Saturday, 15 September 2007
15/9/07 access problems
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Friday, 14 September 2007
14/9
Each ways are poor and I am perhpas being TOO speculative. Choisette was another ideal price gap horse who won well. The others all placed .
PRICE GAPS
445 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Notre Cyborg, 9/2 King Cyrus, 6/1 Wilhewispa, 13/2 Medic, 10/1 Andijan, 12/1 Overbranch, 20/1 Heebie Jeebie, 40/1 Billy The Shifter, Boston Mondain, 50/1 Africa Blaze, My Beautiful Loser, 66/1 Little Paddy, 100/1 Maisemore, Rexmehead .
Another criteria worth looking at is the price gap as it appears in the early morning prices - I did flag up Theta's price shortening yesterday and it won, here King cyrus is down to 7/2, 3/1 in some places with Notre cyborg still odds on. This isn't a rock solid price gapper to me, in the mould of Choisette
240 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Septimus, 7/2 Allegretto, 7/1 Geordieland, 8/1 Balkan Knight, 10/1 Distinction, Finalmente, 33/1 Baddam, 50/1 Land ´n Stars .
Septimus Jarred his shoulder in last year´s Derby but has come back better than ever this season, winning well at the Curragh (on pretty quick ground, too), excellent second in the Coronation Cup and then taking step up to 2m in his stride when decisive winner ofLonsdale Cup at York last time; style of that win suggested he could have pulled out more if need be and, with that performance suggesting this trip will be within range, the one to beat.
POSITIVES
Aiden OBrien / Murtagh combination must be taken seriously. Napped by Spotlight, looks to have only Allegretto to beat.
NEGATIVES
No real " hard to oppose" wording , Allegretto is very close at 7/2 and is a niggle. Septimus is stepping into the unnown distance wise.
CONCLUSION Looks nailed on for a place but at odds against may be worth including as a bet - 5/4 we'll get a decent run for our money and not many of these price gappers are odds against
310 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Fleeting Spirit, 7/2 Captain Gerrard, 6/1 Dark Angel, 9/1 Spirit Of Sharjah, 12/1 The Loan Express, 14/1 Proud Linus, 16/1 Cake, Warsaw, 33/1 Cute Ass .
POSITIVES "very much the one to beat back at her optimum trip" HArdened to 11/10 early doors but with near market rival at 7/2.
Fleeting Spirit Lost unbeaten record with the step up to 6f in Lowther, finishing a close third having raced keenly up with the pace, and little doubt she is ideally suited by the minimum trip; must be hard to beat judged on Molecomb victory over subsequent Nunthorpe winner Kingsgate
Native.
NEGATIVES
5 furlong affair , high class opposition, not am imposing price gap.
CONCLUSION - again being odds against swings me towards backing for the win
345 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Tobosa, 3/1 Mount Hadley, 13/2 Rock Of Veio, 100/1 Little Darlin .
Mount Hadley has shortened to 5/2 early morning - you can chance a forecast only bet on Tobosa to win and Mount Hdley to come 2nd - it's currently 1.66 although I would leave this race alone amyself
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Kashoof, 4/1 Your Pleasure, 8/1 Barbary Boy, Mayaar, 10/1 Wavertree Princess, 12/1 Warden Fizz, 16/1 Karmei, 25/1 Ubiquitous Bounty, 66/1 Sistos Fascination .
Not really gone on from second to Laureldean Gale (clear second in Deauville Group 3 since) in 6f Newmarket maiden but similar level of form and proved effectiveness back at the minimum trip on the same course when runner-up off 84 last month; sets a good standard on that evidence and likely to be hard to beat.
POSITIVES - decent enough pricew gap although, again, doesn't leap out at you like CHoisette yesterday. "likely to be hard to beat" Now 8/11 with nearest rival 5/1
NEGATIVES - has had 4 runs in maiden company , this is a maiden race over 5 furlongs. At Sandown yesterday over the straight course front runners tended to be favoured. Some newcomers in the field too
CONCLUSION - a good place only bet for me due to the race type, but if KAshoof gets an early lead then this will be a good in running play
320 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Amarna, 4/1 Pillar Of Hercules, Safwa, 5/1 Padlocked, 12/1 Bajan Pride, 20/1 Cesc, First Buddy, Kyle, 50/1 Baylini .
POSITIVES - form seems to have been franked - Godolphin horses must always be respected
NEGATIVES - out to 2/1, 9/4 early morning with Pilalr of Hercules now 3/1 and threatening for favouratism
CONCLUSION - a no bet for me - I would slide towards Pillar of Hercules for the place
855 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Gemology, 5/1 New World Order, 10/1 Yab Adee, 12/1 Oat Cuisine, 14/1 Beech Games, Fair Sailing, 20/1 Mark Of The Fen, 25/1 Balanchine Moon, Pont Wood, Princess Danehill, 33/1 Wattys The Craic, 66/1 Lily La Belle, 100/1 I´m Agenius .
POSITIVES - good price gap here
NEAGTIVES - all weather debut, up in trip, disappointed last time out , 204 day absence to overcome, maiden race, 3 debutants , and a coupel of horses open to improvement
CONCLUSION - will have to look at the betting nearer the off but there are enough negatives at preent to put me off Gemology
EACH WAY
A cracking place only lay system! BUT it's a backing system!
230 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Keycavern, 3/1 Dr McFab, 4/1 Hypnotic Vibes, 11/2 Marju´s Gold, 9/1 Majestic Chief, 12/1 Finlay´s Footsteps, 20/1 Goldan Jess, Royal Tender, 33/1 Salto Chico, 50/1 Wassendale.
