31/1

Well Bantry Bere and Bertie May dutch was successful although I didn't get involved in this novice hurdle event.
Kornati Kid won for the dutch in which I included Dancing Dasi, at single figure odds from 14/1 in the betting forecast - it was actually a decent return this race

Well done to THeatre Diva although I chickened out and went with the place only - I should have had more faith in the excellent Paddy Brennan.

Now the 350 was won by fly in the ointment Nemetan, BUT Nemetan was 12/1 in the betting forecast opening up at 5/1 and SIMPLY had to be included. The key words I used yesterday were" current betfair prices" - you can see the ideal can't you - the live market near the off is key - SIngle Ingot went the other way and drifted so was left out of my dutch. Needless to say the 16/1 system bet Nematan won

Bold Policy came 3rd which is what I hoped for. The dutch on Bussell up and Salt of the earth came in with no bother.

Glenridding won albeit at a very short price because of the non runner market leader.

Cameroon won 3-0 so the half time/full time came in. Wit 2 goals coming by 30 minutes the over 3.5 goal rtade wsa on albeit only a small price movement.

TUTENKAMEN, SPHINX, CROCODILES, PHAROAHS, ZAMBIA GAVE YOUR BOYS ONE HELL OF A ,ERM, DRAW

Yes the mighty football collossus Zambia sneaked a draw in the 90th minute and the mug punter acca came in as I laid Zambia rather than let the greedmonster chose Egypt to hike the odds. The worrying game was the Chelsea game 1-0 for an extended period of time is not good on the heart!. But ,yet again, Chelsea DO NOT LOSE AT HOME - a pattern I mentioned in the last newsletter as some way to help you get an angle into the matches. THe correct score came in - 1-0 for a decentish return.

Overs in the Stuttgart match was never in doubt - final score 2-3!.

Well, yet another sequence ends doesn't it? The 2-1 scoreline between Liverpool and the HAmmers ended in 2 ways - West Ham won and they won by an under 2.5 goal scoreline (1-0). I hope you can see how sequencing can help you come to a decision. Laying Liverpool half time/full time came in and 3.4 was a reasonable price for the lay. Odds on away to the Hammers - that's a bit optimistic isn't it!

Well, Juventus and Inter Milan -I had to chuckle - 2-1 within 31 minutes - when I get em wrong, I get em wrong!

NAD AL SHEEBA

First meeting inalphabetical order

530

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Blackat Blackitten, 7/1 Azarole, Vortex, 8/1 Quorum, 10/1 Opportunist, Skywards, 14/1 Bo Bid, Gongidas, Montalba, Salt Track, 20/1 Akona Matata, 25/1 Fleeting Shadow, Naipe Marcado.

A noticeable price gap here for Godolphin's Blackat Blackitten. Place only could be a good bet some but a dirt debutant


SOUTHWELL

150
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hieroglyph, 5/2 Duke Of Touraine, 4/1 Contessina, 7/1 Park Royal, 8/1 Natural Rhythm, 12/1 Henry James .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest handicap which can go the way of DUKE OF TOURAINE on his first try on this surface for a yard which has enjoyed plenty of success on Fibresand over the years. He looks the type to make a better 3yo and does not have much to find on his latest fourth in a Wolverhampton nursery in November.[AC]

I can only go by prices at time of writing (ie we may get another market move like Nemetan nearer the off that I cannot possible predict ! ) but as things stand, BEtfair prices show Heiroglyph at 3.5, Contessina at 3.65 and Duke of Touraine at 4.3.

At these current prices, we can back these 3 to level stakes and profit if one of them wins. Further we are covering 1/2 te field. It must be said though that none of the 6 can be safely discounted with the outsider only 16 but probability wise we have the market leaders on our side.

This kind of dutch bet is open to market fluctuation between now and race time so bear that in mind.

THURLES
- HEAVY GROUND

Possible lay of Jimmy Ber in the 205 because of big field, maiden hurlde and heavy ground - again one to monitor in running as the price may well increase above that at which we lay pre race.

Elsewhere with heavy ground I am loathe to get involved.

TOWCESTER - SOFT

Again soft ground is immeidaltey offputting.

Novice hurdle first race, followed by a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle - hmmmm!

230
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Jaunty Flight, 6/1 Cortesia, 7/1 Loom, 9/1 Baseball Ted, 12/1 Avant Gardiste, Lupita, 16/1 Carrig An Uisce, Earlsfield Raider, Sir Peter, Tiegs, 25/1 Baron Romeo, Primitive Academy, 33/1 Rawaabet, 50/1 Carly Bay, 66/1 Midnight Spirit .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Loom is worth noting in the betting but JAUNTY FLIGHT (nap) was a very impressive winner last week and connections will be keen to strike again before her revised handicap mark comes into effect.[

Jaunty flight at 1.45 currently to place could be a way in here ( still the niggle of soft ground though) GAined an impressive win on heavy last time out - I always look for horses who are being raced before their revised handicap mark takes effect.

