Anderlecht should start their home campaign off with a win against newly promoted side - 1st game of the season so hope there are no surprises - the game is in running which adds to my confidence
The horse racing looks strong today with Sennokian Storm being very well backed already in a good probability race.
ballydoyle's Enchanted Forest looks equally as strong.
*****ONE A DAY - 250 THIRSK - SENNOKIAN STORM TO PLACE ONLY - 1.18 available*****
I should have erred on the side of caution yesterday with the 1.06 shot and just moved on. Duncan was badly hampered 1 furlong out and that scuppered all chances of at least a place as he managed 2 lengths 4th. A real pity.
The galling thing is that the football continues strongly .
FOOTBALL
3pm - Dundee v Montrose 1.22 - Scottish League Cup games for all the Scots teams mentioned today so the prices reflect higher league teams v lower league teams in the traditional fashion for early Cup rounds. Division 1 v Division 3 - Montrose away are very poor. Head to head back in 2008 was 3-0 to Dundee .£27K waiting to back Dundee on Betfair. NOT IN RUNNING so a simple matter of backing and hoping.
3pm - Dunfermline v Arbroath - 1.38 - head to heads in the cup are a little too close for me to be betting without trading. Expect a 1-0, 2-1 if head to heads are anything to go by.
3pm - Inverness CT v Queens Park - 1.2 - Division 1 v Division 3 and Caley are in good recent home form
3pm - Norwich v Everton - 1.81 away - Everton have won all of their friendlies , hence I give them a cautious mention here against a Norwich team they last met in the Premiershp and did the double over. IN RUNNING and may chance Everton to score or lead first.
4pm - Sevastopol v Dinamo Kiev - 1.3 away - early season but home team would seem to be newcomers to the top flight given there are no head to heads.
430pm - Debrecen v Lombard Papa - 1.35 - 5-1 , 4-1, 2-0 head to heads in 2010/2009 all in favour of the home team in what looks to be the beginning of the season so we would really have to rely on history here rather than recent good collateral form.
7pm - Anderlecht v Eupen - 1.21 home - Juliper league begins with Belgian power houses facing newly promoted side. Anderlecht at home expected to stamp their class on this opener, but remember what I have written about openers in the past! May be a shock ( remember Burnley at home last season) IN RUNNING - +1.5 to +2.5 in the asian handicaps signals worse case 1-0, 2-0 or one or 2 goal win to Anderlecht, and best case - optimum performance would be a 3-0 or 3 goal or more home win.
Any unquoted is the shortest priced correct score so expectation there is for Anderlecht to score 4 or more.
8pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Rijeka - 1.34 - 2-2, 6-0, 4-0 head tpo heads - the 2-2 was in 2010 so signals that Zagreb can score
and as this is in running, given they scored 10 in their home head to heads ( 2 games) , perhaps back Zagreb with only trading in mind.
HORSE RACING
220 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Face The Problem, 9/2 Melodize, 11/2 Star Today, 13/2 First Class Favour, Orchid Street, 14/1 Master Macho, 16/1 Jamaica Grande, Johnny Hancocks.
DIOMED VERDICT: The progressive FACE THE PROBLEM is held in plenty of regard and can defy a 7lb rise for last weekend's success at York. Melodize may prove best of the remainder. |
Fav a price gapper and now odds on in this nursery
240 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Midnight Rider, 4/1 Fabiello, 5/1 History Repeating, Indigo Way, 10/1 Abjer, 14/1 Pintrada, 16/1 Masonic Lady,
DIOMED VERDICT: INDIGO WAY's debut form worked out tremendously well and he is taken to get the better of fair yardstick Midnight Rider. |
Price gapper in a now 7 runner field for 3 places - 4 horses only under 12/1
250 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sennockian Storm, 9/4 Hamloola, 3/1 Nimue, 5/1 Broadway Dancer, 20/1 Shethoughtshewas, 33/1 Tasza, 50/1 Destiny Rules, Rukhsana, 100/1 Only You Maggie.
DIOMED VERDICT: SENNOCKIAN STORM gets the vote on the strength of last week's Ascot effort. |
2nd fav a non runner makes this very interesting - only 4 horses under 16/1 here and original fav has nearest rival not running making him the obvious place only chance.
415 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Pausanias, 11/4 Captain Bertie, 9/2 The Mongoose, 7/1 Aerial Acclaim, 14/1 Sinadinou, 25/1 Fine Art Dealer, Sagramor, 33/1 Hurricane Spear, 50/1 Hawridge Knight.