A change of tack today -Marjus gold each way - going for more obvious ones and see how we progress
230 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Grecian Dancer, 4/1 Dimenticata, That´s Hot, 5/1 Abraham Lincoln, 6/1 Fleeting Shadow, 8/1 Mutamared, 14/1 Murfreesboro, 16/1 Inourthoughts, 20/1 Johnstown Lad, Pelican Waters, 33/1 Nanny McPhee.
Fleeting Shadow and Abraham Lincoln each way representing Weld/Smullen and O'Brien
135 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Perfect Act, 7/2 Relative Order, Winter Bloom, 6/1 Dubai Dynamo, 8/1 Huzzah, 10/1 Indian Days, Kersaint, 20/1 Higgy´s Boy, 50/1 Hansinger.
Dubai Dynamo eachw ay
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Kashoof, 4/1 Your Pleasure, 8/1 Barbary Boy, Mayaar, 10/1 Wavertree Princess, 12/1 Warden Fizz, 16/1 Karmei, 25/1 Ubiquitous Bounty, 66/1 Sistos Fascination .
Your pleasure each way
825 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 War Of The Roses, 4/1 Master Nimbus, 6/1 Cragganmore Creek, 10/1 Andorran, Proud Scholar, Saameq, 14/1 Bowl Of Cherries, Investment Pearl, Royal Melbourne, 20/1 Lady Ambitious, Scott, 33/1 Francescas Boy.
Craganmore creek and Andorran each way
PRICE GAPS
445 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Notre Cyborg, 9/2 King Cyrus, 6/1 Wilhewispa, 13/2 Medic, 10/1 Andijan, 12/1 Overbranch, 20/1 Heebie Jeebie, 40/1 Billy The Shifter, Boston Mondain, 50/1 Africa Blaze, My Beautiful Loser, 66/1 Little Paddy, 100/1 Maisemore, Rexmehead .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NOTRE CYBORG (nap) had things made easy for him on Sunday but his confidence should be sky high now and he is preferred to King Cyrus, who has yet to live up to market expectations but is open to improvement in a first-time tongue tie.[PJ] |
240 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Septimus, 7/2 Allegretto, 7/1 Geordieland, 8/1 Balkan Knight, 10/1 Distinction, Finalmente, 33/1 Baddam, 50/1 Land ´n Stars .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SEPTIMUS (nap) is readily preferred, this classy middle-distance horse having shaped as if 2m2f would be well within range when winning decisively upped to 2m at York last time. He looked to have a bit up his sleeve when beating Balkan Knight there and even with a 3lb turnaround this time, the form ought to be confirmed. Balkan Knight may still be next best, ahead of Geordieland.[MCu] |
Septimus
POSITIVES
Aiden OBrien / Murtagh combination must be taken seriously. Napped by Spotlight, looks to have only Allegretto to beat.
NEGATIVES
No real " hard to oppose" wording , Allegretto is very close at 7/2 and is a niggle. Septimus is stepping into the unnown distance wise.
CONCLUSION Looks nailed on for a place but at odds against may be worth including as a bet - 5/4 we'll get a decent run for our money and not many of these price gappers are odds against
310 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Fleeting Spirit, 7/2 Captain Gerrard, 6/1 Dark Angel, 9/1 Spirit Of Sharjah, 12/1 The Loan Express, 14/1 Proud Linus, 16/1 Cake, Warsaw, 33/1 Cute Ass .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Captain Gerrard, Spirit of Sharjah and Cake are better than they showed behind FLEETING SPIRIT in the Molecomb but, with the form so well advertised by Kingsgate Native's Nunthorpe win, Jeremy Noseda's filly remains very much the one to beat back at her optimum trip. Captain Gerrard can chase her home.[FC] |
POSITIVES "very much the one to beat back at her optimum trip" HArdened to 11/10 early doors but with near market rival at 7/2.
Fleeting Spirit
Native.
NEGATIVES
5 furlong affair , high class opposition, not am imposing price gap.
CONCLUSION - again being odds against swings me towards backing for the win
345 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Tobosa, 3/1 Mount Hadley, 13/2 Rock Of Veio, 100/1 Little Darlin .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOBOSA sets a very high standard for the other two serious contenders to surpass and though his best effort came when coming from off the pace in a strongly run handicap, he has shown smart form in single figure fields. Michael Hills may well have to adopt different, much more prominent tactics this time but it really shouldn't make any difference-a win is highly likely.[MCu] |
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Kashoof, 4/1 Your Pleasure, 8/1 Barbary Boy, Mayaar, 10/1 Wavertree Princess, 12/1 Warden Fizz, 16/1 Karmei, 25/1 Ubiquitous Bounty, 66/1 Sistos Fascination .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting should give an idea of expectations for the newcomers, but KASHOOF sets a decent standard and her experience may well be a deciding factor.[FC] |
Not really gone on from second to Laureldean Gale (clear second in Deauville Group 3 since) in 6f Newmarket maiden but similar level of form and proved effectiveness back at the minimum trip on the same course when runner-up off 84 last month; sets a good standard on that evidence and likely to be hard to beat.
