10/11

The red highlights for my 3 each ways didn't transfer to the blog yesterday - apologies - I would have missed out Annie Fleetwood ( not a traditional selection as per normal), and the one in the 7 runner race because the bookies would only pay 2 the place. But that's by the by.
DAhindar won at 1/2, Charlie George got his hatrick ( so watch out for him next time as a possible lay if out in handicap company), I called Double BAnded right - he managed 2nd place - another multiple handicap winner bits the dust. Northern Boy got the better of Encores - that "price clip" I talked about proved ultimately correct. Points of View - I asked " will this horse win again?" - Answer - NO! You see how difficult it is to guage these multiple winners. I called Points of View and Double Banded right, but CHarlie George, another with the same profile, wins.
Sorry about not making clear my 3 selections yesterday. Lusaka de Pembo 2nd at 5/1, Annie Fleetwood was down to 8/1so a definite gamble but the horse fell - that's JUMPS for you! BAtchworth BEau 7/2 in betting forecast - out to 16/1 - an obvious sign not to back the horse for any one following the live market, but I couldn't possibly have known this at time of writing. 410 FOntwell - very interesting market. Cashman was 16/1 in the betting forecast and went off 9/4 2nd favourite and won - a classic gamble!. With Tot o Whiskey a non runner (original fav) this meant Ten Carat went off at 13/8 - not really a n each way p[rice, BUT he placed. 7/2 in the morning with a full field was a lot better but with the fav gone, obviously he wouldn't have remained 7/2. Lord Rosskit placed at 5/1 and HArbour Bluies placed at 13/2. A case of treading water yesterday with some unforeseen withdrawals and a faller skewing the results. 4 horses placed from 6 I'm happy with as it protects the betting bank as we wait for the next winner
On to today and caution with the usual Saturday mayhem
PRICE GAPPERS
100 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Premier Danseur, 5/1 Benedetto, 11/2 Minus Fifteen, 6/1 Wise Hawk, 8/1 Asian Lady, 14/1 Novellen Lad, 20/1 Beauchamp Wizard, Royal Acclamation, 25/1 Embra, 33/1 Be Superior, 100/1 Tendulkar´s Diva .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably the weaker division and a decent opportunity for PREMIER DANSEUR who can be rated a good deal better than the bare form of last week's debut second at Catterick. He may have most to fear from BenedettoA maiden race - many debutants - a favourite based on one previous run -a race like this must be looked at with the live market because of the debutants so a no bet for me.
230 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Breaking Silence, 5/1 Eye Candy, 6/1 Chelsea Harbour, Zum See, 7/1 Davenport Democrat, 8/1 Merdeka, 12/1 Slim Pickings .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BREAKING SILENCE (nap) looks much the most likely solution to a handicap that has cut up badly, leaving his trainer Tom Taaffe with three of the seven runners. A useful novice hurdler last season, he has always given the impression that he would prosper over fences, and the evidence is that he has gone in the right direction since suffering an early mishap on his chasing debut at Galway. He won a Listowel novice event in good style, and appeared to have a bit in hand when beating his main market-rival A Good Excuse at Punchestown in his first handicap, form that has been well advertised by Light On The Broom. Won last twice is the concern here as is the fact the traiiner has 2 other entries - what chance he engineers the bigger price to victory and has a crafty punt on it? Hmmmm - Suspicious Minds! I'll leave Breaking Silence alone because he's another multiple handicap winner despite being napped here.
400 WINCANTON - a mention for HElls BAy in the bumper, for Walsh and Nicholls. BUT there are a lot of debutants here and you're backing on reputation
There are a few with price gaps today but they appear in race types that are unappealing, or small fields ,or in races where they're returning from an absence or debuting over a particular code so I haven't listed them.
EACH WAY
If you have the ability to follow the live market, then seeing an each way price reduce to 13/8 should mean concentration on the place only market, or looking out for market movers like Cash man. THis comes naturally for me but will require a little diligence to spot these. With Tot O Whiskey a none runner yesterday, this was a no play for me from an each way perspective. Too, we must prepare for the odd faller. 2 so far in my selections since Jumps started in ernest - yes v frustrating because we'll never know!
1230 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Incomparable, 7/2 Alwaabel, Omnicat, 4/1 Horatio Carter, 7/1 Orange Pip, 8/1 Signora, 33/1 Persistent, 50/1 Chalford, Climaxtackledotcom, Jumpin Johnnie, 66/1 Super Tuscan,
A maiden race so shocks can occur. Looks a 6 horse race with the horses below 33/1. Horatio CArter for me each way looks positioned to place at least.
340 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Inchnadamph, 3/1 Kasthari, 5/1 Dr Sharp, 7/1 Backbord, 10/1 Chocolate Caramel, Ned Ludd, 14/1 Bulwark, 16/1 Dium Mac,
8 runner field, shortish priced fav, and 2 outsiders whose prices in the early market indicate they are unfancied. Backbord looks placed to be competitive , hjust outside the favs and just before the double figures.
1235 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 General Ledger, 5/2 Valentines Lady, 11/4 The Shy Man, 12/1 Breaking Storm, 20/1 Buckstruther, Lockstockandbarrel, 33/1 Craiglands, Cupid´s Mission, More Equity, 50/1 Spivitus, 100/1 Daniel´s Dream, New Source, 200/1 More Shennanigans .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Valentines Lady is the type to pay her way over hurdles but she's bound to come on for this experience and might just struggle to cope with GENERAL LEDGER, who shaped as though a drop back to this sort of trip would suit when second over a testing 3m1f on his hurdling bow. The weight he receives from likeable The Shy Man can prove decisive.A big field is a concern for the each way punt, but if the betting forecaster is accurate, this involves the first 3 (4 at a push) The Shy MAn each way for me
155 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Atomic Winner, 11/2 Lemon Silk, Souriceau, 6/1 Bring It On Home, 15/2 Apache Chant, Daltaban, Etoile D´Or, 16/1 Beckenham´s Secret.
An interesting each way race. 4 debutants in this jumps race . The last 2 look priced as outsiders in the early market, as does Apache Chant. This leaves 5 horses to chose from to place. BRing it on home each way for me 4th in the betting forecast.

FOOTBALL
THe game that interest me is the Liverpool game - 2/7 an over reaction to the 8-0 capitulation or a sign Fernando Torres is due back? A characterisitc with the Liverpool side, mid week not withstanding, is an ability to make things difficult for themselves. I predict Fulham will be all out ,erm, defense, in this game, and like Brum and Wigan, set up for a keep a clean sheet for as long as possible. Giving Fulham a 1.5 goal start on the ASians looks a reasonable bet for me. Alternatively , from a trader's perspective, laying Liverpool at 1.3 to trade off at a slightly higher price to longer the game remains at 0-0 could be good.
Barcellona away to GEtafe will be a difficult game for Barca. The last time I saw GEtafe,luck was just not on their side against Real MAdrid where they hit the woodwork on several occasions. I will be backing under 2.5 goals in this game as I think BArca will take a while to get through the stout defense.
Interestingly, all of NEwcastles' last 6 games have been over 2.5 goals, and SUnderland have failed to score in only one of their last 6. An interesting derby and I will be laying Newcastle here I think with a view to trading
BEware Valenicia this evening - a possible lay for me at home -beaten twice by Rosenburg, Murcia may put up a fight. This will be a quick trade - lay early and back off, hopefully, after 10-15 mins if a goal hasn't been scored
Derby have their work cut out again against West Ham side surprising because they play well with a huge injury list. I am unconvinced by West Ham's forward line and will opt for an unders trade here ,under 2.5 goals, for the first half