DIOMED VERDICT: Richard Hannon has made no secret of the high opinion he has of Pausanias and the stable's 2yos can do very little wrong but inexperience is always a concern with a newcomer and there may be value in taking him on with CAPTAIN BERTIE following his very promising debut in a similar race recently. |
Very interesting in that there are 5 horses only under 25/1 here , but the majority are debutants. You would have to have faith in the betting market and connections' views of their horses and , as Diomed mentions,. there's no better starting point than Richard Hannon's Pausanias
Highly risky race though given the number of debutants.
430 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Enchanted Forest, 11/4 Hasty Katie, 13/2 Honey Of A Kitten, 10/1 Harrison´s Cave, In Good Voice, Ploopluck Bridge, 25/1 Bleuker, Rio Silver, 50/1 Lilly The Lion.
Ballydoyle fav has 2 seconds and is no odds on with Johnny Murtagh in the saddle - they will very rarely go too long without winning
435 NEWMARKET
DIOMED VERDICT: The lightly raced Harald Bluetooth still has plenty of potential and it would be significant if the market marks the right noises on his return from a 556-day absence but VESUVE sets a smart standard and should take plenty of beating. |
Pure probability race and the obvious starting point is the 3 horses below 40/1 - 2 will place and Vesuve is obvious of course.
625 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Timothy T, 7/2 Fly By White, 8/1 Endaxi Mana Mou, 10/1 Educated Son, 12/1 Gamesmanship, 16/1 Miss Nimbus, 20/1 Wanchai Minx, 25/1 Captain Sharpe, Robber Stone, 28/1 Bernie´s Tune, 33/1 Dances With Words.
DIOMED VERDICT: A good opportunity for TIMOTHY T (nap). |
Only 2 under 10/1 and those have only had one run.
840 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Jemima Nicholas, 2/1 Henry Morgan, 11/2 Red Roar, 15/2 Kristen Jane, 20/1 Our Angel, 25/1 Billionaire Boy, J´Amour Dance, 33/1 Mark Carmers.
DIOMED VERDICT: JEMIMA NICHOLAS has gone close in both her starts and has solid claims for a yard which is 6-13 here in recent years |
8 runner maiden race and only 4 are under 20/1 - Jemima has 2 2nds, is odds on and has a great probability of placing in the first 3.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Dundee v Montrose 1.22 - Cup game - should be a gulf in class - head to heads, albeit not recent, comprehensively in favour of Dundee - NOT IN RUNNING
3pm - Inverness CT v Queens Park - 1.2 - gulf in leagues again and the home side are in good home form. - NOT IN RUNNING
7pm - Anderlecht v Eupen - 1.21 home - I would hope for a rude awakening for these newcomers as the Belgian giants are their first opponents in the Juliper League - IN RUNNING - first game of the season so you never know and will have to trust home form and rep of the home side against a team they have no history with.
250 THIRSK - only 4 under 20/1 - 2nd fav a none runner - Sennokian Storm all red, 5/4 and backed - Johnston horse . Nimue and Broadway dancer are the 2 who I think should be involved at the business end along with Sennokian Storm. Nimue especially is of interest but he has either the experience of recent runs, or you can look at it as him being rather exposed.
1.18 to place for Sennokian Storm and 1.29 for Nimue in a race which should be dominated by these 2. It is a maiden race though and 4 opponents are one time outers and theorectically open to improvement and one is a debutant but the market is not speaking for them.
430 GALWAY - Enchanted Forest should make the placings again this time after 2 second places, both of which were eyecatching. Ballydoyle horse has top jockey on board.
1.15 to place albeit in an illiquid market.
435 NEWMARKET - this is one of those probability races where 3 horses should be vying for 2 places and Vesuve makes obvious appeal as the strong market leader
- "should take plenty of beating" and Ted Durcan rides for Godolphin. 2nd fav has 555 day absence - around 1.12 to place in a race where 3 are under 50/1, and Vesuve is odds on. Will he get beaten by 2 horses in an apparent 3 horse race?
840 HAMILTON - you know the drill by now with these evening races - we have to consult the market nearer the off with so long until race time. As things stand, this is becoming another superb place only race - 4 only under 20/1 and an odds on favourite in Jemima Nicholas
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
7pm - Anderlecht v Eupen - 1.21 home - in running so watch out for enhanced betting if opponents take the lead or lead at any stage. Opening match of the season so we need to be a little wary but this team lost one, drew 2 and won 11 at home last season. Won their first 2 home games last season,.
If they click, Anderlecht should win by 3 or 4. IN RUNNING so I am happy to entertain this match.
250 Thirsk - Sennokian Storm and Nimue are the 2 horses for me with the money coming for the former . Only 2 pieces of form and an improved 2nd last time out. The sight of Joe Fanning would have cemented this but as things stand, looks a good probability to place. - 4 horses under 20/1 and 11/10 now - still shortening.
430 GALWAY - Enchanted Forest should place here for the powerful Ballydoyle
840 HAMILTON - looks an excellent race to return to
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