17/11

Well done to Spotthedifference yesterday - another fine victory, and Imperial Commander won too. I hope you were put off Linsalatta as Raja won that race.Whitcombe Minister a non runner
The BArney Curley runner, as I suspected, lost so I hope you left that one alone ( or even laid it!) Mango music unplaced - another claimer with a 33\1 and 16/1 filling 2 of the places -says it all really - a poor race type and one to remember to avoid in future! The each wys were capped by a win for Dens Gift at 7/1 (enahnced odds at BEtfair) adequately compensating for the 2 unplaced runners. Still some concern that 2 were unplaced - again in the 855 I said "perhaps not an ideal race" and I should strictly leave these races out of the equation.
PRICE GAPPERS
A busy Saturday means its time to be a little selective
200 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Franchoek, 7/2 Falcon´s Fire, 6/1 Sainte Kadette, 7/1 Paco Jack, 9/1 Callisto Moon, 14/1 Won In The Dark, 25/1 Lemon Silk, 50/1 Apache Chant, Carson´s Spirit .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRANCHOEK made mincemeat of his Chepstow rivals in the same race won by stablemate Katchit en route to victory here and, although subsequent events suggest he did not achieve much, he could hardly have got the job done better. With plenty of use likely to be made of him again, he is likely to prove difficult to catch. Old rival Falcon's Fire is the obvious danger.[FC]The first "possible" today in Franchoek and we could not have a better jockey on our side than Chocolate thornton -my concern as I write is the close proximity of Saint Kadette in the early market with Falcon's Fire out to 5/1.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRANCHOEK made mincemeat of his Chepstow rivals in the same race won by stablemate Katchit en route to victory here and, although subsequent events suggest he did not achieve much, he could hardly have got the job done better. With plenty of use likely to be made of him again, he is likely to prove difficult to catch.
Improved stayer on the Flat, successful three times in August/September; not slick enough to cope with Falcon´s Fire at Market Rasen first time over hurdles but looked a different proposition on the more galloping track at Chepstow, in total command a long way out; form not really worked out but similar forcing tactics expected to make him hard to beat.
Doing a bit of Miss Marple here, it would seem that Franchoek will be ridden from the front, hence his price in the in running market should fall regularly allowing for some trading. I am apprehensive about baking the horse to win only - just looking at the form of the other horses there's a lot of 1's which make them no mugs. Saint KAdette's early price cut is a threat to Franchoek.
On the poisitives at least 5 horses are priced as perceived outsiders leaving 4 main contenders if the price market is accurate , and in this class 1 race, you can usually rely on the price market. PRice gap currently 5/4 - - - 7/2 which indicates perhaps an each way angle here . Those wanting to back Franchoek will have a class Jockey on board and will get over evens which is a consolation.
245 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Newton Bridge, 6/1 Missgoodytwoshoes, 8/1 Tayman, 12/1 Risk Runner, 14/1 English City, No Greater Love, 16/1 Coltscroft, 20/1 Barren Lands, Pelo Du Bief, Speed Venture, 25/1 Marronnier, Shoudawoudacouda, 33/1 Archimboldo, Pearly Star, Riccardo, Star Of Germany, 50/1 Gaelic Flight, 66/1 Cleopatras Therapy, Port Of Mogan, Water King .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NEWTON BRIDGE looked to have a bit in hand at Cheltenham yesterday and will be hard to beat if turned out again. If connections decide to give this a miss then perhaps fellow Irish raider Missgoodytwoshoes could be the one to take advantagA winner yesterday at Cheltenham over 2 mile 5 and a journey to Uttoxeter and installation as favourite here in this 20 runner event - not for me thanks although it's interesting connections are getting the horse out so quickly - on a winning sequence of 3 which end soon - today? Those who know about my "hard to beat " theory will note the Spotlight comment

As an aside ,there are a number of perceived 2 horse races today ,eg 10/11 one horse and 7/4 the next - it's a 50/50 chance simple as that -so do you feel lucky punk? Don't be swayed into thinking the 10/11 horse is the most favoured. Like a heads and tails game the bookie will always price one at odds on and one at odds against instead of their true odds of evens . Something for you to think about.