WINCANTON

140 - with Mick Fitz rolling back the years it was tempting to get involved in Fiddling again - another potential price gapper but the big field is offputting (27 runners) as is the fact this is a mares only event and they'll have their minds on handbags and shopping

WOLVERHAMPTON

Nothing interests me here at all

FOOTY

Check out the draw price on Angola v Tunisia - 4/5 at Ladbrokes- unbelievable scenes - conspiracy theorists will be out in force today. I have no insight as yet as the Racing Post's sport pages are not up online at this time so I can't get a background into the game ( they were spot on the last time the draw was priced up ) and perhaps a contrarian view could be taken

But, looking at the table, Tunisia and Angola share 4 points , with the other 2 teams on 1 point. So by drawing they will secure a point each and progress into the next stages. If one of Angola or Tunisia go for the win then they open themselves up to be over taken.

Simply put, a game to avoid!

WIth Barcelona v Villareal the only other game of interest this is the Spanish Cup and I cannot be sure of the attitude of the coaches .

A very quiet day's betting ends an excellent month for me ( I back my selections!) A very non commital day on the horse front too- I only bet when I'm sure I have an outstanding chance of a return, and recent calles like the Arsenal game have left me in the black with no need to bet for the sake of it

30/1

The in running trade on Hora worked a treat despite the horse losing - odds plummeted and I got out at 1.12 with a green screen thanks to the green up function on Fairbot. No problems with Numide for in running trading either. Stop the Show won which was very wellcoming although I only got involved in the place only market - d'oh!

Again, the key words were in running trading with Kanisorn who was backable at 1.7 yet sustained a price of 1.3 or less in running BUT still lost. So these words are important - horses like this are not straight bets for me - yes I envision a good run but don't have faith in the win ( but not enough to lay the horse!)

Haldibari came 4th in ground described as "heavy" and you know what I think of heavy - but I must put my faith in the Racing Post's morning website.

The dutch on Robin de Sherwood and Marcus came in as both battled out the finish.

Well it was "fill yer boots" time in the Arsenal match and I was almost joking when I said that Saturday's result would be replicated. Personally I backed Adebayour to score , and the odds of 2.02 almost shouted out that this was a shoe in! And the boy got the first goal. Arsenal half time/full time came in, BUT with the over 2.5 goal bet, I backed at 1.81 - the first goal came in 40 minutes and the price on overs was 1.85. The second goal came in and the price on overs was 1.83. I chickened out to be honest and created a red screen with £6 loss. It was the 40 minutes taken to break down Newcastle that made me uncomfortable. For those of greater faith than me, the 3rd goal arrived.

I also did a mug punter accumulator yesterday by laying Macclesfield away to MK Dons, laying Benin, and laying Mali, and backing Bayern at 1.17 and backing Arsenal - another evens bet , but the MK Dons decided to go 1-0 down to make the ticker tick a bit quicker!

I must thank the Racing Post for their analysis of the Ivory Coast game as ,backed by their argument, I backed Ivory Coast at 2.66. This game had the conspiracy theorists out as a draw would suffice for both teams , and 0-0 was only 5 with the draw around evens. This meant that odds elsewhere were over inflated.
Drogba scored early and odds went down to 1.58 and I traded out!
So, if you're taken by an article in the Racing Post and you think " yes " he puts up a good argument for that bet, then have a go ! I was loathe to get involved in the African Nations yesterday but glad I did.

EXETER - RACING POST SAYS GOOD TO SOFT

2 novice hurdles start the cards but these have not been happy hunting grounds for me the last few days - I suppose the word " novice" is the part I neglected to factor in previously.

Well the first race has a potential dutch between the 2 market leaders Bantry Bere and Bertie May - those with confidence in the market can back both to level stakes at current prices of evens and 3/1. I will stay clear today and see how this dutch may or may not win.

220
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Leamington Lad, 9/2 Kornati Kid, 11/2 Petroupetrov, 9/1 Go Johnny Go, 10/1 Boulevardofdreams, Galantos, Go West, The Abbots Habit, 14/1 Dancing Dasi, 16/1 Cullahill, 20/1 Devito, 25/1 Historic Place, 33/1 Kristoffersen, Men Of Destiny, Supreme Piper .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Leamington Lad ran a cracker at Doncaster on Saturday but these very different conditions don't look as suitable. Petroupetrov did well at Fakenham last time and should be suited by this stiffer track, but KORNATI KID is also in good shape at present and should have more to come.[EMW]

Current prices point to Leamington LAd and kornati Kid at 10/3 with Petroupetrov 3rd at 7/1. What interests me here is the big prices on a majority of the opposition - 4 horses are at 50/1 or bigger, 6 are 16/1 or bigger. Provided the front 3's price is replicated nearer the off I will dutch them to level stakes and hope the winner comes from the 1st 3 in the market. I am very aware of the David Pipe horse under Timmy Murphy - Boulevardofdreams and hope an 800+ day absence does for him.

