Monday 10 September 2007

10/9

Alexander Mobile 4th at 20/1 and Hunterstown Queen 5th at 25/1 - a 3rd place would have paid out nicely! Another 4th in Commanchero at 14/1 with Classic Croco unplaced at 8/1. Correy 3rd at 16/1 good place payout on BEtfair , Barneys dancer unpalced at 33/1 , Mistified 4th (again)at 11/1, and Leonardos friend unplaced at 14/1, Eldorado 2nd at 7/1 and hathaal a non runner.Esteem a great 2nd place at 25/1 and Blejan Ehyre unpalced at 25/1, MAccabeus unplaced at 20/1

With the price gaps, you will notice no " hard to beat" or "difficult to oppose" in the Spotlight commentary. Atlantic Coast, as I suspected for a multiple handicap winner, did not win again. Bothar Nar placed , and Granite Man was speculative as he didn't fit with the profile of a Palmetto Point or, most recently, Dylan Thomas - chance taken that he could reproduce his previous run before he fell when well in contention. The need here is to go for the rock solids

I was very disappointed with the number of 4th places yesterday for the each way bets - 20/1, 14/1 and 11/1 all missed out on a nice BEtfair place only payout and we could have done with Esteem winning at 25/1 ( huge on Betfair) to negate for these unplaced horses.
As you can see , a lot of big prices mean that with this type of betting it's ideal to get out on the day when you've hit an early winner or big priced place - this happened with Esteem in the 230 Stratford - I've said it before - when you bag a biggie early doors take the money and run

EACH WAY
Typically poor Monday
240 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Palm Court, 7/2 Kristal Glory, 8/1 Kyrie Eleison, 14/1 Feasible, Hyper Viper, Midnite Blews, 16/1 Blandys Wood, Just Jimmy, 20/1 Agon Eyes, Charlie Be, Mister Cafnex, Ostinata, Yes Meg, 25/1 Alfredtheordinary, 33/1 Dhaka Dazzle, Holy Storm.

A big field nursery - Kyrie Eleison looks the obvious each way candidate but often going for the obvious in a race of this nature negates the chance to get a good priced horse. I will chance Blandys wood and Just jimmy each way - 16/1 chances
340 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Star Strider, 11/4 O Fourlunda, 100/30 Winning Show, 7/2 Oystermouth, 16/1 Punching, 20/1 Damhsoir, 25/1 Stargazy, 33/1 One White Sock, 40/1 Pathway To Glory, 50/1 Silver Flame, The Carpet Man, 66/1 Our Archie, Ring Of Charm.

WIll this race revolve around the first 4 in the bettng as the forecast suggests? I'll chance at least one or 2 of them not giving their running and hope Punching and Damhsoir can be competitive for the minor places
220 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mon Plaisir, 7/2 Nezami, 5/1 Billion Dollar Kid, 6/1 Pediment, 10/1 Little Toto, 14/1 Fort Hull, 25/1 Altercation, Desert Thistle, Langham House, Tobago Bay, 33/1 Peer Pressure, 40/1 It´s My Day, 66/1 Fraamington.
Again there are obvious candidates but I would prefer the less obvious in this sprint maiden in Little Tot and Fort Hull each way - there is a giant leap to the 25/1 and bigger horses
345 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Angel Dreamer, 3/1 Reyaada, 9/2 Heaven Bound, 12/1 Becuille, 14/1 Citronelle, 16/1 Fanacanta, 20/1 Royle Penny.
Maiden fillies and a chance on BEcuille and Citronelle each way - only 7 runners and 2 the place but I have seen shocks in these small field maidens before
715 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Nexthingwas, 7/2 Balance Of Power, 8/1 Beliar, Fast Fred, Our Little Cub, 10/1 Natural Force, 14/1 Camouflage, Mean Machine, 20/1 Hawksbury Heights, Lady De Burgo, 25/1 Turloughmore Lad.
Another maiden hurdle and an opportunity to take on the shortie - as we've seen before they don;t all win in races like this and it was a maiden race in which I got my last 20/1 winner. I will chance Camouflage and Beliar each way
230 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Atabaas Pride, 3/1 Arcetri, 8/1 On Instinct, 12/1 Island Music, Orchestrion, 14/1 Andaman Sunset, 20/1 Bond Scissorsister, 33/1 Benitez Bond, Lamistrelle, 50/1 Spooky, 66/1 Handsinthemist, 100/1 Kyzer Chief, Latin Dancer.
Two horses obviously in contention for the win here, leaving a number with a palce only chance and also an opportunity for us incase Atabaas PRide or Arcetri run below par. I will chance Island Music and Orchestration eah way
PRICE GAPS
No proper candidates since Dylan Thomas and I will try to highlight any flaws that may hint at laying instead of backing, or at least backing for a place only rather than the win
There are no candidates today - a mention for Ataabas PRide who looks to have one to beat and may be a decent place only bet in the 230 Newcastle, and the Dermot Weld runner Angel Dreamer is in with a shout in the 345 Galway but I am put off by the fact it is a small field maiden for fillies and the horse has 2 near market rivals - 5/6 - - 11/4 - - 7/2

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