING

630pm - Zilina v Banska Bystrica - 1.41 home - Zilina I have been getting to know since their Champions League debut and they are the dominant force in Slovakian Football.
Head to Heads 2-1 ( away Zil win), 1-1, 3-1 (Zil home win) in 2010. Likelihood is for the win .
WWWDWWD in the league for Zilina thus far.
DWDWDW at home for Zilina in the league ( latest first) is not too enticing or consistent.2 0-0 draws in their last 3 home matches is a slight cause for concern , one was before a Champions League match and one was after. A factor? JUST MATCH ODDS

WDLWDWLWDL for Banska -only lost 3
DLDLLD away from home. We see the amount of draws cropping up.
Perhaps back Zilina with a 0-0 cover?

7pm - Zwolle v Almere - 1.29 home - Almere have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 12.
WWLDWWWWDW for Zwolle. Likelihood is for the win.
WWWD at home for Zwolle ( latest first) so are on a solid home winning streak.
LWLLL away for Almere. Beat Helmond Sport 4-2 away 1st Oct and Helmond drew 2-2 with Zwolle.

Goals the neutral bet here
6,4,4,4,3 the goals scored in Zwolle's last 5 matches.
5,6,2,1,13 in Almere's last 5 league matches. Slight concern with the 2 and the 1 but the 5 and 6 most recently complements Zwolle's. 1.35 over 2.5 goals is enticing but NOT IN RUNNING.

730pm - B Munich v Freiburg - 1.31 home - last 2 head to heads have been 2-1 to BAyern, last match relied on 2 Robben goals including a penalty which hinted at a tight game? Is Robben still out?
DWLLWDDL for Bayern simply not good enough.
WDDLW for Bayern at home. Sticky patch in the middle with 2 0-0's. Back on track latest with a 3-0 v Hannover.
WWLL away for Freiburg and 4 of their last 5 scorelines have been - guess what? - yes 2-1 to tie in with the head to heads.
Goals therefore looks a safer bet including both sides. Over 1.5 goals safe , over 2.5 goals speculative and tradeable.

In 4 of last 5, opponents have scored first so 1.31 backable to trade out? 1.22 over 1.5 goals is interesting given Freiburg's propensity to score

730pm - Bangor City v Bala Town - 1.17 home - 9+ game winning streak in league for Bangor City. Bala have only won 2 of last 12.
Bangor have won 7 on the trot at home, Bala have lost 5 and drawn 1 of last 6 league aways.
Looks good for the odds and goals too, Only match odds and goals market .

815pm - Benfica v Pacos Ferreira - 1.25 home - last 6 head to heads gone Benfica's way and they have scored 3 or more in all these 6 matches. IN RUNNING
4 wins on the bounce for Benfica, but worryingly last 3 have been 1-0's so would hint at trading if they score first.
LWWW at home.
DDLW away for Pacos, and tight away too. 5 draws , 2 wins and a loss this season for Pacos hint that they are hard to beat. 2 2-2's, 2 1-1's , 2 1-0's, a 0-0 and a sole 2-1 win the scorelines for Pacos.
Does not sit well with 3 1-0 wins for Benfica in last 3 matches.

130 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kilcrea Kim, 7/2 My Boy Paddy, 6/1 Valley View, 8/1 Mic´s Delight, 16/1 Grafite, 20/1 Code Blue, Cornish Ice, Stadium Arcadium, 33/1 Melua Maid, 50/1 Roi De Garde, 66/1 Up And Away.

DIOMED VERDICT: KILCREA KIM (nap) can defy a penalty after a pleasing performance on his rules debut. Top 2 set to dominate here in a hurdle's race featuring only 4 under 20/1 - safe round should ensure Kilcrea and My Boy fight the finish. 1.17 to place Kilcrea has the edge in having a winning recent run. 235 UTTOXETER BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Foynes Island, 4/1 Corrigans Road, 11/2 Back Bob Back, 7/1 Paquet Cadeau, 14/1 Stolen Thunder, 25/1 Orlittlebylittle, 50/1 Hendaway, Sunday Sharpner, 66/1 Hot Candy, 100/1 Chaser´s War, Master Paddy. DIOMED VERDICT: Corrigans Road seems likely to improve for his new stable but FOYNES ISLAND did enough on his rules debut to suggest he can take this. Almost identical race with 4 under 16/1 and a strong market leader in Hobbs/Johnson Foynes Island HEAVY ground at Uttoxeter 300 NEWMARKET BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Ragsah, 9/4 Sharnberry, 5/1 Sweet Cecily, 16/1 Fifth Commandment, Question Times, 20/1 Dress Up, Glas Burn, 25/1 Barbieri. DIOMED VERDICT: RAGSAH finished ahead of Sharnberry and Sweet Cecily in the Cheveley Park and, although the latter pair should be rated better than the bare form, the Godolphin filly is expected to make the most of the drop in class. Sharnberry is feared most.

8 runners , 3 places, only 3 under 16/1 and a strong Godolphin market leader , now 10/11 hints at a good probability that Ragsag will place.

355 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Domtaline, 7/2 Grandouet, 9/2 Jubail, Two Kisses, 10/1 Kahfre, 12/1 Turf Trivia, 16/1 Bonfire Knight, Meetings Man, Whipperway, 28/1 Dr Finley, Maison Brillet, 40/1 Magic Millie, Maoi Chinn Tire.

DIOMED VERDICT: An above-average renewal of this Listed contest and it's a fascinating affair that includes eight previous winners, a few of them bearing all the hallmarks of being potentially smart, notably DOMTALINE who dotted up at Chepstow on his debut for Paul Nicholls.

Straight into a listed race this DOmtaline for Walsh/Nicholls, a 25 length winner on debut. Grandouet is being backed into 5/2 and the market indicates these should dominate.

SHORTLIST
1pm - Cyprus U17 v France U17 - 1.29 away - in running - out of form v in form it looks like to me.

