Friday, 14 August 2009

15/8

Bray won, Sofia won and the lesson of the day is trading. Sofia 2-0 up and in running = get out - they drew 2-2 , opponents go a man down and Sofia were backable at 1.78 ( enhanced bet!) eventually winning 3-2
Fed - went a set down, backable at 1.69( enhanced bet) traded at 1.01 with 5-2 up 3rd set and LOST. I traded out at 1.02 to lay and you should have too -NO EXCUSES.
My main bet was Bray Wanderers and 2-0 was the final score line - the boys from Tralee were undone and 1.25 was massive with my local knowledge.

I took a screenshot of the enhanced bets and you can see how strong a trading concept these enhanced bets are in the August newsletter. Big returns for last 2 days just by stumbling across possible shocks where the market makers price accordingly BUT we keep faith in the original short prices being indicative of likely results.

My one a day was Malt n Mash in reaction to Phoenix FLight becoming a non runner. And he obliged at a nice 1.23.

IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU GET YOUR ONE A DAY, JUST GET YOUR ONE A DAY AND FINISH . Imagine if you got greedy and went for Tournedos in the evening. 1.08 and reduced to 5 runners and 3 places. This 1/2 shot finished 4th!! Quite unbelievable. BUT this would not have negatively impacted you if you stuck to your one a day and quit.

LESSON FROM YESTERDAY - trade out when you are in a position to trade out.

130 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Love And Devotion, 6/1 Dylanesque, Half Sister, Jacqueline Quest, Pin Cushion, Za Za Zoom, 8/1 Dance East, 10/1 Texas Queen, 16/1 Golden Aria, 33/1 Queen´s Grace, Superior Edge.

DIOMED VERDICT: The betting should offer valuable clues about the newcomers but LOVE AND DEVOTION's experience could be the key factor

Five timer for Frankie yesterday shows Godolphin to be in fine fettle - Love and Devotion their candidate today - has had the one run but a messy race with so many debutants 1.47

150 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Rakaan, 5/1 Engulf, 6/1 Arabian Pride, 14/1 Edinburgh Knight, 20/1 Saladin´s Vow, 40/1 Granite Girl, No Complaining, 50/1 Tenga Venga, 66/1 Broughtons Day, 100/1 Gabriel´s Spirit, Gessabelle.

DIOMED VERDICT: RAKAAN stands out on form, for all that he's not looked the strongest of finishers.

Price gapper here and has had 4 runs which is good for a maiden. This is class 4 and has been plying trade as high as class 1. Only 4 under 25/1 here and this looks a good place candidate despite slight Diomed reservations ( but why is he at 1/2 then if Diomed's thoughts are perceived as a negative)?

205 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Azmeel, 9/4 Lucky General, 11/4 Blakey´s Boy, 10/1 Farmers Wish, 20/1 Practitioner, 33/1 Sabander Bleue.

DIOMED VERDICT: Possible this will be tactical and LUCKY GENERAL's experience could give him the edge over the unbeaten piar Azmeel and Blakey's Boy.

2 jockeys at the top of their game in Moore and Hughes , both on the 2 market leaders in what looks a 3 horse race and 2 places
Slightly niggly race as one of the 3 fancies will not place, BUT WHICH ONE?

210 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Tislaam, 7/2 Mark Anthony, 9/2 Mexican Milly, Suzi´s A Smartlady, 10/1 Royal Record, 12/1 Ella Grace, 20/1 Destiny´s Dancer, 25/1 Beverley Mac, 33/1 Marchin Star, Woodhouse Mill, 50/1 War Wolf.

DIOMED VERDICT: TISLAAM was just shaded out by a very capable winner at Salisbury and can go one better.

Hardened into 5/4 and 11/10 in places this fav

225 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Fongoli, 5/1 Location, 7/1 Desert Fever, 8/1 Marsool, 12/1 Tillietudlem, 14/1 Mary Mason, 16/1 Forty Thirty, 33/1 Cobos.

DIOMED VERDICT: FONGOLI is a useful type for these early season juvenile events and she can complete her hat-trick.

Nice to see the Champ on aprice gappered fancied horse - concern here is there are a number of newcomers to hurdling ( and they could be donkeys or the next Shergar!)

235 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Kite Wood, 4/1 Mourilyan, 9/2 All The Aces, 9/1 Age Of Reason, Kings Gambit, 10/1 Dansant, 16/1 Basaltico, Fiulin, Halicarnassus.

DIOMED VERDICT: MOURILYAN sets the standard and should be okay with this drop back in trip.

