Tuesday, 25 August 2009

25/8

Well Bagber won under Ryan Moore, and Real MAdrid - well - what can I say? 3-0 at half time - happy days indeed, and another goal for Benzema who's been knocking them in pre season

Thank God I swerved the Liverpool game -96% of the market I think was based around Liverpool yesterday and I think a few betting banks are worse for wear. That's one a day for you - get involved in just the one bet and leave
Also yesterday, some of the strong market leaders in the maidens did not perform -no surprises though - debutants and one time outers. The horse entered in group company scraped a 3rd place . Just shows how difficult maidens are to read and how difficult 2 year olds are to predict!!

As it's early , start with possible footy today
15:30 England Women vs Italy Women 4/9
The patriotic bet scenario here? Woman's football is technically poor which can lead to surprises and generally goals so I would be erring on a neutral bet here ( goals /correct score - any bet which involves the 2 sides?) 1.54 to win Italy 7.2 to lay IN RUNNING
17:00 Shakhtar vs Sivasspor 2/7
Europa league game tonight 1.36 to win. Sivasspor 11 to lay
18:00 Sweden Women vs Russia Women 1/3
Apparently THE team to beat in women's European international football so I suspect the odds can be relied upon here? 1.35 the win here and Russia 11.5 to lay
19:45 FC Zurich vs Ventspils 1/4
The odds for teams in the last Europa league round and UEFA cup rounds was absolutely spot on with all 4/9 shots and below winning with ease. Can we take this as the case again? 1.28 to win
19:45 Atlético Madrid vs Panathinaikos 4/9
A goal fest in the first round - can Athletico take advantage of Pana's poor away form
Could be a trader's dream this one? 1.44 the win and 1.23 over 1.5 goals -the latter involves both teams
19:45 West Ham vs Millwall 4/9
Team news the key here for a Hammers side who should dominate with 1st team-question marks over seriousness of the Carling Cup to the managers 1.45 the win and Millwall 8.6 to lay
19:45 Wolves vs Swindon 4/9
Premiership survival the main aim surely for the Wolves? 1.55 the win and 7.6 to lay
19:45 Portsmouth vs Hereford 2/5
Dismal start to the season. Meaningless competition but of greater importance could be a moral boosting home win?1.38 the win Hereford 11 to lay
19:45 QPR vs Accrington Stanley 4/11
Odds should signal easy home win- again team news the key 1.35 to win
19:45 Inverness CT vs Albion 1/5
Co-op Insurance Cup - easy home win for strong team? 1.24 to win NOT IN RUNNING
19:45 Alloa Athletic vs Dundee United 5/1 7/2 4/11
As above but away win 1.38 to win NOT IN RUNNING
With only 2 meetings on today, perhaps again we can gain that one a day through the football?

215 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Opatja, 5/1 Kingsben, 11/2 Don Pietro, 6/1 Bijou Dan, We´Re Delighted, 12/1 Andorn, Friendly Giant, 25/1 Par Avion, 33/1 Evelith Regent, 50/1 Scotch Warrior, 66/1 Orpen Bid, 100/1 Piccolo Pride.

DIOMED VERDICT: OPATJA may be good enough to defy a penalty.

Price gapper here under a penalty in this novices hurdle 1. 17 to place and 1.85 to win - possible trade in the win market -lay at 1.65 in anticipation of a good run?

245 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Magpie, 11/2 Good Effect, Safin, Star Tenor, 13/2 Itsallyours Al, 10/1 Jumeirah Jane, 12/1 Roman History, 14/1 Freedom Flying, 16/1 Dennick, Sands Of Barra, 20/1 Prince Mandala, 25/1 Sea Cove, Wyn Dixie, 33/1 Can´t Remember.

DIOMED VERDICT: GOOD EFFECT can improve on past hurdling displays on his debut for Tim Vaughan.

Now that's a price move. Good effect is 5/4 - - - - 11/2 in the live market and all red. Do bear in mind Mr Vaughan is again employing a 3lb claiming jockey and this is a class 5 selling handicap hurdle - but quite a gamble it would seem here! 1.48 to place for those who think a gamble is afoot

345 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Come Back To Me, 5/4 Word Of Warning, 20/1 Desert Soul, Private Affair, 66/1 Minstalad, Parisian Knight, 100/1 Jonnos Dream, Karinga King.

DIOMED VERDICT: COME BACK TO ME can make the most of the weight he receives from Word Of Warning, in what looks a virtual match.

Only 2 under 20/1 and Choc Thornton and Denis O'regan are 2 good jumps jockeys. faith here if chosing one both will place and there will be no surprises via an outsider or a fall from the principles 1.08 and 1.09 to place says it all about the possibilities here

SHORTLIST
The potential gamble is there for all to see, but remember this is a selling handicap hurdle and the gamble has a 3 lb claiming jockey
345 Sedgefield is extremely promising - the straight 8 runners here and involvement based on the assumption that there are no accidents and the front 2 will both place
Team news pretty much determines choices this evening in the Carling Cup , but a lay of Millwall stands out for me away to the Hamsters (1.12 shot equivalent)
1.23 for over 1.5 goals (tradeable) in the Athletico v Pana game is very enticing given the ding dong battle in Greece and the fact all is potentially to play for despite Athletico's advantage with the away goals BUT Pana's win on the night
Ladies football can be terrible in terms of tactics and techical ability which makes it a potential minefield for the bettor. BUT the favourites all won yesterday so the market called it well. The Swedes are apparently the team to beat so take the 1/3 (1.35) as accurate and a nice big price as well ( in a game which is tradeable) - perhaps 0-0 insurance bet at 17.5 if backing Swedes will cover potential scoreless game due to nerves or a dogged Russian side?
Shaktar have a good European pedigree and look to consolidate last year's great run in European competition - the hope is that home advantage will count

ONE A DAY
Probably worth doing an update regarding team news in both Scottish and English cup games.
I am going to put my faith in the Swedes and cover 0-0 too incase there is a bit of stage fright - also trading in running and getting out if Swedes score first
Will the Swedes make me look a right turnip? Will I not like the possible outcome?
345 Sedgefield is a great bet -select one horse ( me -I'd go with Robert Thornton), and hope he does not fall because he should place with ease if the market is accurate
Re the football, I may change my mind with team news which I should be able to get from the BETFAIR FOOTBALL FORUM and teams' individual websites.
But as things stands I hope the Swedish ladies do the businesss

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