POSITIVES - decent enough pricew gap although, again, doesn't leap out at you like CHoisette yesterday. "likely to be hard to beat" Now 8/11 with nearest rival 5/1
NEGATIVES - has had 4 runs in maiden company , this is a maiden race over 5 furlongs. At Sandown yesterday over the straight course front runners tended to be favoured. Some newcomers in the field too
CONCLUSION - a good place only bet for me due to the race type, but if KAshoof gets an early lead then this will be a good in running play
320 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Amarna, 4/1 Pillar Of Hercules, Safwa, 5/1 Padlocked, 12/1 Bajan Pride, 20/1 Cesc, First Buddy, Kyle, 50/1 Baylini .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of winners are already emerging from both the Kempton races the promising AMARNA (nap) won last month and there should be a good deal more to come from the Godolphin colt. Padlocked and Pillar Of Hercules can provide the main opposition.[AC] |
POSITIVES - form seems to have been franked - Godolphin horses must always be respected
NEGATIVES - out to 2/1, 9/4 early morning with Pilalr of Hercules now 3/1 and threatening for favouratism
CONCLUSION - a no bet for me - I would slide towards Pillar of Hercules for the place
855 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Gemology, 5/1 New World Order, 10/1 Yab Adee, 12/1 Oat Cuisine, 14/1 Beech Games, Fair Sailing, 20/1 Mark Of The Fen, 25/1 Balanchine Moon, Pont Wood, Princess Danehill, 33/1 Wattys The Craic, 66/1 Lily La Belle, 100/1 I´m Agenius .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although GEMOLOGY proved a disappointment in an ordinary event in Dubai when last seen in February he had previously shown more than enough on his debut to suggest he has a race of this nature in him. He is bred to handle this surface and is taken to beat the exposed New World Order. [RY] |
POSITIVES - good price gap here
NEAGTIVES - all weather debut, up in trip, disappointed last time out , 204 day absence to overcome, maiden race, 3 debutants , and a coupel of horses open to improvement
CONCLUSION - will have to look at the betting nearer the off but there are enough negatives at preent to put me off Gemology
EACH WAY
A cracking place only lay system! BUT it's a backing system!
230 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Keycavern, 3/1 Dr McFab, 4/1 Hypnotic Vibes, 11/2 Marju´s Gold, 9/1 Majestic Chief, 12/1 Finlay´s Footsteps, 20/1 Goldan Jess, Royal Tender, 33/1 Salto Chico, 50/1 Wassendale.
A change of tack today -Marjus gold each way - going for more obvious ones and see how we progress
230 CURRAGH
Fleeting Shadow and Abraham Lincoln each way representing Weld/Smullen and O'Brien
135 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Perfect Act, 7/2 Relative Order, Winter Bloom, 6/1 Dubai Dynamo, 8/1 Huzzah, 10/1 Indian Days, Kersaint, 20/1 Higgy´s Boy, 50/1 Hansinger.
Dubai Dynamo eachw ay
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Kashoof, 4/1 Your Pleasure, 8/1 Barbary Boy, Mayaar, 10/1 Wavertree Princess, 12/1 Warden Fizz, 16/1 Karmei, 25/1 Ubiquitous Bounty, 66/1 Sistos Fascination .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting should give an idea of expectations for the newcomers, but KASHOOF sets a decent standard and her experience may well be a deciding factor.[FC] |
Your pleasure each way
825 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 War Of The Roses, 4/1 Master Nimbus, 6/1 Cragganmore Creek, 10/1 Andorran, Proud Scholar, Saameq, 14/1 Bowl Of Cherries, Investment Pearl, Royal Melbourne, 20/1 Lady Ambitious, Scott, 33/1 Francescas Boy.
Craganmore creek and Andorran each way
Thursday, 13 September 2007
13/9
Dresden Doll 20/1and Geestring 12/1 unplaced, Morinqua 11/1 unplaced, Seta Pura 13/2 and Trip the light 9/1 unplaced, Oxbridge 33/1 and Green earings 7/1 unplaced, Irving place 14/1 unplaced and Russian Reel 8/1 2nd, Bronze Cannon 33/1 and Landikyaya 14/1 unplaced, Gallant HEro 4th 10/1 and Gone tomorrow 5th 18/1, Chandlers Cross unplaced 9/2, Are you there 7th 18/1,
PRICE GAPS, My condor won well at a decent 11/8 (relative to usual prices on price gaps) - the early morning price gap in the live market proved the clincher. Ravarino came nowhere, and Iguazu Falls won as he should at 1/3
EACH WAY
It's becoming clear these speculative bets are, well, too speculative as we are not seeing a return. There's a couple of hard luck stories, I think it's now 2 25/1 2nds and a 20/1 2nd place, one of these in a photo which would have, naturally , added a whole different complexion to things. I will continue out if interests sake and see if I can tweak things. Outsiders do win, as seen by a 100/1 winner in, guess what?, a maiden. A look at the races I chose, and oftentimes, the favourites don't win.
230 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Barliffey, Confidence Trick, 5/1 We´Re Delighted, 10/1 Always Certain, Celt, 12/1 Saafend Geezer, 16/1 Talon, Zabeel Tiger, 20/1 Khana Ras, Maximus Aurelius, 25/1 Connor´s Choice, Seconds Out, 33/1 Avril Valley, Ray Diamond, Recoil, Restless Swallow.
A maiden with a number of newcomers. Barliffy with a couple of 2nds to his name looks great place only material. We're delighted is an obvious each way candidate. I am interested in the placings of Always Certain and Celt just after the 3 main protagonists each way.
300 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hampstead Heath, Tenjack King, 11/2 Stop On, 7/1 Black Jacari, 10/1 Tepee, 12/1 Addikt, 16/1 Downhiller, 20/1 Got Green, 25/1 Dancing Sword, 33/1 Captain Mainwaring, Graylyn Ruby, 50/1 Has To Be Abacus, Lancaster Lad, Orbital Orchid.
