26/12

1225 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Rebel Melody, 9/4 Commander Vic, 7/2 Mortimers Cross, 8/1 Standandbecounted, 16/1 Hello My Lovely, 20/1 El Batal, 33/1 Dad´s Army, Orchard King, Silver Feather, 66/1 Best Deal, Clande Boye, 100/1 Go Gunner, Red Sea Raven .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MORTIMERS CROSS didn't beat a lot at Uttoxeter but he was impressive enough and was always likely to improve for a good test of stamina, so could be up to defying a penalty.[GW]

Small mention for El Batal here, currentyly 15/2 ( look at betting forecast price) - possible each way option and Mattie BAtchelor on board

155 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Harchibald, 5/1 Punjabi, 11/2 Straw Bear, 12/1 Acambo, 14/1 Gwanako, 20/1 Penzance .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No guaranteed pacesetter, though Gwanako led in some of his races in France and wouldn't want a dawdle dropped back to 2m. HARCHIBALD stands out, looking back to his formidable best when winning the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle last time and being by some way the best horse in this field. The winner of this in 2004, despite being set a great deal to do when reeling in runaway leader Rooster Booster, Harchibald is a confident choice to score again

"a confident choice" - it all points to Harchibald here

230 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Kauto Star, 5/1 Exotic Dancer, 7/1 My Way De Solzen, Taranis, 9/1 Racing Demon, 14/1 Our Vic, 66/1 Hi Cloy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KAUTO STAR (nap) is a confident choice, being by some way the best horse in the field. Although old rival Exotic Dancer got closer to the idling winner than he ever has at Haydock last time, the selection has come out in front in all four of their previous meetings and is clearly superior. Exotic Dancer is much the most persuasive of the opposition but with all due respect to him, the main question for backers is whether Kauto Star can manage to get round without serious mishap and there is a very strong chance that he will, with this small field in his favour and having jumped soundly for the most part last time. Our Vic is best of those at bigger odds and may be third best

Surely exoctic dancer each way is the value bet given the close proximity at the line last time out?

115 MARKET RASEN

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ronald Jack, 3/1 Bouncing King, 4/1 Raining Horse, 5/1 Kitty Wong, 12/1 Custom Design, Lord Collingwood, 20/1 Hot Lips Page, Tirol Livit, 33/1 Supreme Leisure ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these can be considered but preference is for KITTY WONG, beaten a long way last month but surely capable of playing a leading part over this trip.[JN]

Bouncing King for me here - 4 in with a shout - again bias towards the place only with a little on the win

1235 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cash Man, 3/1 Senora Snoopy, 4/1 Hue, 5/1 Osolomio, 10/1 Ignotus, 14/1 The Snurglar, 25/1 Lucius Rufo, 33/1 Lady Delilah, 66/1 Cheers Thank You, Gnillish, 100/1 Habanus Livius, Henbeck Lady, Oscar Trial, 200/1 Longy The Lash .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Senora Snoopy yet to race on ground this quick and Hue having a double penalty to shoulder, this may be best left to CASH MAN. A winner over 2m4f on quick ground at Hexham, he shaped well on his handicap debut over an inadequate trip but the return to this distance will be in his favour. Fair Flat handicapper Osolomio is one to keep an eye on for this hurdle debut.[RY]

The Snurglar is a speculative each way choice given the huge prices of the vast majority of the field

105 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Presumptuous, 7/2 Stagecoach Opal, 6/1 King Daniel, Monolith, 10/1 Aitch Doubleyou, Top Cloud, 14/1 Ballyhale, The Gleaner, 33/1 Black Rainbow, Jeringa, 66/1 Callingwood, 100/1 Noquina .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Presumptuous is the pick of those with chasing experience but his jumping has been very sketchy and he'll have to brush up in that department before he's one to lump on at skinny odds. Stable-companion Stagecoach Opal also has claims but he's not been out for a while and this could go to MONOLITH, a useful hurdler at best who has conditions to suit for this chasing debut.[RY]

Monolith is the one for early support - again each way

245 SEDG

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Stormy Beech, 7/2 Media Man, 9/2 Malt De Vergy, Whatcanyasay, 7/1 The Nomad, 10/1 Nabir, 20/1 Third Empire, 25/1 Ton-Chee, 33/1 Red Dawn .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of these can make the running and the race should suit STORMY BEECH better than the one in which he finished a respectable third at Catterick last time. He goes on most ground and is fancied to beat Malt De Vergy, who has fair prospects but hangs right and has yet to win over obstacles.[RY]

A handicap chase and I doubt the first 3 home will be the first 3 in the betting forecast - so Whatcanyasay each way for me