Significant non runner in All the Aces leaves the distance between front 2 and the rest of the field .Kite wood is now strong 5/4 . We must remember of course that top quality fields have top quality horses throughout

310 NewbUry
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Evasive, 5/1 Border Patrol, 11/1 Arabian Gleam, 12/1 Gallagher, Plum Pudding, Tariq, 14/1 Balthazaar´s Gift, Palace Moon, Regal Parade, 16/1 Prime Defender, 25/1 Al Qasi, 33/1 Al Muheer, 40/1 Express Wish, Welsh Emperor.

DIOMED VERDICT: EVASIVE looks the type to make further progress, particularly now dropped back from 1m.

2nd fav out and Evasive is he price gapper here 11/8 - - - 9/1

320 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hafawa, 3/1 Colonel Mak, 9/2 Bagamoyo, 5/1 Whozthecat, 6/1 Bow Beaver, 12/1 Exotic Beauty, 25/1 Irish Jugger,

DIOMED VERDICT: HAFAWA produced a strong finish to get the job done on her Pontefract introduction and shouldn't be fazed by this stronger company.

6 runners and 3 places and Hafawa is the Johnston fav at an enticing 1.35

335 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Reggae Rock, 3/1 Crying Time, 5/1 Midnight Mover, 7/1 The Lock Master, 8/1 One Set, 10/1 Fantando, 12/1 Cleodora, 14/1 Sassaway, 16/1 Milvian Bridge, Sichuan Province, 33/1 Blast, My Elusive Dream, Red Breast, 50/1 Luckiest Owners,

Ballydoyle fav a possible maiden improver

400 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Electioneer, Rockabilly Rebel, 7/1 Mister Hughie, White Daffodil, 8/1 Radio City, 12/1 I´Malwaysright, Royal Blade, 14/1 Mahiki, Mijas Playa, Six Diamonds, 16/1 Val C, 25/1 Danzoe.

DIOMED VERDICT: This may principally involved the two least exposed runners, Electioneer and ROCKABILLY REBEL.

2 year old nursey -hate these races but Fanning rides again on electioneer now a strong fav

515 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rockys Choice, 7/1 Breeze With Ease, Word Of Warning, 8/1 Ja Myford, 10/1 Cool Bob, Seedless, 20/1 Simply Splendid, 25/1 Art Value, 50/1 Born West, Royal Tender, 100/1 Give Us The Nod, 150/1 Cut To.

DIOMED VERDICT: bROCKYS CHOICE (nap) is the form pick, with Ja Myford a feasible each-way alternative.

Johnson for Vaughan, another jockey at the top of his game at present -maiden hurdle the niggle with this price gapper

630 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Dubai Set, 15/8 Al Dafa, 5/1 Burgau Royal, 20/1 Machine Gun Kelly, Mandarin Express, 25/1 Rockweiller, 50/1 Until The Man, 100/1 Fast Elaine, Knockback.

DIOMED VERDICT: With his recent form working out so well, DUBAI SET is expected to get off the mark.

Ryan Moore rides a fav with experience, fRANKIE on the other ( a debutant), preference for me would be with the experienced Dubai Set

Football
Chelsea at 1.18 v Hull looks great start to the season
Everton v Arsenal 1.12 under 4.5 goals in what I take to be a tight game
Real Sociodad v madrid - 1.2 over 1.5 goals looks superb here given the new signings and the fact madrid have forgottent o buy any defenders again
Rosenborg are 1.25 to beat a team they beat 4-0 at their place. Lay Bodo at 12 is the same as 1.08

SHORTLIST
150 NMKT Rakaan is 1.12 to place and has that all im portant form for this maiden which is a positive in my eyes
225 BANGOR - Fongoli has the champ on board in this straight 8 race1.2 to place - 5 debutants a concern
310 Newbury - Evasive is a big price gapper now - 1.35 to place tells you this is a high class field
630 LING - Dubai Set- Ryan Moore - experienced maiden -1.11 to place
Chelsea 1.18 shoudl ease through this one with trading in mind i they score first ( you saw the importance of trading with FEDERER yesterday
Real Soc v Real Madrid 1.2 over 1.5 goals ( and tradeable) surely looks a good bet doesn't it with Benzema, Robben, kaka, Ronaldo, Raul et al

ONE A DAY
Chelsea should at least score and hopefully score first and are my unoriginal choice at 1.18 today -throughout this season trading is the key to all footy bets
Over 1.5 goals in the Real clash looks v enticing and from the horse racing perspective, Dubai Set would be my one



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