10/4

Football to start with today as I am up early

12pm - Kaiserslautern v Union Berlin - 1.43 - top v 12th in the German 2nd tier.
6 points in hand at the top so not a real must win ( i.e. no margin for error!)
Have only lost one and drawn 3 all season. Have won 4 and drawn 2 of their last 6 at home. Have scored 4 goals in 2 consecutive home games latest.
2-0 head to heads. Have been scoring 3 regularly during the season.
Union Berlin have not won away to any of the top 9 , drawing 3 and losing 4. Mid table mediocrity here puts the motivation factor clearly in Kaiser's favour.

1215pm - Celtic v Ross County - 1.2 - on all known form, this should be a simple game for the Bhoys, and I hope a change at the helm will rid them of complacency.
Scottish Cup and a one off game so no collateral form.

1pm - Dinamo Kiev v Arsenal Kiev - 1.28 - short price for a local derby -home team have won 10 and drawn 1 at home all season.Away side are f 2-5-4 (W-D-L) for their 11 away games this season.
Only 3 home games recently, 2 1-0 and 1 3-0. A loss and 2 draws for Arsenal Kiev in their 3 most recent away matches after the break.
Head to heads 1-0 and 2-1 to Dinamo in last 2 matches. Add the derby factor and this looks to be a tight old game I would say

2pm- Debrecen v Paks - 1.23 - Hungarian league - 9-0-1 (W-D-L) for their 10 home matches this season. 0-6-4 (W-D-L) for the away side's away form. Very contrasting fortunes.
Strong home form backs up this 1.23 price. HEad to heads and Debrecen have won the last 4. Have won their last 6 at home, scoring 2,3,2,2,5,1
Paksi have drawn 2 and won 1 of their last 3 away games (the win coming in the Cup ). Some degree of consistency but they have not played a team rated as high as Debrecen in any of those games.
I get the feeling for a 2-0 home win here. It is a scoreline that has appeared a lot in the head to heads, and the 1.23 price backs this up.

2pm - Shaktar v Dnipro - 1.43 - Perfect - 11-0-0 (W-D-L) home form for familiar Shaktar. 5-2-4 (W-D-L) for Dnipro's away form shows that they can be resistant.
Shaktar have won their last 9 league games ( interspersed with Europa league commitments)-6 wins at home on the trot.
This Ukrainian league seems to take a long break in the winter so there have only really been 3 recent games ( all home wins for Shaktar) with Dnipro drawing 1 and losing 1 away. Do note that at home though, they have won won 4 and drawn 1 - this is important from a confidence perspective for Dnipro. Head to heads -2 draws and a 1-0 Shaktar win show that this could be tight.

230pm - Werder Bremen v Freiburg - 1.34 - 71% of Werder's home games have finished over 2.5 goals - 60% of Freiburg's away games have finished over 2.5 goals.
One team scores - the other concedes .
Werder's last 11 home games have all been over 1.5 goals. Werder's last 6 home games have finished over 2.5 goals and they have scored 4,3,2,2,2,2.
Werder Bremen's home form can be split into 2. Against the top 9, their home form reads Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss, Draw
Now against teams 10th and lower, their home form reads win, win, win, win, win, draw, win .Freiburg are 16th ,happily ensconced in the bottom 3.

6-0 head to heads last match in Werder's favour ( remember they were away to Freiburg) signals a mauling this afternoon.
Apart from an anomolous 1-0 away win v 2nd placed Schalke, Freiburg have lost 6 of the 7 away matches against top 8 sides.
Last 3 games have seen 2 draws and a win for Freiburg ( home, away, home) - signs of a comeback until we realise the teams they were playing are 15th, 12th 10th

I would prefer the safer goals bet here but expect Werder Bremen to win.

3pm - Leeds v Southend - 1.39 - a win could see them 2nd ( albeit temporarily) - at this time of the season I like to include matches in the lower divisions because teams have the required motivation to perform as their odds indicate they will.
Leeds have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 games. Their bid for automatic promotion is looking very dodgy now after it looked so rosey before.
Recent home form has been 3-0 loss, 2-0 loss, 1-1 draw , 2-0 win, 1-1 draw, 2-1 loss
Simply note 3-0 and 2-0 good enough. Th3 3-0 and 2-0 losses came against 2nd and 3rd in the league so we need to put them into context.
Against teams 15th and lower ( Southend are 22nd of 24), Leeds have win,win,win,win,win,win,win,draw,win . Expectation is for the win against lower half sides
0-0 head to heads
Southend have lost their last 8 away conceding 3,4,3,2,3,2,2,2 . They have lost away to all of the top 12 sides they have played.
Of the bottom 3, it must be said that Southend have the better chance of getting out of the relegation places, but will need a win today.

I would opt for goals bet perhaps here to keep it neutral. If Southend score first, I can see Leeds replying, such is the motivation.

