Woodlark Island won, and I was disciplined to avoid heavy despite my interest in Cousin Vinny's race.
Yet again, Jimbatai's price shortened considerably BEFORE THE RACE WAS EVEN RUN and another successful trade. THe 415 Plumpton saw a 3 horse race with a clear outsider and it went the way I hoped with King edmund and I have dreamed filling the first 2 places
530pm - CSKA v Inter - 530pm. - the fact Inter are only 2.34 gives ample respect to CSKA. 1-0 Inter Win in the home match was ideal because all they need now is an away goal and it's job done.
I would head towards fewer goals in this match - under 4.5 goals at 1.08. I suspect Inter will be on a smash and grab raid here. How about laying CSKA /CSKA half time/full time at around 7.2 - that's a 1.16 bet which is quite reasonable. The bet could be realised by half time if the match is a draw or an Inter half time lead.
6pm- IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens - 1.44 - only 3 matches into the new season and I was a little reserved with Rosenborg yesterday in a similar position and they came good. Of course the odds favour heavily the home side. Djurgardens have lost 2 and drawn 1 in their 3 season games. Goteborg have won 1, lost 2
Inconclusive at present.
745pm - Barcelona v Arsenal -1.36 - the bookmakers have decided that the loss of Fabregas and Gallas is the nail in the coffin for the Arse.
No Ibra tonight I'm led to believe and this ,after he came back to some semblance of form. BUT, what about Jeffren, Pedro, Bojan. These 3 are class acts.
Arsenal's chances are reflected in the halftime/fulltime price of 18.5 ( contrast with 6.2 of the 1st leg)
Barca are 1.13 to qualify which, considering they have 2 away goals ,looks very good ( they were 1.41 before the 1st leg)
It looks like Xavi and Iniesta will be together again - these 2 together are LETHAL. Barca look to have all of the advantages here and we're in for another excellent evening's viewings.
745pm - Livingston v Montrose - 1.27 - home team have won 11, drawn 1 and lost 1. Have a distinct advantage in head to heads -3-0 and 2-0 wins in last 2 matches.
Away side are coming off the back of 3 wins in their last 5 away games! BUT the ratings tell all. Livingston are rated 2034 on www.betdevil.com and Montrose are 643.
Montrose wins have come against 524, 1215 , 909 rated teams. Montrose have also recently beaten Forfar 4-0 at home.
Montrose to me look like a team you can perform suddenly - inconsistent is a good way to describe them.
230am - Universitario v Blooming - 1.25 - copa libertadores and home teams generally perform when priced to do so.
From the Fifa site
Universitario have what is, on paper, an altogether easier task at home to Bolivian strugglers Blooming in Group 4. Victory for the Peruvians, who lie second with eight points, will guarantee them a top-two placing, taking them out of reach of third-placed Lanus. Currently third on seven points, the Argentinians will then have to beat Universitario in their final game and hope that current leaders Libertad are defeated by Blooming to have any possibility of advancing as one of the six best second-placed teams.
1.21 over 1.5 goals and it's in running.
HORSE RACING
215 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Woodlark Island, 5/1 Troodos Jet, 10/1 Sharadiyn, 12/1 Mister Fizzbomb, Naughty Diesel, 14/1 Gross Prophet, 16/1 Ballysimon, 20/1 Knight Valliant, Transporter, 66/1 Ballyboe Boy, Bombie Boy, Little Lily Morgan.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Woodlark Island is the standout contender but TROODOS JET looks a fairly solid each-way alternative having been in such good form over fences. |
Hello? He's back quickly after winning yesterday. Jockey change to Hadden Frost to take off 3lbs. Price gapper again and odds on at present, can Woodlark Island do it again -OR at least place only?
THis is a conditional jockey's event and has extra weight today. Ballysimon another all red candidate.
220 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lady Brookie, 11/4 Beach Patrol, 7/1 Dingle View, 8/1 Scarlet Rocks, 10/1 Babich Bay, 14/1 Bathwick Bear, Ivan´s A Star, Rosina Grey, 25/1 Belle Bayardo, Snapshott.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The Brocklesby runner-up LADY BROOKIE impressed with the speed she showed and the way she stuck to her task at Doncaster and can go one better at the expense of Beach Patrol. |
I was going to say that this is a meeting to watch out for AP McCoy but this looks to be a flat meeting at the Welsh venue. Only 5 under 20/1 but this is a 5 furlong maiden race with 6 debutants and 4 one time outers open to improvement.
