11/11

LEt's start with the football. Yes West Ham won 5-0 but the unders trade would have come off great in the first 35 minutes. It's all about the market's reaction and trading it. Luck would have played a part in your determining when to get out of this trade in the first half. Well done Getafe - it pays to watch La Liga sometimes and not go by previous scorelines because they don't tell the story - I should have been brave and backed Getafe rather than plump for the under 2.5 goals but it paid off! Not so with chokers Fulham who have a psychological problem with the number 80 - 80 minutes that it - all of the previous good work went south! The asian bet was looking rosy as well. The lay of Liverpool at 1.28 paid off , as the odds increased incrementally with time. I only hope again that you didn't get greedy and traded out after an hour or so for a green screen. Laying Newcastle was great as Sunderland scored first meaning the Toon's odds rocketed up enabling a nice easy trade and green screen. Valencia must have had a rocket up their arses after mid week and I was a little too presumptous regarding Murcia's ability to exploit any lack of confidence.So, with the football , it really depended on your decisions in the end regarding when to trade out - because with a large proportion of the bets, the oppportunities presented themselves within the 90 minutes ( apart from Valencia although I did say 10-15 mins and they scored in the 12th - d'oh!)As to the horses, well the 2 price gappers won although I had reservations about backing them - bloody typical that! PRice DAnseur only just though but he still won. Hell's BAy did win at 4/6 for the powerful Ruby/Nicholls partnership.Each ways - Horatio Carter came 6th, BAckbord was a non runner, te Shy MAn won at 4/1, Bring it on home came 2nd at 7/2, another pleasing set of results, although, of course, I would prefer them all to place if they don't win, to conserve the betting bank.Hereford's card is full of juvenile novices, maiden hurdles ( you know how much I love them) and beginners chases - I'll get me coat.! Sowdrey in the first should oblige but 4/9 , I'll let him! - another hurdling debutant1235 LIMERICKBETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Schindler´s Gold, 5/1 The Man Himself, 6/1 Penny´s Bill, 12/1 Emotional Melody, Reens Pike, Ten To Twelve, 14/1 Sea Of Moyle, Storm Averted, 16/1 Ceka Dawn, 20/1 Blazing Furze, Caher Lass, Iain´s River, Laurens Way, Pharaway Dawn, Tough Justice, 25/1 Its Mint, Oscar´s Emerald, Shandarnay ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SCHINDLER'S GOLD looks the clear pick of these. The Oscar Schindler gelding is from the family of The Illiad and can be rated a good jumping prospect for Tom Taaffe after an encouraging third to smart bumper horse Meadow Vale in a 24-runner event at Punchestown in April. It was a decent contest, and among those behind were The Black Lion, who won at Gowran just three days later and the well-regarded Jered, a recent winner over hurdles.\n Typical of the type of races we have to look at today - a big field maiden hurdle and a favourite installed because of a decent bumper run ( not over obstacles). Those looking to back will be swayed by the odds against price because of field size and race tyep ,while layers will see the field size and race type and think the % call is to oppose as , in the heat of battle, a maiden hurdler could be prone to mistakes. A no play for me ( which probably leans me towards the lay side , albeit trading in running)
350 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Granite Man, 9/2 Harry May, 7/1 Ravenscar, 8/1 Mystic Glen, Physical Force, 12/1 Fairy Skin Maker, 14/1 Aliba, 20/1 Log On Intersky, 33/1 Champagne Rossini .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GRANITE MAN is no rock-solid proposition given his jumping frailties but today's smaller field should be in his favour and he's basically handicapped to trot up if finding any momentum over his fences.[AWJ]

"HAndicapped to trot up" - sounds intriguing. MAy be worth a small interest in th hope that he does trot up and his " jumping frailties" are left behind

Central House in the 255 Navan may be worth siding with particularly if he finds the form that beat Moscow Flyer. A small field size is on our side, but these are decent animals in opposition

EACH WAYS
140 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Soviet Sceptre, 3/1 Football Crazy, 11/2 Brave Bugsy, 14/1 Yenaled, 16/1 Ballynattin Buck, Kadam, 20/1 Giles, Willy, 25/1 Trackattack, 33/1 Lisbalabbey Lad .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Soviet Sceptre is not one for the faint-hearted, particularly given his recent mishaps, and it may be worth chancing that FOOTBALL CRAZY can show a little of his former abilitFootball Crazy is out as is GIles and the significant change in odds is for Kadam, now at 7/2. The other horse of interest from an each way perspective is BRave Bugsy who remains at 11/2. I will, though, chance Kadam here - a potential gamble as he has a 500+ day absence to overcome in a poor seller here. Despite the 2nd favs absence his odds should not have dropped that much
120 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Lord On The Run, 7/2 Osako D´Airy, 4/1 Telegonus, 9/2 Oeil D´Estruval, 6/1 Oops, 14/1 Roman Candle, 16/1 Hardybuck, 20/1 He´s My Man, Miss Shred Easy.
This looks to concern 5 in another unappealing betting medium - conditiona jockeys and amateur riders handicap hurdle
Again, it's lucky dip time and Telegonus each way for me

Wholly unappealing races today. There is a suspicion in the back of my mind that KAdam could be a bookmaker manufactured gamble to suck in the mugs like me (or I've been watching the X Files too much!)