3pm - Millwall v Gillingham - 1.38 - a win takes them 2nd today (again temporarily based on other results) -Millwall have won 12 of their last 16, drawing 3 and losing 1. They HAVE MOMENTUM. They are unbeaten in 11 at home. Have lost only once at home, and that was a shock against Wycombe back in November 2009.
Head to heads - lost 2-0 away to Gillingham but that was in Sept 2009. Again, I reiterate that the momentum ( and with it confidence) is with Millwall.
Gillingham have not won away all season and against the top 12 sides they have played away, have lost all bar 1 2-2 draw. Lost 3-1 and 4-1 to 2nd and 4th placed away ( millwall are 3rd)


3pm - Stevenage v Forest Green - 1.25 - 7 game home winning streak ended by 2nd place Luton 1-0 last time. Forest Green are 21st. Again, Forest Green with a win have a chance of escaping the bottom 3 ( again dependent on results elsewhere)
4 game winning run for Forest Green ended with 2 losses 1-0 and 3-4. HAve beaten 3rd, 6th and 10th away

445pm - Sion v Aarau - 1.4 - a league of only 10 competitors can open things up for anomolous results due to over familiarity. This is 7th v 10th and a team who already beat their opponents 3-0 in the away fixture. Such a recent result must be a good indicator?Aarau have lost their last 6.

445pm - Young boys v Bellinzona - 1.16 - 1st v 9th , and yes, sub 1.2 odds indicates goals.Since the comeback from the break, Young Boys have won their last 5 at home and have scored 5,3,3,4 in their last 4 games. Bellinzona have lost their last 5 away since the break, and have lost 10 of their last 11 games. 25th March saw a 3-1 Young Boys away win

5pm - Aston Villa v Chelsea - 1.57 - a one off match and I doubt it will be a 7-1 drubbing this time, but the question remains - is there a discernible class gap between the top 3 and those vying for 4th spot?

5pm - Austria Karnten v Red Bull Saltsburg - 1.3 -in a league of only 10 , this is top v bottom -beat Karnten 1-0 at home when last played before their winter break. Red Bull have won 7 and drawn 2 since the break. They have won 3 and drawn 1 since the break. LAst away match was a 6-1 win v MAttersburg
Away side have lost 3, drawn 1 since the break 9that draw v 9th in the league) Have lost all bar a 1-0 home win v 7th and said draw ( lost 8 in total)
Of course, if Red Bull show the form of their last away match, this one will be done and dusted by half time?

545pm - Twente v Heerenveen - 1.3 - one of the triumvirate and runaway ( at time of writing) leaders of the Ersidivisie, Twente have only lost one match all season and that was v Ajax (2nd) -they have only dropped points against top 8 sides - Heerenveen are 11th.
2-0 away win for Twente at Heerenveen.
Twente have won all home games bar a 1-1 draw against title tusslers PSV.
Heerenveen have lost all matches they have played home and away against top 6 sides.Away they have lost 11 and won 4 ( 3 of those wins v bottom 7 sides)-Heerenveen's last 3 games have seen 5+ goals, so perhaps opting for a goals bet may include both sides?

645pm - NEC Nijmegen v AZ Alkmaar - 1.62 - unbeaten in their last 10, and a 6 game winning streak have seen AZ come from mid table mediocrity to threaten 4th place here - have won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 away games.
Head to heads 1-0 loss to NEC but that was in September 2009 - AZ are a different animal now, I would suggest.
Against top 6 sides, NEC have lost 4 and drawn 2 at home. Recent home form sees 2 losses and a draw and no goals scored by NEC in those 3 matches.Indeed, NEC have only scored 2 goals in their last 7 games. With this information, then, backing AZ looks a good option as the first goal is likely to be scored by the side on a 6 game winning streak ( who have quite obviously scored goals in all of those 6 matches)

9pm - Real Madrid v Barcelona - interestingly Barca have won the last 3 el classicos, but this match is impossible to predict!
Real have WON EVERY HOME MATCH.
Barca away to top 6 sides have drawn 2 and won one 1-0
You would suspect that with Messi, Ibra ( Barca's clear top scorers) and Higuan/Ronaldo( Real's 2 clear top scorers) we would expect a goal or 2, but that was the case last game and that finished 1-0.

HORSE RACING

130 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hucking Hero, 2/1 Quintessentially, 11/4 Tri Nations, 14/1 Esprit De Fer, 20/1 Dont Tell Baby, Onemoreandstay, Princess Rainbow, 66/1 Pembo, 100/1 Forty Knights.

DIOMED VERDICT: A race that won't take a great deal of winning and QUINTESSENTIALLY, provided he can put his best foot forward on the ground, should threaten in receipt of 7lb from the top two.

8 runners and 3 places
Only 3 under 12/1 here .
Onemoreandstay is a market mover into an each way 12/1. With 2 horses at 66/1 or bigger , this is a 6 runner race for 3 places, and I suspect the 4 to concentrate on will be the 3 under 12/1 and Onemoreandstay.

145 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Peddlers Cross, 3/1 Najaf, 7/1 Bygones Of Brid, 8/1 Vino Griego, 9/1 Duke Of Lucca, 14/1 Lucky William, 20/1 Sleepy Hollow, 40/1 Solway Sam, 100/1 J´Adhere.

DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to desert PEDDLERS CROSS. Najaf also had a hard race at Cheltenham and for those looking to oppose those Cheltenham horses the best options may be Bygones Of Brid and Vino Griego.

T