12/7

I sincerely hope that you followed me with Master of Hounds as yet another jumps race and yet another McCoy ridden horse fails to complete - this time pulled up. I was more than happy to take Master of Hounds knowing that over a year the average odds will be around 1.15/1.16.
Last year, infact, there were many 1.06 bets which were just extremely strong but did not impact on the targeted average.
The World Cup bets were excellent in the shortlist of the shortlist .

FOOTBALL
545pm - Werder Bremen v Uerdingen - 1.09 - this is in running and the goal machines of the Bundesliga ( they seem to be sponsored by over 2.5 goal backers) -Werder Bremen - take on Uerdingen in this friendly. Motivation always a factor here -if we take the odds as indicative of the gulf in class, then we can enhance match odds with a halftime/fulltime Werder/Werder or over 2.5 goals at around 1.2
Traders could , I suppose, go as high as over 3.5 goals ( illiquid market at present) and trade. 1.09 signals a comfortable 3-0, 4-0 home win. Perhaps Werder may be mindful of the embarassment factor too in this friendly and not go all out.
1.09 for the straight win is fine by me for the one a day . I am not sure if Werder had any personnel at the World Cup

The old betting site at the racing post has ceased now which makes life a whole lot easier for me (NOT!) I will , from now on, be doing my analysis in meeting order rather than time order.

AYR

400

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Don´t Call Me, 11/4 Mejd, 11/2 Amenable, 6/1 Layla´s Dancer, 12/1 Staff Sergeant, 12/1 Starry Mount, 14/1 Lord Raglan, 20/1 Master Of Dance.

DON´T CALL ME (nap), in form and proven on different ground surfaces, makes plenty of appeal. Mejd is also respected though he´d be an unknown quantity if the ground eases.[Simon Stanley]

An interesting race in that there are only 4 horses under 14/1 here with Mejd having leapfrogged into favouratism into 9/4. Only 8 runners means 3 places here and a probability race of sorts if we assume that this will involve the 4 horses under 14/1

500 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Valantino Oyster, 100/30 Grams And Ounces, 5/1 Music Festival, 10/1 Miereveld, 14/1 Electric City, 33/1 Woodhouse Mill.

VALANTINO OYSTER is very hard to oppose in this company. Grams And Ounces may be next best, though it is too soon to give up on Miereveld on his turf debut.[Simon Stanley]

'very hard to oppose in this company@ - well why the apparent drift to 11/8. The main mover is Grams and ounces into 2/1 in a race which should involve the 4 under 16/1 for the 2 places

310 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Air Chief Marshal, 2/1 One Set, 10/1 Nice Dream, 16/1 Lily´s Star.

AIR CHIEF MARSHAL stands out on his best form and even though he has run moderately in three starts this term he must surely take this in receipt of seven pounds from his only danger One Set.

Looks a great probability bet with another Ballydoyle hot pot in Air Chief seeming to face one rival of any worth in One set in a race for 2 places among 4 runners.
Spotlight highlights some niggles " first try on polytrack and won´t get a better opportunity (well treated by race conditions) this year but hardly looks one to take prohibitive odds about." and , for One set "sure to run his usual game race and will be the one to take advantage if Air Chief Marshal doesn´t perform."

The value would seem to lie in backing One Set to place here if we assume this is a race dominated by the front 2?

440 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Seven Summits, 9/2 Minsky Mine, 5/1 Tillahow, 11/2 Shalamzara, 13/2 Total Reality, 9/1 Celtic Pageant, 10/1 Imprudent Miss, 25/1 Ajloun, 33/1 Ceili Lady.

SEVEN SUMMITS looks the one to beat on the basis of his narrow defeat by Alaia at Tipperary where Shalamzara finished fourth. Major threats look to be Minsky Mine and Tillahow. [Alan Hewison]

Looks a standard Ballydoyle maiden improver, a close 2nd last time out and set to improve one again ( Seven Summits) - neck 2nd to Alaia of John Oxx's and I do keep saying that a neck 2nd is as near as damn it a winner.

510 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Aladdins Cave, 9/2 Strandfield Lady, 8/1 High Treason, 10/1 Hawk Dance, 10/1 Luigina Immacolata, 10/1 Prospectorous, 12/1 Accompanist, 14/1 Luckiest Owners, 14/1 Son Of My Heart, 16/1 Matters At Hand, 16/1 Sheridaniya, 25/1 Akram, 25/1 Hawk Flight, 33/1 Aitchiface.

ALADDINS CAVE is a handicapper on the move and a confident selection to complete the hat-trick after an easy win at Leopardstown last Thursday. Clearly well suited by quick ground the 6yo has shown his ability to handle this surface and can account for the consistent Strandfield Lady and Accompanist. [Alan Hewison]

Aladdins Cave looks to be a serious price gapper in the main Racing Post website ( although I personally prefer the betting site which is now defunct - so I will have to place faith in this new source)
6/4 - - - - -7/1 is the price gap and the horse is carrting a mandatory penalty but is " a confident selection" and "despite big weight hard to oppose here under just mandatory 5lb penalty."
And the clincher may be the sight of Pat Smullen on board , for he is one of the top flat jockeys in Ireland.

FFOS LAS

220

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Pin Cushion, 11/4 Admirable Duchess, 9/2 Mount Acclaim, 14/1 Thoughtful, 25/1 Croeso Mawr.

The 79-rated PIN CUSHION sets a clear standard and should be too good for Admirable Duchess, who has 11lb to find on official figures and whose form this season is at the minimum trip. Mount Acclaim is a potential improver, though does need to step up plenty on her debut form.[Steven Boow]

Now 4/9 in places this Pin cushion augurs well - only 2 places and a 6 furlong maiden but looks primed to be competitive today under Martin dwyer.