7pm - Zwolle v Almere - 1.29 home - 1.35 over 2.5 goals is interesting but is not in running.
730pm - B Munich v Freiburg - 1.22 over 1.5 goals.
730pm - Bangor City v Bala Town - 1.17 home - huge contrast in fortunes here and a good home win expected as are goals. But illiquid market at time of writing and not in running.

130 UTTOXETER - Kilcrea Kim looks good to place here, but heavy ground a worry
235 UTTOXETER - Foynes Island too and heavy ground
300 NEWMARKET - Ragsah looks a great place only probability bet.1.19 to place


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1pm - Cyprus U17 v France U17 - 1.29 away - in running so tradeable for those who can trade.
730pm - Bangor City v Bala Town - 1.17 home - looks a rock solid bet but will the lack of liquidity be a problem. I would have this personally as my one a day, but as has happened in the past, the price would be valueless for late bettors. Available at www.bet365.com
300 NEWMARKET - Ragsah 1.19 to place.
Only 3 under 14/1
8 runners and 3 places - the minimum number of runners to allow 3 places.
4th in Group 1 on 1st October.
Has a great probability chance of placing here





--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

28/10

Headscratcher today. Do we have faith in the market and Besiktas at home at 1.16 . They have lost their last 2 home matches so surely they will not make it 3 on the bounce. Mersins are draw specialists in their league away, 7 from last 8 have been draws, but this is a sequence that should end today?
Quick Wit can go either way. The market screams out that this horse is head and shoulders above the opposition. But we have wide berth over 7 furlongs and we have 11lb rise. Still, why is the horse evens and next best 10/1??? 1.37 to place becomes very interesting but factors in the above.
The 430 Fontwell is an ideal place only race. Rith Bob is the obvious contender and , indeed, you can chance any of the 4 under 25/1 to place given the probabilities. But if choosing Rith Bob, I realise that his place only price is the same as Besiktas's so which of the 2 is most likely to come in?

*****ONE A DAY - 240 LINGFIELD - QUICK WIT TO PLACE ONLY 1.37 in places*****

The price gap is huge, but there are niggles in that he has a wide draw and 11lb rise in weights but evens - - - - -10/1 indicates he should place at least?






Easy win for Lazio yesterday.

6pm - Besiktas v Mersin Idman Yurdu - 1.16 home - Division 1 v Division 2. Besiktas have lost their last 4 including Europa League v Porto.

Last loss was a 1-0 91st minute winner for opponents, and another match was a messy 3-2 loss where both sides had a man sent off. The loss v Porto is not unexpected as Porto are the form team in Europe at the moment. Prior to these 4 losses Besiktas were flying.

Opponents in division 2 recent form DLDLD.
Asians start at +2 goals so market expects home win. Besiktas at home have lost their last 2, one in Europa League and one in the domestic league ( the 3-2).
Amazingly Mersin have drawn 7 of their last 8 matches away from home. They have drawn 5 on the trot away from home, 3 0-0's and 2 1-1's

A defensive set up away from home? How will it cope with the usually powerful Besiktas at home. And bear this in mind. Will Besiktas tolerate a 3rd consecutive defeat at home? In running.

140 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Bakoura, 3/1 Dubai Queen, 6/1 Judgement, 10/1 Deslaya, 14/1 Cinta, Poppy, Waltzing Cat, 20/1 Adorable Choice, All Honesty, Birdolini, Fakhuur, 33/1 Desert Location, 50/1 Royal Reason,

DIOMED VERDICT: DUBAI QUEEN was notably short in the betting on her debut and although she was well held on that occasion, she is sure to know much more this time.

Dubai Queen is 5/4, all red here and new fav for Fallon and Cumani, successful last night at Kempton.

You get what you get when you bet 2 year old maiden fillies!!

200 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Balzaccio, 11/4 Bai Zhu, 7/2 Kitley Hassle, 6/1 Psi, 9/1 Not So Sure Dick, 20/1 Notmorebrandy, 25/1 Daring Approach, 66/1 Open Range.

DIOMED VERDICT: BALZACCIO makes most appeal of the newcomers to chasing.

Bai Zhu is 5/4, all red and the one fancied. Sometimes in novice chases we have to take our cues from the market.

8 runners, only 5 under 40/1 here should be the ones for the 3 places.

230 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Il Portico, 4/1 Zakeeta, 8/1 Rahaala, 9/1 Royal Torbo, 10/1 Freckle Face, 11/1 Juwireya, 16/1 Joe Rua, 20/1 Claimant, Magic Spirit, Ultravox, 25/1 Brave Enough, On The Right Path, 33/1 Pursestrings, 66/1 You Mug.

DIOMED VERDICT: ILPORTICO looks the one to beat after his Kempton debut.

Only 5 under 20/1 and Il and Zak share 2/1 favouratism. The former won last time out in October and could place again.

240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Quick Wit, 8/1 Santefisio, 10/1 Den´s Gift, Seek The Fair Land, Woodcote Place, 12/1 Elna Bright, Mr Willis, Venutius, 14/1 Autumn Blades, Flipando, 16/1 Caprio, 20/1 Excellerator, Titan Triumph, 33/1 Bravo Echo.

DIOMED VERDICT: QUICK WIT looked a smart performer in the making at Nottingham on his reappearance and he can overcome his wide draw and rise in the weights.

Eyepopping price gapper here in Quick Wit
Price gap in the live betting is evens -- - - -- 10/1. And this despite an 11lb rise in the handicap!!

310 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Aspectoflove, 5/1 Mosqueras Romance, 6/1 Lady Darshaan, 8/1 Super Sleuth, 10/1 What´s Up Pussycat, 12/1 Forest Crown, 14/1 Gobama, Sarah Park, 16/1 Siyaadah, 20/1 Kameruka, 25/1 Faithful One,

DIOMED VERDICT: ASPECTOFLOVE is a smart performer on her day and is fancied to concede weight to her rivals now back in Listed company.

Class 1 listed fillies race - think Sariska if you want to know how temperamental these top class ladies can be.

Aspects is another price gapper here 6/4 - - - - -5/1 but as we know these class of races hold top quality animals who can be competitive on their day.

