Absolute Image managed to win which was welcome. As far as Sher BEau was concerned, it would have been quite obvious to those who followed he live market that the eventual head 2nd Letterman was heavily gambled on from 10\1 down to 3/1. Quite obviously an eroded price gap and a warning sign that Sher Beau ,favourite at 5\2, had a serious rival to contend with 5\2 - - - 3\1 is quite obviously not a price gap like 7\4 - - - 9\2. This is supposed to be a system where selections are made without real referral to the live betting market, but for those with the ability to follow the live market, common sense should tell you the price gapper's chances are lessened by any rise in its price and any fall, significant fall, in the price for any opposing horse. Yet again the spectre of jumps racing showed itself with Willie the Fish pulling up at 11\10 - of course we're not to know prior to the race, and I did mention 3 miles was a long way for a horse to be carrying my moolah! Blaeberry won for a non price gapper but a "hard to beat" bet - if you backed the horse you were backing its ability to reproduce previous form which Spotlight considered would make the horse "very hard to beat" - he was spot on on this occasion at a reasonable 4/6.
THe clues were there not to chose Sarahs First as an each way bet " while BAdoura and Sarah's First have been done no favours by the draw" - DOH! Sloppy selection there - GReat run by Fidelia going down by a head at 4\1 - so close !Musoori unplaced at 8/1
PRICE GAPPERS
115 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Smarty Socks, 6/1 Daytime Dreamer, 8/1 Beau Michael, Enter The Indian, Inis Ceithleann, 12/1 Tyreless Endeavour, 14/1 Flamenco Prince, Ice Skate, 16/1 Feisty, 20/1 Carragher, Subbie Royal, 25/1 Banal Song, Brook Lass, Camassie, Dromana Gate, Something Grand, Zenco, 33/1 Molly Wee, Oldtown Green.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SMARTY SOCKS looks best of this bunch. Winner of an auction maiden at Thurles late last season, he was consequently a bit high in the weights this year, even if he managed to go close off a mark of 90 in a 1m1f handicap at Ballinrobe in May. He ran better than is implied by his finishing-position on his hurdling debut at Punchestown, and though he did not make quite the impression that might have been anticipated when fifth to Pied Piper Man at Thurles last week he probably does not need to improve much in order to win here
"looks the best of this bunch..........probably" - and a maiden hurdle - not for me even though RUBY RUBY RUBY RUBY is on board
315 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Badgerlaw, 7/2 Naples, 5/1 The Royal Dub, 8/1 Spring Charm, 14/1 Mattazari, 16/1 Chill Out, 20/1 Glenturn, Rugged Man, Scott Dove, 25/1 Hundred Percent, Zibeline, 33/1 Babooshka, 66/1 Katie Baby.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BADGERLAW looks a stand-out in this company following his chasing debut at Punchestown. An awkward jump at the fifth fence caused him to lose a position in touch with the leaders, but he got back into the race sufficiently well to finish second to Santa's Son whose bolder jumping was the decisive factor. It took the Accordion gelding quite a while to win a maiden hurdle, but he made the breakthrough at odds-on at Ballinrobe on his first run after a break and went on to beat useful yardstick Mustangsallyrally in a handicap hurdle at Listowel. "looks stand out in this company" - that's more like it - not a significant price gap - to be honest NAples is too close price wise for my liking. If remaining over evens he may be worth a punt, ideally place only. Another negative - beginners chase
230 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Watchful, 6/1 Apply Dapply, Postage Stampe, 13/2 Shimoni, Sister Maria, 7/1 Oh Glory Be, 10/1 Vale De Lobo, 12/1 Tcherina.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is something positive to be said for all eight but the most likely scenario is that twice-raced WATCHFUL (nap) takes another healthy step forward and goes one better than at Windsor.[RA]
GReat price gap - NAPPED as well. I like the Spotlight comment bar the " something positive to be said for all eight" bit. That can be seen as a negative as can the fact this is fillies and they've got their minds on shopping and handbags and can be inconsistent.
I will,though, take a chance with this lady - looks nailed on for a place but I guess the place only price on Betfair is likely to tell us that!