Another maiden, and as was seen yesterday, surprises do occur due to the profile of the race. A price gap of sorts between the main 2 protagonists at 5/2 and the 2nd fav at 11/2. Outsiders at 20/1 bar, and 5 horses in between who we can suggest may be competitive from a palce only perspective. One from the front and one from the back please Carole, I'll have Stop On and Addikt each way
410 CHESPTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Easterly Breeze, 11/2 Theta, 7/1 Meon Mix, Vivacita, 10/1 Berry Hill Lass, Hareem, Wroughton, 14/1 Apache Chant, 33/1 Icansingarainbow .
A clear market leader who has had 4 tries to lose the maiden tag, opeing up this race to good each way thievery Meon Mix and Apache Chant each way
550 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Drumming Party, 5/1 Talcen Gwyn, 11/2 Endless Summer, 7/1 Digital, 10/1 King Egbert, 12/1 One Way Ticket, Summer Recluse, 14/1 Hello Roberto, 16/1 Cerulean Rose, Decider, Maktavish, 20/1 Enjoy The Buzz, Whistler, 25/1 Ballybunion, Campeon .
5 furlong sprint handicap and anything could happen. One way ticket and Summer REcluse each way are both positioned outside of the top5
205 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Siberian Tiger, 8/1 Doctor Robert, 10/1 Cobo Bay, Crystal Rock, Ghetto, Jack Dawkins, The Betchworth Kid, 14/1 Blue Sky Basin, Determind Stand, 16/1 Annaliesse, Bonjour Allure, Ellemujie, 20/1 Dalkey Girl, Fathsta, Stubbs Art, Talk Of Saafend, Welcome Return, 25/1 Ernie Owl,
I didn't back Cobo BAy when he last ran simply because it was too obvious - Cobo Bay is a bay in Guernsey!. I will go for him this time along with Blue Sky Basin each way in a very competitive race
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Honky Tonk Sally, 9/2 Night Premiere, 5/1 Divine Power, 7/1 Blue Eyed Miss, 20/1 Ma Al Salamah, Mythical Fosroc, 25/1 Badoura, Kalligal, 33/1 Ava Gee, The Dragon, 40/1 Athboy Auction, Evenstorm, 66/1 Our Kally.
I will chance Ma Al Slamah and Mythical Fosroc each way to take advantage of any slip ups in the first 4 in the market
415 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Majority, 2/1 Ghimaar, 7/2 Seader, 14/1 Exploration, Mister Bannon, 20/1 Fair Dues, Jumbo Rio, 25/1 Drunken Sailor, Mask Of Conspiracy.
Exploration and Mister Bannon each way - 3 obvious contenders and another maiden race
645 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Equator, 4/1 Roundofapplause, 9/2 Better Than Jewels, 10/1 Eimear´s Beamer, Scolboakingofkings, 12/1 Cape Win, Last Warrior, Supreme Ruler, 14/1 Druid´s Chair, 16/1 Dont Jinx Me Johny, 20/1 Baguenaud, Calestes, Moscow Night, Star Jasmine, Tap On Nellie, 25/1 River D´Ocala, Where Art Thou, 33/1 Annephar, Cabb City, Katie´s World.
Another maiden hurdle and another short price favourite - again I will opt for the 10/1 shots in Eimear's Beamer and Scolboakingsofkings each way.
PRICE GAPS
An ok performance yesterday with My Condor winning although he didn't meet the strict template prvided by the likes of United Nations et al, and Izuagi Falls won at 1/3.
410 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Easterly Breeze, 11/2 Theta, 7/1 Meon Mix, Vivacita, 10/1 Berry Hill Lass, Hareem, Wroughton, 14/1 Apache Chant, 33/1 Icansingarainbow .
A decent price gap here, and a maiden race which is not ideal. The market leader has had 4 runs and has finished 2nd in 2 of them.
Easterly Breeze Fair form in four starts to date (latest Ripon run franked by Double Doors, who won handicap off 78 at Haydock yesterday) and the highest of those with an official rating; leaves the impression that step up to this trip will suit (backed up by pedigree) and looks the one to beat.
One thing to note is the morning price gap which shows a main market rival in Theta who is at 9/2 at present
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Honky Tonk Sally, 9/2 Night Premiere, 5/1 Divine Power, 7/1 Blue Eyed Miss, 20/1 Ma Al Salamah, Mythical Fosroc, 25/1 Badoura, Kalligal, 33/1 Ava Gee, The Dragon, 40/1 Athboy Auction, Evenstorm, 66/1 Our Kally .
A decent enough price gap but yet another maiden race.
Honky Tonk Sally Related to winners at 1m/1m4f but not been lasting home over 6f, in above-average Newmarket maidens first two outings and Lowther latest (out of depth); obvious chance to get off the mark in this company and has the speed to make the most of good draw.
Not a rock solid proposition for me and,again, looking at the morning prices, Blue eyed miss is now 4/1 offering some rivalry to the market leader. Remember My Condor yesterday,, the price gap was vindicated, and even improved, in the early morning market
325 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bygone Days, 4/1 Thousand Words, 5/1 Racer Forever, 7/1 Jack Sullivan, 11/1 Eisteddfod, 12/1 Assertive, 14/1 Vanderlin, 16/1 Ivory Lace, 20/1 Royal Power, 40/1 Tiana .
We can take a chance here I think ,ready preference ( and less risk , meaning less return) on the place
755 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Choisette, 6/1 Paddy Jack, Richardthesecond, 8/1 Bahamarama, 10/1 Speedy Senorita, 12/1 Orpen´s Art, 14/1 Diademas, 20/1 Baytown Blaze, Maracana Boy, 25/1 Frizzini, Myriola, Only In Jest, Rightcar Ellie .
