Thursday 16 July 2009

16/7

Levski could not score at half time but a huge gamble on Secret dancer in the first race yesterday paid off for some one a dayers in the live chat, and in the 210, 2 horses were under 14/1 in the live betting - one became a non runner, leaving Persian Falcon with an outstanding chance of success. And that was my one a day.
I did mention yesterday that I was going to try to find a horse before the football and so it was luckily, to keep my one a day record going.

200 CARTMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Lake Wakatipu, 9/2 Bannville, Crazy Eyes, 5/1 Quedillac, 16/1 Speedy Max, 20/1 Corporation, Crai Crum, 33/1 Boston Bay, Elusive Swallow, Kayaka, Parisian Knight.

DIOMED VERDICT: LAKE WAKATIPU should have no problem picking herself up from an unlucky defeat at Aintree to win a race like this.

4 under 16/1 the ones to concentrate on?1.23 to place

220 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Melody In The Mist, 4/1 Layla´s Hero, 9/2 Aintwogrand, 10/1 Firetrap, 16/1 Ochilview Warrior, 20/1 Clever Molly, 66/1 Kirkby´s Gem,

DIOMED VERDICT: MELODY IN THE MIST sets a clear standard on her narrow defeat over C&D last month with Layla's Hero and Aintwogrand biggest dangers.

5 under 20/1 in the live market
Was 8 runners but now 7- hopefully 3 places still on betfair - only 2 places and fav odds on and 1.24 to place

240 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Izuizorizuain´T, 100/30 Musiara, 8/1 Annia Galeria, 16/1 Grace Jicaro, Ishe A Lord, 25/1 Saachi´s Vision, That´Lldonowthen, 33/1 Althabea, 66/1 Beach Boy.

DIOMED VERDICT: A weak seller which appears at the mercy of IZUIZORIZUAIN'T.

Price gapper but a seller - 1.18 to place

250 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Obe Gold, 9/4 Raccoon, 11/4 High Curragh, 10/1 Just Joey, 16/1 Rue Soleil, 25/1 Ava´s World, 50/1 Gelert, 66/1 Throw The Dice.

DIOMED VERDICT: OBE GOLD is taken to mow down Raccoon and High Curragh late on.

8 runners down to 6, and a race where only 3 are under 33/1 -looks ideal if 3 places on Betfair still - raccoon and Obe are 1.07 in what looks a clear 50/50 race

400 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Urban Poet, 7/2 Proud Times, 4/1 Acquavella, 13/2 Jeunopse, 10/1 Clientele, Moon Money, 20/1 Rapid Desire, 33/1 Agricultural, 100/1 Ducal Regancy Duke, Go Man Go.


DIOMED VERDICT: Proud Times sets the standard but URBAN POET, a half-brother to high-class colt and leading US sire Pulpit, may prove up to the task on his debut.

Urbn Poet is another Johnston juvenile so you know the drill - watch for support for this debutant 1.5 to place - we need to see the race in the live environment to see if there is any confidence or otherwise

500 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Ottoman Empire, 4/1 Merdaam, Seaway, 5/1 Bow To No One, 8/1 Lacrosse, 16/1 Stormy Morning, 20/1 Arashi, Flodden Field, Laafet, Reset City, 33/1 Billy The Gas.

DIOMED VERDICT: OTTOMAN EMPIRE ran well at Pontefract on his second start and could be the one to beat.

Seaway the early mover at the moment for Godolphin 1.48 to place

610 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Ogre, 4/1 Brooksby, 11/2 Roly Boy, 6/1 Caprio, 15/2 Carmenero, Resplendent Nova, 16/1 Star Strider, 40/1 Mystic Roll.

DIOMED VERDICT: Richard Hannon's pair of Roly Boy and, in particular, Brooksby have to be respected but OGRE is quite a force at claiming level and can go in again.

Ultra consistent claiming horse this Ogre. 1.28 to place and Caprio is a mover 1.56 to place

700 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Viscount Nelson, 7/2 Lake Worth, 5/1 Dazzling Day, 6/1 Concert Piece, 12/1 Crying Time, 14/1 Giopi, 20/1 Cataspheric.

Aiden O'Brien fav who should improve for the first run 1.17 to place and 2 places

730 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Empress of France, 4/1 Reflected Image, 6/1 Sugar Baby Love, 7/1 Alazan, Clodova, 10/1 About A Girl, Bernardo O´Higgins, 12/1 Boo Boo Bear, Four Mirrors, 14/1 Screen Diva, 16/1 My Own Patron, 20/1 Night Spark, Tara Warrior, 25/1 Statenice, Twenty Bags, 33/1 Crystal Idea, Grand Minstrel, Mexican Way.

Another O'Brien maiden horse but a disconcertingly big field - illiquid market

810 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Forgotten Voice, 9/2 Bushman, 11/2 Moyenne Corniche, 6/1 Dream Lodge, 16/1 Perks.

DIOMED VERDICT: There is nothing to suggest FORGOTTEN VOICE won't handle softer conditions than he has met so far and he is taken to maintain his unbeaten record.

Impressing win record but concerns over soft ground should be revealed in the live betting market near the off -1.23 to place

FOOTBALL
17:00 FC Honka vs Bangor City 1/4
18:00 Rosenborg vs Qarabag 1/12
18:00 Sigma Olomouc vs Fram Reykjavik 1/6
18:00 Elfsborg vs Haladas 4/11
18:00 Anorthosis vs Petrovac 1/4
18:15 Rapid Vienna vs Vllaznia 1/5
18:30 Basel vs Santa Coloma 1/33
18:30 Omonia Nicosia vs Torshavn 1/10
19:00 Legia Warsaw vs Olimpi 2/7
19:05 Brondby vs Flora 1/6
19:30 Juvenes/Dogana vs Polonia Warszaw 12/1 6/1 1/9
19:45 NAC Breda vs Gandzasar 1/16

Ultra



SHORTLIST
250 HAMILTON
Great 50/50 race here - raccoon and obe gold the 2 here - 3 places and 1.07 the pair
700 LEOP - Viscount Nelson is 1.17 but 2 places BUT O'Brien horse who should improve for the first run
Rosenborg 1.09 to win outright.

ONE A DAY
250 Hamilton looks ideal albeit with a poor price
and then Rosenborg I feel. They are solid enough and at 1/12 at home should bring it home for the straight win.

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