PRICE GAPS, My condor won well at a decent 11/8 (relative to usual prices on price gaps) - the early morning price gap in the live market proved the clincher. Ravarino came nowhere, and Iguazu Falls won as he should at 1/3
EACH WAY
It's becoming clear these speculative bets are, well, too speculative as we are not seeing a return. There's a couple of hard luck stories, I think it's now 2 25/1 2nds and a 20/1 2nd place, one of these in a photo which would have, naturally , added a whole different complexion to things. I will continue out if interests sake and see if I can tweak things. Outsiders do win, as seen by a 100/1 winner in, guess what?, a maiden. A look at the races I chose, and oftentimes, the favourites don't win.
230 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Barliffey, Confidence Trick, 5/1 We´Re Delighted, 10/1 Always Certain, Celt, 12/1 Saafend Geezer, 16/1 Talon, Zabeel Tiger, 20/1 Khana Ras, Maximus Aurelius, 25/1 Connor´s Choice, Seconds Out, 33/1 Avril Valley, Ray Diamond, Recoil, Restless Swallow.
A maiden with a number of newcomers. Barliffy with a couple of 2nds to his name looks great place only material. We're delighted is an obvious each way candidate. I am interested in the placings of Always Certain and Celt just after the 3 main protagonists each way.
300 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hampstead Heath, Tenjack King, 11/2 Stop On, 7/1 Black Jacari, 10/1 Tepee, 12/1 Addikt, 16/1 Downhiller, 20/1 Got Green, 25/1 Dancing Sword, 33/1 Captain Mainwaring, Graylyn Ruby, 50/1 Has To Be Abacus, Lancaster Lad, Orbital Orchid.
Another maiden, and as was seen yesterday, surprises do occur due to the profile of the race. A price gap of sorts between the main 2 protagonists at 5/2 and the 2nd fav at 11/2. Outsiders at 20/1 bar, and 5 horses in between who we can suggest may be competitive from a palce only perspective. One from the front and one from the back please Carole, I'll have Stop On and Addikt each way
410 CHESPTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Easterly Breeze, 11/2 Theta, 7/1 Meon Mix, Vivacita, 10/1 Berry Hill Lass, Hareem, Wroughton, 14/1 Apache Chant, 33/1 Icansingarainbow .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little strength in depth. Money for any of the newcomers will be signficant but this looks best left to EASTERLY BREEZE, who has shaped well on turf and who will be well suited by the step up to this trip.[RY] |
550 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Drumming Party, 5/1 Talcen Gwyn, 11/2 Endless Summer, 7/1 Digital, 10/1 King Egbert, 12/1 One Way Ticket, Summer Recluse, 14/1 Hello Roberto, 16/1 Cerulean Rose, Decider, Maktavish, 20/1 Enjoy The Buzz, Whistler, 25/1 Ballybunion, Campeon .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The strong finisher ENDLESS SUMMER possesses a winning attitude and gets the vote after a string of decent runs, including here. The probable dangers include Talcen Gwyn and Drumming Party.[BDO] |
5 furlong sprint handicap and anything could happen. One way ticket and Summer REcluse each way are both positioned outside of the top5
205 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Siberian Tiger, 8/1 Doctor Robert, 10/1 Cobo Bay, Crystal Rock, Ghetto, Jack Dawkins, The Betchworth Kid, 14/1 Blue Sky Basin, Determind Stand, 16/1 Annaliesse, Bonjour Allure, Ellemujie, 20/1 Dalkey Girl, Fathsta, Stubbs Art, Talk Of Saafend, Welcome Return, 25/1 Ernie Owl,
I didn't back Cobo BAy when he last ran simply because it was too obvious - Cobo Bay is a bay in Guernsey!. I will go for him this time along with Blue Sky Basin each way in a very competitive race
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Honky Tonk Sally, 9/2 Night Premiere, 5/1 Divine Power, 7/1 Blue Eyed Miss, 20/1 Ma Al Salamah, Mythical Fosroc, 25/1 Badoura, Kalligal, 33/1 Ava Gee, The Dragon, 40/1 Athboy Auction, Evenstorm, 66/1 Our Kally.
