The great run continues, albeit at unexciting prices at present, but it's always heartening at a footy team you back wins 3-0!
300 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Persian Storm, 3/1 Cordell, 6/1 Dichoh, Inside Trade, 8/1 Northern Desert, 9/1 Flying Gazebo, 12/1 Jonnie Skull, 33/1 Evianne.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There are reasons to think that CORDELL might be able to get the better of old rival Persian Storm |
7 runners but hopefully 3 places. Only 3 under 11/1 should be the ones to focus on.
UPDATE - 4th fav now a non runner
Still 3 places and 6 horses - a 50/50 race here.
Market 6/4 , 7/4 , 5/1, 10/1, 12/1 , 33/1
Front 2 are both being backed to the exclusion of the rest - again a top heavy market - which of the 2 market principles ( or both?) will NOT be beaten by 3 horses in a 6 horse race
This is a class 6 claimer and the profiles of these 2 are not encouraging as you would suspect for such a grade
330 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Carmenero, 4/1 Best One, 7/1 Boldinor, Pintano, 9/1 Geoffdaw, 10/1 Briannsta, 12/1 Scruffy Skip, 14/1 Deckchair, Star Strider, 20/1 Miss Pusey Street, 25/1 Merry May,av
| DIOMED VERDICT: CARMENERO (nap) is far from bulletproof but he has plenty in hand on recent evidence. |
2nd fav one of many non runners. Carmenero is a price gapper now - 11/8 - - - - - -7/1 but this is a class 6 5 furlong seller and the horse is " far from bulletproof" - Diomed is hardly spitting out confidence here is he?
UPDATE - 1.29 to place - price gap 11/8 - - - 6/1 still and strongly fancied in the live market. The place market is illiquid and I suspect the price may rise in the interim.
Was the original fav when there was 12 runners. There are now 8 runners and still a strong fav
Negatives - potential firm ground - 5 furlongs - class 6 seller
350 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Donaldson, 9/4 Carrick Oscar, 5/2 Tot Of The Knar, 11/2 Sendani, 33/1 Cengiz, 100/1 Marado.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CARRICK OSCAR (nap) can take advantage of the weight concession from the recent winners. |
5 horses race and 2 are 100/1 ,leaving 3 horses fighting out 2 places and the front 2 are Richard Johnson and AP McCoy. A difficult choice - which of these 3 will NOT place?
UPDATE - 1.42 , 2.04 , 1.26 the front 3 to place. Donaldson now 7/4 and backed . I would take note of the lack of confidence behind Carrick Oscar in the place market
450 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Present Gale, 9/2 Bantry Bere, 11/2 No Complaint, Ouragan De Prairie, 12/1 Contact Dancer, 16/1 The Walnut Tree.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PRESENT GALE is the only one of these with recent viable form. |
McCoy on a price gapper can normally be trusted, even though this is 2 places
UPDATE - still a strong price gapper - 1.28 to place but an illiquid market
Cinta
UPDATE
500 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Rough Sketch, 3/1 Venture Capitalist, 9/2 Penang Cinta, 6/1 Crazy Bold, 10/1 Dot´s Delight, 14/1 Barodine, Casablanca Minx, 16/1 Bari Bay, 25/1 Improper, Silver Surprise, 50/1 Spartan Dance.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Several to consider but the vote goes to ROUGH SKETCH. |
Of the betting forecast 4 who are under 10/1 originally, only Penang Cinta remains - and is ,naturally, the new strong fav.
A sign?1.28 to place
520 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Respective Way, 9/4 Pure Faith, 7/1 Minella For Beef, 12/1 Alverstone, 20/1 Back At The Ranch, Ruze, 33/1 Middleham Meg, Misty Kit, Taffys Diamond, 40/1 Redhotdoc, 50/1 Brecon Holly, Simbamead, 66/1 Diddley Dee, Penelope Pipstop.
| DIOMED VERDICT: RESPECTIVE WAY should be able to beat Pure Faith. |
BIG move for Simbarmead into 16/1 is worthy of respect in this bumper where the market is key.
