Watch out for Bordeaux this season. 4-1 last night and NEVER LOST AT HOME last season - ones to follow at home
Real MAdrid I spotted last night agains tDC united and they won 3-0 - last of the friendlies I think, and a team full of goals, more so that Etoo less Barcelona I think
230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dahakaa, 11/4 West Leake Star, 13/2 Wellmarked, 8/1 Maldon Prom, 10/1 Summa Cum Laude, 12/1 Kahail, 16/1 Sixbox, Sovereign Secure, 33/1 Campaigner, 66/1 Dencolstina, 100/1 Woodenitbenice.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Dahakaa is an interesting contender despite his absence and it would be significant if market signals are more positive this time but WEST LEAKE STAR doesn't have much to find on RPR. |
Only 3 under 10/1 here the ones to focus on in this big field maiden?
245 SOUTHWELL
| DIOMED VERDICT: DUSTER should take some beating if reproducing his good Polytrack debut effort on this surface. |
Should take some beating declares Diomed. Price gapper here in the live market too. Watch out for possible market mover Royal Holiday.
Debut on polytrack - fibresand today.
The straight 8 runners and 2 over 33/1 can hopefully be discounted.
Interesting
UPDATE - NOW ODDS ON SHOT THIS DUSTER 8/11 - - - 9/2
ELLISON HAS 2 IN THIS FIELD AND IT IS ROYAL HOLIDAY WHO HAS BEEN BACKED ALL MORNING - POTENTIAL GAMBLE HERE ON THE OUTSIDER OF THE 2 ELLISON RUNNERS? 1.12 FOR DUSTER TO PLACE
LOOKS A DECENT ENOUGH RACE PROBABILITY WISE IF WE CAN DISCOUNT THE OUTSIDERS
620 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Gene Autry, 13/8 Bonheurs Art, 14/1 Bush Master, 20/1 Young Simon, 25/1 Richboy, 33/1 Accountable, Antoella, Aunty Betty, 40/1 Alfalevva, 50/1 Bojangles Andrews.
| DIOMED VERDICT: GENE AUTRY and Bonheurs Art can dominate. |
730 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Our Joe Mac, 7/1 George Benjamin, 8/1 Bintalaleumydarlin, Forshour, 10/1 Emerald Glade, 12/1 Arlequin, Princess Neenee, 14/1 Quite Sparky, 16/1 Frontline Boy, Vittachi, 20/1 Boss´s Destination, 25/1 No Quarter, 66/1 Ochilview Warrior, 100/1 Verona Lad.
| DIOMED VERDICT: OUR JOE MAC (nap)'s promising debut came in a much warmer race than this usually turns out to be and he can get off the mark at the second attempt. |
Price gapper here after only one run? Now that's some confidence (or folly?) UPDATE ODDS ON SHOT NOW IN THIS 14 RUNNER MAIDEN AND STRONG FORM -CLEAR OF THE REST WHEN 3RD -THE 4TH HORSE HAS WON SINCE - V STRONG AND COMPELLING FORM.
1.26 TO PLACE
750 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Beauchamp Xerxes, 3/1 Awesome Surprise, 5/1 Ban Garda, 13/2 Mydy Easy, 7/1 El Libertador, 8/1 Gearbox, 10/1 One Cool Dream, 40/1 Legend Of Greece, 50/1 Countrystyle Lass, 100/1 Be Kind, Welsh Passion.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Whether the Listed form of BEAUCHAMP XERXES is believed or not, he has a huge chance in this company. |
A superb weekend sees Richard Hughes in top form - is this the missing link that will boost Beachamp Xerxes' chances? Diomed is strong on him. - has been running in class 1 and class 3 company
The niggle with me is the number of horses sub 10/1 indicating this maiden may be competitive
UPDATE - 1.28 TO PLACE AND I AM DRAWN BY THE JOCKEY - BEST TO HAVE A CONFIDENT AND WINNING (AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME) JOCKEY ON YOUR SIDE - 4 HORSES ARE 50/1 OR BIGGER REDUCING THE COMPETITIVE FIELD
820 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Point Of Light, 5/1 Vita Mia, 8/1 Mustajed, 9/1 Bolanderi, Little Prudence, 20/1 Dhania, 25/1 Enthusius, 33/1 Eseej.
| DIOMED VERDICT: POINT OF LIGHT has a great opportunity for four in a row, assuming recent exertions have not taken a toll. |
Price gapper here certainly priced for the 4 timer but we have the multiple handicap winner conundrum - eventually the winning run WILL end. Simple as that. It's determining whether it will end today, and if it does end, will Point of Light still be competitive for a place UPDATE - UNPENALISED FOR LAST WIN AS THAT WAS IN AN APPRENTICE HANDICAP SO WITH NO 6LB PENALTY TO CARRY THIS OFFERS A PERSUASUVE ARGUMENT FOR ANOTHER PLACE AT THE VERY LEAST?1.14 TO PLACE HERE -THE STRAIGHT 8 - 3 OVER 25/1 CAN HOPEFULLY BE UNCOMPETITIVE LEAVING 2 TO BEAT TO PLACE
CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF RACES RECENTLY AT MIDDLE DISTANCE 2 RACES SINCE 31ST JULY AND ANOTHER TODAY ONLY 4 DAYS AFTER
CHRIS CATLIN TAKES THE RIDE
SHORTLIST
245 Southwell - I like the fact this is a straight 8 and 3 the place race. Duster " should take the beating" states Spotlight .
Negatives - only has the one run as a 16/1 horse and came 2nd. Still learning the game. Fibresand debutant today having run on polytrack last time out - is this difference in surface negligible?
Royal Holiday potential market mover - can we assume this horse may take up one of the 3 places?
Remember YEadon - all looked rosey here in another maiden yet he didn't place. It's always tricky with 2 year olds learning -sometimes requires a leap of faith that they replicate previous sole run
Positives - 4/6 - - - 11/2 price gapper in the live market and strong at head of market
Straight 8 and 2 horses at 33/1 and 50/1 can hopefully be discounted
730 THIRSK - very strong form for Our Joe Mac here - 1.26 to place - another conundrum that this is another one time outer -form very well franked could be the clincher
750 WINDSOR
-Our beauchamp xerxes looks to have solid place chance under a confident jockey after plying his trade in much better class than this
820 WINDSOR - Point of light scapes a penalty for last win and is solid in the market for make it 4 - straight 8 -3 at 20/1 or bigger - Chris Catlin takes over - looks solid
ONE A DAY
Focus perhaps on the 2 traditional 8 runner and 3 place races -245 Southwell and 820 Windsor. Both seem to have their niggles but both are strong price gappers in races with outsiders and only 3 places so I will chance Duster today and hope that he replicates sole run.
Those squeamish about maidens after Yeadon's no show could wait til the 820 Windsor and ensure Point of Light remains strong in the market
No comments:
Post a Comment