back-lay-trade-horses-football: 8/8

MIDDAY UPDATE - got a bit carried away with Kilkenny - they are playing tomorrow but mark your card for this easy one a dayer!
I love it when a plan comes together. Real MAdrid won 5-1 and it was a delight to see some of the big names put these Canadians to the sword. I backed them as my one a day TODAY on the nose after the team news (well worth staying up for!) The pressure is off me today but let's see if there's anything worth backing

AZ won 2-0, Fremen, what's the horse racing term?, -yes - pissed it at 1/12 and was tradeable as 1.25 when I wrote the blog and 1.12 at the off, and slightly tradeable in the place market as 1.07 when I wrote the blog, 1.04 at the off.

Everything else went in, and I was extremely pleased with my analysis of Penang Cinta in the 5pm race, he went on to win. Again, I will argue that no horse racing knowledge was needed to nail this one, just logic. originally a 3rd fav, the 1st, 2nd and 4th favs became non runners. Also, The Racing Post told you that Penang is 1-2-1 over course and distance!

Shergar Cup at Ascot a bit Mickey Mouse I think, but we'll see what happens

205 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Just The Tonic, 5/2 Wijikura, 5/1 Kapelad Junior, 14/1 Drinking Buddy, Prettiest Star, Seldom Seen Kid, 33/1 Menediva, 50/1 Cygnet Committee, 100/1 Calders, Foricherforpoorer, Green Shoots, Wallgate.

DIOMED VERDICT: JUST THE TONIC sets the standard on form and should make the most of this easier opening.

3 under 14/1 is now 4 under 14/1 with Prettiest Star now 7/1UPDATE PRETTIEST STAR AND CYGNET COMMITTEE ARE POTENTIAL MOVERS HERE IN THIS 11 RUNNER SELLER 1.31 TO PLACE - STILL 4 UNDER 14/1 SO WE CAN ARGUE FOR A PROBABILITY RACE IF THOSE OVER 14/1 RUN TO THEIR PRICES

440 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Manifest, 3/1 Ebiayn, 9/2 Sally Forth, 6/1 Moonbeam Dancer, 8/1 Count Of Tuscany, 25/1 Beat The Devil, 50/1 Princess Aliuska.

DIOMED VERDICT: MANIFEST shaped well on his 1m2f debut here and is preferred to Ebiayn.

Now 1/2 and a price gapper 1/2 - - - 5/1 2 horses are priced as outsiders leaving 5 horses now and 2 places
UPDATE - NOW 1/2 IN PLACES AND AN APPEALING 1.25 TO PLACE ( BASED ON 2 PLACES AND THE RACE TYPE - MIDDLE DISTANCE MAIDEN)

450 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Ordoney, 2/1 Helieorbea, 8/1 Severio, 20/1 Blastie, 33/1 Avonlini, Towthorpe, 50/1 Spartan Storm, 66/1 Consequence,

DIOMED VERDICT: ORDONEY has presumably had his problems but he looked one for the future on his debut and this looks a good opportunity.

Only 3 under 20/1 the ones to concentrate on here? This is another maiden
UPDATE - REMAINS 3 UNDER 20/1 HERE AND A LOT MUST BE TAKEN ON TRUST THAT THE BETTING MARKET IS ACCURATE IN THIS MAIDEN 1.1, 1.19 AND 2.04 THE FRONT 2 TO PLACE WITH CLEAR FAVOUR TO ORDONEY WHO HAS ONLY HAD THE ONE RUN

530 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Huckle Buck Shoe, 4/1 Chip Tea, 5/1 Dusty Trail, 8/1 Baggio, Know The Rules, 10/1 Lake Return, 12/1 The Hares Corner, 14/1 Rachra Flyer, Soitoldyou, 16/1 Noel Blanc, 20/1 Andy Kan, Leitmotif, Secret Moment, 33/1 Skull Inn,

Walsh/Mullins must always be considered. All of the Mullins fancies yesterday placed with ease - 1.21 TO PLACE -ILLIQUID MARKET

540 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Major Lawrence, 4/1 Present Alchemy, 11/2 Alpha Tauri, 13/2 Mata Hari Blue, 14/1 Early Morning Rain, 16/1 Sutton Veny, 20/1 Poppanan, South African, 22/1 Bobble Rock, 25/1 So Glamorous, 28/1 Captain Teddo, 33/1 Fast Living, Keibla Spirit, 50/1 Copper Sovereign, Louise Sauvage, 66/1 Public Image, Spring Bridge.

