29 NOV

A day of 4th places for a couple of selections proved very frustrating - Orchard Supreme 4th and Stormy Skye 4th meant we don't get the place payments for each way bets. Plume D-oudaires was a casualty of jumps racing being pulled up. LAmbrini leader again 4th beaten to the places by a 50/1 and 33/1 shot.
On a brighter note, Caprio won. Porto's equaliser ensured that the lay of Liverpool could be salvaged for in running traders. I got out at odds of 2. Liverpool scored when their odds were 2.42. I told you they make life difficult, but the game didn't go as I had envisioned. Nevertheless it was a successful lay despite the 4-1 final scoreline!.In retrospect, the 1.67 about Chelski was huge given the history of the fixture and the Special One's departure after 1-1. A convincing Chelsea performance showed that the games Rosenborg had against Valencia were down to a bad Valencia side rather than a huge improvement in Rosenborg.So the evening brought some profit from a frustrating day for the each ways.Today I'm doing the blog a little earlier - 7am so have no access to early prices as I would prefer so it's just down to the betting forecast for me and any info I can get from SpotlightSoft ground at Carlisle is not what I want to see starting offA quick mention for the 1250 - yes you guessed it, a short priced fav in a maiden hurdle in Checkerboard -now with the soft ground I cannot possibly have this horse and he looks primed to be taken on from an each way perspectiveBETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Checkerboard, 9/2 Raise Your Game, 6/1 Sinatas, 10/1 Meertrix, 14/1 Film Festival, 16/1 Moonhawk, 20/1 Besi, Greenbelt, Jazrawy, Joshua´s Gold, Ninetyninetreble, Watch The Wind, 66/1 Georgedoubleyou, La Troussardiere, 100/1 Lazzoom, Naval Attache.

Obvious candidates in Raise your game and Sinatas - 16 runners is a lot of runners for an each way race and 3 the place - soft ground will lead me to assume that there will be a bigger priced place horse. A no bet race for me

120 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Akilak, 5/2 Stagecoach Diamond, 7/2 Cantgeton, 5/1 Brave Rebellion, 14/1 King Mak, 16/1 Minster Shadow, 20/1 Our Man In Bangkok, 100/1 Panthers Run, Tipp Mid West .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The frustrating AKILAK is never going to be one for the rent money but he runs his best races when fresh and this looks the best time to catch him. Stagecoach Diamond and Cantgeton have achieved most among his rivals but stand by for improvement from Brave Rebellion

With soft ground preference is to leave CArlisle alone but here we have a 10 runner race with 2 obvious outsiders and Our Man in Bangkok who we can hopefully discount.
I will chance Brave Rebellion each way here, price drift not withstanding having no access to early prices
155 CARLISLE - Jemez is one of those "who ran a blinder on his hurdling debut after a long layoff and should take plenty of beating provided he doesn't bounce" - a slight price gap 11/8 - - 3/1 - again the worry is the "bounce factor" especially with soft ground. Could be a good place only candidate but the niggle is the ground again
300 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Le Rouge Fatal, 11/4 Kingsbury, 4/1 Etched In Stone, 13/2 Aviation, 7/1 Hi Dancer, 16/1 Storymaker, 20/1 Radar, 40/1 Moyne Pleasure .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Le Rouge Fatal sluiced up here last week and is the obvious starting point under a penalty but KINGSBURY shaped really well on his reappearance, also goes well here and is preferred. Etched In Stone will look interesting off this feather weight if the market reflects any confidence.[PJ]SAtraight 8 runner field - can we discount Radar and Moyne pleasure? If so that leaves 6 . BEcause of the soft ground I will leave out the obvious and plump for Hi Dancer, again assuming the 7/1 in the live market is not significantly increased

1240 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Shore Thing, 6/1 Le Chiffre, 15/2 Red Birr, 10/1 Genari, 16/1 Captain Becket, 33/1 Popcorn Rosie, Rhetoric, Rock Star Appeal, Shava, 40/1 Golden Sprite, 50/1 Listen Son, 66/1 Forest Lodge, Grand Sefton .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shore Thing did enough on his debut to suggest he is well up to taking a this sort of race but LE CHIFFRE was of similar ability on the Flat and it may be worth chancing that his stamina holds out on this easy track.[JN]Oh why me? - Yes another maiden hurdle and another price gapper in that sphere.
Spotlight says
" Shore Thing Withdrawn from first three intended hurdling starts but showed what he could do when finally allowed to take his chance at Uttoxeter at the beginning of the month; clear form pick on that evidence and stayed well on the Flat, though did not always convince with his attitude in that sphere; still hard to beat."