130 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Super Nick, 5/1 Carys´s Lad, 6/1 Coe, 8/1 Great Grimsby, 10/1 Red Rattle, 14/1 Boomerang, Finbar´s Pi, 20/1 Chapel Flowers, Threeoseven, 33/1 English Bay, Tetbury, Timetwogo, 100/1 Uncle Lionel.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUPER NICK would appreciate the ground a good bit softer but he should get away with it in this company and is taken to make a winning start for Venetia Williams. Coe is one of a few potential improvers in the field
Good price gap - VEnetia Williams knws the time of day - concern regarding the ground puts me off as does the fact that, to these eyes, this race looks a great each way betting medium
315 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Nevada Royale, 5/1 Nikola, 6/1 Here´s Johnny, 12/1 Allistathebarrista, Gidam Gidam, Mr President, Ordre De Bataille, Teamgeist, 16/1 The Real Deal, 25/1 Acairde, 33/1 Furze Hill, 50/1 Northern Vic, 100/1 Panthers Run.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fascinating stuff and while unbeaten pointer NEVADA ROYALE could have been found an easier opportunity on his debut for the champion trainer, his position near the head of the Cheltenham ante-post lists suggests he'll be hard to beat.[
An obviously well thought of horse "head of the Cheltenham anti-post list" -now not every horse will be at the head in November ! One for me to chance I think based solely on this piece of information and the hope that the horse has the potential
110 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Green Day Packer, 6/1 Alfadora, Thenford Lord, 8/1 James Bay, Moon Melody, Willywont He, 20/1 Golden Snoopy, Persian Prince.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Green Day Packer's stamina unproven, a chance is taken on course winner JAMES BAY who shaped as though this sort of trip would suit when sixth at Sedgefield last time.[AM]
Unproven stamina - come on I want more positivity than that!
EACH WAY
A bit sloppy yesterday with one selecsion, and a close chave with another could have resulted in a better day
145 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sigma Digital, 3/1 Uncle Junior, 4/1 Recovery Man, 10/1 Chief Oscar, Full Of Trix, 12/1 Fall O´ The Hammer, Shiloh, 14/1 Drumboy, Glass Curtain, Mr Multifix, Portrait Games, 16/1 Cape Allstar, The Man Himself, 20/1 Drummallor, Hawkwind, Mansefield, 25/1 Druid´s Chair, 33/1 Conor´s Honour, Greyhallion, Niamh´s Way,
Big field maiden hurdle but interesting there's only 3 before 10/1 REcovery MAn looks positioned to be competitive
315 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Badgerlaw, 7/2 Naples, 5/1 The Royal Dub, 8/1 Spring Charm, 14/1 Mattazari, 16/1 Chill Out, 20/1 Glenturn, Rugged Man, Scott Dove, 25/1 Hundred Percent, Zibeline, 33/1 Babooshka, 66/1 Katie Baby.
4 horses before 14/1 -I will chance Spring Charm here - positioned again to be competitive
1245 NEWMARKET
I am having trouble transferring the betting forecast with cut and paste so won't do it from now on otherwise I'd be here all day! If you look at the betting forecast you'll see 4 horses before 14/1 indicating these are, perhaps. the ones to focus on, and of these, Almoutaz at 3/1 is worth supporting incase Frivolous doesn't run as his short price indicates
350 UTTOXETER
The favourite is 10/3 the field - a slight loss if backed each way and he places, but worthy of support - Mighty Mosse
140 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lease Lend, 5/2 Panthera Leo, 5/1 Breaking Storm, 16/1 Oxford De Lagarde, Ragador, 20/1 Eliza Doalott, Rosa Fina, Star Beat, 28/1 Lucius Rufo, 33/1 Insatiable Lady, Salveo .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LEASE LEND and Panthera Leo look the two to concentrate on. Lease Lend was useful in bumpers last season and, provided he is able to transfer most of that ability to hurdles at the first time of asking, may be too strong for Panthera Leo, despite the latter having run quite a promising first race over hurdles at Kelso recently. [MCu]Right -cut and paste sorted I hope! As you can see from the betting forecast this is a potential 2 horse race, with BReaking Storm the obvious each way candidate to pounce should the market principles run below par
855 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Waterline Twenty, 4/1 Abbondanza, Pab Special, 5/1 Pelham Crescent, 10/1 Magic Warrior, Tom Paris, 14/1 Shifty, 16/1 Follow The Colours, 33/1 Thumpers Dream.
4 horses at 5/1 or thereabouts then a big leap to the 10/1 next priced horse suggest we concentrate on the first 4 for each way purposes. IT's lucky dip time, hope I can select the right one to at least be placed. Pelham Cresecent for me
As you can see, there are more than 3 selections, so time to whittle down. Previous postings have seen me select the first 3 each way bets by meeting (alphabetically) which means I have neglected other meetings where ther might be better candidates, so going through all meeting s will allow me to pick the final 3. The final 3 are highlighted in red above - be interesting to see how those that didn't reach the shortlist get on.
