6/12

Welll Millie the Filly didn't win - the perils of the shortie in heavy ground.COunt Fosco unplaced - look where the winner was in the betting forecast - Clemax
120 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Cyborg De Sou, 4/1 Clemax, Polar Gale, 7/1 Count Fosco, 8/1 Fairlight Shadow, Notaproblem, 10/1 Sparkling Taff, 33/1 Carndale, Mrdeegeethegeegee, Young Blade .
4/1 2nd fav.
Her name is Rio was unplaced despite the non runners - that's claimers for you
I thought I'd got the winner in Soldier field at 4/1 judging by the prices in the in running market but he finished 2nd returning each way backers' stakes. Spider Boy finished 2nd at 12/1 behind the jolly - ideally positioned if there was to be any problems with the "sure thing" - nice return for each way backers
Arsenal scored first and I traded out - the advantages of placing your bet with Betfair and going in running - 1.86 down to 1.35 after the goal.
First goal in the Villareal game after 2 minutes , 2nd goal 51 minutes enabled me to trade out of overs with 39 minutes of the 2nd half to go and market makers thinking over 2.5 goals was more likely.
Soft to HEavy ground at Clonmel tempers enthusiasm
100 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Serhaaphim, 5/2 Jeanquiri, 7/2 Its Moon, 11/2 Starbougg, 14/1 Abounding, 20/1 Ceilidh Lass, Sisterhood, 25/1 Cat Six, 33/1 Pleasurable, 50/1 Princesse D´Agnoun, 200/1 First Frost .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The three previous winners all have something to recommend them in what looks a warmish race but SERHAAPHIM (nap) put up a decent effort to win at Plumpton considering her lack of experience and gets the vote. Its Moon and Jeanquiri are likely to provide a serious test while Starbougg is best of the others5 can bediscounted if the early market is to be believed leaving 6 potential contenders for the places. Although not an ideal each way price, Its Moon looks placed to place!

300 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Nacadour, 5/1 Palmers Peak, 8/1 Minella Lodge, 9/1 Caged Tiger, 10/1 Ballynonty, Donald Will Do, Jackella, 33/1 Furze Hill, 50/1 Morgan The Mighty, 66/1 Daisyplant, Flemen Loon .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race which will not take much winning and NACADOUR, despite a rather lacklustre display on his reappearance, may well be equal to the task with his experience over fences in France expected to stand him in good stead. Palmers Peak has a lengthy absence to overcome but may prove most dangerousHArdly a convincing write up by Verdict - what does Spotlight say?
Nacadour Placed over fences in France and third all three starts in British novice hurdles last winter; wore cheekpieces for the first time and prominent in the betting but disappointed in strongly contested Cheltenham novice handicap hurdle on reappearance; muchless to do in this company and, although fast ground is an unknown factor, likely to prove hard to beat with a clear round having given the impression he will be suited by further than 2m4f.

"likely to be hard to beat"
Yes AP McCOy rides and there is a noticeable price gap but I am not convinced that I would want to be backing this one with a couple of niggles highlighted by Spotlight and over 2 miles 7 furlongs in good to soft ground ( which may deteriorate as the day goes on)

330 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Rapscallion, 7/1 Inmate, 14/1 Meadow Hawk, Upright Ima, 16/1 Bold Trump, Lady Suffragette, Westgate, 25/1 My Matilda, 33/1 Primitive Academy, 50/1 Barton Belle, Double The Trouble, Iberus, 66/1 Rojabaa, 100/1 Always Baileys, I´m A Legend .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to get away from the rejuvenated RAPSCALLION. Lady Suffragette is suggested as the best each-way alternative.[FC]Contrast with Nacadour -"difficult to get away from" -very noticeable price gap. The price is very offputting at 1/2 although may be worth pursuing from an in running perspective - laying off in running as (hopefully) the price shortens with Rapscallion's run

120 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Pop, 4/1 Apollo Creed, 9/1 Great Grimsby, 10/1 Border Fox, 12/1 Punjabi Army, 14/1 No Telling, 16/1 Freddie Ed, Lifes A Mystery, 25/1 The Masters Lesson, 33/1 Ding Dang Do .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POP started his hurdles career with a good run at Warwick recently and a reproduction of that effort would make him hard to beat. Most of the others have a bit to prove.
"make him hard to beat" - Of concern to me here is the soft ground and the proximity of Apollo Creed.

920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Satin Braid, 9/2 My Michelle, 5/1 Northern Boy, 6/1 Defi, 7/1 Tom Paris, 8/1 Putra Laju, United Nations, 12/1 Stanley George, 16/1 Very Well Red .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MY MICHELLE, who should be able to grab the rail from stall 5, looks the safest option. Satin Braid is feared most.A tight knit handicap hinting we may be able to swerve the more obvious contenders - TOm PAris each way for me.

Short prices over jumps in ground that will soften as the day progesses does not make this the ideal betting day at all. I am not convinced by NAcadour, and my only real bet of interest is Rapscallion but he'll start at a restrictive price. Ideally a no bet day with the promise of better quality racing at the weekend.

FOOTY
Using trading yesterday enabled me to profit. Tonight there's more UEFA Cup football and I cannot entertain Spurs at all against Anderlecht . I am unsure which Getafe team will be picked this evening, having let me down with a weakened team at home last game.
I would lay Red Star Belgrade at home to Bolton this evening - 2.3 on BEtfair - all dependent of course on whether Gary Megson fields a weakened team - if he does then no bet for me.

A very quiet day today given ground conditions and lack of strong football opportunities - given ground conditions you may want to consider a no bet day