340 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Baila Me, 11/4 Rosika, 17/2 Lady Artemisia, 10/1 Western Pearl, 11/1 Wild Rose, 12/1 Copperbeech, Mujdeya, 14/1 Roxy Flyer, 16/1 Just Lille, Nezhenka, 20/1 Giants Play, 25/1 Some Sunny Day, 40/1 Funday, Gakalina.

DIOMED VERDICT: With her stable in such fine form this autumn, it may be worth chancing that last year's winner BAILA ME is ready to show something very close to her best back from a year off, in which case she has a class edge on these rivals. Rosika was secondlast year and may claim the same place again, ahead of Wild Rose.

Baila Me is 13/8, all red and being strongly backed for Godolphin and Dettori. BUT this one has not run since 2009, so do we take our cues from the betting market as regards well being ?
With only 2 horses under 14/1, surely 3/1 Rosika is the value play here?

Another fillies listed race.

350 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Owen Glendower, 4/1 San Remo Bello, 5/1 Timesawastin, 13/2 Renard D´Irlande, 10/1 Benarchat, 14/1 What An Oscar, 20/1 Madame Jasmine, Mister Hyde, 33/1 Beau Colonel, Cityar, Sebennytos, 100/1 Bemused, Contentwithmyluck, Kayfton Pete, Smoking

DIOMED VERDICT: OWEN GLENDOWER (nap) sets a fair standard on the form he showed in winning at Worcester. I like Barry Geraghty -he has been in great form in Ireland. He rides the now evens Owen Glendower, one of only 4 under 16/1 here and surely with a clear round he has a good place only chance. 420 STRATFORD BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tell Massini, 100/30 Triggerman, 4/1 Captive Audience, 6/1 Fredo, 10/1 Picture In The Sky, 20/1 Factotum, 33/1 No Reception. DIOMED VERDICT: Two or three of his rivals are talented enough to make it interesting but all eyes will be on TELL MASSINI.

Tell Massini at 4/7 is interesting , but as with Celestial Halo, they have to complete on their race - conditioned chase debuts.

430 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rith Bob, 3/1 Charming Lad, 4/1 Mic Aubin, 6/1 Mtpockets, 16/1 Mister Virginian, 25/1 Island News, 33/1 Seaview Lad, 66/1 Hot Chipotle.

DIOMED VERDICT: RITH BOB looks the one to beat.

A good old fashioned 8 runner race with 4 under 25/1. This makes Rith Bob a good place only horse if completing this 3 miler - not run since June.

510 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Paphos, 7/2 Cool Kitten, 6/1 Abhainn, Batchworth Blaise, 10/1 Ever Cheerful, Song Of Praise, 12/1 Mighty Aphrodite, Royal Envoy, 20/1 Cavalry Guard, 66/1 Hannah Hawk.

DIOMED VERDICT: PAPHOS has won both his previous starts over this C&D and he can make it 3-3 in a modest event.

Huge market mover in Mighty Aphrodite into 4/1 2nd fav in this poor race.

720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Scented, 4/1 Sheila´s Star, 5/1 Roi Du Boeuf, 6/1 Imaginary World, 8/1 Rather Cool, 12/1 Always De Man, 16/1 Georgina Bailey, 25/1 Senor Sassi, Will Barrow, 33/1 Adzing.

DIOMED VERDICT: SCENTED did enough in maidens at Newmarket and here to get the vote. Richard Hughes is putting a shift in today and his Scented is 4/5 - - - - -6/1 at present ( note this is an evening race) A 2 year old claimer perhaps not the ideal betting medium, but Richard Hughes on a price gapper when he's trying to win the Flat Jockey's Championship - we can be assured of 100% 850 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 An Mhi, 6/1 Royal Island, 7/1 Abydos, Active Asset, 8/1 Lunar River, Masterofceremonies, Tres Froide, 12/1 Ocean Countess, 14/1 Noche De Reyes, 16/1 All About You, 20/1 Querido, 25/1 Barodine, Richo. DIOMED VERDICT: MASTEROFCEREMONIES is well weighted and will benefit from having a professional rider back in the saddle.

Barney has backed Abydos , it seems, into 5/2 all red favourite. Another Curley gamble to swell the Christmas funds?

SHORTLIST

6pm - Besiktas v Mersin Idman Yurdu - 1.16 home - in running and a strong Besiktas side should suffice. Bear in mind they have lost the last 2 at home. Psychologically, they will not want to lose another .

Fillies and novice chases. How cruel can the betting gods be?

240 LINGFIELD - Quick Wit is the biggest price gapper of the day and should place, unless the market has severely underestimated his chances Look at the price gap evens - - - - 10/1
Yes , up 11lbs, but Dettori and Godolphin.
1.37 to place is cautious yet still appealing. It tells us there is a little trepidation regarding the rise in weights and wide draw

340 LINGFIELD - something tells me Rosika is a ready alternative to Baila Me who has not run since 2009 but is fancied today. 1.57 for Rosika to place tells us this is high class, and this is fillies!!

350 STRATFORD - Owen Glendower has Barry Geraghty to assist, recent winning form over hurdles and trip, and is only one of 4 under 16/1 so has a reasonable place only chance? 1.2 to place as I write.

430 FONTWELL - I see these as ideal place only races. Why? 8 runners and 3 places ( 8 is the minimum number of runners that pay out 3 places.) Only 4 horses are under 25/1, and barring falls etc, should be the ones fighting out the 3 places. Odds on fav Rith Bob becomes the logical choice to place. 1.15 to place

720 WOLVES - Scented is a "circumstances" bet - i.e. we have a jockey battling for the Championship on a strong favourite. So, despite this being a 2 year old claimer, Scented should be a good place only bet.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Besiktas v Mersin Idman Yurdu - 1.16 home - I was just mentioning " circumstances" above. Surely it is inconcievable for Besiktas to lose a 3rd home match on the trot, especially when they have a chance to end that losing sequence against lower league opponents. Mersin do draw, and have drawn 7 of last 8, but will Besiktas be too much for them?