DIOMED VERDICT: MAJOR LAWRENCE cost 310,000euros, was an eye-catching second on debut and could be hard to beat.

Now that's some serious price tag. Odds on now after only the one run - 16 runner maiden is the concern regardless of the horse's potential - UPDATE - STILL ODDS ON AND 1.21 TO PLACE - THE HOPE IS THAT 310,OOO EUROS WAS WELL SPENT

620 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Melody In The Mist, 5/2 Dower Glen, 5/1 Sands Of Dee, 6/1 Luv U Noo, 25/1 Somewhere Else.

DIOMED VERDICT: It'll be disappointing if MELODY IN THE MIST doesn't make the most of this drop in grade.

Worth following Diomed's confident tones?
A claimer though - UPDATE - AND A 5 FURLONG CLAIMER AT THAT - 1.31 THE FAV TO PLACE TELLS YOU THAT THE MARKET DOES NOT REALLY LIKE 5 FURLONG 5 RUNNER 2 YEAR OLD CLAIMERS
630 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Themoonandsixpence, 7/2 Green Mile, 5/1 Oodachee, 8/1 Good Thyne Diva, 10/1 Compton Court, So Billiant, 14/1 Jamsie Hall, 20/1 Pistol Jack, Ziggy Zen.

More Walsh/Mullins shenanigans at the head of the market
Only 3 under 12/1 in the live betting market should be the ones to concentrate on
UPDATE - 1.12 TO PLACE -ODDS ON (1.72) IN THE WIN MARKET AND JUST 9 RUNNERS -WALSH CAN NORMALLY BE RELIED UPON ON A MULLINS HOT POT
650 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Yeadon, 4/1 Sunnandaeg, 5/1 Happy Dubai, 13/2 Classlin, 16/1 Kai Broon, 20/1 Wing N Prayer, 25/1 Daphne Du Maurier, 50/1 Wing Forward.

DIOMED VERDICT: Richard Fahey is 3-6 with his 2yos at Ayr this season and YEADON, who looks well worth another chance returned to turf, can enhance that record.

I do like maidens who have had experience and have run with a degree of consistency - Yeadon is 322 and fits the bill for me.
2 debutants and the rest of the field one time outers could be open to improvement.
The straight 8 here, and 2 over 50/1 can hopefully be discounted.
UPDATE -1.1 TO PLACE - THE MARKET IS GIVING NOTHING AWAY AND AGREES WITH ME THAT THIS YEADON IS A STRONG PLACE CANDIDATE

740 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Advertisement, 4/1 Cafe Greco, 5/1 Kavak, 6/1 Aattash, James Barrymore, 14/1 Navy List, 16/1 Kinky Afro, 20/1 Comedy Act, Dontbugthebunny, 100/1 Superhoops, 200/1 Little Meadow, Vadition.

DIOMED VERDICT: A decent maiden but ADVERTISEMENT can fulfil the promise of his Ascot debut en route to better things.

I remember Advertisement's last (and sole) run and he could be good to place again
1.16 TO PLACE IN AN ILLIQUID MARKET

750 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mister Tinktastic, 5/1 Grissom, 11/2 Lucky Numbers, 7/1 Suzie Quw, 12/1 Blown It, 16/1 The Magic Of Rio.

DIOMED VERDICT: MISTER TINKTASTIC was impressive at Pontefract on Wednesday and can defy a penalty.

Price gapper in a class 4 handicap. What's offputting here is the fact it's only 2 places - 1.18 TO PLACE BUT A NUMBER OF THESE ARE BEING BACKED TOO

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