320
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Theatre Diva, 5/1 Malakiya, 11/2 Manhattan Boy, 8/1 Hydromatic, Scaramouche, 12/1 Silver Sister, 16/1 Another Late Night, 100/1 Tanners Den .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THEATRE DIVA ended last season on an upward curve and will be hard to beat if she can reproduce her best form now that she goes chasing. The others all have something to prove

Potential price gapper here -replicated in the early market - form of 2121 is very consistent - positives - distance winner

Negatives - 366 day absence to overcome - any reason behind the scenes for this? It's great to see Paddy Brennan onboard - one of the next stars of jumps racing, and against my better judgement, I'll back today and monitor in running.

350
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Josear, 4/1 Sou´Wester, Zorro De La Vega, 11/2 Silver Inngot, 8/1 Eluvaparty, 10/1 Whatcanisay, 12/1 Nemetan, 16/1 Elegant Clutter, 25/1 Saby, 50/1 Opal Ridge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last-time-out winners Zorro De La Vega and Josear will rightly have their supporters but SOU'WESTER is still dangerously well treated over fences and may be able to bounce back from a slightly lacklustre effort. Eluvaparty is another to consider at a bigger price

If we can safely dismiss Opal Ridge, Saby, Elegant Cutter and Eluva party the 4 horses biggest priced in the early market, we are left with 6.

Now the Betfair market is interesting.
Souwester - 4.8
Josear - 5.5
Zorro de la vega - 5.5
What can I say - 6.8
Silver ingot - 8.8

£10 example stakes on all of the above leaves £3 loss on Souwester and escalating profits on the rest.
Nemetan is the fly in the ointment as is Eluvaparty.

I' simply playing the probability game and basing my bet only on prices not form or jockeys or anything else. Using a predetermined stake spread across these bets I don't care if it doesn't come in, but with 5 covered we have a decent chance. (NB - these are current betfair prices )

LEICESTER - SOFT - ODD HEAVY PATCHES

300

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Crofters Lad, 3/1 Bold Policy, 7/2 Clishmaclaiver, 5/1 Edgeover, 7/1 Just A Thought, 20/1 O´Sogood, 50/1 No Telling, Shampers .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some promising types do battle and the one that could come out on top is CLISHMACLAIVER, who produced a couple of very promising efforts in bumpers and is bred to appreciate this switch to hurdling. Bold Policy, Edgeover and Crofters Lad won't make it easy, though

The straight 8 here allows for place only/each way betting. 3 perceived outsiders brings the potential winners down to 5. Bold Policy at 1.6 to place is a good probability bet with potentially only 2 to beat to place.

(NOTE - another dutchable race - I would leave favourite out of my calculations as the prices indicate a very competitive race and a profit can be accrued in any of the other 5 contenders win)

LINGFIELD
225

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bussell Up, 11/8 Salt Of The Earth, 8/1 Extreme North, 20/1 Flemish Art, 33/1 Hucking Harrier, Rossini Byline, Tiara Boom De Ay, 100/1 Judge ´n Jury ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Salt Of The Earth starting to become expensive to follow, preference is for BUSSELL UP who had the misfortune to come up against a potentially useful sort at Kempton

11/8 favs can be dutched to level stakes

NEWCASTLE - GOOD TO SOFT

Like the football team, I can't see myself scoring a winner at Newcastle today

WOLVERHAMPTON

750
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Sawwaah, 6/4 Glenridding, 8/1 Meditation, 12/1 United Nations, 20/1 Subadar, 33/1 Inspirina .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a shoot out between SAWWAAH and Glenridding with the remainder all having question marks over them. It is hard not to have been impressed by the manner in which Sawwaah has won his last two races and he gets the nod.

Sawwaah looks to be a non runner, and by default I will back Glenridding without his main market rival.

NOTE - the 3 into 1 system which I have been featuring in the SYSTEM BLUEPRINTS section of www.whatreallywinsmoney.com is currently 7 from 9 winner or 8 from 9 winners I forget. This is after a very tricky period -the excitement I had in this system is returning with recent results so do look out and monitor this system - 5 from 5 last 3 days at reasonable prices.

FOOTBALL

The Arse done tremendous yesterday. The Boro Wigan match only managed 1 goal as predicted. In fact all of the relegation dogfights finished under 2.5 goals - a sign of things to come in this critical part of the season where these teams will want to doggedly defend to ensure goals are not scored against them.

First matches of interest occur in the African nations. Egypt face the mighty Zambians today in a game they should win comfortably. Ditto Cameroon at 1/12 ( remember the last 1/12 side - could only scramble a 1-0!)

Cameroon are 1.42 to win both halves and is the involvement I will probably have. They are 2 to get over 3.5 goals and this may be a tradeable option but I am reminded of overall underachievement from these heavily odds on shots.

MUG PUNTER ACCA ALERT

Yes folks, these mug punters acca's keep coming in - 5 from 5 in recent times - I haven't shared some with you out of embarrasment that my mug punter tendencies will go all Derby County! But here's another for your amusement
The success in yesterday's acca came because I avoided the obvious by puting a straight win only bet on MK dons, instead I laid Macclesfield and covered the draw (1-1) - MK Dons have been on shaky ground of late but I did expect a fight back on home soil BUT was not confident in the win - I expected them to avoid defeat.

