Wednesday 18 April 2012

18/4

5pm - FC Copenhagen v SonderjyskE - 1.38 home - a Danish Cup match. I was going to research if it was the league as Copenhagen at home are ultra dominant.

11.03.2012D1FC København2-0SønderjyskE
17.07.2011D1SønderjyskE0-2FC København
01.05.2011D1FC København3-0SønderjyskE
14.11.2010D1SønderjyskE3-3FC København
18.07.2010D1SønderjyskE1-3FC København
16.05.2010D1FC København3-1SønderjyskE

Well, Copenhagen are dominant in 2011 onwards with 3 wins, 7 goals scored and none conceded. I don't know anything about possible weakened teams, but obviously, 2-0, 3-0 correct scores stand out and historically, ( dependent on the time of the 2nd goal), over 2.5 goals may be an option.
A match to note if Sonderjyske score first as they are unlikely to hold out if history is an accurate marker.
5pm - Giannina v Olympiakos - 1.78 away
HEAD TO HEADS
18.12.2011D1Olympiakos Pireus2-0PAS Giannina
13.08.2011CFPAS Giannina0-0Olympiakos Pireus
13.03.2010D1Olympiakos Pireus2-2PAS Giannina
21.11.2009D1PAS Giannina2-2Olympiakos Pireus
31.01.2007CupOlympiakos Pireus2-1 AETPAS Giannina
17.01.2007CupPAS Giannina2-0Olympiakos Pireus

Away from friendlies, Oly seem able to score 2 goals against Giannina. Their price however today reflects a tough match in prospect. 
LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 1st - a 7 point lead over Panathanaikos at this stage of the season may allow for complacency?  There are actually, according to www.futbol24.com, 2 matches left for Oly this season, so I don't need Carol Vorderman , or the even more beautiful Rachel Riley from Countdown. to tell me Oly cannot be reached and have won the title? 
If this is correct, then this is a dead rubber for both sides, looking forward to a summer vacation to the beautiful Greek Islands.

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Giannina

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDLDDLWLWWDW - 3 wins in last 4 impressive includes a 2-1 against 5th in the league. 0-1 home defeat to 2nd and 1-2 loss v 3rd. 

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWDWDWW - great recent form to end the season with something of a flourish. In the last 5 matches, both teams have scored and conceded.It must be said that in 5 matches home and away to top 3, it's 2-0 loss, 0-1 loss, 1-3 loss, 1-2 loss, 1-0 loss. 

GOAL TRENDS - 36% overs at home. 0.78 conceded on average and that's over a season so is a strong stat.  3 overs in last 4 down to Giannina conceding and scoring in last 5.  Have only kept 7 clean sheets all season. Have conceded in all matches against the top 5 home and away. 

STREAKS - have scored in last 7 and conceded in last 5. No defeat in 7. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Oly - title won it would seem so a serious case of dead rubberyness.

RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWWLWWDLWWWW - Oly have conceded only 1 in last 7 away matches. Have beaten 8th and 10th 0-2 and 0-4. 

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWWWWWWL - last loss a 0-1 when Oly still were not guaranteed league winners. You would suspect that it would be another 0-1 if Oly were to lose today? 8 clean sheets in last 10 matches. 

GOAL TRENDS - 46% overs away from home. Oly have only failed to score in 4 this season. 15 clean sheets in last 18.

STREAKS - 4 match winning streak away. No draw in 12 overall. No goal conceded in 4 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - a dead rubber if my info is correct could see Oly take the foot off the gas. A dangerous game to trust the odds on favs today, with the home team coincidentally putting together a great unbeaten end of season rally.
A " I'll - get-me-coat" match for me. Unders would be a call but the general rule is that teams that don't need to win rarely do. 

5pm - PAOK v Doxa Dramas - 1.2 home
HEAD TO HEADS
18.12.2011D1Doxa Dramas0-2PAOK Salonica

Comfortable enough away win with 2 first half goals and Doxa unable to score again.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v bottom. PAOK can realistically go 3rd by the end of the season. However Doxa are relegated and cannot change that.
Given the circumstances I am not going to do the traditional research. We may see a contrarian performance from the away side, given they have no pressure at all but they haven't scored in 11 away against top 12 and failed to score in 6 of the last 7. 
PAOK have lost 3 of their last 4 at home but these were top 9 teams. Clean sheets in 4 of 5 matches at home to top 6. Last 4 wins have come away.
You would think it is PAOK who must end a 4 match home losing streak, and by doing so, give themselves a chance to finish 3rd, with whatever Champions League/Europa connotations that might bring.
Quite obviously a team in need v a team resigned. Logic dictates a home win to nil, but logic and this part of the season can be unhappy bed fellows.


745pm - Chelsea v Barcelona - 1.75 away - Chelsea I believe are unbeaten in last 5 against Barca? It suggests a lay of the Catalans or perhaps a backing of the score draw. Quite clearly Chelsea are resurgent against Di Matteo but is it a little too late against a Barca side with 15 wins in last 16, and Messi on 14 goals in this competition?

06.05.2009CLChelsea FC1-1FC Barcelona
28.04.2009CLFC Barcelona0-0Chelsea FC
31.10.2006CLFC Barcelona2-2Chelsea FC
18.10.2006CLChelsea FC1-0FC Barcelona
07.03.2006CLFC Barcelona1-1Chelsea FC
22.02.2006CLChelsea FC1-2FC Barcelona


One thing that has pervaded these meetings is the number of yellow cards so perhaps that's an angle in ( albeit not traditional trading of course) And as I say, unbeaten in last 5 for Chelsea.
Permutations - CHELSEA - as the home team, a clean sheet is the first step. A goal of course to follow would be a bonus, but 0-0 will put Chelsea in a good position going into the 2nd leg.
BARCA - a score draw or away goal win is perfect for Barca.
As we know, Chelsea at home are very much a 0-0 for a long period then things tend to happen 2nd half.
7 wins and a 0-0 draw in last 8 Barca away. Importantly, AC Milan kept Barca to a 0-0 in the CL latest, and this , as I say, a positive option for Chelsea.
Chelsea 2-1 v Benfica latest CL at home, saw 8 yellows and a red, and this could be a neutral angle in.
A toughie for me which is likely to be a late late show. Speculators might try 0-0 back to lay trade  for as long as you dare. An unders option today perhaps with the unique aspect of a first leg match.

1130pm - Boca Juniors v Zamora - 1.18 home

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