The Spurs match was frustrating - yes an early goal could have allowed for trading of the over 2.5 goal market. A late 2nd goal for Spurs didn't help funnily enough. The odds fleetingly returned to around 3.5 allowed some semblance of a salvage operation. From listening to the commentary it was obvious MAn City hadn't brought their shooting boots with them against 10 man Spuds
Again those words "precautionary inspection" at BAngor doesn't instill any confidence in what will be another frustrating day and another probable venture into the UEFA Cup this evening. The 1250 at BAngor sees a possible clash between AMmunition and Olay Olay
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Olay Olay, 3/1 Ammunition, 7/1 Supreme Cara, 8/1 Ballabriggs, 10/1 Megaton, 12/1 Pasagai, 14/1 Billyandi, 16/1 Comber, Union Deux, 20/1 Premiership, Young Yozza .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks likely to concern the two previous chase winners Ammunition and OLAY OLAY (nap). Jonjo O'Neill's charge looked a horse to follow when trouncing subsequent dual winner Super Road Train at Wetherby two starts ago and is preferred |
For me Supremem CAra and Ballabriggs each way look worthy of support in the hope this race won't finish 1-2 for Ammunitiion and Olay Olay
120 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Openditch, 5/2 Nodforms Paula, 11/4 Whiteoak, 7/1 Important Business, 10/1 Where´s The Boss, 20/1 Merchant Red, 33/1 Killfinnan Castle, 50/1 Kayf Diamond, Pippling, 100/1 Jack London, 200/1 Cengiz, First Stop .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Openditch did it well at Lingfield but he's no good thing to concede so much weight to WHITEOAK, who has strong claims if repeating her latest effort in a good little heat at Uttoxeter. Nodforms Paula also merits attention on his jumping debut |
3 tiers here?
TIER 1 - Openditch , Nodforms PAula and Whiteoak
TIER 2 - not quite the outsiders - Important Business and Where's the Boss
TIER 3 - perceived outsiders from Merchant Red onwards
Expectation is the the winner and placed horses will come from Tiers 1 and 2, most likely Tier 1 for the winner, and in Whiteoak we may have a horse we can back primarily for the place with a little bit on the win only at odds of around 3/1 - he looks positioned to place
225 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Flintoff, 4/1 Poker De Sivola, 5/1 Knighton Lad, 11/2 Gunner Jack, 9/1 Norton Sapphire, 12/1 Mith Hill, 16/1 Karelian, Overserved, 20/1 Football Crazy, Mirjan, 25/1 Allistathebarrista, Raslan .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Knighton Lad and Poker De Sivola both come here on the back of career-best efforts and have more to offer, but they have bumped into a well-treated rival in the shape of FLINTOFF, who improved significantly over fences last season and is 20lb lower over hurdles |
Flintoff was a horse I remembered well from the flat having notched up a couple of decent wins but he's tackling 3 miles over obstacles now. At 3/1, again not an ideal each way price but worthy of support again with emphasis on the place only aspect of the bet.
KEMPTON
No ground problems with the all weather surface for tonight's meeting
720
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Rabbit Fighter, 7/1 Willhewiz, 10/1 No Time, 12/1 Green Lagonda, Rhapsilian, Strabinios King, 14/1 Desert Light, Imperium, Monashee Prince, 20/1 With Confidence, 25/1 Hucking Hope, 33/1 Kadouchski .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to oppose RABBIT FIGHTER (nap) who slammed Willhewiz over C&D last week on only his second try at this trip and ought to have no trouble in confirming his superiority on only 5lb worse terms |
A potential price gapper here in rabbit fighter " hard to oppose"
Rabbit Fighter Went handicapping off very tough mark but found his level again on Polytrack of late and revelation dropped back to this trip last week when scoring by 4l from Willhewiz in course-record time; only 5lb higher tonight and hard to beat if he reproduces that effort from another good draw
Now there is a possibility everyone might be getting carried away with one impressive run and expecting an automatic reproduction of that last effort and an expectation of an easy victory.
I have mentioned before the importance of the draw in sprint distances and Rabbit fighter has a good draw, so is one I can side with today I think at an unattractive 5/6 early morning show
820 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Amical Risks, 9/4 Auntie Mame, 11/4 Verbatim, 14/1 Rollin ´n Tumblin, 16/1 Cyril The Squirrel, 25/1 Big Ralph, 50/1 Elmasong, Haydock Express .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A very weak maiden and market confidence behind the ex-French AMICAL RISKS on his debut for Willie Musson will tell its own tale. Auntie Mame and Verbatim have had their chances but still look easily best of the rest |
Looking at maidens at 820 this early on - we will be at a distinct disadvantage as the live betting market will reveal all.