1	Cameroon v Sudan (Backing Cameroon @ 1.12)
2	Egypt v Zambia (Laying Zambia @ 9.59)
3	W Bremen-A v Stuttgart (Laying W Bremen-A @ 14.86)
4	Rot-Weiss Essen v Hamburg (Laying Rot-Weiss Essen @ 13.68)
5	Chelsea v Reading (Laying Reading @ 32.24)
6	Man Utd v Portsmouth (Backing Man Utd @ 1.24)

6-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3,4,5 and 6	1.85	£49.00	£41.65

Funnily enough my worry is the Man Utd game - laying Portsmouth instead will produce a 1.53 pay out. I have included cup games where the Bundesliga teams should avoid defeat.

Werder Bremen (A) v Stuttgart - over 2.5 goals at 1.67 looks reasonable.

Will Reading be as difficult to break down for Chelsea as it was for Man Utd - 77 minutes it took United and that was with the help of Rooney and Ronaldo.

I can create a bet here in the correct score market, by backing 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0.

This has a reasonable chance of coming in. I can't see Reading score 2 as they have previously.

For £10 level stakes, returns are about £7.

Derby v City I will leave alone - instinct tells you a straight lay of Derby is the call but City were woeful against the Blades.

The last 3 games between West Ham and Liverpool have all ended 2-1 and as my close showbiz pal harry Hill would say " What are the chances of that happening?"

Liverpool half time/full time at 3.4 is worthy of laying I think. I can't really get an angle in here to be honest even despite the 2-1 sequence ending - the price is too big for laying.

Juve v Inter if in running looks a good under 2.5 goal trade for the first 1/2 hour of the match - this should be tight early doors.

FOOTBALL Arsenal v Newcastle leaps off the page , BUT surly Newcastle will have learnt something from Saturday's performance? If we look for a straight replication of Saturday's game then Arsenal half time/full time at 1.96 coupled with draw/Arsenal at 4.4 could cover most likely eventualities. Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 and Adebayour to score at 2.06 look my plays in this , BUT I wouldn't be surprised if Newcastle react to Saturday's game Midlesbrough v Wigan has historically been tight so I will opt for under 2.5 goals. There has only really been 1 goal in it recently.

29/1

Waterside won repaying those who took the win only single bet on the horse. Mixing won at Kempton for the dutch . The 200 Ludlow was won by a 16/1 system selection 20/1 in the betting forecast went off at 12/1 (Climate Change) thus throwing a spanner in the works regarding the 3 market leaders. The 440 at Wolves was definitely one for those to follow the money , ONLY the people following the money would have noticed Mr Macattack, 14/1 in the betting forecast opens up joint favourite then outright fav at 13/8 with Miss Lorne 2nd fav -it had to be a dutch for me with this (yet again)16/1 system qualifier in a maiden race where the money speaks.

Mr Macattack is perhaps an ideal version of the 16/1 system in action. This was the ONLY horse to have moved so dramatically from its betting forecast price AND in a race where money, by necessity , speaks (maiden races with debutants)

Well, the unders came in the Ghana game but at 2-0 it was all but over - the 20 minute mark did not bring a big price reduction but it did bring a price reduction allowing for a trade out. Those who took the under 2.5 straight bet were the luckiest punters in the world - it should have been blown out of the water!

Yet again another 1/5 shot disappointed in the African nations - with NAamibia equalising to make it 1-1 I expected over 2.5 goals to have been met. This I suspect won't augur well for the Nigeria game today with ultra short odds favourites winning by single goals and even drawing. Usually with 1/5 shots my first port of call is to see whether the half time/full time is worthy of consideration, and my second stopping point is the presumption that there will be more than 2.5 goals ,but, hey, this is African football we're talking about!.

Nantes v Le Havre finished under 2.5 goals - so Ladbrokes were correct with their assessment of the game as it remained 0-0 for an extended period. Interestingly, www.betdevil.com put forward Le HAvre or the draw despite Nantes being odds on.

FOLKSTONE

SOFT GOING SO CAUTION ADVISED

150
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Numide, 6/1 De Welsh Wizzard, 8/1 Birkspiel, 14/1 Six Day War, 20/1 Eastwell Smiles, Jeu D´Esprit, 33/1 Well Saved, Whistling, 50/1 Bessie Smith, Keltic Moon, Peyekashe, Where´s The Boss, 100/1 Kings Story, Near Germany, Orvita, Pochard .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NUMIDE won't be much of a price but there's very little temptation to see beyond him, especially after the form of his Leicester win received a timely boost with runner-up Matuhi winning nicely at Ludlow yesterda

With recent clear examples of the 16/1 system in action it is interesting to note that 6 day war is now 9/1 ( although its too early to give a definitive thumbs up)
A novice hurdle over soft with prices indicating more quantity than quality, Numide stands out of course. Has run on soft, and like the shortie in the novice hurdle who came knowhere, he looks a shoe in ( although in hindsight yesterday, a poor previous run form the horse yesterday should have sounded a note of caution)

Numide for me is a back and monitor in running I think. The form, Spotlight tells us, has been given a boost.