1250 TOWCESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Package, 5/2 Tot O´Whiskey, 4/1 Pop, 7/1 King Jack, 20/1 Can´t Buy Time, Freddie The Third, 25/1 Rathcor, 33/1 Pacco, Tank Top, 50/1 Millitant Man, Porta Vogie, The Walnut Tree, 66/1 Hinton Thunderbolt, Mr Merlot, Tarabaloo .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE PACKAGE went off pretty quickly and did well to maintain the gallop at Newbury. The merit of the form is debatable but the same can be said of the credentials of his principal rivals Tot O'Whiskey and Pop. Pop may prove the main threat in receipt of 10lb from the other pair

Kiung Jack and Pop eachway again following the logic that I don't think this is a 2 horse race

100 Wetherby

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Breaking Shadow, 6/1 Hall Of Fame, Stellenbosch, 10/1 Terenzium, 12/1 Red Wine, 14/1 Ela Re, Go Figure, 16/1 Macchiato, 20/1 Balyan, Little Bob, Namroud, Slavonic Lake, 25/1 Speed Venture, 33/1 Cottam Grange, Goldan Jess, Mr Midaz, Springvic .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Doubts about a good deal of these and a clear-cut chance for BREAKING SHADOW to complete his hat-trick, going unpenalised for last week's Bangor success. Stellenbosch and Hall Of Fame may give him most to do.

" a clear cut chance"? for BReaking shadow - at 2/1 I suppose he's worth a punt , personal preference for place only given he's a multiple winner in handicaps (over obstacles)

140 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Naxox, 8/1 I´m A Legend, 10/1 Sunset Boulevard, Valassini, 12/1 Mossmann Gorge, Ocean Pride, Smokey The Bear, 16/1 Inn For The Dancer, 20/1 Alasil, Fox ´N´ Goose, 25/1 Barodine, Posh Emily, 33/1 April Attraction, Sidney Charles, 40/1 Galaxia, 50/1 Over Ice ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are no flies on Venetia Williams when it comes to wringing the most out of a horse who is ahead of the handicapper and it's hard to get away from NAXOX (nap), unpenalised for last week's easy win in a weak race. Sunset Boulevard might be an interesting each-way alternative if it's not too soft.[PJ]

Naxox nailed on?

410 WOLVES

I put Our KEs up against Confidentiality last time and at 11/4 she's worthy of support here ,again place only with some on the win

FOOTY

Spurs look good to win to nil against a Fulham side who will keep things tight, but I suspect be overcome 2nd half

Chelsea never lose at home do they? At 2/5 though, they are worth laying for the earlier section of the game as there is enough of a threat that Villa may get the first goal.

What normally happens after a tonking is a marked improvement next time the 2 teams meet and Derby v Liverpool looks good for a Liverpool win to nil. It may take a little while for Liverpool to break Derby down so a draw\Liverpool half time/full time might be worth a speculative punt

Good performance against Chelsea shows Sunderland won't be beaten easily today by Man Utd. The most likely scenario for me is MAn Utd breakthrough with 2 minutes of the first haalf to go. Under 2.5 goals trading looks possible given the probable defensive line up from SUnderland and the fact they're at home.

Portsmouth v Arsenal looks a cracker and a difficult puzzle to solve - Portsmouth still haven't scored at home recently and the last few games have all been under 2.5 goals which may be replicated this evening. Adebayour to score anytime may be worth a tickle!

22/12

Both selections placed yesterday so very marginal losses. At least they were competitive. The ideal is for the place only part of the bet on Betfair to be 2.00 or bigger thus guaranteeing a break even should selections place but yesterday the place only prices were around 1.86 which meant we got a large proportion of our win only stakes back for placing and, of course, all of our palce only stakes

Ascot has to pass an 1130 inspection , Newcastle is abandoned and Haydock goess ahead after another inspection. THese should provide warning signs that races probably wont all go the way of the form horses.

HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Hidden Bounty, 9/2 See You There, 11/2 Meggie´s Beau, 6/1 High Cotton, Sharp Belline, 7/1 Back In Business, 12/1 Jungle Jinks, Special Conquest, 14/1 Countess Trifaldi .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Reasons to take on most of these and things may yet fall right for High Cotton at this late stage. However, SEE YOU THERE will appreciate the return to this trip after failing to see out 4m last month and is preferred.