Hardened into 11/10 as I write with next best at 6/1, a 13 runner nursery is perhaps not the ideal betting medium, which is why, I suppose, we can get a relatively good price odds against
PRICE GAPS, My condor won well at a decent 11/8 (relative to usual prices on price gaps) - the early morning price gap in the live market proved the clincher. Ravarino came nowhere, and Iguazu Falls won as he should at 1/3
EACH WAY
It's becoming clear these speculative bets are, well, too speculative as we are not seeing a return. There's a couple of hard luck stories, I think it's now 2 25/1 2nds and a 20/1 2nd place, one of these in a photo which would have, naturally , added a whole different complexion to things. I will continue out if interests sake and see if I can tweak things. Outsiders do win, as seen by a 100/1 winner in, guess what?, a maiden. A look at the races I chose, and oftentimes, the favourites don't win.
230 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Barliffey, Confidence Trick, 5/1 We´Re Delighted, 10/1 Always Certain, Celt, 12/1 Saafend Geezer, 16/1 Talon, Zabeel Tiger, 20/1 Khana Ras, Maximus Aurelius, 25/1 Connor´s Choice, Seconds Out, 33/1 Avril Valley, Ray Diamond, Recoil, Restless Swallow.
A maiden with a number of newcomers. Barliffy with a couple of 2nds to his name looks great place only material. We're delighted is an obvious each way candidate. I am interested in the placings of Always Certain and Celt just after the 3 main protagonists each way.
300 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hampstead Heath, Tenjack King, 11/2 Stop On, 7/1 Black Jacari, 10/1 Tepee, 12/1 Addikt, 16/1 Downhiller, 20/1 Got Green, 25/1 Dancing Sword, 33/1 Captain Mainwaring, Graylyn Ruby, 50/1 Has To Be Abacus, Lancaster Lad, Orbital Orchid.
Another maiden, and as was seen yesterday, surprises do occur due to the profile of the race. A price gap of sorts between the main 2 protagonists at 5/2 and the 2nd fav at 11/2. Outsiders at 20/1 bar, and 5 horses in between who we can suggest may be competitive from a palce only perspective. One from the front and one from the back please Carole, I'll have Stop On and Addikt each way
410 CHESPTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Easterly Breeze, 11/2 Theta, 7/1 Meon Mix, Vivacita, 10/1 Berry Hill Lass, Hareem, Wroughton, 14/1 Apache Chant, 33/1 Icansingarainbow .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little strength in depth. Money for any of the newcomers will be signficant but this looks best left to EASTERLY BREEZE, who has shaped well on turf and who will be well suited by the step up to this trip.[RY] |
550 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Drumming Party, 5/1 Talcen Gwyn, 11/2 Endless Summer, 7/1 Digital, 10/1 King Egbert, 12/1 One Way Ticket, Summer Recluse, 14/1 Hello Roberto, 16/1 Cerulean Rose, Decider, Maktavish, 20/1 Enjoy The Buzz, Whistler, 25/1 Ballybunion, Campeon .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The strong finisher ENDLESS SUMMER possesses a winning attitude and gets the vote after a string of decent runs, including here. The probable dangers include Talcen Gwyn and Drumming Party.[BDO] |
5 furlong sprint handicap and anything could happen. One way ticket and Summer REcluse each way are both positioned outside of the top5
205 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Siberian Tiger, 8/1 Doctor Robert, 10/1 Cobo Bay, Crystal Rock, Ghetto, Jack Dawkins, The Betchworth Kid, 14/1 Blue Sky Basin, Determind Stand, 16/1 Annaliesse, Bonjour Allure, Ellemujie, 20/1 Dalkey Girl, Fathsta, Stubbs Art, Talk Of Saafend, Welcome Return, 25/1 Ernie Owl,
I didn't back Cobo BAy when he last ran simply because it was too obvious - Cobo Bay is a bay in Guernsey!. I will go for him this time along with Blue Sky Basin each way in a very competitive race
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Honky Tonk Sally, 9/2 Night Premiere, 5/1 Divine Power, 7/1 Blue Eyed Miss, 20/1 Ma Al Salamah, Mythical Fosroc, 25/1 Badoura, Kalligal, 33/1 Ava Gee, The Dragon, 40/1 Athboy Auction, Evenstorm, 66/1 Our Kally.
I will chance Ma Al Slamah and Mythical Fosroc each way to take advantage of any slip ups in the first 4 in the market
415 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Majority, 2/1 Ghimaar, 7/2 Seader, 14/1 Exploration, Mister Bannon, 20/1 Fair Dues, Jumbo Rio, 25/1 Drunken Sailor, Mask Of Conspiracy.
Exploration and Mister Bannon each way - 3 obvious contenders and another maiden race
645 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Equator, 4/1 Roundofapplause, 9/2 Better Than Jewels, 10/1 Eimear´s Beamer, Scolboakingofkings, 12/1 Cape Win, Last Warrior, Supreme Ruler, 14/1 Druid´s Chair, 16/1 Dont Jinx Me Johny, 20/1 Baguenaud, Calestes, Moscow Night, Star Jasmine, Tap On Nellie, 25/1 River D´Ocala, Where Art Thou, 33/1 Annephar, Cabb City, Katie´s World.
Another maiden hurdle and another short price favourite - again I will opt for the 10/1 shots in Eimear's Beamer and Scolboakingsofkings each way.
PRICE GAPS
An ok performance yesterday with My Condor winning although he didn't meet the strict template prvided by the likes of United Nations et al, and Izuagi Falls won at 1/3.