240 LINGFIELD - Quick Wit must be included as the most striking price gapper of the day. 1.37 to place is a bet based on him overcoming his draw and 11lb rise in weights. The analyst of his last race mentioned he is far better than a class 4 handicapper.
Dettori to help makes this a good candidate.
We know the risks/negatives but will quality out and will this price gap be accurate?

430 FONTWELL - quite simply the perfect place only race. 8 runners and 3 places. 4 are under 25/1 and there is an odds on fav in Rith Bob.

720 WOLVES - we need to see the market nearer the off but expect Hughes to near the gap to Hanigan on a well fancied fav?

27/10

Horse racing wise, Fremen to place should have an excellent chance in a seller which should be dominated by Fremen and Opus Maximus ( latter value bet) - 240 MUSS sees only 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1 who should ideally fight out the places.

240 NOTTINGHAM I would risk Academy but with trading in mind in running.

Football wise, and my strongest bets would be Twente, Lazio , Anderlecht and PSV with the Greek sides away obvious contenders for enhanced goals bets to me
Anderlecht not in running, and of the 3 left Lazio looks the strongest bet with home advantage. But will they play a first team? Twente looks the next best against a side yet to win this season. PSV look next best against a side who lost 4-1 last twice.

*****ONE A DAY 8pm - Lazio v Portogruaro - back Lazio in the match odds at 1.29*****

Horse racing alternative? Fremen to place in a race where only 3 are under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1






87th minute equaliser made a losing bet but a winning trading bet.

Soccer > FC Timisoara v Vointa Sibiu : Match Odds Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections Selection Odds Stake(€) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(€) FC Timisoara 1.21 125.00 Back 26-Oct-10 16:30 -125.00 FC Timisoara 1.10 137.50 Lay 26-Oct-10 17:28 137.50 *Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: -125.00 Lay subtotal: 137.50 Market subtotal: 12.50 Commission @ 4.64%: 0.58 Net Market Total: 11.92

A pity I did not insist upon trading this. I traded out with marginal gain as early as possible. It is just a habit I have. I do hope some did trade out, as there was ample time to do so .
Whenever I mention " in running" in a football match, it is deliberate, because we can manage our positions. Yesterday, 1-0 for a concerted period for a 1.18 shot should have been a worry particularly as they were at home.1.18 shots should win by 2 or 3.
A losing bet all the same and a great frustration.


230pm - Varde v AGF - 1.36 away - just mention AGF as I have been incidentally following them,Denmark 2 Division west v Denmark 1 Division. AGF are flying in the latter division. IN RUNNING - I do not know whether a weakened side will be played etc so we are really betting blind and putting faith in the odds.
3pm - Kozani v Panathinaikos - 1.12 away - IN RUNNING - Greek Ethniki C v top flight and 1.12 indicates goals. But Pana have only scored 2 in their last 3 in the league. Greeks and goals do not generally fit together. That said, the gulf in class could change this?
Asian handicap starts at 2 and over 2.5 goals is a healthy 1.64 ( they know it's the Greeks I suppose) - could be scope to trade this 1.64 as Pana should score at least 2 with a first team
3pm - Partizan Belgrade v FK Proleter - 1.13 home - just match odds available and illiquid betting market.
4pm - Hajduk Split v Istra - 1.24 home - another just match odds and an illiquid market
4pm - Portugal U17 v N Ireland U17 - 1.34 home - 3,2,5,7,2 the number of goals scored in Portugal's last 5 matches. Not in running. Northern Ireland beat Azerbaijan 6-0 -Portugal beat them 2-0 so Northern Ireland could score.
6pm - Ajax v Heerenveen - 1.25 home -LEAGUE MATCH IN RUNNING - Ajax have won the last 2 head to heads, but lost the 2 prior to those in 2009. 4 wins and a loss at home this season for Ajax. Slight concern with 2 of last 3 results - 2-1 home to Utrecht loss and 2-2 draw away at Excelsior ( with the latter were 2-0 down and a man down too)
Priced to win tonight. DDLL away for Heerenveen this season. 0-0 draw away to Twente signals potential to shut Ajax out, but then lost 3-1 to PSV at home, and the odds suggest the latter scoreline is the more expected.
Are Ajax faltering with a loss and draw in their last 3? They were superb last season.
6pm - Ilioupolis v Olympiakos - 1.13 away - Greek Cup IN RUNNING - +2.5 goals asian handicap start. Over 2.5 goals at 1.56 ( illiquid market) again scope for trading if we can trust the odds, the asian quote, and Oly putting out a strong side.
630pm - Gent v Tienen - 1.22 home - Belgian Cup not in running.Both teams in poor recent form.
7pm - FC Copenhagen v AC Horsens - 1.28 home - not in running. Danish Cup match - Copenhagen have won the last 4 head to heads. 2 division 1 sides -can we trust team selection?
7pm - UD Logrones v Valencia - 1.49 away - a big price if Valencia take this with a semblance of interest. Segunda B Grupo 2 v leading lights in La Liga. Markets envision a tight match, and that can only mean Valencia will be fielding a weakened side. IN RUNNING.
7pm - Willem II v Twente - 1.33 away - home side have lost 9 and drawn 1 this season in the league. IN RUNNING - Have lost all 4 at home. 3,8,3,3,2,6,3,0,6,3 the number of goals in each of Willem's matches this season. Only once none, and only twice under 3.
DWWDW for Twente away from home. Unbeaten all season. 2 0-0's and a 1-0 away from home might signal a problem with goal scoring but 3-0 and 2-1 away in 2 other matches prove they can when they want to. Tempting odds given Willem II have been woeful and Twente would want to continue this unbeaten run this season.Along with PSV, they are the only unbeaten side this season.
730pm - URS du Centre v Anderlecht - 1.2 away - not in running- reputation should signal an easy away win in this Belgian Cup.
745pm - Standard v Antwerp - 1.2 home - Belgian Cup again.
8pm - Lazio v Portogruaro - 1.29 home - won 6 and drawn 1 of last 7 against Seria B side who have lost 4 of last 5 - in running and good chance if Cup is of interest for Lazio.
8pm - Vitesse v PSV - 1.42 away - WLDDL for Vitesse at home - lost 4-1 in last 2 matches ( home and away) and should be within reach of PSV. Unbeaten this season with 7 wins and 3 draws.
WDDW away from home for PSV. Coming off the back of a 10-0 mauling of Feyenoord last time out.
PSV have scored 10-4-3 in their last 3 matches. A bad time for Vitesse to meet them and the 1.42 tempting with trading in mind.

