Thursday 12 April 2012

12/4

9pm - Sevilla v Zaragoza - 1.48 home
HEAD TO HEADS
27.11.2011D1Real Zaragoza0-1Sevilla FC
03.04.2011D1Sevilla FC3-1Real Zaragoza
14.11.2010D1Real Zaragoza1-2Sevilla FC
07.02.2010D1Real Zaragoza2-1Sevilla FC
12.09.2009D1Sevilla FC4-1Real Zaragoza
23.02.2008D1Sevilla FC5-0Real Zaragoza

Sevilla have won 5 of last 6 head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 19th. A win for Zaragoza takes them out of the bottom 3. 

HOME TEAM - -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Sevilla

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWDLLWLDLWDLW - -defeats against 1st, 2nd, 7th, 16th and 17th. At home to bottom 6, all matches have been over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored.Recent home defeats v Barcelona, Villareal, and Real Madrid.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLWWDLLWWWL - only one draw in last 12 matches. 3 recent wins against 15th, 16th and 20th saw Sevilla score 3 goals in each match. 

GOAL TRENDS - 60% overs at home.  Only 4 of the last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals ( 3 in last 4 though).Only 4 clean sheets in last 17 matches. Oppenent leads at half time in only 20% of home matches.

STREAKS - 2 at home without a draw, 6 overall. 

AWAY TEAM - past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team - Zaragoza

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDLLLLLLDLWLLWW - a sudden arrival of wins away coincides with a need for points. 2 wins in last 4 matches and consider only 3 wins away, includes a 1-2 away win v Valencia (3rd).Generally against top 9, though, defeats to 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th, win against 3rd, 0-0 v 5th. 

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLWLDWWWL - wins when they count! REcent wins v 3rd, 9th and 18th must make Zaragoza confident of getting something v a team, 9th, who have lost at home to 16th and 17th? If we consider Zaragoza have only won 7 all season, recent results look all the more impressive.

GOAL TRENDS - 69% overs away from home, down largely to conceding 2.06 on average. 6 of the last 8 matches overs. Only 3 clean sheets in last 24 matches. 

STREAKS - 2 match away winning streak, both 1-2 scorelines. No draw in 6 away. Have conceded in last 4 away. 

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - It seems to me that Zaragoza have been unfairly dismissed by the betting market given their 3 wins in last 4 includes the scalp of 3rd placed Valencia. If you fancy Sevilla, then perhaps an insurance bet on 1-2 Zara win? If you want a neutral bet, then the recent performances and goal trends point to over 2.5 goals ( or more for the speculator).
Please note, in Zaragoza we have a team desperate for points, and dare I remind you Man Utd were shorter last night? Sevilla are short enough for a lay I suppose given Zara's recent exploits? Both teams could score too, although last match was only a 0-1. 
It's a toughie to call given Zara's need for points.

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