Yes we have the hard to beat in there, but you'll see in verdict that he has not chosen Shore thing as his black type selection. So what to do? The betting forecast indicates more quantity than quality and many who can be discounted. With 8 at 33/1 or bigger Shore thing may be worth chancing - preference is for the back and lay off in running as I can see the horse being at the business end of the race. The " hard to beat" sways me from swerving this maiden hurdle shortie.

110 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ardesia, 5/1 Ful Of Grace, Mujamead, 6/1 Dr Dream, 8/1 Watch Out, 33/1 Acosta, Straight Face, 50/1 Fashion Accessory .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is a little surprising to see ARDESIA down at this level quite so soon following two fair efforts in novice company and he's expected to make the most of it.[AWJ] Ardesia Four Flat starts in Ireland earned a measly rating of 47 but made a promising start to hurdling on soft ground at Uttoxeter (accounted for subsequent winner) and it wasn´t a bad effort in defeat at Leicester last time considering the penalty; hard to beat down at this level.

Another hard to beat price gapper - almost a default bet for me when I see the trigger words "hard to beat" - a drop in grade further strengthens the case for backing as does a smallish field.

140 TAUNTON
At 1.38, Desert Quest is worth a speculative lay in this beginners chase although he should win with ease for Sam Thomas and Paul Nicholls. Sometimes small fields can bring about errors and it will take just one mistake for Desert Quest's odds to rise and allow for a bit of trading. This is a throw away bet "in the hope that................." rather than a nailed on lay

350 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Mickmacmagoole, 13/2 Sovietica, 7/1 Meet The Legend, 8/1 Earth Man, 14/1 Grave Doubts, Roby De Cimbre, 16/1 Silverhay, 20/1 Bay Hawk, Critical Stage, Ready Response, Welsh Main, 25/1 Nayodabayo, 66/1 Wun Chai .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Yet another race that revolves around MICKMACMAGOOLE. He should enjoy this ground better than that he raced on at Kempton two days ago and even a repeat of that effort could be good enough if still able to produce his best after a busy time of it. Sovietica and Earth Man could offer the biggest threats.[JN]
Chosen a couple of days ago and can race 7lb lower today but I mentioned the bounce factor with regards to another horse earlier on and can't have Mick today. Earth Man could be a viable each way alternative but this is a large field

340 UTTOXETER - MEndosino looks to be a good place only option here in light of his previous victory over Mickmacmagoole who runs again today.

FOOTY
If it ain't broke don't fix it - Gary MEgson's stance on Bolton who returned to in your face football with a great win over Man Utd and I cannot see them losing at home tonight, team selection not withstanding. A first team should ensure a good game this evening and the 8/13 is reasonable, and I will wade in with a trade in mind if Bolton can secure an early goal.
An over 2.5 goal trade looks good in the Athletico MAdrid v Aberdeen game - alas I cannot see the Scottish revival ,as shown by Celtic last night, being replicated against a classy Athletico. Again, I would want to see the first team here. This is another trade, and an early goal should ensure the over 2.5 goal odds will reduce.
My shortlist of good things, as long as first teams are played, include Zenit St PEtersburg, Spurs, and Getafe who I put up at 11/4 the other day and they lead 1-0 only for another shocking error to produce a late equaliser.
In each of these games, I would expect the in running markets to be open so trading is the viable option for me. All of the above have one thing in common, bar Zenit, and that's a change of management improving performance - Ramos at Spuds, Laudrup at Getafe. A good bet would be to lay the opponents in a multiple (back the lays) -this should increase the odds and we have a good chance of the bet coming off.We get odds of 1.47 if we lay Nurnberg, Aberdeen, HApoel, AEB and Aris.