200 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Parlour Games, 7/2 Ittirad, 5/1 Sea Soldier, 11/2 Conjuror´s Bluff, 10/1 Spifer, 14/1 Lordofthehouse, Romeo Montague, 16/1 Albert Bridge, Benidorm, Szabo´s Destiny, 40/1 Emerald Royal, Ishikawa.

DIOMED VERDICT: PARLOUR GAMES was a major flop last time but conditions were extremely testing. On his previous debut second in a Yarmouth maiden, he sets a clear standard.

Sea Soldier is 9/4, all red, and obviously fancied today.

230 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Academy, 5/1 Midlothian, 13/2 Charles Camoin, 9/1 Wayward Glance, 16/1 High Jinx, 25/1 Secret Edge, 28/1 Bollin Harry, 33/1 Invent, 50/1 Look For Love, 66/1 Newgate Dani, 100/1 Our Folly,

DIOMED VERDICT: Seemingly a straightforward opportunity for ACADEMY to fulfil the abundant promise of last month's Newmarket debut, though the odds are highly likely to be on the skinny side.

Always a positive when the odds have collapsed to 1/4. Charles Camoin would be my value place only alternative to the obvious Academy. A 2 year old maiden. Ryan Moore was on a similarly priced 2 year old yesterday and brought him home.

240 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fremen, 7/2 Abbondanza, Opus Maximus, 7/1 Ensnare, 14/1 Kimberley Downs, King Of The Moors, Ra Junior, 33/1 Beverly Hill Billy, Finsbury, Rosbertini, Walleyd, 100/1 Anna´s Boy, Balance On Time.

DIOMED VERDICT: FREMEN (nap) is a prolific winner in this type of event and can notch his fifth C&D win of the year.

4th fav a non runner exaggerates the difference between the front 3 and the rest. Only 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 20/1. Trust Fremen? Ultra consistent placer.

450 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Colour Scheme, 11/4 Point North, 4/1 Chiefdom Prince, 12/1 Fama Mac, 16/1 Handsome King, Penbryn, 20/1 Yensi, 25/1 Amy Thorpe, Drivemode, 33/1 Great Show, Saremma, 40/1 Rustic Deacon, 66/1 Spacecraft.

DIOMED VERDICT: POINT NORTH can take this.

Another maiden and the front 3 cannot be split. All 2/1 Choose the biggest priced in the place market and hope they dominate..

810 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wallis, 5/1 Millden, 6/1 Estonia, Hippique, 10/1 Hidden Destiny, Ruler´s Honour, 16/1 Jubilant Lady, 20/1 Ice Road Trucker, Outshine, 25/1 Cane Cat, 33/1 Dolly Will Do,

DIOMED VERDICT: MILLDEN is bred to be a useful sprinter and gets the nod in a modest maiden.

Fallon /Cumani odds on fav in this maiden has Kempton experience.



SHORTLIST
3pm - Kozani v Panathinaikos - 1.12 away
6pm - Ilioupolis v Olympiakos - 1.13 away
7pm - UD Logrones v Valencia - 1.49 away - flying in the league - a strong team will make this price very tempting but I have no team news now.
7pm - Willem II v Twente - 1.33 away
730pm - URS du Centre v Anderlecht - 1.2 away - anything near a first team and free scoring Anderlecht will win easily. NOT IN RUNNING
8pm - Lazio v Portogruaro - 1.29 home - in form Seria A at home v out of for Seria B - good odds.
8pm - Vitesse v PSV - 1.42 away - tradeable price given PSV have scored 10-4-3 in last 3 and Vitesse have lost 4-1 in last 2.

230 NOTTINGHAM - Academy would have to be a win only bet at 1.27 with Ryan Moore on board. Charles Camoin at 1.76 to place is very interesting - a market mover too and value place bet.

240 MUSS - can Fremen continue his strong form? 1.2 to place

810 KEMPTON - need a look nearer the off.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Kozani v Panathinaikos - 1.12 away
6pm - Ilioupolis v Olympiakos - 1.13 away
7pm - Willem II v Twente - 1.33 away - Willem II just keep losing and are playing title contenders today.
730pm - URS du Centre v Anderlecht - 1.2 away - although not in running, Anderlecht dominate in Belgium and should win this Cup match.
8pm - Lazio v Portogruaro - 1.29 home - looks a great bet this one with a strong Lazio team selected - in form Seria A v out of form Seria B.
8pm - Vitesse v PSV - 1.42 away - conceded 8 in last 2 v scored 17 in last 3 ( 10 in last match)

230 NOTT - Academy to win only - always risky backing 2 year olds but a carbon copy of a horse Ryan Moore booted home yesterday in heavy.

240 MUSS- Fremen and Opus Maximus should dominate ( latter Fanning/Johnston)
1.2 and 1.39 to place

Possible multiple

6 Selections Chosen 1 Kozani v Panathinaikos (Backing Panathinaikos @ 1.09) 2 Ajax v Heerenveen (Laying Heerenveen @ 17.11) 3 Ilioupolis v Olympiakos (Backing Olympiakos @ 1.1) 4 Willem II v Twente (Laying Willem II @ 15.11) 5 Lazio v Portogruaro (Laying Portogruaro @ 20.98) 6 UD Logrones v Valencia (Laying UD Logrones @ 9.37)

6-Folds Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 1.62 €100.00 €62.00 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake: €100.00 Your total potential win: €62.00

--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
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Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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Romford, RM6 5SS

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Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

26/10

Heavy at Yarmouth. A pity so many good bets yesterday. I will stick with football today I think in the hope it offers a more solid opportunity to bag the one a day than horse racing .