Those averse to involvement in such short prices in novice hurdle events, won't get a big liability if laying, but I expect the price to shorten with decent rivals so thin on the ground.

EACH WAY OPTIONS - are quite obvious here in Six day war, De Welsh Wizard and Birkspiel as an alternative to backing a 1/3 shot over jumps

350

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ommega, 13/8 Pangbourne, 9/2 Stop The Show, 14/1 Sir Harry Cool, 25/1 Tobougg Welcome, 50/1 Alfloratta, Surely Keen, Wee Alfie .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Stop The Show could threaten if stepping up again on his Newcastle third but OMMEGA is the one to beat on the pick of his French form, especially with Pangbourne so far disappointing over hurdles. IsS French form transferable to England? - I'm not so sure -a very obvious each way candidate in Stop the show and I will side with him in the hope 2 miles 6 in soft will find one of the main protagonists out. Probably better to load the place only side of this bet with a bit on the win. SOUTHWELL 130 BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hora, 8/1 Blue Hills, Cragganmore Creek, Cumbrian Knight, I´ll Do It Today, 10/1 Andorran, 12/1 Sand Repeal, 20/1 Orchard House, Ronsard, 25/1 Cemgraft, Tioga Gold, 33/1 Reminiscent, Subsidise, 50/1 Feeling Peckish . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hora is going to be very hard to beat if repeating last week's effort but there will be better short-priced propositions in the coming weeks. Heading the list of each-way alternatives are Malcolm Jefferson's pair Cumbrian Knight and I'll Do It Today, with ORCHARD HOUSE also interesting at a price.[GW] Potential price gapper here now odds on in the morning market, won by 17 lengths last time out. New to the distance ( dropping 2 furlongs) but a course winner, top RPR (although worryingly only 56!) NEGATIVES - amateur riders handicap , class 6 race so poor quality , inexperienced jockey. Another for me to back I think and trade in running - 1 mile 6 is ample time to be reactive. Obvious alternative would be for a place only bet - albeit only 1.26 -nothing has really been backed against the fav. Here's what analysis of the previous race says " Needless to say, she will prove very hard to beat if turning out with a penalty in the near future." but they didn't think an amateur rider would be on board? We'll need to see the headgear on again. 300 Interesting to see Kanisorn again, backed off the boards when he won a couple of starts ago in selling company. A multiple winner in Italy, the horse, along with compatriate Mon Ami, brought the money home is style. Kanisorn was a 10 length winner back in selling company last time, beating devilfishpoker.com who has since won. Another for an in running trade for me back down in selling company TAUNTON SOFT GROUND 140 Haldibari Ability on the Flat for Andre Fabre and shaped with a fair bit of promise both outings over hurdles; that form well in advance of anything these rivals have achieved and will be hard to beat in this company. BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Haldibari, 8/1 Pterodactyl, 10/1 Huguenot, Pacha D´Oudairies, 14/1 Le Beau Bai, 20/1 Norisan, Synonymy, 25/1 Bull Market, Dip Anchor, 33/1 Chilbury Hill, Grumpy Bee, 66/1 Grand Sefton, Mr Excel, Ring Bo Ree . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for HALDIBARI to open his account over hurdles. The 4yo bettered the form of his hurdle debut when tackling a soft surface at Lingfield last time and a reproduction of that will make him hard to beat. Pterodactyl, a dual French Flat winner, is one to keep an eye on for this hurdle debut. [RY] Another potential price gapper with the price gap reflected in the live market, positive spotlight comment with those trigger words " hard to beat" in full view. Choc Thornton is aboard - a real positive. Of concern to me is the proximity of Huguenot and Pterodactyl in the betting , both 13/2 - why? Well they are both debutants and you will note Huguenot is 10/1 in the betting forecast. So to say that " that form is way in advance of anything his rivals have achieved" is misleading . Obviuous place only material (reflected in the poor price) I will chance Haldibari as a standalone bet. 240 BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Robin De Sherwood, 3/1 Marcus, 6/1 Parsou, 8/1 Young Dancer, 12/1 Swift Sailor, 25/1 L´Oudon, 33/1 Killing Me Softly, Leading Article, 50/1 Bright Green, 100/1 The Walnut Tree . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Marcus, Young Dancer and Parsou have to put a poor run behind them and are likely to have their work cut out against ROBIN DE SHERWOOD (nap) who sets a decent standard on his Hereford third A bit of each way thievery? 10 horses, one at 100/1, 2 at 66/1, 1 at 40/1 and 1 at 33/1 reduces the field somewhat. Shortlist now of Marcus, Parsou, Young Dancer, Swift sailor. Robin de Sherwood and MArcus for me in a dutch to level stakes ( big profit if MArcus comes in, break even/ slight loss on Robin de Sherwood) -or you could decrease stakes on Marcus to leave marginal profit on Robin A muddling day with a number of shorties in with a decent shout. FOOTBALL Arsenal v Newcastle leaps off the page , BUT surly Newcastle will have learnt something from Saturday's performance? If we look for a straight replication of Saturday's game then Arsenal half time/full time at 1.96 coupled with draw/Arsenal at 4.4 could cover most likely eventualities. Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 and Adebayour to score at 2.06 look my plays in this , BUT I wouldn't be surprised if Newcastle react to Saturday's game Midlesbrough v Wigan has historically been tight so I will opt for under 2.5 goals. There has only really been 1 goal in it recently.