600 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Fremen, 11/2 Jamieson Gold, 10/1 Welcome Approach, 33/1 Mangano, Reddy Ronnie.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FREMEN might ideally want more of a test but can't really be opposed given that credible opposition is lacking. |
Default selection today in a day of few opportunities? 1.24 to win and 1.07 to place - now battered into 1/5, 2/11, 1/6 in places
620 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Call To Arms, 6/4 Khattaab, 10/1 Revelator, 20/1 Durham Reflection, 100/1 Remember Dougie, Sandy Toes.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CALL TO ARMS looked promising at Thirsk and can take care of Khattaab, who also boasts some fancy entries. |
Well you all know my thoughts on Johnston juveniles prominent in the market? Call to Arms is one to follow it would seem - UPDATE - 1/2 in places and 1.11 to place
7OO wexford
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Tawaagg, 7/1 Macidoni, 8/1 Akadyr, Older And Wiser, Taking Part, 10/1 Conkering, Never Bold, 12/1 Spencer´s Hill, 16/1 If I Had Him, Raise A Row, 20/1 Days Of Glory, Sonic Power.
Price gapper for Mullins/Mullins and was backed to place by me with Ruby n board at Galway Festival (and he obliged ) 1.12 to place over the flat this time but price gapped to be very competitive
750 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Prince Siegfried, 15/8 Native Ruler, 9/2 Montaff, 8/1 Almiqdaad, 16/1 Midnight Cruiser, 20/1 Fullback, 33/1 Kaolak.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The 111-rated Prince Siegfried has to be feared but preference is for NATIVE RULER who may be suited by this drop back in trip and gives the firm impression that we've yet to see the best of him. |
Frankie Dettori has been very good on market leaders of late. Will this continue in this race with 2 non runners? 1.28 and 1.47 the front 2 to place .
805 WEXFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 For The Staff, 5/1 Luzdeluna, 7/1 Havanavich, 10/1 Mannin Beach, Satu, 12/1 Kackadoo, 14/1 Feel The Pinch, Maranda, Old Theatre Royal, The Hares Corner, 16/1 Clean Sweep, Fool´s Wildcat, Grian Blath, 20/1 Comeragh Vision, Lost In France, Walter Blue,
Price gapper 1/2 - 8/1 in the live market for Mullins/Mullins again placae market too illiquid at preent
FOOTBALL
| 17:00 | Dnipro vs Arsenal Kiev | 1.20 |
| 19:45 | AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam | 1.16 |
| 19:45 | Sporting Fingal vs Mervue United | 1.12 |
Sporting home record of 7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Mervue away record of 2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Should be an easy win, but this is Ireland and things are not normally as smooth as the odds suggest.
| 00:30 | Toronto vs Real Madrid | 7.00 | 4.33 | 1.33 |
Shoould have much too much for this lot
SHORTLIST
330 BRIGHTON - Carmenero is a strong price gapper in a weak race - 1.29 is worth consideration
350 WORCESTER - 3 horses and 2 places -I would consider the market leader I think. IS the 2.02 for Carrick Oscar to place a clue that we can discount him from our thoughts. McCoy v Johnson - there was an inspection at Worcester this morning which is always an ominous sign regarding the ground
500 BRIGHTON - the absence of 3 of the 4 who were under 10/1 in the betting forecast means we must now consider Penang Cinta whose course and distance form is 121
1.3 to place
600 MUSSELBURGH - Fremen picks himself - 1.07 to place - niggle regarding selling stakes but a HTB selection , clear by some 19 points on RPR 9 day course winner , "very hard to oppose"
620 HAYDOCK - Call to Arms looks to have the right credentials as a Johnston juvenile well fancied
AZ Alkmaar at 1.27 certainly stand out - at home this evening -only one game into the season and they have their scoring boots on - going down 3-2 away from home. Sparta lost 2-0 at home
2-0 head to heads latest score. One to trade after Az(HOPEFULLY) score first OR a straight bet on over 1.5 goals
Toronto v Real MAdrid - at the current 10, Toronto look a great lay for a presumed easy 1.10 return. Team news for Real ( are the big guns out) could sway things in favour of A straight back of Real
ONE A DAY
Fremen looks standout at 1.07 to place, albeit 2 places and I may consider doubling up with a lay of Toronto to boost the odds, but at the prices today, AZ Alkmaar at 1.27 to win ( and only if tradeable) and PEnang Cinta in the 500 BRighton at 1.35 to place could be the 2 to concentrate on.
Favour for me with AZ Alkmaar in the hope they have their scoring boots on and score the first goal-so I can trade out (potential ground concerns throughout the UK race courses)
Penang - is this too good to be true? Original 3rd fav - 1st, 2nd and 4th favs non runners - Penang is 121 at the course and distance - only 8 runners left and 1.35 to place -looks outstanding really. Paul Doe in the saddle. Will decide nearer 5pm as ,at present, the market is unclear regarding the other horses .
So , if you want a gamble, Penang is your man
If you want to keep the run going, then Fremen and lay Toronto double should come in
Or follow me with AZ Alkmaar (that's unless market vibes are sound on Penang)
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