See you there each way for me - a distance winner over this specialist trip

340 LING

No.	Form	Horse	Trainer RTF %		Wgt	Jockey
1(2)	111002	Gentleman´s Deal 28	M W Easterby 67	6	9-7	Paul Mulrennan		9	115	81	13/8	13/8
2(3)	453581	Grand Passion 28	G Wragg —	7	9-5	Steve Drowne		3	115	114	3	7/2
3(4)	250053	Millville 28	M A Jarvis 0	7	9-3	N Callan		1	113	61	10/3	7/2
4(1)	488912	Troubadour 35	W Jarvis 33	6	9-3	T P Queally		2	113	97	11/2	13/2
5(5)	328-99	Kahlua Kiss 28	W R Muir 80	4	8-12	Hayley Turner			111	44	25	40
6(6)	213845	Voliere 21	S C Williams 75	4	8-12	J-P Guillambert			109	95	14	16

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Gentleman´s Deal, 9/4 Grand Passion, 3/1 Millville, 7/1 Troubadour, 16/1 Voliere, 33/1 Kahlua Kiss.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A hot contest and hopefully one that won't be spoilt by the lack of an early gallop. Millville's best chance of success might be to press on early but that would set things up nicely for Grand Passion and in the unknown circumstances GENTLEMAN'S DEAL, who is the most tactically flexible of the three, just gets the vote.[EMW]

" a hot contest"with Gentlemans Deal who "just gets the vote" - surely this is evidence enough that the market leader is no shoe in?
With the prices for 2nd and 3rd favs currently 7/2 ,they can both be backed to level stakes should Gentlemans Deal find life difficult

1155 NAVAN

A huge field for a maiden hurdle -30 runners and Sky Hall is 1/2 to win - this may suggest a lot of dead wood in this big field event, but I certainly won't be backing at that price. Capel Lad at 4/1 represents a decent alternative incase the market leader falters

1225 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Mick The Man, 7/2 Belle Artiste, 12/1 Ouhetu Des Mottes, 14/1 Sister Moira, 16/1 Dromore Express, Quarryfield Lass, 20/1 Coolbay House, Kicking Bull, Locked, 25/1 Benloyal, Charming Hills, Faoi Draiocht, Island Arrow, King Of The Opera, Oddshoes, Sole Bonne Femme, 33/1 An Carrig Rua, Ballyneale Breeze, Blue Steel Boy, Bobs Yer Uncle, Busaco, Kerry Leader, Madame Les Jambes, Millars Corner, Ross Accord, 50/1 Andthatsthewayitis, Classicworksofart, Dunadry Girl, Fiery Riley, Lisbellaw Express.

A poor case of seconditis for Mick the Man and I expect him to redress the balance today, although the percentage call with such a big field is to lay with a view to trading pre race or in running should any of the 29 other runners cause mistakes.At 1/3 liabilities are minimal

700 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nawamees, 5/2 Musango, 7/1 Atlantic Gamble, Easibet Dot Net, 10/1 Cool Isle, 12/1 Mr Excel, 20/1 Welcome Cat, 25/1 Chasing Memories, 66/1 Diamond Josh .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's nothing to choose between Nawamees and MUSANGO on recent Lingfield running and the Kelleway runner is taken to turn things round

"nothing to chose between" - then why not ot for the bigger priced horse - currently Musango who can be backed each way, or at least with emphasis on the place only part of the bet and a little to cover the win

FOOTY

As my showbiz pal Ronnie Corbet would say " and in a packed programme today" there's plenty of opportunity for selective bets today

First port of call is the Arse facing the Spuds in a London derby at the Emirates. An interesting game for all sorts of reasons. Looking back at recent encounters and the majority of goals have come in the 2nd half of games this year

15/9 -goals came in 15th minute then 65th minute, 80th minute, 90th minute
21/4 - goals came in 30th minute then 64th, 78th, 90th

Recent head to heads at home and Arsenal have won 1 and drawn 1.

In tha last 3 meetings we have had over 2.5 goals with 1-1 results prior to those.

Arsenal have won 2 of their recent home games, and interestingly away from home have lost to Boro and Newcastle. These 2 games have added significance with talk of a formula to knock the Arse off their stride - perhaps something to note for Sergio Ramos

THe Spuds recent away form has seen 2 score draws and a win by 1 away to Portsmouth - a very good result given Portsmouth's form.

So what can we glean from the above? Firstly for any person looking to trade the game, there may be late goals. Secondly, Spurs have scored the firsst goal in the last 2 meetings so anyone waiting to play in running could back Arsenal at enhanced odds if they go a goal behind.

An over 2.5 goals trade looks reasonable here with the prospect of at least one goal in the 1st half.

Spurs have not played any of the top 4 in their last 6 games so will be stepping up in class today
So for me it's over 2.5 goals and a very speculative bet on Spurs/Arsenal half time/full time at odds of 27 with a throw away stake.
TRADERS - watch out for 2nd half goals and lay Spurs if they take the lead.

Bolton v Brum looks a decent punt for an under 2.5 goal trade. 2 new managers will signal a tighter game for each side.

Portsmouth - superb away form and abysmal recent home form - they cannot score at home but score freely away from home, albeit against teams not in the top 4. Liverpool look worth a lay to me at 1.57 or perhaps backing Portsmouth at massive 7.6 -if they score first then this will be a good trading opportunity.

