15/12

Heads on the ground came 2nd at 4/1 -course and distance winners are really worth following in these specialist cross country races. Another fecking 2nd for Roman Villa at least returned stakes Three Boars 2nd at 2/5 - far too short to entertain backing
Tanforan unplaced. Another 2nd for Moment of claritybut followers of the live market will have noted Alfie Tupper's drop in price top favouratism

Frustrating day of seconditis yesterday
CHELTENHAM - good ground should be no problem
1220
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Franchoek, 6/1 Harper Valley, Indian Blood, 7/1 Art Professor, 12/1 Zanir, 14/1 Lemon Silk, 16/1 Erdeli, Russian Invader, 20/1 Bantry Bere, Rhum Brun, 33/1 Callisto Moon, Sonara.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRANCHOEK (nap) left the opposition for dead here last time and it will take something special to lower his colours if he's in the same form. Harper Valley may improve for blinkers and ranks with Art Professor as the best of the others with experience but there are a couple of interesting newcomers in the shape of Indian Blood and Erdeli

Another possible "hard to beat" - "will take somethin special to lower his colours" - The price is a shade of odds on but Robert Thornton is in the plate and he is worthy of support
310
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sublimity, 9/2 Afsoun, 5/1 Katchit, 11/2 Macs Joy, 15/2 Desert Quest, 8/1 Osana, 9/1 Straw Bear, 40/1 Penzance.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Connections have made it clear it's not the end of the world if reigning champ SUBLIMITY gets beaten as he is not fully wound up but, if he's in the right frame of mind, his class might see him through. He has delivered in lesser company after a layoff and it's hard to forget what small beer he made the old guard and Afsoun look in last year's Champion Hurdle. Macs Joy, who wasn't right last season and was beaten by race-fit rivals on his reappearance, has to be feared in receipt of 8lb.[

A very tight race and a scoop 6 race to boot meaning we can take on the market leaders - I will chance Desert Quest here each way, positioned away from the market leaders but not so far away as to be deemed uncompetitive
340
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Razor Royale, 7/2 Souffleur, 9/2 Native Royal, 5/1 Gansey, 13/2 Nenuphar Collonges, 9/1 Gone To Lunch, 12/1 Aldhaher Beebers, 300/1 The Langer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not an easy puzzle to crack. NATIVE ROYAL has a good shout on her third over an inadequate trip here last time, given how the form is working out, and although she put up a lacklustre show on the only occasion she tried 3m, her dam won over that distance. Souffleur remains firmly on an upward curve, while Razor Royale and the well-regarded Gansey could be anything and Nenuphar Collonges will appreciate the step back up in trip, so confidence cannot be strong.[

"not an easy puzzle to crack" suggests the market leaders can be swerved? Nenaphur Collonges each way for me. I cannot see the front 2 in the market 1st and 2nd
DONCASTER
An inspection this morning but big fields anyway make this unappealing
FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kazal, 7/2 Sizing Australia, 6/1 Pontium, 8/1 He´s On His Way, 10/1 Life For Rent, 12/1 The Halfway Bar, 14/1 Ben Adam, Now You Have It, 16/1 Bryansford Belle, 20/1 Canadian Sunset, Dusties Boy, High Fidelitay, Russet Prince, Umrigar Lord, 25/1 Congenial Gent, Ghost Soldier,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KAZAL will be very hard to beat with an error-free round.

Another "very hard to beat" albeit in a big field
LINGFIELD
335
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Osako D´Airy, 11/2 First Feerie, 6/1 Danse Macabre, Gala Evening, 8/1 Sebastiano, 9/1 Arisea, Rebel Raider, 20/1 Rawaabet, 25/1 Sharbasia.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OSAKO D'AIRY (nap) is the strikingly in-form runner, very much the one to beat despite his big weight. First Feerie is open to progress embarking on her second season hurdling and is feared most
Another "very much the one to beat" - slight concern with the weight concession and the fact that the horse is a multiple handicap winner . HEavy ground again raises concerns but some solace in the fact the selection was a winner on heavy last time out
730 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Fenners, 100/30 Me Fein, 4/1 All Tied Up, 9/2 Zalkani, 11/2 Arondo, 16/1 Tanning, 28/1 I Will If You Will, 33/1 Trackattack, 66/1 Litigious, Namiguest.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Me Fein has let his supporters down twice since laughing at his rivals when a heavily backed winner in the summer and, though it would be no surprise to see him get his head back in front, it may be worth siding with ZALKANI who may have more tactical speed now back down in trip than course debutant Fenners. Both Irish raiders seem to have a bit to find on the figures
May be worth tackling this race as there are 4 we can hopefully discount.
Me Fein has won as a Barney Curley horse - now changed stables and couldn't be relied upon to win .This leaves me a short list of Fenners, All Tied up, Zalkani and Arondo and I'll chance Arondo here each way - probability wise the horse has 3 to beat to place if we can discount the 4 outsiders and Tanning
855 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Confidentiality, 11/4 Lobengula, 4/1 Stargazer Jim, 10/1 Millfield, 12/1 Inside Story, 20/1 Touch Of Style.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fascinating clash of two AW titans. CONFIDENTIALITY and Lobengula have both gone from strength to strength lately and though the handicapper must surely be close to catching up with them now, the selection showed no sign of her busy spell catching up with her on Thursday when again barely off the bridle. Stargazer Jim is the likely beneficiary if both of them run below expectations
My nemisis runs again, and can you see the change in prices - now odds against when previously going off at 4/9 - this could be the opportunity to get Confidentiality beaten? Won by a neck last time out although was sipping a cognac and having a cigar at the time.
7 runners mean this cannot ideally be tackled from an each way perspective. Stargazer Jim and Lobengula to level stakes here
FOOTY
A full weekend of football sees some interesting clashes
PREMIERSHIP
New management and improved performances from the likes of Middlesbrough make these transitional teams diffcult to pin down. Derby - new management - Birmingham - new management - Middlesbrough - superb and vastly improved recent performance - will they sustain this?
Over 2.5 goals in all of Brimingham's recent games should be replicated here as they take on Reading .
From a sequencing perspective, 3 home draws on the trot - and 0-0's to boot means that we should expect something different for Portsmouth's game against Spurs.
I would look to lay the draw here to begin with and trade in running
Leeds have been free scoring recently and may be worth backing at 11/10 to keep the excellent run continuing