*****ONE A DAY - 430pm - FC Timisoara v Vointa Sibiu - back FC Timisoara at 1.18 - £4k waiting to lay at 1.17 should provide liquidity ( and might be a sign of insider info but I will have faith in the odds and home advantage)*****


Job done for Porto. Wales showed why I prefer in running football 1-0 up then Kazaks equalised.

Yesterday was one of those days with great opportunities, largely because it was a bank holiday in Ireland.

Famous Name the horse to take out of yesterday. Drifted to 5/4 and trounced a group 3 field by 7 lengths. Shows personal faith over the market !

430pm - FC Timisoara v Vointa Sibiu - 1.18 home - Division 1 v Division 2 B in this Romanian Cup match. Timosoara's only losses in last 12 were against Man City in Europa League.
Vointa similarly unbeaten in last 12.
Timo just coming off the back of DWWWWW (latest first) £4K waiting to lay at 1.17 means liquid enough at present.
5pm - Senec v Zilina - 1.31 away - Slovak Cup - Zilina's only losses have been in Champions League and European competition in last 12. Division 2 v Division 1. Clearly Zilina are the dominant force in Slovak football at present.
530pm - Admira Wacker v First Vienna - 1.25 home -Austrian Division 2 - 3,3,4,2 the goals admira have scored against First Vienna in last 4 head to heads in 2009 and 2010.
IN RUNNING .
LWWWWDWWW in the league ( latest first) Lost away from home last time out after scoring first, so with trading in mind, and home advantage, Back Admira and lay off if they score first?
3,3,3,3,2,5,1,scored in last 7 at home. Ultra consistent recently.
Won 11 and drawn 1 at home.
7,6,1,5,5,2,4,2,4,4 the number of goals in First Vienna's league matches recently. 7/10 are over 3.5 goals.
LLWLWLLDLL in league in last 10 matches. Only 2 wins.
First Vienna have lost their last 6 away matches in the league.
7pm - Dinamo Bucharest v Alro Statina - 1.17 home - in running Romanian Cup sees Division 1 v Division 2 B - trust the market?
WWLLLDL (latest first) -back on the winning thread in the league and should gain a confidence boosting win at home ( remember same odds as Porto yesterday!)
7pm - Murcia v Real Madrid - 1.22 away - Champions League the reason Special One is at Madrid. Will they take this Cup match seriously? Watch out for changes. Remember Alcorcon!!
Both sides have not lost any of their last 12 matches but one is a Division 3 (Segundo B Grupo 4) team and the other we know all too well.
Team news the key to determining whether to pile in. Head to heads historically tight (1-0, 1-1, 2-1 (Murcia), 1-0) but last one was 2008. So a word of warning.
730pm - KV Kortrijk v Excelsior Virton - 1.31 home - not for me - big gulf in leagues but a home side in poor form and 0-0 in last cup head to head with this lot.
730pm - San Marino U17 v Latvia U17 - 1.16 away - San Marino lost last 12 but much improved to hold Ukraine 1-0 ( but then spanked 6-0 by Holland) Latvia kept Holland to 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Ukraine - expect them to win eventually perhaps?
8pm - Man Utd v Wolves - 1.39 home - no distractions for Mick surely? Premiership survival is all that matters? IN RUNNING - team news vital.
9pm - Ceuta v Barcelona - 1.27 away - likely changes but when you can bring in people like Jeffren and Pedro upfront, it hardly weakens the side. Again team news important to gauge whether this 1.27 is value.Segunda B Gruop 4 v Barca. Team news important of course.

130 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Long Awaited, 2/1 Above All, 4/1 First Mohican, 14/1 Tidal Star, 20/1 Twinkled, 50/1 Orthodox Lad, 66/1 Ace Master, Any Odds.

DIOMED VERDICT: Not much strength in depth and LONG AWAITED can get off the mark at the expense of Above All.

2 year olds and heavy ground not ideal mixture. But the market screams out only 3 of interest under 25/1 - trust the market?

215 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Perfect Smile, 9/2 Ross Na Righ, 5/1 Crom Abu, 10/1 Wise Oscar, 12/1 Luddsdenene, 14/1 Epic Hero, Monroe Park, 20/1 Ten Pinhal, 25/1 Hold Your Breath, 50/1 Audrelles Dream, Mister Jim Jim.

Price gappers Famous Name, Jovial and Apt Manor all won yesterday. Perfect smile not run since a maiden hurdle fall in Jan 2010, but 1/2 in places and the admirable Paul Carberry rides.

230 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Sea Moon, 6/1 Raw Spirit, 15/2 Durante Alighieri, Little Rocky, 8/1 Maharana, 20/1 Aussie Dollar, Hawawi, 33/1 Border Abby, Flying Power, 40/1 Final Liberation, 50/1 Generous Pursuit, 66/1 Strangelittlegirl, 100/1 Easydoesit, If What And Maybe,

DIOMED VERDICT: The beautifully bred SEA MOON, who is closely related to the dam of Workforce, went into the notebook as a surefire maiden winner following his narrow defeat at Leicester. Trust the market or realise this is a 2 year old one time outer tackling heavy ground for the first time. "surefire future winner" ran on good to soft last time. 240 TAUNTON BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Organisateur, 7/1 Classically, 8/1 Tignello, 12/1 Magroom, 16/1 Ballinteni, 20/1 We´Re Delighted, 25/1 Bari Bay, 33/1 Jumpjack Flint, Spinning Waters, 40/1 Aureate, Operachy, 66/1 Stellar Cause, 100/1 General Sam, Lethal Gun. DIOMED VERDICT: ORGANISATEUR stands out on form, even though he has to concede weight all round.

Another huge price gapper for Nicholls. Has experience but Ruby must be in Ireland.

300 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Franki J, 3/1 No Complaining, 13/2 Broctune Papa Gio, 8/1 Via Aurelia, 10/1 House Point, Tsar Bomba, 12/1 Zarius, 16/1 Miss Blink, 20/1 Miss Kitty Grey, 25/1 Far View, Reddy To Star, 28/1 Dudley, Thewinnatakesitall, 33/1 Book Smart.