Leeds half time/full time at 2.3 represents decent odds for a home team scoring freely against an away team they tonked 3-0 at their gaff

Roma v Sampdoria may be worth backing at 2.88 for the over 3.5 goals with one eye on trading - Sampdoria have scored in each of their last 6 matches and recent head to heads have seen goals goals goals. Do try to engineer a green screen as ,if 2 goals have been scored early, then the 2.88 we backed will reduce greatly - one word of caution - the over 3.5 goals market may not be as liquid as others.

21/12

Excellent day yesterday with Portland Bill winning and Everton winning ( should have had the balls to put them up as a straight bet)

Pure Genius should have been a lay shouldn't it? - 18 runner novices hurdle in changeable ground - not a pure genius selection

In all onesty RUffie was more a selection influenced by Spotlight - I should have known - class 6 seller!

1220 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Yes Mr President, 7/2 Pharaohs Justice, 5/1 Caribana, Leamington, Taikoo, 10/1 Black Heart, 33/1 Hollow Dream, Tiegan An Josh .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Leamington is the pick of those with experience but riding arrangements suggest YES MR PRESIDENT is the pick of the Mark Johnston pair. While not operating at the level it was last winter, the yard is still having winners and the market will be the best guide to his prospects on this racecourse debut. [RY]

The market will be important here but I'll chance Caribina each way

155 UTTOX

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Gods Token, 3/1 Oceanos Des Obeaux, 5/1 Le Burf, 11/2 Olmeto Collonges, 6/1 Glinton, 25/1 The Thunderer, 40/1 Supercilious, 100/1 Supreme Leisure .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GODS TOKEN has the best hurdles form and his recent chase debut, as far as it went admittedly, also suggested he is the one to beat. Four others have pretty useful form, or near it, and need respect.

3 can be discounted - olmeto Collonges each way for me

20/12

So close to being an excellent start to the day with a 9/1 2nd by a head (supreme cara) and a 3/1 winner. To be fair I stopped at the 3/1 winner (whiteoak in the 120 BAngor)as I said I would - 2nd bet of the day - given the trouble we've had in nabbing winners with the difficult and unpredictable conditions. Flintoff unplaced. Rabbit fighter won albeit at short odds. Verbatim 2nd for each way backers. Ryans Future another 4th place. Group Captain won by the shortest of margins and Trust Fund won.
The lay of Liverpool came off again as did the under 2.5goals trade. I was perhaps a bit too optimistic with Reggina! Half time/full time for BAyern Munich easily met at far better prices - the goals certainly came . GAlatasary consented not to score, but Getafe fielded a strong side and were a great price at evens prevailing 2-1.

250 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Temoin, 5/2 Mark The Book, 4/1 In Accord, 5/1 Portland Bill, 12/1 Snoopy Loopy, 16/1 The Real Deal, 25/1 Barrys Ark, 33/1 Hydromatic, 100/1 Devon Blue, Littleton Aldor .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Temoin has comfortably the best form as a hurdler but it is no certainty that he will love this. In Accord is respected if back to his best but there are two others to take very seriously in MARK THE BOOK, who made a highly favourable impression in his first three novice hurdles, and useful hurdler Portland Bil

A 4 horse affair judging by the odds - In accord and Portland Bill each way for me - I hope this isn't a 1-2 for Temoin and Mark the book.

350 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pure Genius, 11/2 Maggie Mathias, 15/2 Lady Pilot, 8/1 Phardessa, Takotna, 9/1 Inghwung, Thebelloftheball, 14/1 Blue Speedwell, 16/1 Butterfly Rose, 25/1 Another Present, Azione, Haligreen, 40/1 Campden Annie, Lilac Wine, Miss Penfold, Super Lady, 100/1 Double´s Daughter, Kitebrook .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PURE GENIUS (nap) makes clearly the most appeal after her Newbury second first time out over hurdles, even though the likes of Maggie Mathias and winners Lady Pilot and Takotna have shown promise 18 runner mares only novices hurdle and quite obviously Pure Genius is the fancied runner and may be worth siding with , probably ideally a place only bet for me. 130 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Ruffie, 100/30 Louisiade, 7/2 Shifty, 6/1 Amorist, 8/1 Davidia, 10/1 Time For Change, 12/1 Sion Hill, 33/1 Meeting Of Minds, Mr Chocolate Drop, Shopfitter, 50/1 By Storm, Global Achiever . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these have questions to answer. Louisiade and Shifty have leading claims if they can recapture the form they were showing here in the first part of the year but this return to 1m will suit RUFFIE, whose C&D record reads 32013, and she can step up on last week's second here in a 7f seller. Ruffie each way looks good enough for a place at least given the course and distance form mentioned by SPotlight Everton look massive at 4/1 tonight away from home. RAther than backing them, perhaps laying AZ Alkmaar may reap some rewards.