Saturday 8 September 2007

8/9

Cool the heels unplaced at 40/1 and Dubai LAnd unplaced at 18/1,
I chose the wrong horse in the 200 Haydock

200 HAYDOCK
ETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Silvanus, 15/8 Hammadi, 7/1 Not My Choice, 12/1 No Page, 14/1 Chivola, Inxile, 16/1 Writingonthewall, 33/1 Hamish McGonagall, Kiowa Princess, Senorita Parkes, 66/1 Silken Spell, 100/1 Charlie Oxo.

The winner was Inxile to the left of Writing on the Wall and Hamish MCGonnagall also placed! I select the right races to take favs on, wish I could chose the horses each way better.

Taweeza 3rd at 9/1, Classic Descent 4th at 13/2
Tenjack King a non runner, Hit the roof unplaced at 16/1,
Lady Sorcerer 3rd at 20/1, Albany BEck unplaced at 33/1, My Aunt Fanny 3rd at 20/1, Silver Rime a non runner and Mashrai unplaced at 33/1,

The price gaps were generally poor yesterday -each had a question mark - Royal Indulgence was a multiple handicap winner and the price gap was only 5/2 - - - 11/2.
Right Combination was a non runner, The Crazy Parson was 3rd at 6/4, and Slam was 2nd at 1/2 - another maiden fav goes down!

So a poor return with only a couple of big priced placed horses which would have paid out a decent amount. for the price gaps, I will try to explain my strongest bets and those less confident ones.

Again, it's a busy Saturday - bookie benefit day

EACH WAY

235 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Olympian Odyssey, 7/2 Caldra, 4/1 Winged Cupid, 12/1 Smart Enough, 14/1 Appalachian Trail, Harvest Queen, Metropolitan Man, 20/1 Azarole, 25/1 Tell.
A listed race and the betting market is usually good for these races so I'll chance Winged Cupid each way.

220 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Reel Gift, 3/1 Sporting Art, 9/2 Fred´s Lad, 10/1 Naomh Geileis, 12/1 Master Chef, 14/1 Lady Aquitaine, Red Alert Day, 20/1 Lytton, 25/1 Ten Meropa, 33/1 Cee Bargara, Philario, 40/1 Spanish Bounty.
Naomh Geileis and MAster Chef each way

530 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Pivotal Answer, 5/1 Mustajed, 10/1 Crossbow Creek, Desert D´Argent, Kingscape, Krugerrand, Ocean Avenue, Polish Power, 12/1 Prince Nureyev, 16/1 Cavallini, Fear To Tread, 20/1 Daring Affair, Kervriou, 33/1 Desert Leader, Magic Mountain .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pivotal Answer could well have more to come, while any market confidence behind Desert D'Argent would look significant after her absence. MUSTAJED still looks well treated on the AW though and he can follow up his recent C&D success.[PSm]

An interesting market with Mustajed in isolation really inbetween the market leader and a whole host of 10/1 horses - he must be a decent each way bet.

140 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Maidin Moch, 5/1 Chinese White, Kitty Matcham, 11/2 Yali, 6/1 Carbonia, 7/1 Fikrah, 10/1 Crystal Swan, 12/1 Edmondstown Lass, 14/1 Countess Zoe, 16/1 Choosey Girl, Glowing, 20/1 Bonnie Bluebell, Jebel Musa, Little Miss Diva, Mystical Lady, Royal Duty, 25/1 Valentine Hill.
A maiden race full of debutants and this betting forecast is nothing more than a stab in the dark - a fine opportunity for a big price in Choosey Girl and Glowing just before the outsiders - of course the live market will reveal all

210 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Red Evie, 9/4 Arch Swing, 4/1 Echelon, 10/1 Evening Time, 14/1 Sweet Lilly, 16/1 Barshiba, 20/1 Modeeroch, 25/1 Eastern Appeal, She´s Our Mark.
Echelon each way looks the obvious candidate
230 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dr Faustus, 7/4 Meer Kat, 10/1 Muzmin, 12/1 Funny Me, 16/1 Wadi Raider, 20/1 Boy Blue, 25/1 Desert Lark, Harlequinn Danseur, Lanterns Of Gold, 33/1 Terracos Do Pinhal, Whaston .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dr Faustus caught a tartar in Spacious when turned over at odds-on at Leicester last time but, although the step up to this trip will suit, he's hung on both starts and is unproven on quick ground. He is taken on with MEER KAT, who showed improvement over this trip on fast surface behind a better-fancied stable-companion last time.[RY]
Question marks about one of the main contenders so a chance on Muzmin and Wadi Raider each way

FOOTY
One good bet for me looks to be Ghana to beat Morocco as long as the ghanaians have a full squad and play their first team.
I'll be laying England at 1/3 for the early part of the match mindful of the time it took to score against Andorra THis will be a trading bet of course - an alternative could be the under 2.5 goal trade for the early part of the first half to get out after a decent enough price drop

PRICE GAP
310 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Sakhee´s Secret, 7/1 Marchand D´Or, 8/1 Asset, 9/1 Hellvelyn, 10/1 Balthazaar´s Gift, Red Clubs, 12/1 Per Incanto, 20/1 Al Qasi, Amadeus Wolf, 33/1 Mutawaajid, 40/1 Wi Dud, 50/1 Sierra Vista, 66/1 Somnus, 100/1 Advanced, Fayr Jag, Scarlet Runner .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Difficult to oppose SAKHEE'S SECRET (nap) who looked the real deal when winning the July Cup and it is hard to see why the likes of Red Clubs, Marchand d'Or or Asset should turn the tables. A more interesting rival is Hellvelyn who ran a blinder to be beaten only about 4l there considering he had been off for 287 days and has since built on that when winning a Listed event at Beverley.[AC]

Sakhees Secret has a great price gap here. SLight concern is this is a relatively big field of 16 top class sprinters.
I would still bet Sakhees Secret if the price gap looks similar in the live market

350 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Dylan Thomas, 5/1 Red Rocks, 13/2 Finsceal Beo, 7/1 Duke Of Marmalade, 10/1 Maraahel, 66/1 Red Rock Canyon .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dylan Thomas is going to be an exceptionally tough nut to crack, but at the prices it is possibly worth taking a chance that FINSCEAL BEO can recover her early-season brilliance. Her trainer's record with top-class fillies speaks for itself.

PRobably won't go off at 4/6, but a decent enough price gap here. The opposition are no mugs but I would chance a win bet if the price was 4/6 or thereabouts

520 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Option Money, 4/1 Alto Stratus, 9/2 The Hairy Mutt, 8/1 Darth Vader, 10/1 Delays Expected, 14/1 Shade Bonny, 20/1 Exit Route, 33/1 Handy Cross, Wychwoods Legend, 100/1 Miracle Bill, Sawyer´s Gold, White Tie, Wichita Brave .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OPTION MONEY looks the safest bet, though watch out for any market confidence behind Alto Stratus as her trainer Alan Swinbank should know where he stands with the selection, having saddled the runner-up to him at Market Rasen.[AWJ]

Option Money is not too confident a selection being a fav in a bumper - probably place only bet dependent on whether the live market prices reflect the above betting forecast


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