21/11

Pindar and Ballad maker did nothing as the front 2 in the market hogged the 1-2 place leaving little chance of any of my selections placing. The ground again was a concern - seeing it live on TV really puts you off betting. The early market movers are not worth putting up so earely in the day - it is a fruitless exercise. MAtcho Pierji placed in a race won by a 66/1 horse with 33/1 2nd.
Rich Kid came 2nd in a 2 year old claimer.
I should have been more forceful in putting yesterday down as a no bet day . I suspect we'll have other days like this this winter where sitting out is more favourable to betting for the sake of it
Soft ground at Fairyhouse pretty much makes my mind up for me there. HExham is heavy ground with the first race a novices maiden hurdle! - I'm not a celebrity but get me out of here!
140 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tot O´Whiskey, 7/2 Safari Run, 9/1 Art Bank, 11/1 Andytown, 14/1 Kings Maiden, 16/1 Chernik, 20/1 Merigo, To Make Tracks, 25/1 Tinto Verano, 33/1 Exit Forty Four, 66/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, 100/1 Billsgrey .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOT O'WHISKEY is likely to prove better than the bare form of his hurdles debut success and is preferred to Safari Run

When we face heavy ground it's always wise to look at the horses form ( yes I know this system isn't based on form) quickly just to ascertain whether the horse has run in conditions. Totowhiskey hasn't , but Safari Run has placed in heavy ground before.

750 KEMPTON
No problem with ground here
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Tralanza, 11/4 Summerofsixtynine, 11/2 Imminent Victory, 33/1 Franky´N´Jonny, 40/1 Zameliana .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRALANZA shaped like she should stay this trip when fourth over 10.5f on AW at Dundalk in September, sets a clear standard on form and should be very hard to beat.

Included simply because of the " should be very hard to beat" Spotlight comment - warning - 2 year old maiden and some would shirk taking 1/2 about a horse in such a race
920 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Altos Reales, 7/1 Formidable Guest, 8/1 Magic Amigo, 10/1 Henry Holmes, Karmest, Rollin ´n Tumblin, 11/1 Summer Bounty, 12/1 Larad, Lordswood, 16/1 Mariaverdi, 20/1 Piquet, 25/1 Kilmeena Magic, 40/1 Ocean Valentine, 50/1 The Stafford .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALTOS REALES, weighted to confirm last week's C&D superiority over Formidable Guest and from an in-form stable, looks the one to be on, though a market move for Rollin 'N Tumblin could be worth heeding

PRice gap in a big field handicap doesn't scream confidence to me. More confidence for me in the place only market, or to engineer an 80/20 bet if place odds allow - 80% of usual stake to place only, and 20% to win, in the hope if the horse places we break evenPlace only odds of 1.5 currently make this easily achieveable and we a get a profit to boot if the horse places.
Must mention there's no real " should be very hard to beat"'s here though!
1250 WARWICK

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Ouzbeck, 5/1 Peau Aime, 6/1 Prince Taime, 9/1 Our Choice, Pen Gwen, 10/1 Prime Number, 12/1 Luxurix, Pop, Ticket To Freedom, 16/1 Pagan Sword, 33/1 Doubly Sharp, Max Bygraves, 40/1 Rawaabet, Startengo, 50/1 Music Celebre, 100/1 Back To Normal, Bandits Pistol, Mon Chevalier .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OUZBECK had to work hard at odds on last month but his earlier Wincanton effort sets the standard. Several of these have shown up in bumpers or demonstrated well above-average ability on the Flat and Peau Aime and Prince Taime are among those that could emerge as serious dangers.[RA]

9/10 ,yes a big price gap, 18 runners, 9 of which are debuting in the field and "had to work hard at odds on last month" hadrdly screams out get the mortgage on this fella!
An each way play could pay dividends but where to start - 9 debutants! BUT 9 horses priced at 33/1 or over - 7 of them 100/1 or bigger hints at quality instead of quantity. I'm going to try something different with this race - level stakes on Peau Aime, Prince Taime and Our choice the idea is to exploit any underperformance by the jolly.

A day with soft ground at Warwick and HEavy ground at HExham. Again those of you who don't want to risk "in the hope that" the horses perform on the going should sit this one out and wait for a better day with 8 runner fields and proper circumastances for an each way bet. The price gapper is hardly rock solid either.
FOOTBALL
Crunch time this evening, and in all games where England have needed the right results, they have obliged by the skin of their teeth. This may be the case tonight. Croatia have nothing to play for having already qualifies but the same could have been said about Israel and the boys got the result England fans hoped for. I expect the usual uninspired performance from England as well as the old nail biting as we wait for a goal. I can't see an early goal in this game at all and would trade the under 2.5 goals market with a view to getting out after 20 minutes . Alternatively a lay of England at current odds ,BUT not as a 90 minute bet, rather as a trade. The odds should increase as the stale mate 0-0 remains as is.
If a goal was to be scored, then I would expect it to come from Peter Crouch, Frank LAmpard or BEckham free kick (if he plays) and I may consider backing these 3 to level stakes
Spain face Northern Ireland tonight and are very short odds on to win the game , but Denmark were also short odds. Living in Ireland I've been receiving more coverage of the Northern Ireland boys who were stout against Sweden and managed a win ( pitch conditions suited) against Denmark. Spain are short enough at 1/6 and are worth laying FROM A TRADING PERSPECTIVE ONLY. I would envisage a very defensive set up from Northern Ireland who may be able to hold out long enough for the market on betfair to react by pushing the Spanish price higher than when we backed it This may be a bridge too fire for the Irish, but in David HEaly they have a superb striker in the international stage - a snaky small stakes bet on him to score any time will be at decent odds.