FOOTBALL
1230pm St Gallen v Lausanne - 1.35 -I cannot see why St Gallen are 1.35 here in this Swiss league match, so no bet
5pm - Rosenborg v Stromsgodset - 1.35 - it looks as if the season started on 14th March 2010.1-2 away win. 2-2 home drawn and 0-0 away draw. Rosenborg have hardly got going but remain unbeaten
Away side have won 2 at home and drawn 1 away - it really is too early in the season to come to any real conclusion. The market thinks Rosenborg will win. If I remember rightly, Rosenborg were unbeaten at home last season - is this the reason behind the short price?
530pm - Litex Lovech v Minyor Pernek - 1.26 - 9 wins and 1 loss at home for Litex, but at 1.17 a couple of matches ago only won 1-0! 1-0 wins in head to heads suggests another tight affair and I cannot bet them with confidence.
745pm - Newcastle United v Sheffield United - 1.45 - 4 points ahead and a game in hand for the Toon. Unbeaten in their last 10. UNBEATEN at home this season. Have won their last 7 games at home, and they have scored 2,3,6,3,4,5,2 at home (latest first)
Head to heads 1-0 v Sheff United
Bar the 3-0 home win against Blackpool, all other matches recently have been tight e.g. 0-0 , 0-1 , 1-1,1-1,1-1, 1-0 away loss, 1-0 away loss.
This hints at the Blades being tough to beat. BUT against the top 7 away, they have been breached far easier. HAve not won away since 5th December 2009.(10 away games)
Motivation is with the Geordies today. I don't know if they can wrap up automatic promotion with a win today?
Safest bet? Lay Sheff United?
9pm - Naval v Benfica - 1.4 -10th v top. 8 of their 11 home games have ended with a 1-0 or 0-0 scoreline.73% of their home games have been under 2.5 goals and 77% of their away games have been 77% under 2.5 goals -so this seems to be a general trait for Naval. They have not played Benfica or Braga at home but were beaten 3-1 at home by Porto (3rd) so this signals what 1st and 2nd could achieve at Naval.
Benfica have won 8 away, drawn 3 and lost one ( v Braga) -It's 50/50 with Benfica under 2.5 goals away.
So, are they going to mirror the 3-1 that Porto managed, or will this be a tight 1-0, 0-0 type of match?
Benfica have LOST ONLY ONE MATCH all season.
HORSE RACING
205 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lady Pilot, 9/4 Kanad, 6/1 Vincenzio, 12/1 Tide Slider, 16/1 Highway Magic, Louis Ludwig, 33/1 Colemanstown, Finnegans Rainbow.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Kanad and LADY PILOT are the two to concentrate on, with preference for the latter |
8 runners and 3 places.2 horses are 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 of whom will place.
A selling hurdle
220 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Cousin Vinny, 2/1 Head Of The Posse, 6/1 Arabella Boy, 9/1 Tramp Stamp, 12/1 Rubi Light.
I could not leave the Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle without mentioning my delicious irish strawberries . This is a 4 horse race now and 2 places. Cousin Vinny and Head of the posse could see another McCoy v Walsh ding dong battle. The front 2 seem a lot happier with heavy ground ( heavy today) and surely must dominate with my usual addendum - clear round of jumping!
240 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Start Royal, 9/4 Lisadell King, 11/2 Divine Intavention, 13/2 Gun Smith, 10/1 Star Double, 12/1 Art Trend, 25/1 Jimmys Duky.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Lisadell King has the best form of those with experience in hunter chases but he might find it difficult conceding 4lb to the promising START ROYAL. |
Mentioned as Start Royal is now odds on. A hunters chase and only 2 places so we really have to be spot on.
300 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Massini Sunset, 15/8 Star Galaxy, 11/4 Jimbatai, 13/2 Littleton Aldor.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A good opportunity for dual C&D winner MASSINI SUNSET, who has been running well of late, will find conditions ideal and is weighted to make a deserved return to the winner's enclosure. |
A race involving original fav and 3rd fav. 50/50 - are you feeling lucky? Heavy ground - it's all down to jumping and who handles the ground.
315 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Woodlark Island, 6/1 Little Firecracker, 12/1 E Major, Lady Sorcerer, Persian Gates, 14/1 Kassuta, Sir Punjabi, 33/1 Bridge Of Fermoy, Galley Slave, Lukey Luke, Patrixtoo.
| DIOMED VERDICT: WOODLARK ISLAND (nap) will be very difficult to beat |
I FECKING HOPE SO!! Huge price gapper here but an "all red" bet in Sir Punjabi, 2nd fav at 5/1
335 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Fabalu, 9/4 Mount Oscar, 9/2 Tarquinius, 17/2 The Ferbane Man, 66/1 Country Eclipse.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A peak-form Mount Oscar would have sound claims but he hasn't been operating at his best lately so preference has to be for FABALU, who ran well enough until his stamina seemed to ebb away in the 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham last time. Tarquinius is a non runner here -one clear outsider but heavy ground here and 3 miles 2. FAbulu is 1/2 in places here and represents Maguire/McCain 410 CHEPSTOW BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bella Haze, 5/2 Picaroon, 11/4 Raquel White, 13/2 Border Castle.
415 PLUMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 King Edmund, 11/8 I Have Dreamed, 12/1 She´s Humble, 33/1 Beware Chalk Pit.
She's humble a non runner - One really clear outsider at 25/1 leaves 2 realistically vying for 2 places 420 REDCAR BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Palawi, 5/2 Dandino, 4/1 Fluster, 8/1 Robbie Burnett, 10/1 Offspring, 16/1 Fantastic Favour, Kataragama, 25/1 Brockfield, 33/1 I Got Music, 66/1 Sir Mark.
Palawi now all red and 7/4 Not run since October 2009 555 Plumpton BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Oscar Papa, 7/2 Swing State, 9/2 General Villegas, 6/1 Current Climate, 13/2 Like Ice, 12/1 Thorpey´s Girl, 14/1 Rebelious, 25/1 Out To Impress.
The fav could place in this |
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