28/1

Ten down won . Pomme Tiepy won and at no time did the odds rise over 2.4 so I backed with the stake I laid when the odds hit and broke 2 on Pomme tiepy reducing losses. In running monitoring can help both ways (ensure profit and cut losses if you're pre race presumption doesn't materialise). There was just no price fluctuation at all.
Sizing Europe did not go off fav - there were 2 at 5/2 joint so fav couldn't be laid. Early prices at time of writing altered - break even on Sizing Europe in the end if all 4 were dutched to level stakes.
Gold medallist dutch was off with Roll along a non runner.

Under 2.5 goals trade came good in the Man Utd game in the first 20 minutes with a .40 price drop to 1.75 allowing a marginal green screen profit. The asian handicap came off thanks to a bad goalkeeping error. No clean sheet for Utd alas

Balloonacy at Sheffield Utd v City as the Blades scored first thanks to some balloons? ( I'm clutching at straws here looking for an excuse!) With the blades scoring first the over 2.5 goals bet became far more likely. Bye bye unders with 2-0 the Blades - totally unexpected but an opportunity to back the favs at over 9 in the hope of a recovery which came fleetingly as the price for Man City dropped to 5.8 as they scored. A nice 4 point trade there .

The mug punter accumulator came good and ,as I thought, Falkirk were far tighter this time and there was no way 4-0 or 4-1 would be replicated ( another case of sequencing perhaps?) With 0-0 looking likely Celtic's win odds increased to 1.8 and over 2.5 goals was 3.5. Both dropped dramatically with the Celtic goal just before the half time whistle. This was a pity as I wanted to get involved after half time. Although the game finished 1-0 market expectation was that over 2.5 goals would be met and the market reacted accordingly - again there's no need just because you may have backed overs for you to stay in the bet - with in running betting it's best to get that green screen and preserve betting bank by getting stakes back through trading.

A muddling day yesterday.

incidentally, I took some interesting price graphs for the above which I will transfer onto the website under articles just to show you how the price fluctuates in reaction to incidents in football - a characteristic not shared with pre race trading on horse racing which is weight of money influenced rather than influenced in reaction to something.

KEMPTON - ALL WEATHER
150
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Waterside, 5/1 Without Excuse, 6/1 Alfie Tupper, 8/1 Hucking Heat, 12/1 Boundless Prospect, Fregate Island, 20/1 Smokey The Bear .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WATERSIDE has to prove his stamina at this trip but he has won over an extended mile and he has considerably more ability than his rivals, so he looks the one to beat. Without Excuse could be the one to capitalise if the selection underperform

Waterside

Didn´t have to be at his best to win claimer here last time but even that effort gives him excellent claims; still to prove he stays this far but has been ridden with more restraint of late and looks the one to beat.

The "one to beat" in this claimer - the price gap is most certainly there. Near market rival Alfie Tupper is a non runner. Concern over the trip for the favourite.

Waterside is currently 1.71 on Betfair and near market rival Without excuse is 5.7.
Yet again a straight (for example) £10 level stakes bet on both will produce a £2.90 loss on Waterside and a £35 profit on Without excuse. The presumption is that these 2 should dominate ( but note class of race - not the best) .

This is a nice scenario given Alfie Tupper's absence. By reducing Without excuses stakes we could turn the £2.90 loss into a break even on Waterside.

At 1.68, as a standalone bet, Waterside may be worth a singular interest, although my personal preference is for the above scenario.

220 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Little Richard, 100/30 George Henson, 9/2 Medieval Maiden, 5/1 Mixing, 7/1 Amwell Brave, 8/1 Wee Charlie Castle, 25/1 King Of Diamonds, 33/1 Bandits Pistol, Raydan .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GEORGE HENSON looks to have been given a real chance by the handicapper here and with the prospect of more improvement to come, he is worth siding with. Whilst his Southwell win was only modest form, there is no reason to doubt the second and third gave their running and a mark of 50 looks generous. The reliable Little Richard and Mixing look best of the rest

PRices for the first 5 on BEtfair are 4.7 , 5.4 , 6, 6, 6.4 as I write. £10 level stakes on all leaves a marginal loss on Little Richard and profits of £3.80, £9.50, £9.50, £9.50, and £13.30 leave us covering the first 5 with Amwell Brave priced as the only fly in the ointment at 11.5. The other 2 are 38 and can, we presume, be left alone.