I will chance Ma Al Slamah and Mythical Fosroc each way to take advantage of any slip ups in the first 4 in the market
415 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Majority, 2/1 Ghimaar, 7/2 Seader, 14/1 Exploration, Mister Bannon, 20/1 Fair Dues, Jumbo Rio, 25/1 Drunken Sailor, Mask Of Conspiracy.
Exploration and Mister Bannon each way - 3 obvious contenders and another maiden race
645 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Equator, 4/1 Roundofapplause, 9/2 Better Than Jewels, 10/1 Eimear´s Beamer, Scolboakingofkings, 12/1 Cape Win, Last Warrior, Supreme Ruler, 14/1 Druid´s Chair, 16/1 Dont Jinx Me Johny, 20/1 Baguenaud, Calestes, Moscow Night, Star Jasmine, Tap On Nellie, 25/1 River D´Ocala, Where Art Thou, 33/1 Annephar, Cabb City, Katie´s World.
Another maiden hurdle and another short price favourite - again I will opt for the 10/1 shots in Eimear's Beamer and Scolboakingsofkings each way.
PRICE GAPS
An ok performance yesterday with My Condor winning although he didn't meet the strict template prvided by the likes of United Nations et al, and Izuagi Falls won at 1/3.
410 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Easterly Breeze, 11/2 Theta, 7/1 Meon Mix, Vivacita, 10/1 Berry Hill Lass, Hareem, Wroughton, 14/1 Apache Chant, 33/1 Icansingarainbow .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little strength in depth. Money for any of the newcomers will be signficant but this looks best left to EASTERLY BREEZE, who has shaped well on turf and who will be well suited by the step up to this trip |
A decent price gap here, and a maiden race which is not ideal. The market leader has had 4 runs and has finished 2nd in 2 of them.
Easterly Breeze Fair form in four starts to date (latest Ripon run franked by Double Doors, who won handicap off 78 at Haydock yesterday) and the highest of those with an official rating; leaves the impression that step up to this trip will suit (backed up by pedigree) and looks the one to beat.
One thing to note is the morning price gap which shows a main market rival in Theta who is at 9/2 at present
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Honky Tonk Sally, 9/2 Night Premiere, 5/1 Divine Power, 7/1 Blue Eyed Miss, 20/1 Ma Al Salamah, Mythical Fosroc, 25/1 Badoura, Kalligal, 33/1 Ava Gee, The Dragon, 40/1 Athboy Auction, Evenstorm, 66/1 Our Kally .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The form principals are all dropping down from 6f. HONKY TONK SALLY faces her easiest assignment to date and should be equal to the task with Divine Power probably the one to give her most to do |
A decent enough price gap but yet another maiden race.
Honky Tonk Sally Related to winners at 1m/1m4f but not been lasting home over 6f, in above-average Newmarket maidens first two outings and Lowther latest (out of depth); obvious chance to get off the mark in this company and has the speed to make the most of good draw.
Not a rock solid proposition for me and,again, looking at the morning prices, Blue eyed miss is now 4/1 offering some rivalry to the market leader. Remember My Condor yesterday,, the price gap was vindicated, and even improved, in the early morning market
325 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bygone Days, 4/1 Thousand Words, 5/1 Racer Forever, 7/1 Jack Sullivan, 11/1 Eisteddfod, 12/1 Assertive, 14/1 Vanderlin, 16/1 Ivory Lace, 20/1 Royal Power, 40/1 Tiana .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BYGONE DAYS (nap) looked back to something very close to his best when a close third in a Goodwood Group 3 last time and is the one to beat. Thousand Words has an uneven look to his form this season but is entitled to go very well if back to his peak and is readily preferred as the best alternative. [MCu] |
We can take a chance here I think ,ready preference ( and less risk , meaning less return) on the place
755 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Choisette, 6/1 Paddy Jack, Richardthesecond, 8/1 Bahamarama, 10/1 Speedy Senorita, 12/1 Orpen´s Art, 14/1 Diademas, 20/1 Baytown Blaze, Maracana Boy, 25/1 Frizzini, Myriola, Only In Jest, Rightcar Ellie .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of interesting runners but the one to appeal most is CHOISETTE (nap), who is ideally drawn for one that races up with the pace and whose second to a previous winner (pair clear) on her AW debut last week gives her a leading form chance off tonight's 2lb lower mark. [RY] |
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