DIOMED VERDICT: FRANKI J (nap) has a convincing chance on paper given she's 2-2 at Yarmouth and ahead of the handicapper turned out under a penalty following her wide-margin success last Tuesday. No Complaining is also interesting.

In the return of the class 6 0-60 handicap price gapper yesterday, Jovial won well. Here Franki J is 6/4 and all red in the live market, with next best at 5/1. Not strictly a price gapper ( in the betting forecast) but fancied today . Worry about heavy ground but won in soft and 2 from 2 at Yarmouth

415 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Maggie Connolly, 5/1 Lean Times, 6/1 Henro Boy, Raz De Maree, 8/1 Zagman, 10/1 Spruce Cottage, 12/1 Ferris Bueller, 14/1 De Bartishell, 20/1 Coole Presenting, Indubitably, 25/1 Baraka Boy, Day Dream Boy, Sister Steve.

Walsh/Mullins on the fav - normal service resumed?
Big move for Henro Boy in this maiden hurdle, into 5/2 and all red.

SHORTLIST
430pm - FC Timisoara v Vointa Sibiu - 1.18 home - betting blind - no team news so trust the odds?
5pm - Senec v Zilina - 1.31 away - dominant SLovak team away in the Cup - again no team news.
530pm - Admira Wacker v First Vienna - 1.25 home - league match and in running. All points to a home win, or safer goals bet to include both sides? 1.12 over 1.5 goals short enough.
7pm - Dinamo Bucharest v Alro Statina - 1.17 home - 2/2 in last 2 matches for Dinamo and priced to continue today - again betting in the Cup without team news.
7pm - Murcia v Real Madrid - 1.22 away - logic dictates an away win - likely a weakened side
730pm - San Marino U17 v Latvia U17 - 1.16 away - San Marino simply don't win
9pm - Ceuta v Barcelona - 1.27 away - team news vital as ever in all Cup matches,

Heavy ground at Yarmouth leads me to leave it alone
240 TAUNTON - Organisateur should place - 1.11

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
430pm - FC Timisoara v Vointa Sibiu - 1.18 home - faith in the market. And at home -that should count for something.
530pm - Admira Wacker v First Vienna - 1.25 home -all of the form and head to heads points to a home win.
730pm - San Marino U17 v Latvia U17 - 1.16 away - San Marino do not win!

Barca and Real Madrid should, logically, win, but generally these matches tend to be tight affairs. Team news will determine confidence in the sides. Instinct tells me that Barca have the better reserve side than Real.






--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

------------

Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

25/10

Best horse bet for me today would be 455 Leopardstown and Famous Name to place. But I think the safest bet ( well the one more likely to come in), involves Porto this evening.

*****ONE A DAY - 815pm - Porto v Leiria - Back Porto in the win only market at 1.18.*****

Enhance odds with over 2.5 goals bet to trade given home scorelines this season and head to heads.

Wales also should be Borat's Boys this afternoon, and FAmous Name should be very competitive at Leopardstown.




Good win for AZ.

Good to look at the football still as we have horses returning from lengthy layoffs, a number of novice hurdle events ( L plates on) and hurdlers starting chasing for the first time ( ask Celestial Halo why these are difficult races to weigh up)

130pm - Hungary U19 v Moldova U19 - 1.44 home - 3 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses for Moldova in their last 12 matches. Interestingly in 2009 beat Poland 1-0 which is standout.Other wins cam against LUxembourg ( expected?) and Belarus, where 2 days later they lost 3-1 to the same team!
LWLWLDWD in Hungary's last 8 matches. Inconsistent or just playing better sides? Last 4 losses have all been 1 goal margins and against the likes of Portugal, Russia and latest Israel who only went down 1-0 to Spain.
Clearly those who defeat Hungary are better than Moldova.
5pm - Wales U19 v Kazakhstan U19 - 1.25 home - 2007 head to head 2-1 win for Borat's Boys at home. I mentioned the Kazaks against Turkey who won 5-1. That was a strong bet, if you'll remember.
AS mentioned before, a sole win against Andorra 2-1 ( when Andorra scored first!) is hardly compelling for the Kazaks.
WDW last 3 for Wales includes 3-3 against said Turks (albeit 2 93rd and 95th minute goals for Wales)
Lots of collateral form where teams spank the Kazaks and lose to Wales. Should be a home win.
6pm - Brann v Kongsvinger - 1.41 home - Norwegian top flight. Brann have only won 3 of their last 12. They have lost 3 of their last 4 and this looks a case of the best of a bad bunch here , as Kongs have only won 1 of their last 12 and lost 3 of their last 4. A game to avoid I suspect.
630pm - Steaua Bucharest v Pandurii - 1.34 home - 3 1-0's, 2 0-0's and a sole 2-0 in last 6 head to heads mirrors Shaktar's recent head to heads when similarly priced and ended up 1-0.
Could Pandurii just be a bogey team?
Last league win for Steaua was 12 matches ago. They seem to have been affected by Europa League. This seems a match wherer the 1.34 is layable as the upside is infinite and the downside de minimis.
815pm - Porto v Leiria - 1.18 home - one of the most in form teams in Europe currently must surely be backed while in such rude health?
Won 11 and drawn 1 of their last 12 in all competitions includes the Europa league. Leira have an interesting list of away scorelines - 1-0 loss, 1-0 loss and 0-0 so far. BUT they have not played Braga, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica or, of course, Porto so we cannot offer these tight away scorelines as a projection of what might happen tonight.
12/12 at home for Porto.
3,3,2 scored so far at home for Porto, and like Chelsea they have yet to concede. Leira are yet to score away from home so the inference is that if Porto score first, they should win.
1.18 indicates this is likely to mirror their other scorelines at home, 2-0, or 3-0.

Now, we must remember sequences always end. A huge winning sequence at home for Porto will end at some time. It must. They simply will not keep winning at home. But today? at 1.18? Against a team yet to score away? I think we might be safe for another day.
4 and 3 goals scored by Porto in 2010 head to heads backs up the odds. Looks a good one a day.

Heavy ground at Leicester today should be avoided unless it throws up a probability race.