410 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Easterly Breeze, 11/2 Theta, 7/1 Meon Mix, Vivacita, 10/1 Berry Hill Lass, Hareem, Wroughton, 14/1 Apache Chant, 33/1 Icansingarainbow .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little strength in depth. Money for any of the newcomers will be signficant but this looks best left to EASTERLY BREEZE, who has shaped well on turf and who will be well suited by the step up to this trip |
A decent price gap here, and a maiden race which is not ideal. The market leader has had 4 runs and has finished 2nd in 2 of them.
Easterly Breeze
One thing to note is the morning price gap which shows a main market rival in Theta who is at 9/2 at present
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Honky Tonk Sally, 9/2 Night Premiere, 5/1 Divine Power, 7/1 Blue Eyed Miss, 20/1 Ma Al Salamah, Mythical Fosroc, 25/1 Badoura, Kalligal, 33/1 Ava Gee, The Dragon, 40/1 Athboy Auction, Evenstorm, 66/1 Our Kally .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The form principals are all dropping down from 6f. HONKY TONK SALLY faces her easiest assignment to date and should be equal to the task with Divine Power probably the one to give her most to do |
A decent enough price gap but yet another maiden race.
Honky Tonk Sally
Not a rock solid proposition for me and,again, looking at the morning prices, Blue eyed miss is now 4/1 offering some rivalry to the market leader. Remember My Condor yesterday,, the price gap was vindicated, and even improved, in the early morning market
325 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bygone Days, 4/1 Thousand Words, 5/1 Racer Forever, 7/1 Jack Sullivan, 11/1 Eisteddfod, 12/1 Assertive, 14/1 Vanderlin, 16/1 Ivory Lace, 20/1 Royal Power, 40/1 Tiana .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BYGONE DAYS (nap) looked back to something very close to his best when a close third in a Goodwood Group 3 last time and is the one to beat. Thousand Words has an uneven look to his form this season but is entitled to go very well if back to his peak and is readily preferred as the best alternative. [MCu] |
We can take a chance here I think ,ready preference ( and less risk , meaning less return) on the place
755 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Choisette, 6/1 Paddy Jack, Richardthesecond, 8/1 Bahamarama, 10/1 Speedy Senorita, 12/1 Orpen´s Art, 14/1 Diademas, 20/1 Baytown Blaze, Maracana Boy, 25/1 Frizzini, Myriola, Only In Jest, Rightcar Ellie .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of interesting runners but the one to appeal most is CHOISETTE (nap), who is ideally drawn for one that races up with the pace and whose second to a previous winner (pair clear) on her AW debut last week gives her a leading form chance off tonight's 2lb lower mark. [RY] |
Wednesday, 12 September 2007
12/9
I had Gloucester and Littlejim bob in the 330 yesterday and stopped when I hit a winner . Poor results overall yesterday with not many placed.
On the price gap front Ibn Khaldun won as she liked under Frankie at unappetising odds of 1/2 - 4/9 at the off, but a win's a win. Lor d of Dreams was unplaced - and Wassily KAndisnsky just couldn't get her head in front.
Too many price gappers from maiden races and I really don't like to get involved in these as the strike rate for favs is poor in these race types - there are too many imponderables as well.
On to today
EACH WAY
240 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Cristal Clear, 7/1 Royal Confidence, 15/2 Crystany, 9/1 Anosti, 10/1 Geestring, 12/1 Close To Paradise, Hawk Eyed Lady, Serena´s Storm, Sophie´s Girl, 14/1 Dresden Doll, La Chicaluna, 16/1 Kay Es Jay, Mey Blossom, 20/1 Broken Applause, 25/1 Bohobe, Jennifers Joy, Miss Firefly, 33/1 Miss Bootylishes, 40/1 Leading Edge, 200/1 Amazing Spirit,
Plenty in with chances so says Spotlight - I will chance Dresden Doll and Geestring each way
420 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Drayton, 5/1 Green Manalishi, 11/2 Hogmaneigh, Peace Offering, 13/2 Galeota, 7/1 Conquest, 8/1 Morinqua, Pivotal´s Princess, 14/1 Perfect Paula.
What a tight betting heat this promises to be. i will swerve those at the head of the market and go with Morinqua - a horse I have followed and a real speed merchant
200 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Ballochroy, 100/30 Love Valentine, 5/1 Boy Blue, 6/1 Maryqueenofscots, 8/1 Incarnation, 10/1 Seta Pura, Trip The Light, 14/1 Potemkin, 33/1 Blindspin, Ugly Betty, 66/1 Halton Castle .
Not much to go in so some speculation can be allowed - Seta Pura and Trip the light look positioned to be competitive for a place in another very tricky maiden where the price market is key
230 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bonny Rose, 15/8 Copperwood, 9/2 All The Aces, 10/1 Green Earrings, 14/1 Oxbridge, 25/1 Better In Heaven, Feeling Fresh, 33/1 Brasingaman Hifive, Love Cat, Pentandra, 50/1 Warsaw Waltz .
With the first 3 fill the first 3 places in the final placings? I'm betting against it with Green Earrings and Oxbridge each way - both lodged between the fancies and the outsiders. this is another maiden race so is open to surprises
335 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Chatham Islands, 7/2 Craggy Cat, 11/2 Perfect Flight, 8/1 Ridge Wood Dani, 10/1 Irving Place, Russian Reel, 14/1 Fyodorovich, Stage Acclaim, 16/1 Brixworth Scribe, Narmeen, Rievaulx Valentino, 25/1 The Real Guru, 100/1 Falcon Speed,
A big field nursery and a chance on some outsiders in Irving Place and Russian Reel each way, again positioned near the head of the market
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Iguazu Falls, 8/1 Charmel´s Lad, 10/1 Bronze Cannon, 12/1 Oarsman, 14/1 Landikhaya, 16/1 Prime Aspiration, Southern Mistral, 20/1 Haydens Mark, 25/1 Earlsmedic, Special Branch Ami, 33/1 Distant Diamond, 40/1 Autumn Blades, 100/1 Pure Scandal .
