Wednesday 9 January 2008

9/1

Well did you trade out of the Chelsea v Everton under 2.5 goals? Plenty of opportunity to with the last goal coming in the 91st minute, and the first goal coming in the 25th minute. Despite over 2.5 goals this trade would have been successful if managed correctly

Bobatim unplaced - highly speculative double figure odds. Mickleberry placed for each way backers. Fleet street won at evens - a HUGE price for shortest priced betting forecast favourites of the day, and he won impressively

Wodhill Gold won.

Again Swansea let me down re over 2.5 goals - and laying any opponent of CHelsea at Stamford Bridge is simply a license to print money - 54 games unbeaten for Chelski at home!.

130 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Is It Time, 5/1 Commander Wish, 11/2 Fastrac Boy, Taboor, 6/1 Rosie Cross, 13/2 Sir Loin, 8/1 Wibbadune, 9/1 Minnow, 10/1 Ashes .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks wide-open and Is It Time is worth another chance at this trip with stronger handling here. Perhaps things will again fall right for ROSIE CROSS, who has very respectable form here in this context and is on a fair mark.[EMW]

This looks " wide open" - Rosie Cross and Fasttrac Boy each way for me.

1250 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Atephobia, Maybe I Wont, 7/2 Lord Deevert, 20/1 Tilly Ann ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's little between the big three on BHA ratings and this isn't a race to waste too much time on, with MAYBE I WONT given the nod.[GW]

A 3 horse race now with the front 2 at 5/4 and 6/4 allowing for a dutch ,albeit for a measely return. 5/4 is 44.44%, and 6/4 is 40% - easier of course to lay Lord Deevert

150 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Denbera Dancer, 4/1 North South Divide, 5/1 Mini Mosa, 6/1 Granary, Saviour Sand, 8/1 Old Etonian, 50/1 Irish Cape, Ma Ridge, Pickled Again .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DENBERA DANCER (nap)'s Carlisle defeat last summer looks a bit better now than at the time and he's been found the right opening against several that have had plenty of cracks at it now.[GW]

Again 2 in the one race each way in Granary and Saviour Sand - Denbera Dancer coming back from a lay off in this maiden event and the 2 selected look priced to be competitive for the places and hopefully the win.

110 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sualda, 6/1 Marlborough Sound, Nevinstown, 7/1 Cutting Chrystal, Lanigan´s Ball, 8/1 Tirol Livit, 33/1 Dictatrix, Modarab, The Weaver, 50/1 Fairfield .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting could be helpful, particularly regarding the two Irish challengers, but this looks a minefield for backers. SUALDA stands out on form and, although the ground is not ideal (more rain forecast overnight), he may get away with it in such a weak race. Each-way alternatives are no more inviting.[FC]

A decent price gap for Sualda here but ground is a concern for me. A chance on Sualda today I think with a view to trading any price drop in running, or trading he place only market - back the horse to place pre race and trade anyt price movement in running.

Thos who want the chance of a tastier price may consider MArborough Sound under Tony Dobbin, but I'll stick with Sualda

140 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Modicum, 8/1 Rothbury, Smart Street, 9/1 King Daniel, Sharp Reply, 16/1 First Fought, 33/1 Geton, 50/1 Turbo Shandy, 100/1 Charles Street .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to get away from MODICUM who has been unfortunate to come up against two of the best of the new intake over fences this season. Smart Street may be the best each-way option.[FC]

"difficult to get away from" - early market indications - strongly favour the favourite - sharp reply is the interesting market mover. A straight forward win only bet for me, although niggle again is the ground conditions which may deteriorate with added rain

SHORTEST PRICED BETTING FORECAST FAVOURITE OF THE DAY

A good win yesterday with Fleet Street - unexpectedly evens at SP which was most welcome given prices are generally short odds on.
Today's selection is 140 MUSSELBURGH - Modicum at 4/7. Again I have selected him independently. Interesting to note the " difficult to get away from" - one of the trigger words - like yesterday with Kanisorn ( tough nut to crack) and Fleet Street (will be very hard to beat) -

FOOTY

BArcelona v Sevilla has been over 2.5 goals on the last 6 occasions - can we expect the same tonight? Sevilla should score 1 at least which will be great for overs TRADING not betting!
Getafe let me down last time and at 4/9 are worthy of support from the perspective of trading ( if in running) once they score the first goal.

Arsenal are odds on to win tonight at the Emirates and a lay of SPurs is probably the better option for me. This should be a humdinger ( hopefully as good as last night's game) and the youngsters should hold up well against the Spuds. As to goals this evening? Well historically goals are expected between these 2 at the Emirates but that's been with a Premier LEague squad and not a Carling Cup squad for the Arse.
The winning margin market on BEtfair is of some interest - Backing 0 goals at 3.45 and 1 goal at 2.4 to level stakes looks a decent enough option







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