As things stand this looks a clear 3 horse race and Verbatim is the best priced from an each way perspective
1240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sawwaah, 3/1 New World Order, 5/1 Barry Island, King´s Majesty, Ryan´s Future, 20/1 Anduril, 50/1 Pink Salmon, 100/1 Dickie Deano, Keagles, Tagula Song ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sawwaah has been called some names in the past but he's a lot more reliable these days at the right level and should go close now he's had a spin. However, KING'S MAJESTY is the call back on the Flat. |
A claiming stakes race is perhaps not an ideal betting medium but there looks to be a distinct group of horses prior to the 20/1 Anduril with chances from an each way perspective. Ryan's Future is the biggest priced of the quintet and is my each way selection
NEWBURY
Good to soft ground
1230
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Group Captain, 6/1 Kingscape, 13/2 Jardin De Vienne, 10/1 Outlandish, 16/1 Baseball Ted, Desert Star, Don Pietro, Single Player, 18/1 Luxurix, Mancebo, 20/1 Honduras, Majaales, 25/1 Trans Sonic, 28/1 Farewell Gift, 33/1 Pochard, Stripe Me Blue, 66/1 Cadoulitique, 80/1 Phone Call .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jardin de Vienne has the best hurdles form but though his latest second at Plumpton represented another improved effort, he is vulnerable up against a couple of useful recruits from the Flat in GROUP CAPTAIN and Kingscape. This is a different discipline but Group Captain is currently rated 28lb superior to Kingscape by the Flat handicapper and, as such, has to be the clear choice |
An opportunity to take on a short price favourite in a maiden hurdle in Group Captain. Kingscape each way looks a viable alternative although I suspect there will be a surprise or 2
310 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Trust Fund, 5/2 Harrycone Lewis, 4/1 King Harald, 10/1 Harry´s Dream, 14/1 Mr Fluffy, 20/1 Si Grand .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRUST FUND (nap) looks the one to be on having won with so much in hand at Wincanton, though he wouldn't want to get embroiled in an early battle for the lead and both King Harald and Harrycone Lewis also like to be up ther |
A chance to back Harrycone Lewis and King HArold ( currently 5/1 each ) against the market leader in the hope that over the 3 miles 2 furlongs he may make a mistake or 2
I'm still not convinced of success in today's racing - I guess I'm mindful that the ground has, and is, playing havoc with results and analysis.
THe ideal for me today is to get out at a profit should a reasonable winner come early.
FOOTY
An okay night last night - leaving the match odds alone proved fruiful and again tonight there's some Carling cup action, with the weeken losers taking each other on .
The Carling Cup this evening will probably be ataken seriously by both coaches this evening and I would hope for strong teams for both.
The interesting stat is that Chelsea do not lose at home which makes the lay of Liverpool appealing, again from a trading perspective. Remember Blackburn last night were about 2.8 to lay but went out to 25 to back in running after losing 2 goals.
Liverpool are 3.85 to lay which is reasonable enough especially if we look at the in running perspective.
Unlike last night's matches, I expect a game as tight as the weekend with one goal probably settling matters. Chelsea miss Drogba of course , which may make under 2.5 goal trading appealing, although the odds of 1.68 mean that market makers expect a low scoring affair.
ITALIAN CUP
Just how serious Inter will take this game I don't know -they are away from home and priced 1/2 -fully expected to win.Reggina +1 and +1.5 on the asian handicap makes some appeal to me -I hope they can keep the score down.
Previous games between these 2 have been very tight affairs indeed and a throwaway back of under 1.5 goals at 3.6 on BEtfair can allow for some element of trading if Reggina can keep things tight.
The problem is Inter have been scoring freely of late, and generally won 2-0 away from home recently, but I must take account of their performances against Reggina in the past - a possible bogey team?
UEFA CUP
ANte post favourites BAyern Munich play tonight against Aris . A possible concern is BAyern's recent inability to score as freely as a team with the likes of Ribery in it should. 2 consecutive 0-0's and a drop in class of opposition should allow the goals to come flooding in this evening, and it is with this in mind that ,firstly, I will try backing BAyern in the half time/full time market at enhanced odds of 1.77.If you wanted to you could include the draw/BAyern result half time/full time, but personally I'll take the chance with Bayern/Bayern
Galatasary face a must win game tonight - although a win might not secure Eurpean football. In order to enahnce odds, I'm going for another mug accumulator - yes thet've all gone tits up, but this may have some semblance of success
| 1 | Braga v Crvena Zvezda (Laying Crvena Zvezda @ 16.95) |
| 2 | B Munich v Aris Thes. (Laying Aris Thes. @ 57.93) |
| 3 | Galatasaray v Austria Vienna (Backing Galatasaray @ 1.26) |
| 4 | Alicante v Real Madrid (Laying Alicante @ 9.29) |
| Selections | Odds* | Stake | Potential win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1,2,3 and 4 | 1.53 | £100.00 | £53.00 |
Backing this acca returns 1.53 odds which are reasonable enough as we cover the draw in all eventualities and all teams are facing far superior opposition. I have gacked Galatasary because of the "must win" status of this game
Elsewhere which Getafe side will show up at home tonight? A weakened side was fields in the loss to Hapoel last home game. A strong side ensures my support at evens for a tight home win
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