With small fields today, there are twin cycle opportunities250 WETHERBY - FAlcons Fire and Smugglers BAy in a 4 horse race - it's a tight race but we have the 2 market leaders so hopefully one will prevail.
DUTCHING
The dutching is proving troublesome - actually selecting horses early on to dutch doesn't account for possible non runners or market movers near the off, so this may have to be shelved before it's even begun! Dutching should really be a live market pursuit.
THe clues were there not to chose Sarahs First as an each way bet " while BAdoura and Sarah's First have been done no favours by the draw" - DOH! Sloppy selection there - GReat run by Fidelia going down by a head at 4\1 - so close !Musoori unplaced at 8/1
PRICE GAPPERS
115 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Smarty Socks, 6/1 Daytime Dreamer, 8/1 Beau Michael, Enter The Indian, Inis Ceithleann, 12/1 Tyreless Endeavour, 14/1 Flamenco Prince, Ice Skate, 16/1 Feisty, 20/1 Carragher, Subbie Royal, 25/1 Banal Song, Brook Lass, Camassie, Dromana Gate, Something Grand, Zenco, 33/1 Molly Wee, Oldtown Green.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SMARTY SOCKS looks best of this bunch. Winner of an auction maiden at Thurles late last season, he was consequently a bit high in the weights this year, even if he managed to go close off a mark of 90 in a 1m1f handicap at Ballinrobe in May. He ran better than is implied by his finishing-position on his hurdling debut at Punchestown, and though he did not make quite the impression that might have been anticipated when fifth to Pied Piper Man at Thurles last week he probably does not need to improve much in order to win here
"looks the best of this bunch..........probably" - and a maiden hurdle - not for me even though RUBY RUBY RUBY RUBY is on board
315 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Badgerlaw, 7/2 Naples, 5/1 The Royal Dub, 8/1 Spring Charm, 14/1 Mattazari, 16/1 Chill Out, 20/1 Glenturn, Rugged Man, Scott Dove, 25/1 Hundred Percent, Zibeline, 33/1 Babooshka, 66/1 Katie Baby.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BADGERLAW looks a stand-out in this company following his chasing debut at Punchestown. An awkward jump at the fifth fence caused him to lose a position in touch with the leaders, but he got back into the race sufficiently well to finish second to Santa's Son whose bolder jumping was the decisive factor. It took the Accordion gelding quite a while to win a maiden hurdle, but he made the breakthrough at odds-on at Ballinrobe on his first run after a break and went on to beat useful yardstick Mustangsallyrally in a handicap hurdle at Listowel. "looks stand out in this company" - that's more like it - not a significant price gap - to be honest NAples is too close price wise for my liking. If remaining over evens he may be worth a punt, ideally place only. Another negative - beginners chase
230 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Watchful, 6/1 Apply Dapply, Postage Stampe, 13/2 Shimoni, Sister Maria, 7/1 Oh Glory Be, 10/1 Vale De Lobo, 12/1 Tcherina.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is something positive to be said for all eight but the most likely scenario is that twice-raced WATCHFUL (nap) takes another healthy step forward and goes one better than at Windsor.[RA]
GReat price gap - NAPPED as well. I like the Spotlight comment bar the " something positive to be said for all eight" bit. That can be seen as a negative as can the fact this is fillies and they've got their minds on shopping and handbags and can be inconsistent.
I will,though, take a chance with this lady - looks nailed on for a place but I guess the place only price on Betfair is likely to tell us that!
130 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Super Nick, 5/1 Carys´s Lad, 6/1 Coe, 8/1 Great Grimsby, 10/1 Red Rattle, 14/1 Boomerang, Finbar´s Pi, 20/1 Chapel Flowers, Threeoseven, 33/1 English Bay, Tetbury, Timetwogo, 100/1 Uncle Lionel.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUPER NICK would appreciate the ground a good bit softer but he should get away with it in this company and is taken to make a winning start for Venetia Williams. Coe is one of a few potential improvers in the field
Good price gap - VEnetia Williams knws the time of day - concern regarding the ground puts me off as does the fact that, to these eyes, this race looks a great each way betting medium
315 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Nevada Royale, 5/1 Nikola, 6/1 Here´s Johnny, 12/1 Allistathebarrista, Gidam Gidam, Mr President, Ordre De Bataille, Teamgeist, 16/1 The Real Deal, 25/1 Acairde, 33/1 Furze Hill, 50/1 Northern Vic, 100/1 Panthers Run.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fascinating stuff and while unbeaten pointer NEVADA ROYALE could have been found an easier opportunity on his debut for the champion trainer, his position near the head of the Cheltenham ante-post lists suggests he'll be hard to beat.[
An obviously well thought of horse "head of the Cheltenham anti-post list" -now not every horse will be at the head in November ! One for me to chance I think based solely on this piece of information and the hope that the horse has the potential
110 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Green Day Packer, 6/1 Alfadora, Thenford Lord, 8/1 James Bay, Moon Melody, Willywont He, 20/1 Golden Snoopy, Persian Prince.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Green Day Packer's stamina unproven, a chance is taken on course winner JAMES BAY who shaped as though this sort of trip would suit when sixth at Sedgefield last time.[AM]
Unproven stamina - come on I want more positivity than that!