4/1 the field though, indicates none can be discounted but by backing 5 of the 9, we have over half the field on our side.

The 250 sees another possible dutch amongst the first 2 but this is a 6 furlong small field handicap.

LUDLOW - GOOD GROUND

200
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 French Saulaie, 7/2 Chaninbar, Consigliere, 20/1 Climate Change, Kervriou, 25/1 Quillan Hill, Thenford Flyer, 33/1 Dante´s Diamond, 66/1 Arte Et Marte, Grey Shark, The Thunderer, 100/1 Beesneez, Orrezzo .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The outcome depends to a large extent on whether Arkle Chase entry FRENCH SAULAIE puts in a clear round. The clear pick on hurdling form, he looked the one to beat at the time of his exit in a stronger race at Chepstow on his chasing debut. Consigliere may prove a bigger threat than Chaninbar.[FC]

French Saulaie is the one to beat here in a 3 runner race

" French Saulaie

Consistency not his strong point but basically progressive over hurdles, probably career-best effort when second off 135 at Newbury last month; in process of putting subsequent poor run, on ground that might have been too firm, behind him when unseating four out in decent beginners event at Chepstow on chasing debut (winner has scored again) and likely to be hard to beat with a clear round."

Comes with those trigger words "likely to be hard to beat"

4/5 offers reasonable odds here. There is an obvious each way route via Consignere and Chaninbar and you could, if seeking larger returns and willing to take the loss, back both to level stakes against the current 1.78 favourite. .

Personally, I will back French Saulaie with the caveat that I will follow progress in the in running market.


I must say, though ,that I like the back of French with £10 (example) stakes, with £8 on Consigniere and £6 on Chaninbar. At current prices of 1.78, 5.2 , 6.8 this leaves a loss of £6.20 on the favourite but possible returns of £17 on the other 2. (again we are making the big assumption that all other horses can be discounted)

250 - small mention - possible 3 horse race but 2 mile 5 novices is a bit offputting

WOLVERHAMPTON

440

BETTING FORECAST: Evs West Lorne, 5/1 Moscow Oznick, 7/1 Silver Waters, 8/1 Little Lovely, 10/1 Doric Dream, 14/1 Awesome Light, Mr Macattack, 25/1 Rightcar Hull, Tripod Molly ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mark Johnston has a fine record with 3yo newcomers on this track (won this race last year win debutant Regal Parade) and the well-bred WEST LORNE will not have to be anything special to make a winning debut today

4 debutants here and an odds on debutant in West Lorne ( reputation of trainer/jockey combination?) A quite clear price gapper, you should know by now about backing debutants based on reputation and no proven ability over the surface. Currently evens, for those who will follow the money !

Another taxing Wolverhampton card.

FOOTY

Man City let me down yesterday and really I should have researched their away form, and merely assumed their premiership credentials would ensure victory - well done to the Blades ,really gritty as shown by Morgan and Geary working their socks off - clearly fan's favourites!.

2 5 o clock starts in the African nations. With Ghana failing to really deliver as their 1/12 odds suggested, we can expect a torrid time for them again today at a shade of odds on against Morocco. I will chance an under 2.5 goal trade here given their inability to score properly last time out. Again I think 20 minutes is the key time to allow the market price to drop to a tradeable level.

I guess that Namibia weren't the whipping boys we all expected ,and they face Guinea today who are 1/5 on to beat them. Morocco beat Namibia 5-1 and Guinea beat Morocco 3-2 so I'll go with over 2.5 goals here

Nantes v Le Havre - interesting to see Ladbrokes price the draw up at 15/8 - signal of a close game? May be worth an under 2.5 goal punt here - BUT it's not in running so we cannot be reactive and trade.

Not strong bets today but rather speculative ones. Worth chancing though if LAdbrokes is correct in his odds compiling.

28/1

Ten down won . Pomme Tiepy won and at no time did the odds rise over 2.4 so I backed with the stake I laid when the odds hit and broke 2 on Pomme tiepy reducing losses. In running monitoring can help both ways. There was just no price fluc



120
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Pomme Tiepy, 7/2 Notre Pere, 4/1 Callherwhatulike, 8/1 Be My Leader, Call Bewleys, 10/1 Line Ball, 12/1 Kilcrea Castle, 20/1 Druids Cross, Torduff King, 50/1 Shesadoll, 100/1 Misty´s Express.

I put up Pomme Tiepy last time after the horse scored readily but on this occasion level stakes bets on Notre Pere and Callherwhatyoulike and Be my leader are possible with the shortest price currently 7/2. HEavy ground and 3 miles means I am reluctant to back a 5/4 shot facing a more difficult race today.
At 2.18 I suppose Pomme Tiepy is worthy of laying as an alternative, again the ideal being, like LArkwing, to react in running and "buy" back the bet at higher odds in running. Software such as fairbot allows this, as does betangel basic. You could put in a back bet at 4 (or whatever price you want) and submit that in running and hope it gets matched, mindful that the stakes must ensure a green screen. If successful we will have a green screen profit on all horses.

