17/8

As you were probably aware yesterday's effort was a little half hearted as I got Usain Bolt the night before. Cue a 3rd place in a horse race and 2 places when, in retrospect, there were far better opportunities yesterday

As George Orwell said " 3 place good, 2 place bad" -preerence must really be for 3 places if there is an opportunity

On to today and today's selection will be carrying my dosh so I'd better get it right

215 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Poet´s Voice, 4/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 9/2 Mata Keranjang, 7/1 Emerald Commander, Party Doctor, Vale Of York, 14/1 Sea Lord, 20/1 Beat Surrender, Planet Red, 50/1 Take It To The Max.

DIOMED VERDICT: Some highly promising sorts but ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL can confirm his Newmarket maiden superiority over Poet's Voice and Emerald Commander.

Mention for the fav here as Godolphin are in such good form. Beware then, for Vale of York under Ted Durcan too?
This is a typically competitive 2 year old race, and regardless of form of stables, there are plenty of rivals 1.43 to place poets

325 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Sea The Stars, 9/4 Mastercraftsman, 200/1 Georgebernardshaw, Set Sail,

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to envisage defeat for the outstanding SEA THE STARS.

\he's scared them all away
But Aiden O'Brien is willing to give it a go
1.03 to place and 1.07 to place Mastercraftsman
Of interest too is the win market.Sea the stars is 1.31 to win and surely will trade shorter in running
Ditto MAstercraftsman? 4.2 at present and , at the prices, the only legitimate challenger. Surely that 4.2 will trade lower if he puts up a performance?

515 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Totally Devoted, 7/2 Crystal Idea, 4/1 Blue Ridge Lane, 9/2 Ceannline, 6/1 Mysouff, 8/1 Gold Blossom, 10/1 Zeruth, 12/1 Hildor, Killoughternane, Prince Chaparral, 14/1 Best Pleased, 16/1 Airspace, Ellie Bay, 20/1 Celtic Life, 33/1 Secret Memoirs,

I might go down this evening to this beautiful course. Blue ridge lane under Weld/Smullen has leapfrogged into early favouratism and his plced form is ultra consistent. - illiquid market at present

610 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Always Bold, 11/2 Quedillac, 8/1 Tarabela, 9/1 Come West, 16/1 Thematis, 20/1 Tuesday´s Gone, 33/1 Victory Parade, 66/1 Treasury Chief, 100/1 Afectionatesqueeze.

DIOMED VERDICT: ALWAYS BOLD should be hard to beat.

Price gapper here, and one of only 2 under 16/1 in the live market. 3 mile novice hurdle a slight niggle but good to see positive Diomed statement 1.08 to place

620 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Mikhail Glinka, 3/1 Famous Warrior, 6/1 Eireannach, Shabassh, 13/2 Fammi Sognare, 7/1 Todd´s Forge, 8/1 Cheval Rouge, 10/1 Red Fighter, 14/1 Light Years Ahead.

Ballydoyle father and son on the fav who has shortened in the betting. albeit with 6 hours to go - illiquid market

630 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Candy Ride, 7/2 Supaverdi, 4/1 Insolence, 7/1 Aphrodite´s Rock, Phoenix Enforcer, 8/1 Mejala, 14/1 Maria Di Scozia, 20/1 Naomh Geileis.

DIOMED VERDICT: A chance is taken on APHRODITE'S ROCK, who did best of those held up at Folkestone before too keen off a slow pace last time.

3 non runners and Insolence remains for Ryan Morre and Michael stoute - interesting if 3 places - 1.26 to place and 3 places and 5 runners but a tight old contest

700 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Atlaal, 5/1 Bilash, 10/1 Astrophysical Jet, 12/1 Lava Lamp, 25/1 Citrus Star, Gypsy Jazz, Spinning Spirit, 33/1 Regal Rave, 50/1 Antoella, 200/1 Azzez Life, Micky´s Knock Off.

DIOMED VERDICT: This should be straightforward for ATLAAL before he steps up in class.

Always a risk taking once raced 2 year olds at short prices but this one should place, shouldn't he? 1.08 to place

800 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Bollin Judith, 7/2 Drop The Hammer, 6/1 La Polka, 8/1 Deuce, 10/1 My Les, Sadaska, Sergeant Pink, 12/1 Bubses Boy, 16/1 Highland Storm, Petella, 33/1 Royal Arthur.

DIOMED VERDICT: BOLLIN JUDITH should have plenty going for her at this sort of trip.

Price gapper and very well backed - 13/8 - - - 7/1 in the live market for this class 6 0-65 handicap - in order to qualify ideally this price gap should have appeared in th betting forecast - 1.39 to place

FOOTBALL

16:45

Flora Tallinn vs Kuressaare

1/14

Again the price signifies goals perhaps?

19:45

Celtic vs Arsenal

11/4

12/5

evens

Under 4.5 goals here? Important European game and the insurance by the home side in not conceding an away goal must be paramount
LAy Celtic/Celtic at 10 in the halftime/full time market?
1.13 under 4.5 goals.

19:45

Sunderland vs Chelsea

11/2

13/5

4/7

Steve Bruce v top 4 = under 2.5 goals?
LAy first goal odds 0-10 minutes at 5.9 - same as a 1.19 bet
Lay Sunderland at 8 - 1.13 bet equivalent
Under 2.5 goals is 1.88 to trade out at 1.68?
Under 4.5 goals is 1.13

19:45

Wigan vs Wolves

8/11

5/2

4/1

Lay Wolves here? 6.2 same as a 1.18 bet

19:45

Waterford Utd vs Crumlin Utd

2/9

Held to a draw last time, surely Waterford can make home advantage count tonight in the FAI CUp
1.26 to win and NOT IN RUNNING

SHORTLIST
325 York
Must be a 2 horse race surely but how to approach it. 1.03 Sea the stars to place
1.07 MAster to place -should come in that latter one.
Sea the stars 1.31 to win should surely trade lower - I'd be looking to get out at 1.15
BUT What of Mastercraftsman, with the 4.2 remain throughout the race if he's looking good?Perhaps a lay bet in at 3.8 for a nice 1.40 equivalent bet? Or even get out at 4 for a 1.20 bet?
610 WORCESTEr - Always Bold should oblige - 1.08 is a tad short for a 3 mile jumps event ( compared say to 1.07 MAstercraftsman to place in a 4 horse race where 2 are 100/1!!)
700 NOTT - Atlaal has the right connections and entries and again is a tad short at 1.08 for a once raced 2 year old ( still learning!!)
Laying Sunderland at 8 looks tempting as does under 4.5 goals at 1.13 when Steve Bruce takes on the top 4

ONE A DAY
Must revolve around the 325 York, but what angle to take. I am going to try and back MAstercraftsman in the win market at 4.2 and put a lay in at 4 for an equivalent 1.20 bet( might even try 3.8) - any positive signs and the 4.2 will reduce
Safer to place back Mastercraftsman at 1.07 and take your medicine.