24/11

No blog yesterday thanks to broadband problems
150 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Afsoun, 11/4 Hardy Eustace, 4/1 Detroit City, 9/2 Wichita Lineman, 16/1 Kings Quay, 25/1 Overstrand, 33/1 Lough Derg, 50/1 Cloone River .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HARDY EUSTACE (nap) was as good as ever last season save for rather a flat effort on his last start and, with his trainer having been positive in recent quotes, it is worth taking the chance that his 10yo retains all of his ability. If he does, a repeat of last year's win is likely. Afsoun and Wichita Lineman command respect but most resistance may come from Detroit City, conqueror of Hardy Eustace in a muddling Bula Hurdle last December and a big threat if over whatever what was ailing him on last season's final two starts.

Hardy Eustace each way at around 3/1 looks to have a great chance of placing and being competitive at the business end. The betting forecast puts up 4 horses with the best chance
Detroit City was ailing last 2 runs . Wichita Lineman is another with each way prospects, but Hardy's the one for me.
105 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Gwanako, 7/2 Pouvoir, 9/2 Grand Bleu, 5/1 Degas Art, 8/1 Boulavogue, 9/1 Pigeon Island, 11/1 En La Cruz, 12/1 Mister Benedictine .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Highly competitive despite the modest field size. GWANAKO was quite impressive in beating Pouvoir at Chepstow considering he was expected to need the run and, although that rival has run well again since, the selection is taken to confirm the placings and defy his hefty rise in the handicap. Grand Bleu, so impressive here last term, also has to be considered, particularly if the ground were to soften

An onteresting race but 12/1 the perceived outsider shows it's a tight affair. This is not reflected, though, in the early market with the outside 2 horses quoted 20/1 or bigger. I think Pouvoir is positioned to be competitive for a palce and perhaps the win, and he looks a good each way prospect under Choc Thornton
135 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Taranis, 8/1 Halcon Genelardais, Sonnyanjoe, Ungaro, 10/1 Old Benny, 12/1 Burntoakboy, 16/1 De Soto, Fair Question, Special Envoy, 25/1 Millenium Royal, Mister McGoldrick, Monolith, Redemption, 33/1 Coat Of Honour, Desert Tommy, Eric´s Charm, Rambling Minster, 50/1 Si Grand .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Classy chaser TARANIS (nap), who successfully switched between hurdles and fences last term, could have been delivered an early Christmas present here in the form of one of the season's valuable handicaps over fixed-brush hurdles as he can race off a mark the best part of two stone lower than his chase rating. Ungaro looks an interesting each-way alternative despite his trainer's nagging concern he may be better going right-handed

An interesting price gap here for Taranis who is priced to exploit his low mark. IT's a big field and the safer bet is the place only bet on Taranis but if you fancied backing the horse to mop this race up with his great rating then you'll get a very decent win only price relative to usual price gappers. No real positives from Sptlight save the information about the low rating.
205 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Kauto Star, 11/4 My Way De Solzen, 13/2 Exotic Dancer, 10/1 Turpin Green, 20/1 Beef Or Salmon, Ollie Magern, 40/1 Offshore Account .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although it was undeniably disappointing to see KAUTO STAR in such trouble so early on his reappearance, he hasn't been given the credit he deserves for clawing his way back into the race and it seems churlish not to give him a chance back over 3m at level weights when there can be no excuses about ground, trip or fitness. My Way de Solzen has the chasing world at his feet and is feared most, though Exotic Dancer is bound to leave his reappearance form well behind and Turpin Green goes really well fresh

A magnificent horse who lost last race . In this 7 runner affair we can write off 3 horses at 20/1 or bigger although Beef or Salmon is tempting at the odds. Kauto has obvious place only options and with 2 the place we'll get reasonable odds
125 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Rajeh, 11/4 Gauvain, 6/1 Pacha D´Oudairies, 7/1 Swordsman, 20/1 Merchant Red, Poker Queen, 25/1 Silver Mont, 33/1 Grooms Affection, Smart John, 50/1 Twenti Twenti, 66/1 Winds Of Change, 100/1 Classic Hall, 500/1 Littleton Aldor, Stunning Magic .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are races to be won with Gauvain, but he will need to be spot-on for this return to cope with RAJEH who only just lost out to the very progressive Platin Grounds at Cheltenham last time and will be well suited by today's sharper track

RAjeh and GAuvain are both over evens at present and can be backed to level stakes - it looks a straight match up despite the field size
335 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Racing Demon, 5/4 Aces Four, 14/1 Natal,
A 2 horse race with Aces Four out. A chance to back a 1/3 shot who, as long as he stands up, should have this race. Of course Natal, at 11/4 is the value in a 2 horse race, but his original quote of 14/1 shows that he has his work cut out. I'll back Racing Demon pre race and trade out in running
1205 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ever Cheerful, 3/1 Rhapsilian, 9/2 Stormburst, 5/1 Zazous, 10/1 Mulberry Lad, 14/1 Christian Bendix, 20/1 Mind Alert, Thoughtsofstardom, 25/1 Lost All Alone, 33/1 Regal Royale, 100/1 Parkside Pursuit.
With the 3 main protagonists at 3/1 or greater, we can back them to level stakes and still profit if Ever cheerful, Rhapsilian or Storm buster win. THis will only work if the shortest price of this triumphirate is 3/1
315 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gentleman´s Deal, 3/1 Banknote, Grand Passion, 7/1 Millville, 10/1 Kinsya, 16/1 Kahlua Kiss, Vainglory, 33/1 World Spirit, 50/1 Voliere .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Back on an artificial surface, Winter Derby winner GENTLEMAN'S DEAL can stretch his unbeaten AW record to eight at the expense of Grand Passion and Banknote.[AC]

4 perceived outsiders - perhaps we can look each way here - BAnknote for me each way
FOOTBALL
Some interesting footy today, and ,yes, I might put my mug punters' head on and back MAn Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal along with BArcelona and Raith Rovers - it pays out 3.08 . No doubt someone will draw but this represents reasonable odds. Raith Rovers are playing away from home and are quoted at 2/9. Barcelona are at home, and provided they have the usual suspects playing they should win.
Over 2.5 goals trades look good in the Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea games, although I would expect, with Derby and Wigan, that their opponents may find it difficult to break the teams down. If the games remain 0-0 at half time, I would back over 2.5 goals at half time at enhanced odds with an eye to trading. We've seen it time and time again with top versus bottom. Derby, Wigan, Brum all make things extremely difficult but class eventually tells.
Liverpool look great odds away to Newcastle although a lay of Newcastle would cover the draw. Michale "sicknote" Owen is out, and although Obafemi Martins is a superb replacement I see Liverpool NOT losing this game.
I am considering laying BAyern Munich at 2/9 if the game is in running . They have faultered recently but I suspect they will secure the 3 points. They beat Wolfsburg 2-1 last time but previous head to heads have been inconclusive. BAyern must win to consolidate themselves at the head of the Bundesliga, but it may take them a while to get the breakthrough.
Birmingham at home face a red hot Pompey, and again Brum may be worth laying so we cover the draw. Portsmouth should score some time and if they score first, this will be ideal for a trade.