240 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Welsh Artist, 5/2 Staff Sergeant, 11/4 Halyard, 8/1 Widow Bird, 14/1 Mark To Market, 20/1 Gyrate, Three White Socks, 33/1 Countrycraft, 100/1 Bravo Blue.
| DIOMED VERDICT: WELSH ARTIST has been threatening to win a race once upped to this trip and can get off the mark so long as he handles the surface. |
A lot of these maidens must handle the unique surface. Halyard is the one for money and Welsh Artist is now 7/4.
255 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bonheurs Art, 5/2 Music Festival, 8/1 Hedonist, Mirza, 12/1 British Sea Power, 14/1 Easy Terms, 20/1 Superior Edge, 50/1 Fayre Bella.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a suitable opportunity for BONHEURS ART to get off the mark. |
It's a tricky day with so many maiden races and our reliance really is only on the betting market. If so, then BOnheurs Art is now odds on in this 8 runner race, for 3 places only. Not run since October 2009, the connections, the Hills, must be respected.To make life easier, Music Festival is Dettori/Johnston and this new coupling could be devastating this flat season, until such time as Mr Dettori needs to top up his tan in Dubai.
310 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tiger Hawk, 11/8 Just Mandy, 10/1 Otterton, Whipper´s Delight, 16/1 Lord´s Seat, 66/1 Titanic Mill.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TIGER HAWK has a good record at this venue and can further enhance it in this lowly seller. |
2nd fav is a very significant non runner indeed. Originally one of only 2 under 10/1 in the betting forecast - Just Mandy and Tiger Hawk were priced to pretty much take up the betting book. Now Just Mandy is a non runner, surely Tiger Hawk has an outstanding opportunity to not only place, but also win.
And he is priced as such now - 4/11 - a course and distance winner -so important that a horse has experience at Southwell. Frank Spencer on board, and the cynic in me tells me this is a race rife for a fix. It is, after all, a class 6 seller. 4 horses and 2 places. A bent jockey could conjure up a 3rd place for a seemingly nailed on horse -the excuse - c'mon it was a seller after all!!
345 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Ibn Hiyyan, 13/2 Rosewood Lad, 8/1 Blinka Me, 10/1 Bollin Andrew, Second Brook, 16/1 Hotgrove Boy, 20/1 Swindlers Lass, 33/1 Micky´s Bird, Red Valerian Two.
| DIOMED VERDICT: IBN HIYYAN is very difficult to oppose in a very weak race. |
You will remember the name Ibn Hiyyan from my mention of this horse in his last run, when he finished 2nd to Sir Pitt over course and distance. Royston Ffrench is onboard ( where is Fanning/Fairley? - Fanning is at Ffos Las) and a great price gapper. This looks a superb opportunity for Ibn Hiyyan to win , and hence place.
420 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Colorus, 4/1 Tamarind Hill, 5/1 Best One, 16/1 Monsieur Harvey, 25/1 Remark, 33/1 Mr Rooney.
| DIOMED VERDICT: COLORUS has more to recommend him than his rivals and ought to be able to gain a fifth C&D success. |
Price gapper here but only 2 places means we have to be spot on.
425 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Love Of Tara, 15/8 Bocamix, 7/2 Saveiro, 10/1 Fridaythorpe, 33/1 Benefits Bill, 50/1 Birnies Boy, 100/1 Archie´s Wish, Coverdale Girl, Earl Grez, One More Cent, Rushing Nature, Secret Desert.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Forget her Cheltenham failure and LOVE OF TARA (nap) had previously posted a career-best effort off a mark of 125 at Kempton, which is a level of form most of these can merely dream about. |
Look at the betting forecast - only 4 horses under 33/1 -looks a 4 horse race surely ( with a clear round assumed for all)
There are only 3 horses under 10/1 here and these should be the ones at the business end surely? Do note what Diomed said about Love of Tara. I do like the jockey, young Twiston-Davies. The last race was a class 2 at the Cheltenham Festival - this is a class 4.
440 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dun Doire, 3/1 Ballistraw, 100/30 Hi Cloy, 9/2 Afistfullofdollars, 12/1 Beantown, 33/1 Ground Ivy, Private Developer, Teri D Trixter, 50/1 Horse Shoe Lane.
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