Wednesday, 12 August 2009

12/8

As it's a little early for the horse markets, let's start with the footy.
Yesterday was no problems, Murray pissed it, Berkeley won, and Mission Control won both under Dickie Johnson who has found the winning thread again after his 6 timer the other week.

Sheff Utd lost but this was one a day after all so no problems

16:30 Andorra U21 vs Romania U21 16/1 7/1 1/16
Prefer the full international teams but this should oblige with ease and goals should be the order of the day - highly illiquid market and 1.08 the win which is perfectly reasonable - this game is in running which is interesting and could ensure some liquidity nearer the off

17:00 Switzerland U21 vs Estonia U21 1/5 9/2 8/1
1.26 match odds market here - another illiquid market -

17:00 Azerbaijan vs Germany 16/1 6/1 1/12

1.11 on Betfair is so enticing - this is a MEANINGFUL game ,not an international friendly. 1.15 for over 1.5 goals - am I missing something? Looks a big price that.
Germany to be winning at half time is 1.39 which is very enticing again.
1/12 indicates a win by about 2-0 or 3-0 at the very least. Correct score 2 market is up -Betfair expects goals.

17:00 Faroe Islands vs France 33/1 9/1 1/100
Faroe now have Brian Kerr, the old Ireland manager at the helm, and France might be layable for a throwaway £6 to win £100, or backing under 2.5 goals with trading in mind. BRian Kerr is a good manager but has nothing really to work with so an ultra defensive stance must be his priority.
The French are reknowned bottlers too and I wouldn't trust them with stolen money

18:15 Estonia vs Brazil 11/1 9/2 1/6
Team news important but with the Confederations Cup matches fresh in the mind, Brazil should oblige. I would suspect they are playing with the European based Brazilian team only. 1.2 for the straight win

19:30 Liechtenstein vs Portugal 14/1 11/2 1/9

Are the big guns playing? If so, then 1.12 is reasonable for one a day purposes. The Pork and Cheese have been underperformers recently - a friendly?

19:45 Slovenia vs San Marino 1/50 7/1 50/1

2-3 , 3-0 scoreline here given the price - should be a cricket score at 1/50 1.1 for halftiem/fulltime looks great -another betfair market ruined really by NO MONEY in it.

20:30 FYR Macedonia vs Spain 7/1 3/1 1/3

Superb Spain take on MAcedonia.
1.37 to win and tradeable should they score first.

MULTIPLE?
1Azerbaijan v Germany (Backing Germany @ 1.08)
2Estonia v Brazil (Backing Brazil @ 1.17)
3Liechtenstein v Portugal (Backing Portugal @ 1.09)
4FYR Macedonia v Spain (Laying FYR Macedonia @ 15.27)

4-Folds

SelectionsOdds*StakePotential win
1,2,3 and 41.5£100.00£50.00

Looks very enticing here - any weak link? Portugal perhaps
All games here are in running which is great as we can trade out and manage the multiple to cover stake

230 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Gallant Eagle, 7/2 Mon Cadeaux, 4/1 Carnaby Street, 5/1 Dafeef, 7/1 Cansili Star, 8/1 Dubai Set, 16/1 King Of Windsor, 25/1 Folly Bridge, 33/1 Bathwick Gold, Wet Feet, 50/1 Skyflight, 100/1 Draco Boy, Lilyannabanana.

DIOMED VERDICT: A competitive-looking maiden but GALLANT EAGLE and Mon Cadeaux may be the two to concentrate on.

Only 5 under 20/1 here and Godolphin fav again ( failed to place yesterday) - one of those very tricky maidens with many debutants and horses open to improvement so this race really not top of the list 1.54 and 1.6 these 2 to place does not instill huge confidence

240 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Love Delta, 2/1 Tominator, 8/1 Gritstone, 10/1 Muwalla, 12/1 Alotago, Dahes, 14/1 Robens Rock, 20/1 I´Lldoit, 33/1 Escape Artist, 40/1 Gadobout Dancer, 66/1 Ainthegorgeous, Moonlight Blaze, 100/1 Eeny Mac.

DIOMED VERDICT: Royal Lodge entry LOVE DELTA has plenty of improvement in him but Tominator ran a blinder last time and is a serious riva

Love delta the quite obvious live market fancy here - 10/11 in places - a Mark Johnston juvenile here too which is a positive in this maiden 1.19 Love Delta to place - these races are usually avoided but Johnston juvenile + fancy entries+ well backed odds on+ good initial run = good place prospect?

