Friday, 2 July 2010

3/7

What a frustration, 3 shortlisters and 2 winners and the one chosen loses. It was all down to the 2nd set which Djokovic lost 10 -9 after a perfectly good point being scratched off at 6-5 down which could have nailed the set as he was on serve.
On such fine margins....
I need to stick with football and horse racing from hereonin as tennis has produced too many losing bets, and as shown yesterday, Kissing Clara placed and the Netherlands lost at half time.


3pm - Argentina v Germany - is there any betting angle here? I'll list my markets of interest below.
Argentina Total Goals 3 goals or more - lay at odds of 6
Argentina v Germany -Argentina win from behind - 1.1
Argentina win to nil - no - 1.26
First Goal Odds 0-10 minutes - LAY at 6.2
Germany win both halves - no - 1.09
under 4.5 goals - 1.15
Total Goals - lay 5 goals or more at around 7.65

5pm - Rosenborg v Sandefjord - 1.18 home side - this is already the start of the Norwegian Tippaleagen
1st v bottom, although, of course, a bottom side so early in the season could have just got off to a bad start and not be the worst team in the league.
Rosenborg have not lost their matches since 10th March 2010 ( the first date for results at www.leagueday.com)
They have won 4 and drawn 2 at home.
Rosenborg has won their last 3
Sandefjord have lost all away matches since 10th March 2010.
They have drawn 2 of their last 3 matches , but those 2 matches were at home.

I don't know how the Norwegian league works , whether it has been on the go since March 10th 2010 or not but from what I can see at www.leagueday.com Rosenborg win or draw at home and Sandefjord lose away, ergo home win.

Head to heads 2009 home win 4-0 and away draw 2-2.
This match is in running and , as ever, I would consider the option of trading out if Rosenborg lead at any stage.
730pm - Paraguay v Spain - 1.49 Spain - logic tells us this should be Spain's for the taking. I will consider the following
DRAW NO BET - Spain 1.15
HALF TIME - Paraguay lay 9.8 (1.1 bet)
MATCH ODDS - lay Paraguay 10.5 ( 1.11 bet)
Paraguay win a half - 1.26
Spain Total Goals 1 or more -1.18
To Qualify - Spain -1.21

215 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Berling, 4/1 Bowdler´s Magic, 7/1 Anhar, 15/2 Mecox Bay, 9/1 Tipperary Boutique, 14/1 Nurture, 33/1 Kingdom Of Munster.

DIOMED VERDICT: BERLING (nap) stands out on all known evidence, having caught the eye in a major way at Ascot, where he would have gone close to winning had things panned out better.

Berling does look standout and , at 4/7, is all red and fancied. 2 places though
Interesting analysis of last race
"The unlucky horse of the race, however, was definitely Berling, who was held up amongst horses in a steadily run race and never saw any daylight when he needed it rounding the home turn. He had to be switched extremely wide and took off when in the clear, but he faced a hopeless task. Although he was off a 9lb higher mark here, he deserves compensation for this, although it´s worth bearing in mind that he did show a quirky side despite winning at Newbury last month."

Only beaten 2 3/4 lengths and a nose and head so a close 5th places

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