EACH WAYS
Disappointing that 2 unplaced yesterday but happy that we got the jolly beaten with a 7/1 ( better on BEtfair) horse which salvaged things. Putting my glass is half emplty head on, WHat if this horse only placed - we'd have been looking at a loss yesterday. I put the 2 failures down to a claimer race and a maiden race in the 855 which I infact mentioned as perhaps not a suitabl race. I should have the discipline to leave these alone.
125 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Willyanwoody, 7/2 Albertas Run, Itsmyboy, 11/2 Oniz Tiptoes, 9/1 Opera De Coeur, 14/1 Sizing Australia, 20/1 The Real Deal, 25/1 Niche Market, 50/1 Mokujin .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Willyanwoody could not have made a much better start at Exeter for the champion trainer and Albertas Run is a major force if his errors at Aintree are forgiven, but ONIZ TIPTOES is the type to expose any flaws in his less-experienced rivals. Itsmyboy may be produced late but get outbattled.[RA]
Right, 4 perceived outsiders in a 9 horse race reduces our choices to 5. For me it;s a choice between 2nd, 3rd and 4th named betting forecast horses. Again it's luck of the draw that I select the right one ( remember we don't want exhaustive form analysis) and its It's my boy for me nestled in the centre ,who should, I hope for a place
200 CHELTENAHM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Franchoek, 7/2 Falcon´s Fire, 6/1 Sainte Kadette, 7/1 Paco Jack, 9/1 Callisto Moon, 14/1 Won In The Dark, 25/1 Lemon Silk, 50/1 Apache Chant, Carson´s Spirit .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRANCHOEK made mincemeat of his Chepstow rivals in the same race won by stablemate Katchit en route to victory here and, although subsequent events suggest he did not achieve much, he could hardly have got the job done better. With plenty of use likely to be made of him again, he is likely to prove difficult to catch. Old rival Falcon's Fire is the obvious dangerFor those unconvinced by the argument regarding Franchoek, this race can be atacked from an each way perpective
Eah way possibilities include Falcons fire, Saint KAdette and Paco JAck. As already mentioned Saint KAdette is now 7/2 and looks priced for an each way run. I hope McCoy can get this horse placed although I note the horse is up in class which is not an ideal
310 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Blazing Bailey, 3/1 Sonnyanjoe, 7/1 Lyes Green, 8/1 Juveigneur, 9/1 Prestbury Knight, Prince De Bersy, Raslan, 10/1 Gold Gun, 20/1 Ashwell .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are positives for even the six horses forced to run from out of the handicap, but SONNYANJOE (nap) is the obvious place to turn, seeing as he can race off his proper mark and is in strikingly good form, whereas class act Blazing Bailey is making his reappearanceBlazing BAiley " class act" and "must have a major chance" - at 11/4 not strictly an each way price but should be competitive. 5 of the 9 are in double figures and I gope run as their p[rices suggest, limiting Blaing's place rivals to just the 1

There are many other meetings and each way prospects today but these are in high quality fields and I hope the betting forecast is more accurate than if these were donke derbies!

FOOTBALL
All eyes on the mighty, erm, Israel today as they take on the Russkies in a must win game for England fans at least. I have no real opinion on this game from a betting perpective, bbut what does interest me is the Scots against Italy. I will be trading the under 2.5 goals market here for the early part of the 1st half. The Scots look to be playing a 4-5-1 which is a traditional defensive set up ( and they're at home!) and the Italians are reknowned for their defense , so I see it taking a while for a goal to arrive, and if one does I cannot see an avalanche. I hope the national side play stifling football early on and then change 2nd half to look for that goal.
THe Northern Ireland v Denmark game looks interesting and is another potential unders game with Northern Ireland looking to hold out again.
Elsewhere short prices abound in the international fixtures