EACH WAY
A bit sloppy yesterday with one selecsion, and a close chave with another could have resulted in a better day
145 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sigma Digital, 3/1 Uncle Junior, 4/1 Recovery Man, 10/1 Chief Oscar, Full Of Trix, 12/1 Fall O´ The Hammer, Shiloh, 14/1 Drumboy, Glass Curtain, Mr Multifix, Portrait Games, 16/1 Cape Allstar, The Man Himself, 20/1 Drummallor, Hawkwind, Mansefield, 25/1 Druid´s Chair, 33/1 Conor´s Honour, Greyhallion, Niamh´s Way,
Big field maiden hurdle but interesting there's only 3 before 10/1 REcovery MAn looks positioned to be competitive
315 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Badgerlaw, 7/2 Naples, 5/1 The Royal Dub, 8/1 Spring Charm, 14/1 Mattazari, 16/1 Chill Out, 20/1 Glenturn, Rugged Man, Scott Dove, 25/1 Hundred Percent, Zibeline, 33/1 Babooshka, 66/1 Katie Baby.
4 horses before 14/1 -I will chance Spring Charm here - positioned again to be competitive
1245 NEWMARKET
I am having trouble transferring the betting forecast with cut and paste so won't do it from now on otherwise I'd be here all day! If you look at the betting forecast you'll see 4 horses before 14/1 indicating these are, perhaps. the ones to focus on, and of these, Almoutaz at 3/1 is worth supporting incase Frivolous doesn't run as his short price indicates
350 UTTOXETER
The favourite is 10/3 the field - a slight loss if backed each way and he places, but worthy of support - Mighty Mosse
140 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lease Lend, 5/2 Panthera Leo, 5/1 Breaking Storm, 16/1 Oxford De Lagarde, Ragador, 20/1 Eliza Doalott, Rosa Fina, Star Beat, 28/1 Lucius Rufo, 33/1 Insatiable Lady, Salveo .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LEASE LEND and Panthera Leo look the two to concentrate on. Lease Lend was useful in bumpers last season and, provided he is able to transfer most of that ability to hurdles at the first time of asking, may be too strong for Panthera Leo, despite the latter having run quite a promising first race over hurdles at Kelso recently. [MCu]Right -cut and paste sorted I hope! As you can see from the betting forecast this is a potential 2 horse race, with BReaking Storm the obvious each way candidate to pounce should the market principles run below par
855 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Waterline Twenty, 4/1 Abbondanza, Pab Special, 5/1 Pelham Crescent, 10/1 Magic Warrior, Tom Paris, 14/1 Shifty, 16/1 Follow The Colours, 33/1 Thumpers Dream.
4 horses at 5/1 or thereabouts then a big leap to the 10/1 next priced horse suggest we concentrate on the first 4 for each way purposes. IT's lucky dip time, hope I can select the right one to at least be placed. Pelham Cresecent for me
As you can see, there are more than 3 selections, so time to whittle down. Previous postings have seen me select the first 3 each way bets by meeting (alphabetically) which means I have neglected other meetings where ther might be better candidates, so going through all meeting s will allow me to pick the final 3. The final 3 are highlighted in red above - be interesting to see how those that didn't reach the shortlist get on.
With small fields today, there are twin cycle opportunities250 WETHERBY - FAlcons Fire and Smugglers BAy in a 4 horse race - it's a tight race but we have the 2 market leaders so hopefully one will prevail.
DUTCHING
The dutching is proving troublesome - actually selecting horses early on to dutch doesn't account for possible non runners or market movers near the off, so this may have to be shelved before it's even begun! Dutching should really be a live market pursuit.
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