26/11

Well ,who did you pick, Cedrus Libani or Tramantino in this toss of a coin race ?- Cedrus won. Butler Cabin - non runner. GEm Daly came 2nd for each way backers and TEam geist came 3rd -I mentioned loading the place only part of this bet and that would have paid off. Jermaine Defoe - what a plonker ! Missed a penalty and scuppered the over 2.5 goals in the London Derby. As a trade ,though, the over 2.5 goals price reduced sufficiently for a marginal profit. Getafe scored first which was great for those wise enough to back on betfair and utilise trading. Zaragoza equalised in the 81st minute alas but the odds would have shortened sufficiently for another successful trade.
A pleasing day with each way bets placing as we await the winner to come.
One horse to take out of yesterday was Souffleur. He did have a marginal price gap and the words " hard to get away from" but I missed putting him up. THe jockey describes the horse as a "f****ing machine" - keep him in your note book. HE traded at 60 in running yet won with the jockey sipping cognac and reading the Sunday supplements in his slippers. Could be the next big thing - you read it here first!
Soft ground at Ayr today is not ideal at all. I did look at Fair Hills BAba for a possible each way bet in in the 110.
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Panthera Leo, 11/4 Viking Rebel, 7/2 Fair Hills Baba, 10/1 Heez A Steel, 14/1 Bewery Man, 20/1 Inverlochy Lad, 25/1 Box Wallah, Etxalar, Tycheros, 100/1 High Delight.
Plenty of outsiders and 2 market leaders - Viking Rebel is joint fav at 7/4 early morning prices, but I am wary that the soft ground may mean the first 3 won't occupy the 1-2-3 placings
140 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wee Forbees, 15/8 Ballyvoge, 5/1 Witch Wind, 11/2 Sonny Liston, 20/1 Royal Mackintosh, 25/1 Dalawan, Maura´s Legacy, Rathowen, 33/1 Nasrha, 50/1 President Hill, 100/1 Scarecrow, Stormont Dawn, 150/1 Happy Boy.
Again soft ground and the look of a 2 horse race in this beginners chase. Witch wind now trades at 10/1 and Sonny Liston at 25/1. Obviously there is a huge difference of opinion between the betting forecaster and the live market. I am going to chance Sonny Liston and Witch Win each way incase the betting forecaster has correctly identified the 4 horses he has priced up before 20/1 as the main protagonists. Not a confident bet at all given the soft ground and the big field. I see a potential big priced horse entering the frame but there are too many candidates -after all with beginners chases we have no real reliable form in the chasing sphere to look at
130 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 One More Round, 11/4 China Cherub, 11/2 Onenightinlisbon, 7/1 Chief Exec, 8/1 Bustan, 14/1 Mozakhraf, Pivotal Era, 16/1 White Bear, 66/1 Ceredig, 100/1 Only If I Laugh .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The trip will inconvenience ONE MORE ROUND less than the dropped-in-grade China Cherub and he can follow up his victory here the other day.[GN]Bustan is out, and there are 4 runners priced as outsiders leaving 5 with place chances. One night in Lisbon is the obvious one but why is Chief Exec showing at 33/1 in the morning prices and 7/1 with the betting forecaster - very odd
220 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Gan Eagla, Herecomestanley, 4/1 Marked Man, 7/1 Rajam, 8/1 Spring Lover, 10/1 Fu Manchu, 12/1 Rooster´s Reunion, 16/1 Glimmer Of Light.
10/3 the field - 8 runner race - 3 priced 16/1 or greater. LEaves us with Herecomesstanley, Gan Eagla, marked man Rajam and Spring Lover. I will chance Herecomesstanley each way here

A lack of choice today with generally big fields and soft ground making me reluctant to get involved at Ayr. I hope the chosen selections can be competitive for a place at least