A 1/3 shot will make it into the PRICE GAPS but is not a backable price. Only one run out representing Godolphin, this one should win, but worth including Bronze Cannon and Landikyaya incase it doesnt run as a 1/3 shot should
215 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Levitski, 100/30 The Sliotar, 9/2 Prince De Bersy, 6/1 Willie Pep, 10/1 Gallant Hero, Gone Tomorrow, 14/1 The Saltire Tiger, Thehonourablelady, 16/1 Pencil House, Whistle Blowing, 25/1 Kilrossanty, 33/1 Viennchee Run, 100/1 Evelith Princess, Oat Hill, The Gerry Man, 200/1 My Rocket.
Gallant HEro and Gone tomorrow each way
325 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Last Pioneer, 6/1 It´s News To Me, 7/1 Chandlers Cross, 15/2 Taras Knight, 10/1 Chunky Lad, Elaala, Smart Minister, 14/1 Are You There, Backlash, Princess Aimee, 20/1 Ceredig, 33/1 Bold Pursuit, Bouzouki, High Seasons, New Wish, 50/1 Mind That Fox, Night Reveller, Von Wessex .
A selling hurdle so I'll be chancing Chandlers Cross near the head of the market and Are you there just before the outsiders
PRICE GAPS
530 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ravarino, 11/2 Parisian Dream, 13/2 Hassaad, Lemonette, 7/1 Soft Morning, 14/1 Buccellati, Nawamees, Resonate, 20/1 Collateral Damage, Lucayan Dancer, 25/1 Along The Nile, Blue Spinnaker, 33/1 Fusili, Lisathedaddy .
POSITIVES - ok price gap and napped by spotlight - progressive -
NEGATIVES - not a palmetto or Ibn Khundun kind of price gap
No mention of " will be very hard to beat" etc by Spotlight
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Iguazu Falls, 8/1 Charmel´s Lad, 10/1 Bronze Cannon, 12/1 Oarsman, 14/1 Landikhaya, 16/1 Prime Aspiration, Southern Mistral, 20/1 Haydens Mark, 25/1 Earlsmedic, Special Branch Ami, 33/1 Distant Diamond, 40/1 Autumn Blades, 100/1 Pure Scandal .
Likely to go off 1/3 -no thanks
POSITIVES - very prominent price gap - ideal really - expected to win by connections
NEGATIVES - valueless price for a one time out maiden ,favourite purely on reputation.Plenty of improvers and a big field maiden. Also unbackable price for the race type
250 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 My Condor, 6/1 Star Galaxy, 13/2 Yankee Holiday, 8/1 Jefertiti, 10/1 Meltonian, Nesnaas, Royal Master, Schinken Otto, 12/1 Gipsy Cricketer, 14/1 Dream On Maggie, 25/1 Pure Brief, 33/1 Macgyver .
POSITIVES - ahead of the handicapper, slight price gap - in the early market the price gap is better at 7/4 - - - 5/1
NEGATIVES - not strictly a price gap qualifier, no "hard to beat etc" , form of 321 -can he keep it up in handicap company.
CONCLUSION - one to note for me, and probably a good place only option
The real price gappers have been conspicuous by their absence today - Ibn Khundun fit in with the kind of profile I want to see, but we then pay the price by it going off at 4/9! So look through previous blogs and note, Palmetto Point, United Nations, Dylan Thomas, Ibn Khundun if you really want to see what I'd like to see from a price gap candidate
On the price gap front Ibn Khaldun won as she liked under Frankie at unappetising odds of 1/2 - 4/9 at the off, but a win's a win. Lor d of Dreams was unplaced - and Wassily KAndisnsky just couldn't get her head in front.
Too many price gappers from maiden races and I really don't like to get involved in these as the strike rate for favs is poor in these race types - there are too many imponderables as well.
On to today
EACH WAY
240 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Cristal Clear, 7/1 Royal Confidence, 15/2 Crystany, 9/1 Anosti, 10/1 Geestring, 12/1 Close To Paradise, Hawk Eyed Lady, Serena´s Storm, Sophie´s Girl, 14/1 Dresden Doll, La Chicaluna, 16/1 Kay Es Jay, Mey Blossom, 20/1 Broken Applause, 25/1 Bohobe, Jennifers Joy, Miss Firefly, 33/1 Miss Bootylishes, 40/1 Leading Edge, 200/1 Amazing Spirit,
Plenty in with chances so says Spotlight - I will chance Dresden Doll and Geestring each way
420 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Drayton, 5/1 Green Manalishi, 11/2 Hogmaneigh, Peace Offering, 13/2 Galeota, 7/1 Conquest, 8/1 Morinqua, Pivotal´s Princess, 14/1 Perfect Paula.