220 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Top Care, 7/4 Suddenly Susan, 4/1 Little Miss Take, 12/1 Munro´s Dragon, 20/1 Warrant, 25/1 X Rated, 33/1 Devon Delight, Pinotage, Voovoo.

DIOMED VERDICT: The surface is an unknown quantity for all of these, and there are also question marks about the stamina of TOP CARE. However, his form is better than that of fillies Little Miss Take and Suddenly Susan, and his stable has always done well with its juveniles here.

FAnning/Johnston favs always interest me but this is a 2 year old nursery seeing 2 year olds on the unique Southwell surface for the first time.

225 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dubai Prince, 4/1 Warning Flag, 7/1 Park Avenue, 10/1 Ruling, 14/1 Oor Jock, Petronius Maximus, 20/1 Obligada, 50/1 Catalpa Sail.

Effectively Weld (3 horses) v O'Brien ( 3 horses) , and intriguingly, J Murtagh, O'Brien number 1, is riding for Wachman on Warning Flag.
An intriguing race!.
From a betting perspective, only 3 under 14/1 here should be the ones to focus on for the places , that is, Dubai Prince ( 1/2 in places), Warning flag (Murtagh onboard) and Ruling (slight move for Aiden O'Brien and Jamie Heffernan.
This is one of those races where an O'Brien big priced horse might surprise?

1.16 for Dubai Price to place
240 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Zain Shamardal, 9/2 Splash Point, 5/1 Jaridh, 6/1 Laajooj, 8/1 Dysios, 9/1 Deny, 10/1 Sultah, 14/1 Failasoof, 16/1 Ebtihaj, 20/1 Distinguish, 25/1 Archelao, Rockerfellow.

DIOMED VERDICT: Zain Shamardal has claims if back near debut form but SPLASH POINT is narrowly preferred to another Godolphin runner Jaridh.

Market mover in Laajooj, a debutant into all red 5/4. Obviously fancied on debut - take it or leave it as we have no form to work with.

300 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Peligroso, 5/1 Via Galilei, 15/2 Dakiyah, 20/1 Nodforms Violet.

DIOMED VERDICT: PELIGROSO sets a clear standard and should be able to provide his yard with a third success in this race in the last four years Heavy ground and a Godolphin short priced favourite who has never run on heavy ground. 305 GALWAY BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Apt Manor, 4/1 Revelling, 6/1 Style Of Campile, 10/1 Newmarket Story, Strike An Ark, 12/1 Frutti Tutti, Three Monkeys, 16/1 Elles Bessy, Thats Our Luck, 20/1 Golden What, Notdisbutdat, Whatdouthink, 33/1 Andrea´s Answer, Gilheany, Home By The Brook, Labasheeda. Bank holiday in Ireland hence races at Galway. You will remember Apt Manor mentioned last 3 times he has run. In this maiden hurdle, Ruby is onboard again and he is a strong market leader. 2212 in bumpers and 2nd in sole maiden hurdle race augurs well for today ( 2nd of 20 that time and another big field this time) 410 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Willow Dancer, 9/2 Duplicity, 5/1 Edgewater, 6/1 Charlie Smirke, 8/1 Mustakmil, 10/1 Prince Of Thebes, 12/1 Gallantry, Mishrif, 14/1 Lisahane Bog, 20/1 Dinner Date. DIOMED VERDICT: WILLOW DANCER deserves a break after three solid efforts on the spin and his draw is useful for one who likes to be up there. Duplicity is all red and 3/1 455 LEOPARDSTOWN BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Famous Name, 7/1 Priomhbhean, 8/1 You´ll Be Mine, 10/1 Barring Decree, Riynaaz, 12/1 Choose Me, Ezalli, 14/1 Devoted To You, 16/1 Icon Dream, Rain Forest, 25/1 Harriers Call, 50/1 Celtic Soprano, 66/1 Good Time Sue, 100/1 Silver Tide. Huge price gapper today , this Famous Name. Do not be put off by the 6 and 7 last 2 races as he was tackling Group 1 company 510 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Jovial, 11/2 Belle Boleyn, 15/2 Captain Cool, 8/1 Wasara, 10/1 Empress Leizu, Miss Whippy, 14/1 Belle Zorro, Lalika, Motirani, 16/1 Jewellery, 20/1 Eurasian, 25/1 Charpoy Cobra, 33/1 Pictures, 66/1 Bonamassa. DIOMED VERDICT: JOVIAL escapes a penalty for his 5l Lingfield win and should be very hard to beat.

A welcome return to the price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap.
This jovial has all weather experience and is strongly fancied in the market ( 5/4 - - - - - 8/1)
Remember the type of race - 0-60 horses are not especially consistent but , escaping a penalty and with all weather experience, hopefully we can expect a good run from Jovial.

SHORTLIST
5pm - Wales U19 v Kazakhstan U19 - 1.25 home - I think there is enough collateral form to say that Wales are the better side here and should justify the odds IF previous form is reflected today.

815pm - Porto v Leiria - 1.18 home - sequences always end, but will Porto's winning sequence at home end today against a side they scored 4 and 3 against already in 2 2010 matches? A team who have failed to score away from home in 3 this season? Looks rock solid.

225 LEOPARDSTOWN - intriguing race with Dubai Prince the odds on fav at 1.16 to place. Weld v O'Brien pretty much. Dubai Prince's form has been franked for any form students out there.

300 LEICESTER - it would seem, on closer inspection, that Peligrosso is a heavy ground winner, so at 1/3 should be trusted for Frankie?
1.12 to place in a 50/50 race

455 LEOPARDSTOWN - Famous Name is ultra consistent in this grade and should place at the very least.
1.27 ( only a tenner) in a very illiquid market .

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
815pm - Porto v Leiria - 1.18 home - profiled to continue exceptional home winning sequence this evening against a side they scored 3 and 4 against in 2 2010 head to heads.

300 LEICESTER - heavy ground victor already? And 1/3 here so should run well this Peligrosso? 1.12 o place

455 LEOPARDSTOWN - exceptional consistent flat performer in Ireland for Weld/Smullen should place again.







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