Wednesday 20 February 2008

21/2

Why I didn't go with overs in the Barcelona game is a mystery! Bets there went south. I was getting quite excited at Celtic 1-0 but that didn't last til half time. Celtic led half time and Barca won full time - bring on the rematch ,I think we'll have a fair idea of a betting angle!


The Arsenal Winning margin bet came in. Man Utd did struggle again ,helped by a late Tevez equaliser. We should feel fairly confident that we can get some decent bets in the rematches having seen these initial skirmishes.

All in all a tricky footballing night


Dress to impress won at a reasonable 1/2.

Fregate Island won the Kempton race which was a 3 in 1 system race. Given a choice was the selection but I did have a feeling this would fall to either/or and so it proved.

AYR

Begins with a 20 runner conditional jokcey handicap hurdle - hardly the Gold Cup and one to immediately steer clear of!

240
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Banoge, 5/1 Romping Home, 7/1 Good Evening, Start Royal, 8/1 Carrick Dhu, 14/1 Benmadigan, Box Wallah, Mr Multifix, 16/1 Silver Destiny, 33/1 Waterski, 40/1 Brocks Brae, Do It For Dalkey, 66/1 Castleroche, The Babe Magnet, 100/1 Rowdy Exit, Teviot Lass, 150/1 Maylee, 200/1 Classic Act .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Making too many excuses for BANOGE may be unwise but he was miles in front of Carrick Dhu over this C&D last month and the form of his defeat at short odds over 3m next time has worked out fine, so he is given another chance. Start Royal was a bit more like it last time and he could find the necessary improvement for this step up in trip.[PJ]

At first glance a race to avoid for dear life! 8 of the runners, however, are 50/1 or bigger reducing the field of those most likely to 10.

Romping home at 11/2 is the nearest rival to the hot pot whose form, by the way, does look solid, BUT you know about maiden hurdles by now I hope!
Romping each way for me here.

345
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Kalahari King, 5/1 Kyoto Summit, 7/1 Silver By Nature, 14/1 Salsero, The Depot Bar, 50/1 Hello My Lovely, 100/1 Cassius, Currahee, Mr Twins, Silverdales, Sriology .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KALAHARI KING was being touted as a possible Cheltenham contender after dotting up at Musselburgh (still holds the Supreme entry) and looks a good thing to put his Doncaster defeat behind him.[AWJ]

In the unlikely event Kalahari King doesn't win, Silver by nature for me each way looks good for a place at least.

520 - potentially dutchable but this is a hunter chase - the type of race in which a horse like thisthatandother at 1/7 can get beaten!

CLONMEL
525
Willie Mullins has another favourite and Uimhiraceaathair is provisionally 6/4 fav with Good time Bob 2/1. A dutchable race here I will engineer a breakeven on Good time bob and load profit onto The Mullins horse -you know the one - begins with U!

I did have a case of Uimhiraceaathair once, but it cleared up with a bit of ointment.

HUNTINGDON

A 2 mile 5 f maiden hurdle starts the card here with 18 runners.!
220
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Brook No Argument, 11/2 Driving Miss Suzie, 7/1 Rosa Fina, 8/1 Eila, 9/1 Popcorn Rosie, Tiegs, 10/1 Cortesia, Just Beware, 14/1 Saraba, 16/1 Arisea, Upright Ima, 33/1 Present, 50/1 Miss Colmesnil .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BROOK NO ARGUMENT has been running well in novice contests recently and this looks a good opportunity for her to get off the mark. Popcorn Rosie is unexposed and going the right way, while Driving Miss Suzie and Rosa Fina are others worthy of consideration if the betting gives the right signals.[SR]

Mares only race, and the ladies can be a tad unpredictable. Brook no argument though is one to follow I think, and each way looks a good proposition. Load the place only bet and a little on the win.

NAD AL SHEEBA

515
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Jalil, 10/1 Basko De Zarautz, Dynamic Saint, Gloria De Campeao, 12/1 Escape Route, Halkin, 14/1 Acrobatic, Mulaqat, Public Forum, Rampallion, Vainglory, 20/1 Chinkara, Seabow, Tabadul, 25/1 Great Plains, 33/1 Bain Douche ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A maximum field but, although he's drawn on the outside, the one that makes the most appeal is Godolphin's JALIL, who created a most favourable impression on his UAE debut. He shaped that day as though the extra distance here is going to suit and is fancied to overcome a 9lb rise in the weights. Dynamic Saint ran well at this course last week in an eyeshield and may be the chief threat from this lower mark

A prominent price gap here for Jalil BUT do take note of the race type (handicap) and the rise in the weights

SOUTHWELL
Some old familiar faces in Hits only Jude, Another Genepi, Louisiade, Hucking HEat, Copperbottomed, all who have been winning in turn, but who's going to win today? The imponderables of the all weather!

WOLVES
750
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Dickie Le Davoir, 9/4 Landucci, 7/2 Raza Cab, 4/1 Dancing Wizard, 50/1 Moorside Diamond .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A case can be made for four of the five runners but DICKIE LE DAVOIR is the one doing the business right now and is fancied to go in again, provided he isn't caught napping off a steady pace

If a case can be made for 4 of the last 5 runners , then logic dictates, surely, that we should be backing the outside 2, currently 5/1 each (Dancing Wizard and Raza Cab)?



FOOTY


UEFA CUP TURN tonight and there are some interesting clashes where we could get some returns.


Bayern Munich should really gain adequate compensation against Aberdeen at home this time and I really would like, as with the first game, to see Frank Ribery playing. He would tear them apart. Again I feel confident enough that Miroslav Klose will score to put my hard earned on him in the market.

Over 2.5 goals looks a viable trading option. Bayern this time must prevail surely.

Spurs should consolidate the away victory at home this time against a Slavia Prague side who are no great shakes and do not meet Premiership quality sides that often. Half time/Full time on Spurs/Spurs ; Draw/Spurs leaves a break even on Spurs/Spurs and big profit on Draw/Spurs. If you want to swap this around, then a ratio of £15 on Spurs/Spurs and £4 on Draw/Spurs will load profit on Spuds and slight loss on the draw.

If we take the first game as a model, then under 2.5 goals in the Rangers game tonight looks a decent enough trade, probably to get out before the first half has ended.



MUG PUNTER ACCA

Yes it's the return of the mug punter acca after a sabbatical cursing those scousers against Barnsley
1Hamburg v FC Zurich (Laying FC Zurich @ 11.52)
2B Munich v Aberdeen (Backing B Munich @ 1.12)
3Fiorentina v Rosenborg (Laying Rosenborg @ 16.05)
4Bordeaux v Anderlecht (Laying Anderlecht @ 9.24)
5Tottenham v Slavia Prague (Backing Tottenham @ 1.32)
6Everton v Brann (Laying Brann @ 23.87)
7Villarreal v Zenit St Petersburg (Laying Zenit St Petersburg @ 13.31)

7-Folds
SelectionsOdds*StakePotential win
1,2,3,4,5,6 and 72.18£100.00£118.00

I am relying on Spurs and Bayern (again!) to get me the wins, all other shorties have been backed NOT to lose. All of these shorties have home advantae so laying the opposition is a good way in. 2.18 is a very reasonable price


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