14/11

THe each ways were subject to market movers, drifts and stable gambles yesterday alas. First race only paid 2 the place after all which was not ideal. Refinement traded at 12 pre race and was obviously unfancied, while in the last, Harrival and Desert Quest were market movers - Desert Quest 66/1 in the betting forecast, trades at 16/1 and wins. I cannot legislate for these stable gambles early doors - c'est la vie I suppose. Nagano's price drifted to 12/1 before the off - oh the joys of the jumps season - stable gambles are back!
I will do today's with one eye on the early prices and see if I can avoid drifters and get back on track, and make sure that, unlike the first race yesterday, I make a note of horses marked as "doubtful"
PRICE GAPPERS
320 BANGOR ON DEE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Piamontini, 11/2 Beherayn, 7/1 Abstract Art, 8/1 Rightway Star, 10/1 Greenbridge, Jardin De Vienne, 12/1 Bedizen, 14/1 Chapel Flowers, Terminate, Treefella, 50/1 Hemington, Whatdoidowiththat .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A suitable opportunity for PIAMONTINI, who ran such a big race in what looked a good Cheltenham bumper last month, to make a winning start as a hurdler.[BDO]The price gap has hardened early doors making this interesting. The good to soft ground is offputting though as it can deteriorate during the day .Only race has been in a bumper ( not over obstacles) . I'm going here on the price gap 5/4 - - - 8/1 which must signify something!
620 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Howdigo, 6/1 Neyraan, Smetana, Vigano, 12/1 Two Left Feet, 14/1 Danse The Blues, Jasoora, 20/1 Coole Dodger, 25/1 Kiribati King, Rutba, 33/1 Cozy Tiger, Whitcombe Spirit, 66/1 Astrodome, 100/1 Palmer´s Green .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be better to come from Smetana while market confidence behind Neyraan would be interesting, but HOWDIGO (nap), who failed only narrowly against a useful sort at Lingfield last time with the rest well beaten off, sets a useful standard and is the one to beatRace type not really suitable - another maiden race but again, the price gap is holding up early doors, although bare in mind the race time! The horse has one positive - plenty of runs and is nearing winning a maiden - the price indicates today could be the day
400 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Outlandish, 6/1 Gobejolly, 8/1 Hoof It Harry, 12/1 Master Darcy, 14/1 Nessa, 16/1 Trempari, 25/1 Collateral, 33/1 Me And Pat, Miss Jaffa.
Another unsuitable race type - BUMPER - equivalent of flat maiden for the jumpers - watch out here for Collateral - 25/1 as you can see above, but trading at 16/1, 14/1 in places with some bookmakers. Could be a sneaky one if this 16/1 remains nearer the off. Outlandish another price gapper The fav though is a debutant to the polytrack for this bumper
240 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Speagle, 8/1 Birthday Star, 10/1 The Mighty Ogmore, 12/1 Hook Money, Veloso, 14/1 Davidia, 16/1 Escoffier, 20/1 Slip Silver, 25/1 History Prize, 33/1 Homecroft Boy, Island King, Taran Tregarth .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around SPEAGLE, who has tons in hand on the figures and has done enough this summer to suggest he is still up to winning races. Should he underperform, perhaps Birthday Star will be the one to capitalise.A seller this time - poor race types all round!
Speagle Hit rich vein of form last year and although he hasn´t matched it this time round, there has been the odd effort that suggests the ability is still there; didn´t run too badly at Kempton on Sunday, has upwards of a stone in hand of his rivals on BHA figures and obviously the one to beat.
Is this enough to sway you ? The price gap remains but Birthday star has been clipped in a couple of points. Bearing in mind the race type, would you take such a short price OR are you going to take the chance because of the "stone in hand" which suggests he has an outstading chance
EACH WAYS
Well the problem with doing selections the night before is the inability to cancel some because of price moves or non runners reducing the field to 6 and paying out 2 only the place, or market movers like Desert Quest and consequent drifters like REfinement and NAgano which ,on second glance, make them non bets.