Personally I prefer manual control in running, mindful of the horse that hit 28 recently in running and still won!

255

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Sizing Europe, 11/4 Hardy Eustace, 3/1 Aitmatov, 7/2 Al Eile, 10/1 Ebaziyan, 12/1 Lounaos .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A small field but a bit of a puzzle nonetheless, and it may pay to keep the faith with the evergreen HARDY EUSTACE in his bid to reverse recent form with Al Eile, and to keep at bay Sizing Europe who appears on the verge of entering hurdling's premier league.

Intriguing contest Sizing Europe, Hardy, Aitmatov and Al Eile are all priced either 4 or 5 making this, as pointed out, a real "puzzle".


Again we can employ a level stakes dutch as the shortest price is 4 and break even on Sizing Europe and Al Eile and win the equivalent of an evens bet on Hardy and Aitmatov.

Alternatively, try to eliminate one of these 4 horses -this will allow a level stakes dutch on the 3 remaining horses and a profit equivalent to an evens bet on 2 and 2/1 on HArdy Eustace. BUT who to eliminate? Prices of 4,4,5,5,1 indicate they are very closely matched and it will be luck rather than judgement that we will have chosen the right horse to eliminate.

This is where playing the probability game comes in. If you're happy to break even on Siaing Europe and Al Eile, then back all 4 to level stakes ( dependent of course on the shortest odds being 4 on BEtfair which they currently are. )

Alternatively select one horse to leave out - personally I would take the perceived favourite out as it is obviously competitive, and back the other 3 to level stakes and hope for the best.

Sizing Europe is the current fav.

This of course assumes that we can sasfely dismiss Ebizyan and Laonous which of course wecan't given conditions and the grade of race. But by backing 4 (or 3) we are covering those "most likely"

SOUTHWELL - JUMPS NOT ALL WEATHER

Good ground
145 - Gold medallist is fancied and is currently 2 on Betfair, Roll along cannot be dismissed and is 4.35 - again level stakes on these 2 will pay off if Roll along wins.
NOTE - this is a 3 mile novice chase so not an ideal betting medium and the market leaders are not guaranteed to win in this race type but it's worth a punt given the weakness in price of the remaining horses.

FOOTY

Generally good day yesterday despite Havant and Waterlooville's superb efforts.
Man Utd v Spurs is a highlight today - United at home could shade the advantage. MAn Utd are priced the same as Chelsea were against Wigan yesterday but I think they face a stiffer task than the Ruskies did against Wigan today.
The last 4 encounters at Old Trafford have all been under 2.5 goal affairs, with United always landing the first blow. Of course fresh in the mind is the 4-0 drubbing at White Hart lane.

I think if a goal is scored today, Man Utd will be the first to score.

Of the top 4 that Spurs have played recently, they have lost to Chelsea 2-0 and lost to the Arse 2-1. We can assume then there is a gulf in class and the Top 4 have an edge in any encounter with the Spuds.

All signs point to an under 2.5 goal TRADE here for the first 20 minutes of the game ( yesterday after 20 mins in the CHelsea game, the price went from 1.87 down to 1.3 allowing for a nice trade) , and a one or goal victory for the home side.

After seeing Nicky Butt(ocks) own goal scupper my winning margin bet in the Arsenal game, I am tempted again with the dutch of 1 and 2 goals winning margin at prices of 2.82 and 3.95.

Man Utd -0.5&-1.0 If Man Utd win by 2 or more If Man Utd win by 1 If Man Utd do not win

£59.00 £29.50 -£100.00

The above asian handicap bet is of interest here, slightly increasing the 1/2 about United to win in the Match odds market.

2.46 about a United Clean sheet looks reasonable enough given Spurs recent history at Old Trafford - 2 1-0's and a 0-0 punctuated by a 1-1 -stats are in our favour.

Under 2.5 goals trading looks the call in the Sheffield, Man City game and a probable City win by 1-0 is priced at 7.2, AND is tradeable if City take the lead as that 7.2 will drop as the game progresses.

African nations are hard to predict today so I'll leave alone.

MUG PUNTER ACCA

CAme in with a boom yesterday - Hibs match postponed meant that the 4.58 about the acca was slightly shortened. Nice odds and a nice return.

1	AC Milan v Genoa (Backing AC Milan @ 1.27)
2	Man Utd v Tottenham (Laying Tottenham @ 9.19)
3	Falkirk v Celtic (Backing Celtic @ 1.45)

Trebles
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2 and 3	2.07	£10.00	£10.70

Celtic have won by the odd goal in 4 against Falkirk in their last 2 home and away and could bring home the bacon today although after 2 drubbings, I have a niggle that Falkirk may be more defensive this time - a case of lesson learned?
Milan were comfortable 3-0 victors away at Genoa
Hope for Man Utd victory or draw
Bumps the odds up to 2.07. Not a strong accumulator but we have a chance of it coming in IF past form is replicated