22/12

Both selections placed yesterday so very marginal losses. At least they were competitive. The ideal is for the place only part of the bet on Betfair to be 2.00 or bigger thus guaranteeing a break even should selections place but yesterday the place only prices were around 1.86 which meant we got a large proportion of our win only stakes back for placing and, of course, all of our palce only stakes

Ascot has to pass an 1130 inspection , Newcastle is abandoned and Haydock goess ahead after another inspection. THese should provide warning signs that races probably wont all go the way of the form horses.

HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Hidden Bounty, 9/2 See You There, 11/2 Meggie´s Beau, 6/1 High Cotton, Sharp Belline, 7/1 Back In Business, 12/1 Jungle Jinks, Special Conquest, 14/1 Countess Trifaldi .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Reasons to take on most of these and things may yet fall right for High Cotton at this late stage. However, SEE YOU THERE will appreciate the return to this trip after failing to see out 4m last month and is preferred.

See you there each way for me - a distance winner over this specialist trip

340 LING

No.	Form	Horse	Trainer RTF %		Wgt	Jockey
1(2)	111002	Gentleman´s Deal 28	M W Easterby 67	6	9-7	Paul Mulrennan		9	115	81	13/8	13/8
2(3)	453581	Grand Passion 28	G Wragg —	7	9-5	Steve Drowne		3	115	114	3	7/2
3(4)	250053	Millville 28	M A Jarvis 0	7	9-3	N Callan		1	113	61	10/3	7/2
4(1)	488912	Troubadour 35	W Jarvis 33	6	9-3	T P Queally		2	113	97	11/2	13/2
5(5)	328-99	Kahlua Kiss 28	W R Muir 80	4	8-12	Hayley Turner			111	44	25	40
6(6)	213845	Voliere 21	S C Williams 75	4	8-12	J-P Guillambert			109	95	14	16

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Gentleman´s Deal, 9/4 Grand Passion, 3/1 Millville, 7/1 Troubadour, 16/1 Voliere, 33/1 Kahlua Kiss.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A hot contest and hopefully one that won't be spoilt by the lack of an early gallop. Millville's best chance of success might be to press on early but that would set things up nicely for Grand Passion and in the unknown circumstances GENTLEMAN'S DEAL, who is the most tactically flexible of the three, just gets the vote.[EMW]

" a hot contest"with Gentlemans Deal who "just gets the vote" - surely this is evidence enough that the market leader is no shoe in?
With the prices for 2nd and 3rd favs currently 7/2 ,they can both be backed to level stakes should Gentlemans Deal find life difficult

1155 NAVAN

A huge field for a maiden hurdle -30 runners and Sky Hall is 1/2 to win - this may suggest a lot of dead wood in this big field event, but I certainly won't be backing at that price. Capel Lad at 4/1 represents a decent alternative incase the market leader falters

1225 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Mick The Man, 7/2 Belle Artiste, 12/1 Ouhetu Des Mottes, 14/1 Sister Moira, 16/1 Dromore Express, Quarryfield Lass, 20/1 Coolbay House, Kicking Bull, Locked, 25/1 Benloyal, Charming Hills, Faoi Draiocht, Island Arrow, King Of The Opera, Oddshoes, Sole Bonne Femme, 33/1 An Carrig Rua, Ballyneale Breeze, Blue Steel Boy, Bobs Yer Uncle, Busaco, Kerry Leader, Madame Les Jambes, Millars Corner, Ross Accord, 50/1 Andthatsthewayitis, Classicworksofart, Dunadry Girl, Fiery Riley, Lisbellaw Express.

A poor case of seconditis for Mick the Man and I expect him to redress the balance today, although the percentage call with such a big field is to lay with a view to trading pre race or in running should any of the 29 other runners cause mistakes.At 1/3 liabilities are minimal

700 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nawamees, 5/2 Musango, 7/1 Atlantic Gamble, Easibet Dot Net, 10/1 Cool Isle, 12/1 Mr Excel, 20/1 Welcome Cat, 25/1 Chasing Memories, 66/1 Diamond Josh .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's nothing to choose between Nawamees and MUSANGO on recent Lingfield running and the Kelleway runner is taken to turn things round

"nothing to chose between" - then why not ot for the bigger priced horse - currently Musango who can be backed each way, or at least with emphasis on the place only part of the bet and a little to cover the win

FOOTY

As my showbiz pal Ronnie Corbet would say " and in a packed programme today" there's plenty of opportunity for selective bets today

First port of call is the Arse facing the Spuds in a London derby at the Emirates. An interesting game for all sorts of reasons. Looking back at recent encounters and the majority of goals have come in the 2nd half of games this year

15/9 -goals came in 15th minute then 65th minute, 80th minute, 90th minute
21/4 - goals came in 30th minute then 64th, 78th, 90th

Recent head to heads at home and Arsenal have won 1 and drawn 1.

In tha last 3 meetings we have had over 2.5 goals with 1-1 results prior to those.

Arsenal have won 2 of their recent home games, and interestingly away from home have lost to Boro and Newcastle. These 2 games have added significance with talk of a formula to knock the Arse off their stride - perhaps something to note for Sergio Ramos

THe Spuds recent away form has seen 2 score draws and a win by 1 away to Portsmouth - a very good result given Portsmouth's form.

So what can we glean from the above? Firstly for any person looking to trade the game, there may be late goals. Secondly, Spurs have scored the firsst goal in the last 2 meetings so anyone waiting to play in running could back Arsenal at enhanced odds if they go a goal behind.

An over 2.5 goals trade looks reasonable here with the prospect of at least one goal in the 1st half.

Spurs have not played any of the top 4 in their last 6 games so will be stepping up in class today
So for me it's over 2.5 goals and a very speculative bet on Spurs/Arsenal half time/full time at odds of 27 with a throw away stake.
TRADERS - watch out for 2nd half goals and lay Spurs if they take the lead.

Bolton v Brum looks a decent punt for an under 2.5 goal trade. 2 new managers will signal a tighter game for each side.

Portsmouth - superb away form and abysmal recent home form - they cannot score at home but score freely away from home, albeit against teams not in the top 4. Liverpool look worth a lay to me at 1.57 or perhaps backing Portsmouth at massive 7.6 -if they score first then this will be a good trading opportunity.

Leeds half time/full time at 2.3 represents decent odds for a home team scoring freely against an away team they tonked 3-0 at their gaff

Roma v Sampdoria may be worth backing at 2.88 for the over 3.5 goals with one eye on trading - Sampdoria have scored in each of their last 6 matches and recent head to heads have seen goals goals goals. Do try to engineer a green screen as ,if 2 goals have been scored early, then the 2.88 we backed will reduce greatly - one word of caution - the over 3.5 goals market may not be as liquid as others.