Tuesday 19 February 2008

19/2

Two 90th minute goals secured the win yesterday for Nantes and a nice payout on draw/Nantes equivalent to nearly 3/1

Nothing really at Punchestown, bar 3 maiden hurdles!. Sizing Africa may be worth an interest if the market vibes are strong. The "Sizing" named horses seem to run well.

SEDGEFIELD

300
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kalahari King, 6/4 Mr Crystal, 7/1 King In Waiting, 14/1 Woodcraft, Yeoman Spirit, 25/1 Calow Green, 50/1 Rowan Lodge, 100/1 Moving Story, 200/1 Loch Awe, Naval Attache, One Accord, Silver Alidante, Yorkshire Owl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kalahari King disappointed when a hot favourite at Doncaster recently and is opposed with MR CRYSTAL, who is much better over hurdles than he was on the Flat and put a heavy fall behind him with a bold show under a double penalty at Catterick. It would be no surprise if the pair have the race between them.[FC]

Another choice - the front 2 are backable with level stakes and there is an obvious each way horse in King in Waiting. Probably a better return on King in Waiting to place with a little on the win although this would seem to be the more speculative of the 2 options

TAUNTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Forest Pennant, 5/1 Phar Again, Shining Gale, 13/2 Paradise Regained, 14/1 Dip Anchor, 20/1 Pop, 25/1 Pacco, This Way, 100/1 Grumpy Bee, Saddler George, You Know Bridie .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shining Gale is a lot better than he showed at Fontwell last time but even if back on song he could struggle to contain FOREST PENNANT, whose Chepstow win looks all the better now.[AWJ]

Walsh/Nicholls team up with hot pot Forest Pennant, currently 4/9. Each way options are available for all those pre 14/1 in the betting forecast. I'll opt for the middle man, Shining Gales each way

420
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Emerald Wilderness, 15/8 Woolcombe Folly, 7/2 Seven Is My Number, 7/1 Lord Crewe, 10/1 Come On Jonny, 20/1 Tufton, 50/1 Don Pietro, Schindlers Son, 100/1 Colorado Storm, Glowing Dawn, Lyon´s Hill, Skyler, Southway Queen .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Woolcombe Folly won't be long in winning judged on his bumper form but EMERALD WILDERNESS has experience and Flat speed, which should be a potent weapon around here, especially if conditions continue to dry out.[AWJ]

A 5 horse race ? - but what way in?
Another maiden hurdle so which way will it turn today? - will the 2 market leaders run to their odds or will one of the each ways succeed. Seven is my number at 4/1 looks backable each way, with the emphasis on the place only bet

FOOTBALL

Some tricky fixtures tonight. Liverpool, impressive winners against Barnsley in the FA Cup....................NOT! face a team not unsimilar to the mighty Barnsley in Inter Milan.
You know what's going to happen now don't you. Liverpool will ensure the Kopites et al will have to sit through nother 90 minutes of torture as they concede early

Treating Inter as a kind of "Top 4" equivalent we can expect a very tight affair and a potential under 2.5 goal trade. I don't expect home advantage to have any great bearing on proceedings this evening.
Winning margin dutch on 0 and 1 goals looks like it might come in if the expectation for a tight game is realised. I would create a break even position on 0 goals and profit loaded on 1 goal.

I expect Chelsea NOT to lose this evening, and a half time/full time bet replicating Nantes yesterday could work, at odds of 3.4, 5.8, 5.8 on Chelsea/Chelsea ; Draw/Chelsea ; Draw/Draw.
Olympiacos have not really been free scoring against their domestic opposition and Chelsea have the full compliment back.

Usually at this stage of the Champions League things get difficult and just because there's matches being played does not mean we have to entertain a bet. To be honest there will be easier games to analyse in the future. The games are seen as "one offs" so there is no real past history to consider

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