Something has to give if you want a system which doesn't rely on the live betting market alas.
1250 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Evelith Echo, 7/2 April San, 9/2 Well Saved, 14/1 Rinnwood Lass, 16/1 Mr Merlot, 20/1 Emile Zola, 33/1 Penfull, 50/1 Brigadore, Mystik Megan, 66/1 Supreme Gem, 100/1 Bayberry King, Benellino .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those with hurdling form set only a modest standard, though there are reasons to expect a good deal better from the very useful ex-French Flat-racer April San this time around. He could be the danger to EVELITH ECHO, who was an above-average bumper horse and is expected to do well in this sphere.[FC]No, not 8 runners but I'm drawn by the number of big prices which we can hopefully dismiss. Obvious each way selections include April San and Well Saved. Well saved for me each way
120 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Money Order, O´Maley, 9/2 Flying Falcon, 7/1 Royal Kicks, 12/1 Presumptuous, 14/1 Carnival Town, Leading Authority, What A Scientist, 16/1 Glinton, 20/1 Appleaday, 40/1 Deep Reflection, 100/1 Hot Chocolat.
Interesting to note LEading Authority at 9/1 this morning - look at his price in the betting forecast - a signal of something? A beginners chase is open to market moves so he may be one to keep an eye on. O'Maley interests me as an official selecition - currently 11/4, not an ideal each way price - again 4 horses before the 12/1 ( not counting the new information regarding LEading Authority) suggest he looks primed for a place at least
Check out the 620 KEmpton - potential market movers? - just as an excersise
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Howdigo, 6/1 Neyraan, Smetana, Vigano, 12/1 Two Left Feet, 14/1 Danse The Blues, Jasoora, 20/1 Coole Dodger, 25/1 Kiribati King, Rutba, 33/1 Cozy Tiger, Whitcombe Spirit, 66/1 Astrodome, 100/1 Palmer´s Green.
Two left feet - 12/1 in the betting forecast - 13/2 early prices
Whitcombe Spirit - 33/1 betting forecast - 16/1 early prices
Danse the blues - 14/1 betting forecast - 10/1 early prices
Now I am aware that this race doesn't go off til this evening so to have an interest in the above potential gambles ( this is a maiden after all) we would want to see the prices reflected in the live market nearer the off - any drifts mean no bet
I put this here as it might interest you and cannot put these up as bets because the race is some 7 hours away . Whitcombe Spirit of the above is most interesting ,followed by Two LEft Feet
130 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Radbrook Hall, 4/1 Armoury House, 9/2 Sett Aside, 7/1 Charlie´s Double, Ilongue, 8/1 Celtic Society, 10/1 Auburn Grey, 16/1 Sintos, 25/1 Dance Day .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of these are particularly attractive betting propositions but there are reasons to think that CELTIC SOCIETY could be better than he has shown so far and he is the suggestion.Again not a bet just an example. Dance Day is currently 18/1 early doors - a potential gamble? This is what makes doing the each ways in the jumps more difficult!
400 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Outlandish, 6/1 Gobejolly, 8/1 Hoof It Harry, 12/1 Master Darcy, 14/1 Nessa, 16/1 Trempari, 25/1 Collateral, 33/1 Me And Pat, Miss Jaffa.
Again, Collateral shows as 10/1 in the morning prices - look at the price above
Another example as this isn't the usual each way bet - would be good to track the performance of these perceived market movers

So today just Well Saved and O'MAley for me as the official selections but it would be good to see how these market movers progress in light of Desert Quest's victory yesterday.
It would seem that the jumps season is ideal hunting ground for market move systems and potential stable gambles because of the race types really - beginner's this and maiden that and novices the other - the stable will know how well schooled ( or otherwise ) the horses are and may show this by having a couple of shillings on.