11/12

Why can't all over 2.5 goal trades be like the Swansea v Horsham game? 2-1 after 23 minutes - oh happy days. Again getting odds of 1.59 about a team pre match 1.18 was a very decent bet given the gulf in class.
In fact you could have backed Swansea at 1.56 in the match odds market after going down 2-1. Now Swansea were always likely to win and waiting for opportunities like this where the underdog takes a lead are worth sniffing out.
Quiet day with the horses, Desert Life placed to return each way stakes and Nanton was unplaced.
Let's look at the betting forecast for that again, and you'll see why luck plays a big part.
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tucker, 11/4 Nanton, 8/1 Knight Valliant, Run To Space, Yachvili, 10/1 Montchara, 12/1 Super Cris, 25/1 Rory´s Star, 33/1 Devil Water, Hunting Haze, 50/1 Modarab .
Who did I chose? - Nanton. Who won? Knight Valiant - next in the betting forecast! - Extremely frustrating!

3 meetings today and little in the way of choice

110 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Mendo, 11/4 O´Maley, 3/1 Jean Le Poisson, 9/2 Noble Ben, 8/1 Shardakhan, 100/1 The Chisholm .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MENDO could be the answer to a hot little contest for Fontwell on a Tuesday. He has been on a roll over hurdles but Noel Chance has always maintained that fences will be the making of him and he's undoubtedly promisingThis bet is all about probability. Omaley and Jean Le Poisson are each at 7/2 and 3/1 in the early market and can be backed at level stakes. Infact with the shortest priced at 3/1 you could include a 3rd horse and break even on the 3/1 shot
" A hot little contest" - suggests the favourite may not be nailed on?

120 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ten Carat, 4/1 Dawn Ride, 6/1 General Hardi, High Tech Made, 7/1 Devils And Dust, The Green Hat, 14/1 Carry Duff, 25/1 Thenford Lord, 33/1 Astorvale, Noquina, 66/1 Cwm Chwefru, Flemen Loon, Minster Lake, 100/1 Chirapatre, Wee Sean .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ten Carat is capable of winning a race of this nature but the fact that he's not scored since 2003 is a bit of a concern. Preference is for HIGH TECH MADE, who showed only modest form over hurdles but he's bred to fare better in this sphere and his stable is always respected in this type of event
A maiden chase -a race where we can look for each way alternatives against the favourite whi has " not scored since 2003".
15 runners looks too many ,but 6 horses are 66/1 or greater in the early market, whittling the field of those " most likely" down to 9. With a field of 9 vying for 3 places, they all only have 6 to beat to place.
I'm going mob handed here with the Green Hat and Dawn Ride each way in the hope that the favourite falters

150 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bluto, 11/4 Strathaird, 11/2 Elizabeth Garrett, 10/1 Bobansheil, 14/1 Ingleby Hill, King Verti, Wingsinmotion, 33/1 Shady Bay, 66/1 Beaumont Boy .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The key race is the one in which Strathaird beat stable companion BLUTO in a seller at Wetherby last time (several of today's rivals behind). On these terms, the more unexposed Bluto must have fair prospects of reversing those placings
Bluto comes out on top in a couple of systems I'm monitoring but these systems are based on ratings and not race type - selling hurdle - Strathaird is 4/1 and an obvious candidate each way, as is Elizabeth Garret in a messy race

320 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Miss Pross, 5/1 Cash Man, Sculastic, 7/1 Go Figure, 10/1 Bob´s Dream, Kathuna, 14/1 Cheer Us On, The Joker, 20/1 Moyne Pleasure .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several in with a shout but this could go to MISS PROSS (nap), who showed she retains all her ability after a break last week and she will be suited by the return to her favourite course.
Possible price gapper
POSITIVES - napped as the best bet on the card - is a multiple winner at this particular course (horses for courses?), price gap remains in the early market
NEGATIVES - a handicap hurdle where all horses are weighted theoretically to cross the line together.This is the last race on teh card and any change, or worsening in ground, will be enhanced.
Worthy of support I think, with in running monitoring - safety consious will back for a place only

1230 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Fast Freddie, 4/1 Grand Palace, 13/2 Elusive Warrior, 7/1 Mister Always, Trinculo, 10/1 Savile´s Delight, 12/1 Double Carpet, Kennington, 25/1 Christian Bendix, Obe One .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fast Freddie will be popular in his bid for a four-timer but he has much more to prove under these different conditions and may struggle to hold off GRAND PALACE (nap) on these greatly revised terms. The selection knows his way round here which is nearly always an advantage, and will benefit from stronger handling than he had last time. Elusive Warrior will surely run better than he did last week.
Unlike confidentiality, another multiple handicap winner, Fast Freddie's price puts a doubt in backer's minds. As ever in these handicaps, multiple winners will find it increasingly difficult to score again ( unless their name is Confidentiality of course!). Priced at 11/4, this is not sure thing (unlike Confidentiality's 4/9 last race)
At current 10/3 GRand Palace is the obvious alternative ,not quite an each way price so loading the place only part of the bet, and retaining some stake for the win may pay off.

100 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Quiet Times, 4/1 Mister Elegant, 8/1 Dunn Deal, 12/1 Phinerine, 14/1 Alexia Rose, 16/1 Temtation, 33/1 Heidi Hi, Stanley Wolfe ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUIET TIMES has a good record here and is difficult to oppose despite reservations about his wide draw, having returned from his summer break in good hear
" difficult to oppose" puts Quiet Times in the Hard to BEat bet category, but I note it is a seller which is wholly offputting. Mister Elegant is niggling away at Quiet Times and is a little close price wise for me. An 8 runner field now with 4 horses priced 18/1 and bigger will make life a lot easier for the front 2, having only 1 horse to beat to place in the top 3.
With this in mind, Mister Elegant looks an ideal each way candidate, given the information Spotlight has imparted about the draw concerns on the jolly. Over 6 furlongs the hope is that the draw will be sufficiently awkward for Quiet Times to open the door up.

A very uninspiring day's racing with shorties in sellers and handicap chases being less than ideal.
Caution must be taken at Sedgefield today as there has been a morning inspection which is not a good sign. Any hint of heavy ground or soft ground and I will leave Sedgefield alone.

FOOTY

With the Champions LEague upon us again, this may be the area I focus on today.
Chelsea look standout tonight against a Valencia side who were beaten twice by Rosenborg - compare Valencia's poor performance against Chelsea's professional performance away, and we have a good opportunity to back Chelsea at 8/11. Personal preference will be to lay VAlencia and cover the draw.
Chelsea never lose at home - right?
TAke Liverpool to make life difficult away to Marseilles tonight. Laying Liverpool with a view to trading should MArseilles score or the score to remain at 0-0 for a long period. At 5/6 they must be lay material (not an all out bet mind, remember the word TRADE)

Port VAle look worthy of support at 8/13 away to Chasetown in the FA Cup . Chasetown have Duncan Norvelle back fit (Chase me Chase me!) .

2 consecutive draws for the Bhoys should see them back to winning ways against Falkirk, who they tanked 4-1 at their place last time out.
I will chance Celtic/Celtic Half time/fulltime at 1.69, although there is a niggle in the back of my mind as to why the price is so high about 2/9 shots at home - perhaps it was the lacklustre recent performance against St Mirren.
I expect an easy win this evening based on the fact they have drawn last twice.
Looking at Rangers perfomance against Falkirk and we should expect a similar score - 3-1