405 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ave, 5/1 Cape Amber, Splashdown, 11/2 Sweet Lilly, 11/1 Perfect Star, 14/1 Lady Deauville, 16/1 Wymering File, 20/1 Sterling Sound, Syvilla, 33/1 Cosmea,

DIOMED VERDICT: AVE (nap) is begining to live up to her looks and has a good chance to go one better than at York.

Ryan Morre for Stoute on a price gapper in a listed race - interesting 1.33 to place tells you this listed race has no donkeys in it. It's a big price for a Ryan Moore/Stoute price gapper though for those tempted

500 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Point Of Light, 9/2 Venture Capitalist, 10/1 Khayar, Royal Bet, 14/1 Diktalina, 16/1 Hi Fling, 20/1 Mymateeric, 28/1 Pedasus.

DIOMED VERDICT: Assuming he will show no ill-effects for a fifth outing within just under three weeks, POINT OF LIGHT should be able to complete a five-timer.

8 down to 6 runners -can Point of Light do it again? My concern is not the weight ( he remains on a winnable mark ) ,it's the number of races he has had BUT now it's a 50 /50 race and 2nd fav is out. 1.06 to place here with the easier task thanks to the non runners

515 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Purple Heart, 9/4 Mister Tee, 11/2 Rightside, 8/1 Indus Valley, Sebastian Flyte, 12/1 Concert Piece, 14/1 Takajan, 16/1 Alebob, Classic White, 20/1 Big Bad Billy Bob, Rosa Dieci, Sing A Lovesong, Thundern Lightning, Vaigly Xaar.

Expect the usual improvement from BAllydoyle juvenile Purple Heart in what looks a match with Mister Tee
1.21 to place but illiquid market

545 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Knight Eagle, 5/1 Mark Twain, 6/1 Bada Bling, Rosa Muscosa, 8/1 Pilgrim Dancer, Todd´s Forge, 10/1 Hero Of Waterloo, Lukes Desire, 14/1 Rockin N Reelin, 20/1 City Cat.

Ballydoyle's MArk Twain now 2/1 fav - take the hint? illiquid place market

620 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bluie, 9/2 Diamond Laura, 11/2 On The Bounty, 6/1 Cherry Bee, 10/1 Cambuslang, High Rolling, 11/1 Whispered Times, 12/1 Miami Gator.

DIOMED VERDICT: BLUIE (nap), whose Goodwood win has worked out so well, can defy the higher mark.

Price gapper here and 3rd fav out makes life easier - " big chance" says Diomed - negative - nursery - effectively a 2 year old handicap 1.19 to place - 7 runners and 3 places

635 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Al Ghazal, 7/2 White Devil, 4/1 Ultravox, 6/1 Krymian, 7/1 Our Boy Barrington, 14/1 Finest Reserve, 16/1 Champagne Style, 20/1 Kerchak, 33/1 Dinkie Short, Henry San, Mahjong Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: AL GHAZAL and Ultravox, the only ones with Group-race entries, may dominate.

FAv odds on in places for Godolphin and Frankie 1.22 to place Al Ghazal

720 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Chinese White, 7/2 She´s Our Mark, 5/1 Festival Princess, 11/2 Timabiyra, 8/1 Always Be True, 10/1 Choose Me, 12/1 Roman Empress, 16/1 Cristal Island, Wanna, 20/1 Crossing, 25/1 Dollar Chick.

The ever dependable Weld/Smullen on fav but watch out for She's Our Mark who has been well backed this early Another illiquid market here

SHORTLIST
240 BEV - Love Delta 1.19 and backed this Johnston horse but race type is niggle
405 Salisbury - Ave -1.3 is enticing with Moore onboard but listed race means the opponents are no mugs
500 Yarmouth - Point of light 1.06 - price perhaps too low now but is a 50/50 shot
515 Gowran - Purple Heart can be expected to run well as Ballydoyle's do after an initial run
Azerbaijan v Germany - a World Cup game and 1.15 over 1.5 goals is a good bet, 1.11 the straight win is great

ONE A DAY
Some great horse racing potentials but as we're looking for unexciting solid bets then the efficient Germans at 1.1 v Azerbaijan looks as safe as houses as this is NOT a friendly and is in running. For those seeking a bit more, then half time is v enticing at 1.39 and over 1.5 goals is available at 1.1`5 - both are tradeable(NOTE not half time/.full time BUT HALF TIME MARKET is tradeable).

Horse racing wise - well I would risk Love delta I think as my hypothetical one a day horse racing bet , but my real one will be, again, The Germans






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