25/7

How Aston Villa lost against a team who played the day before I do not know, suffice to say that the word friendly springs to mind. July has not got off the ground at all and it is poor selection from me. Dinamo Zagreb were in the normal price band I use and won 4-1 and why I did not pick them I don't know.

I was expecting more this Sunday but there are 2 obvious place only bets at 2 very obvious prices regrettably. All 3 horses ( 2 in the 5pm race) have great probabilities of placing
Earl Wild - only 4 under 33/1 and 3 places - 2 debutants are 2nd and 3rd favourites and could be spoilers ( like Cape Blanco yesterday) - these debutants have not come in for support so perhaps speculate on a win only bet for Earl Wild
5pm Pontefract - 7 runner race - 2 horses are 66/1 and 200/1 and 3 places to be played for for the remaining 5.

Both races are maidens so always some danger. The price differences are negligible

*****ONE A DAY 150 CARLISLE - EARL WILD TO PLACE ONLY - should return 6% and be the start of a week of profitable bets hopefully - poor price ( like MAster of Hounds recently) but I am happy to bet him - has a great probability of success if this race is dominated by the 4 under 33/1 as the market shows*****

Watch out for Man Utd later on - check their website for team news in a match I cannot see them losing - I think I will venture in with a lay of Kansas later on with trading in mind.

HORSE RACING

150 Carlisle

BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Earl Wild, 5/1 Riverdale, 12/1 Lexi´s Boy, 14/1 Kinlochrannoch, 25/1 Littlepromisedland, Willow´s Wish, 50/1 Holy Arrangement, 66/1 Tom Bowler,
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DIOMED VERDICT: An uncompetitive looking maiden in which it is hard to get away from EARL WILD who stands out on form and is overdue a change of luck. Riverdale is the most interesting of the newcomers.



1/4 the fav and obvious place material with 2 2nds under the belt 1.29 for the win and 1.06 for the place



One of only 4 under 33/1 here so probabilities are with him



500 PONTEFRACT

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Entitled, 5/4 Autumn Riches, 10/1 Isobar, 14/1 Wolf Rock, 25/1 Chief Storm Eagle, Roydmore, 150/1 Princeofthedesert, 200/1 Bluebaru,
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DIOMED VERDICT: ENTITLED, a sister to top miler Peeress, is just preferred to Autumn Riches in what looks a match on paper.


This looks a 2 horse race as Entitled and Autumn riches take up 100% of the book - 7 horses left and these 2 are the only 2 under 14/1. Further 2 horses are 66/1 and 200/1 meaning this should involve 5 for 3 places.

A maiden race but there are no debutants - the probabilities I have underlined are both apparent in the place only price of 1.08 for both horses to place



FOOTBALL

11pm v-Kansas City v Man Utd - 1.35 away - Dorothy might be playing for Kansas City tonight. Man Utd needed a 70th+ minute goal from Obertans to win their last American fixture so this hints at changes in personnel by Sir Alex.

It's so far away I don't want to put it forward as I want team news and trading - I personally would be happy laying Kansas at 11.5 for a simple uncomplicated bet ( which I should have opted for yesterday)

SHORTLIST

All of the above can appear in the shortlist and the shortlist of the shortlist. Both races feature good prbabilities but this is clearly reflected in the place market.

Man Utd are likely to be unspectacular and probably end up winning. A cover of 0-0 would be my option here incase the game is tight, and a back of Man Utd in the match odds too.