What the system has bought up in the last few days is very disappointing and in no way reflects its true worth - it's sod law that when I start sharing it, race types , fallers, broken blood vessels all conspire against me. But I'll perservere. I was feeling the same way on 15th January when the same thing happened then we went a month with longest losing run of , I think, 3 .
Good to get Sherrif Roscoe beaten.
Martha was unplaced, but interestingly, I placed my bet at 7am and by kick off the price had gone down in both the place and win markets soo it was a green screen in this maiden.
Stuttgart - no show really - I think it was a cup game and should have done proper research - not really the first team playing I would assume
Juve draw/draw compensated a little
All in all a loss on the day for me as I do back these 3 into 1's against my better judgement in some races as I have personally profitted from the system through Jan and Feb.
245 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 My Valley, 5/1 Melana Star, 8/1 Lady Wright, Saddle Up, 20/1 Naujella Girl, 25/1 Madame Les Jambes, Ring Street Roller, 33/1 Dippy Duck, Lady´s Gesture, Miss Beijing, 50/1 Golden Blossom.
7 over 20/1 -can we dismiss these perceived outsiders? If so ,the race leaves 3 each way candidates and a short price hot pot. The commentary notes that My Valley and Saddle up are from the same stables yet Saddle Up has Ruby Walsh on board. This is too obvious an each way candidate for me and I'll plump with Lady Wright each way - 3rd in betting forecast. Let's hope the outsiders run as their prices indicate.
FOLKSTONE
210
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Lupanar, 11/2 Olympian, 6/1 Award Winner, 12/1 Elliott, 14/1 Anchor Bridge, 20/1 Oponce, Treat Em Mean, 25/1 Cornelia, Noble Minstrel, Postmaster, 33/1 Big Paddy, 50/1 Glandore Moon, 66/1 Top Gear, Zaffarans Scene, 100/1 Quaystone Lady, 150/1 Major Upset .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LUPANAR (nap) did really well on his hurdle debut for this yard recently and is preferred to Olympian, who ran so well on his handicap hurdle debut at Huntingdon last time.[EMW] |
A maiden hurdle so immediately I'd be looking at an each way play against the favourite. Only 2 horses below double figure odds and Olympian each way looks ideally placed to compensate should Lupinar not give his running - Spotlight's mention also backs this up
310
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Littleton Aldor, 4/1 Forfeiter, 6/1 Green Gamble, 7/1 Jupon Vert, 8/1 Moonlight Music, Olival, 20/1 A Sea Commander, Signature Tune, 25/1 Batchworth Beau, Orsus, 33/1 Sett Aside .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these find it hard to win and LITTLETON ALDOR, the only one with a win to his name over fences this season, will be hard to beat if he reproduces the form he has been showing at Chepstow this month. Olival could prove most troublesome |
Now 11/4 early prices, Littleton Aldor takes my eye because of the "hard to beat ...if" in Spotlight's commentary.
1.79 for the place indicates this is no gimme by any stretch in a typically tricky handicap but is worthy of support
KEMPTON
Nothing appeals
SOUTHWELL
320
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Otarie, 11/4 Tarabaloo, 7/1 Will Exell, 25/1 Homespun Magic, 33/1 Double Money, 40/1 Henbeck Lady, Lucky Find, Redd Ragusa, 50/1 Jollie Abilola .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OTARIE (nap) ran well enough in a better race last time and this looks an ideal opportunity for her to get off the mark. Tarabaloo is the obvious danger.[SR] |
WOLVERHAMPTON
230
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Wiltshire, 4/1 Decider, Moverra, 6/1 Cape Of Storms, 8/1 Desert Light, Smirfys Systems, 12/1 Rosie Cross, 14/1 Just Spike, 20/1 Bahamian Bay .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wiltshire and DECIDER fought out the finish of a similar event at Kempton last week and with the benefit of that run behind him, and a 6lb pull in the weights, Ron Harris's new inmate is taken to reverse the placings this time. A market move for the ex-Irish Moverra would look significant.[PSm] |
3 at 16/1 and over brings the field down to 6 , so,again, each way looks the angle to get in. Cape of storms won last time out, and the price he is quoted at indicates a double is unlikely ( but possible given the favs are 7/2)
I will swerve the obvious each way and will level stakes dutch Wiltshire, Decider and Moverra, the latter mentioned in Spotlight and who has been backed slightly early doors.
