Saturday 18 July 2009

18/7

Job done yesterday
Interestingly Spurs won yesterday 3-0 so perhaps it's worth backing Premiership clubs in friendlies where the gulf is huge?

215 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Ejteyaaz, 7/4 Andantino, 10/1 Fuerte Miramar, 12/1 Light Years Ahead, 14/1 Runaway Rose, Take Him Home, 16/1 Debbie Harri, 20/1 Lisagore Lady, Loughderg Princess, 25/1 The Bay Bandit, Travel Treat, 33/1 Ainm Spartacus, Rio Branston.

2 class trainers/jockeys in the front 2 BUT heavy ground 1.1 and 1.39 the front 2 but this market is very illiquid

240 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rupestrian, 7/1 Pure Crystal, Red China Blues, Royal Max, True Britannia, 9/1 Tropical Bachelor, 14/1 Highland Storm, Jonnie Skull, 50/1 Dollar Express.

DIOMED VERDICT: The market will be invaluable but TRUE BRITANNIA could be the one to end Rupestrian's winning run.

On a hatrick and the price gap remains. Not a handicap so no weight increase issues, but this novice hurdle has the look of a maiden with debutants to hurdling. 1.4 to place - again markets are quite quiet at midday

305 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Sunshine Always, 100/30 Maswerte, 4/1 Sovereign Remedy, 11/2 Pride Of Kings, 7/1 Bravo Echo, 10/1 Aim To Achieve, 14/1 Tarzan, 25/1 Kings Troop.

DIOMED VERDICT: The step up to 1m is expected to unlock further improvement from MASWERTE.

Only 4 remain and hopefully 3 places -yes 3 places -sunshine always is 1.12, Maswerte is 1.17 , aim to achieve is 1.39 and brave echo is 1.73
This looks like the race

345 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Silver Shoon, 13/2 Bob´s Ransom, 8/1 Orlando Dawn, Spring Horizon, 12/1 Luckydolly, Sweet Effie, 16/1 Dynamique, 20/1 Bay Knight, Catching The Moon, Rolling Steel, 25/1 Dooie Dancer, 33/1 Barefield.

Weld/Smullen price gapper but again heavy ground -1.06 again very illiquid

415 MR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Any Given Day, 11/4 Moment Present, 4/1 Alesandro Mantegna, 13/2 Viable, 12/1 Kayf Commander, 28/1 Galley Slave, 66/1 Night Reveller, 80/1 Barlin Bay, 100/1 Miss Zigzag.

DIOMED VERDICT: ANY GIVEN DAY sets a useful standard despite the double penalty and can make it three from three over hurdles.

Only 4 under 16/1 the ones to concentrate on? 1.19 any given day in what we hope is a 4 horse race

525 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Tamarind, 8/1 Fontegiusta, Table Forty Six, 10/1 Happy Milly, 14/1 Gortnasool Girl, Up For Glory, 20/1 Angels Game, Fin Rua, Go Teddy Go, Missy Mahopac.

Murtagh/O'Brien on a 1 /4 shot -even given the heavy conditions cannot be readily dismissed -1.06 to place and 1.31 to win

725 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Agente Parmigiano, 4/1 Elna Bright, 5/1 Captain Jacksparra, 10/1 Statute Book, 12/1 Blow Hole, 16/1 Nun Today, Whotsit, 20/1 Musigny, Noverre To Hide, 33/1 Annan Rock, Shake On It, 100/1 Rony Dony.

DIOMED VERDICT: The 95-rated AGENTE PARMIGIANO (nap), who has kept useful company this term, should be able to take advantage of a big drop in grade

Class droppers have really performed well haven't they when they've been highlighted, and although this is a claimer, the fav is still a price gapper. 1.19 to place

755 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Slip, 11/4 Guiseppe Verdi, Polish Power, 20/1 Dramatic Jewel, Platoche, 25/1 La Belle Joannie, Romantic Interlude, 33/1 Infinite Patience, Primera Rossa, Spin Sister, 50/1 Calling Birds, Felicia,

DIOMED VERDICT: GUISEPPE VERDE has gone to a yard with a good record with cast-offs from other yards and can defy his absence now down in grade.

3 horse race, but Platoche is 10/1 too so focus on these 4? 1.3 to place Slip,

910 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Speed Dating, 6/1 Kindest, 8/1 Fortunate Bid, 10/1 Cavendish Road, Harriet´s Girl, 12/1 Black River Falls, Iron Man Of Mersey, 16/1 Dean Iarracht, 20/1 Fantino, Flying Silks, Neo´s Mate, 25/1 Lost In The Desert, Piccolo Express, Rose Cheval.

DIOMED VERDICT: SPEED DATING is open to improvement having made his comeback at a time when his yard was quiet.

Price gapper in a class 5 0-70 handicap -would prefer a class 6 0-60 handicap 1.32

FOOTBALL
14:00 Orlando Pirates vs Manchester City 11/2 13/5 4/9
15:00 Barnet vs Arsenal 10/1 4/1 1/5
15:00 Rochdale vs Everton 6/1 10/3 1/3
15:00 Gateshead vs Sunderland 9/1 7/2 1/4
20:00 Seattle vs Chelsea 15/2 10/3 2/7

My contention is that Premiership clubs v poorer quality opposition should win easily even though it's a friendly and ultimately meaningless game
Results have shown this recently with Blackburn and Spurs winning easily
Arsenal looks the standout of the above games

SHORTLIST
305 Newmarket -4 horse race and 3 places -sunshine always was the original favourite and it is a simple case of not finishing last!
525 TIPP - Tamarand for Aiden O'Brien and Jonny Murtagh looks v solid but the price belies this
Barnet v Arsenal - I have read that this game can be a bit of fun for the Arse but 1.22 is very enticing isn't it in the hope they can dipatch Barnet.
Not in running alas, and the ideal with footy bets is to manage positions
Everton look solid against Rochdale

ONE A DAY
305 Newmarket is the best probability bet of the day -4 horses and 3 places - 1.12 for the fav to place is great

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