500
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Little Wing, 5/1 Bussell Up, 6/1 Upper Class, 9/1 Fathsta, 12/1 Naughty Frida, 16/1 Ten Pole Tudor, 20/1 Ocean Transit, 25/1 Hit The Roof .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little Wing will be popular in his hat-trick bid but this looks a much stiffer assignment than last time and there could be some mileage in taking him on with BUSSELL UP. Stuart Williams' filly has improved with each start to date and a mark of 79 is unlikely to be beyond her in time |
Potential price gapper here in Little Wing - BUT he's a horse who has won 2 on the bounce in handicap company. Money has come for Bussel Up early doors and, although 10/3 is not an each way price.
Place only is 1.48 and win is 4.6 so if the horse places you will lose half your win stake.]
In a race where there are 8 runners, 4 of which are 20/1 or bigger, and a favourite who falls into the multiple handicap winner category, Bussell Up looks ideally placed to, well, place at the very least.
I have backed the place and win to the same stake, although if you want to create a break even position, back the win with the potential winnings from the place only bet.
A speculative each way theme today with one dutch. I'm hoping for a slight profit on the day with the potential of really nabbing a big price if horses prove as unpredictable as they have with the 3 into 1 system
3 INTO 1 SYSTEM
2 selections yesterday we could pick holes in - one in a 2 horse race, the other in an apprentice handicap where the jockey was unknown to me, against an experienced race rider in Kirsy Milzarek. I wish I pointed this out yesterday but when I saw the words apprentice handicap, I immediately dismissed the race!
250 Southwell - Beggars Cap - a very short price indeed over the sticks
500 Wolves - Little Wing - has already won twice in handicap company - price suggests he could win again ( like Rapidity and Confidentiality before him) - being a mechanical system, the 3 into 1 does not account for circumstances re race type and potential market rivals like Bussell Up
620 Kempton - Sion Hill - a very competitive handicap - most of the successful 3 into 1 selections previously have been noted by their clear favouritism and prices around evens to 13/8. Currently 7/2 (there's a long time to wait for this race) this is a big p[rice in relative terms for the system -4 horses are in close proximity price wise at 3/1, 9/2, 5/1. Guess what - another apprentice handicap race which I would immediately scratch from a personal perspective but will be rueing if Sion Hill obliges
CONCLUSION
Again not ideal candidates and I certainly wouldn't have selected them, as you can read in the blog, as personal choices. BEggars Cap is too short, Little Wing has already won and faces a challenge from Bussel Up, and Sion Hill appears in a dreaded apprentice handicap - arrrgghh!
But I hope for surprises! (Prayer mat is out as I write)
FOOTY
Yesterday's Stuttgart debacle was in the German D F B pokal - I should have noticed that and swerved the game - I mistakenly thought it was a Bundesliga match - ie something to PLAY FOR!
The value of the questions in Jan's issue!
FA Cup tonight sees Boro at home to Sheffield United. Boro have been impressing of late and their loss at Anfield recently can be put down to stupid errors which simply they paid for! With the Ladbrokes site down, I can't check instantly recent form for both sides so use www.soccerstats.com
The 8/13 tonight does look tempting I must say and I would like to see a strong Boro side on the pitch similar to the side that scored 2 away at Anfield.
Again, as with Juve last night where I profitted well from the draw/draw, I will use the half time/full time market and Boro/Boro ; Draw/boro ; Draw/Draw (as it is the FA Cup)
What'll it be tonight for Celtic - the 5-0 drubbing of September or the 3-2 humbling of December ? Will we see those famous headlines - SuperCaligoballisticCelticareattrocious!
Celtic were very poor indeed against St Mirren away and it took a Nakamura cheat to earn the free kick which he dispatched superbly to gain an 85th minute 1-0.
This win came after a European night where Celtic do suffer hangovers. Tonight they're at home and if McGEady's in the side, they will score.
I will not bet if Samararse is playing as he should be playing Sunday league - he is crap - full stop.
If Samararse is absent then 1.58 for over 2.5 goals looks worthy of investment. As with the weekend game, if Celtic are 0-0 after 70 minutes , they are backable at hugely inflated odds in the match odds market.
So, if Samararse plays, NO BET - he couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo!
With RAngers, we face a team who are away, and know their nearest rivals should beat their opposition at home. Why kind of incentive will this put on Rangers away to Hearts. It is a must win game, but the 8/13 quote shows that this is going to be difficult.
Away at Hearts they lost 4-2 last time, but beat them 2-1 at home.
The last time these 2 met at Hearts there were 8 yellows, so perhaps 9 points or above on the bookings index at 1.72 currently will give us a run for our money? We need 5 yellow cards to profit (2 points per yellow). As a neutral bet, this ensures we have both teams on our side and hopefully a card happy referee!
First goal odds can be backed to level stakes for 1st-10mins, 11-20mins, 21-30 mins, 31-40 mins as the lowest odds are 4.9 - returns increase with time - cue a 1-0 41st minute then!
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