What a tight betting heat this promises to be. i will swerve those at the head of the market and go with Morinqua - a horse I have followed and a real speed merchant
200 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Ballochroy, 100/30 Love Valentine, 5/1 Boy Blue, 6/1 Maryqueenofscots, 8/1 Incarnation, 10/1 Seta Pura, Trip The Light, 14/1 Potemkin, 33/1 Blindspin, Ugly Betty, 66/1 Halton Castle .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a great deal to go on and the betting should provide some clues, particularly Mark Johnston's newcomer Love Valentine, but BALLOCHROY, with experience behind him and probably more to come, may be the better proposition on this occasion.[FC] |
Not much to go in so some speculation can be allowed - Seta Pura and Trip the light look positioned to be competitive for a place in another very tricky maiden where the price market is key
230 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bonny Rose, 15/8 Copperwood, 9/2 All The Aces, 10/1 Green Earrings, 14/1 Oxbridge, 25/1 Better In Heaven, Feeling Fresh, 33/1 Brasingaman Hifive, Love Cat, Pentandra, 50/1 Warsaw Waltz .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BONNY ROSE (nap) did really well to divide a couple of fair sorts at Redcar last month and she has plenty going for her over a trip which should suit. Copperwood looks next best of those with experience, though All The Aces is an interesting newcomer.[EMW] |
With the first 3 fill the first 3 places in the final placings? I'm betting against it with Green Earrings and Oxbridge each way - both lodged between the fancies and the outsiders. this is another maiden race so is open to surprises
335 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Chatham Islands, 7/2 Craggy Cat, 11/2 Perfect Flight, 8/1 Ridge Wood Dani, 10/1 Irving Place, Russian Reel, 14/1 Fyodorovich, Stage Acclaim, 16/1 Brixworth Scribe, Narmeen, Rievaulx Valentino, 25/1 The Real Guru, 100/1 Falcon Speed,
A big field nursery and a chance on some outsiders in Irving Place and Russian Reel each way, again positioned near the head of the market
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Iguazu Falls, 8/1 Charmel´s Lad, 10/1 Bronze Cannon, 12/1 Oarsman, 14/1 Landikhaya, 16/1 Prime Aspiration, Southern Mistral, 20/1 Haydens Mark, 25/1 Earlsmedic, Special Branch Ami, 33/1 Distant Diamond, 40/1 Autumn Blades, 100/1 Pure Scandal .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IGUAZU FALLS holds plenty of fancy entries in the next few weeks and connections will be disappointed if he cannot get off the mark. Bronze Cannon and Charmel's Lad look the main dangers, but they will probably have to settle for minor honours if the selection is at his best. |
215 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Levitski, 100/30 The Sliotar, 9/2 Prince De Bersy, 6/1 Willie Pep, 10/1 Gallant Hero, Gone Tomorrow, 14/1 The Saltire Tiger, Thehonourablelady, 16/1 Pencil House, Whistle Blowing, 25/1 Kilrossanty, 33/1 Viennchee Run, 100/1 Evelith Princess, Oat Hill, The Gerry Man, 200/1 My Rocket.
Gallant HEro and Gone tomorrow each way
325 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Last Pioneer, 6/1 It´s News To Me, 7/1 Chandlers Cross, 15/2 Taras Knight, 10/1 Chunky Lad, Elaala, Smart Minister, 14/1 Are You There, Backlash, Princess Aimee, 20/1 Ceredig, 33/1 Bold Pursuit, Bouzouki, High Seasons, New Wish, 50/1 Mind That Fox, Night Reveller, Von Wessex .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It remains to be seen what LAST PIONEER would find in a scrap but it might not come to that in this company if he's firing on all cylinders after a break.[AWJ] |
A selling hurdle so I'll be chancing Chandlers Cross near the head of the market and Are you there just before the outsiders
PRICE GAPS
530 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ravarino, 11/2 Parisian Dream, 13/2 Hassaad, Lemonette, 7/1 Soft Morning, 14/1 Buccellati, Nawamees, Resonate, 20/1 Collateral Damage, Lucayan Dancer, 25/1 Along The Nile, Blue Spinnaker, 33/1 Fusili, Lisathedaddy .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The progressive 3yos could be the ones to concentrate on and RAVARINO (nap), who is getting her act together of late, makes the most appeal. She is the type to progress again for current connections and is a proven performer over this distance. [RY] |
POSITIVES - ok price gap and napped by spotlight - progressive -
NEGATIVES - not a palmetto or Ibn Khundun kind of price gap
No mention of " will be very hard to beat" etc by Spotlight
650 KEMPTON
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IGUAZU FALLS holds plenty of fancy entries in the next few weeks and connections will be disappointed if he cannot get off the mark. Bronze Cannon and Charmel's Lad look the main dangers, but they will probably have to settle for minor honours if the selection is at his best |
Likely to go off 1/3 -no thanks
POSITIVES - very prominent price gap - ideal really - expected to win by connections
NEGATIVES - valueless price for a one time out maiden ,favourite purely on reputation.Plenty of improvers and a big field maiden. Also unbackable price for the race type
250 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 My Condor, 6/1 Star Galaxy, 13/2 Yankee Holiday, 8/1 Jefertiti, 10/1 Meltonian, Nesnaas, Royal Master, Schinken Otto, 12/1 Gipsy Cricketer, 14/1 Dream On Maggie, 25/1 Pure Brief, 33/1 Macgyver .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The presence of other potential front-runners is a worry but MY CONDOR looked a very different horse after his wind operation at Cartmel and could still be ahead of the handicapper, despite a 13lb rise.[AWJ] |
POSITIVES - ahead of the handicapper, slight price gap - in the early market the price gap is better at 7/4 - - - 5/1
NEGATIVES - not strictly a price gap qualifier, no "hard to beat etc" , form of 321 -can he keep it up in handicap company.
CONCLUSION - one to note for me, and probably a good place only option
The real price gappers have been conspicuous by their absence today - Ibn Khundun fit in with the kind of profile I want to see, but we then pay the price by it going off at 4/9! So look through previous blogs and note, Palmetto Point, United Nations, Dylan Thomas, Ibn Khundun if you really want to see what I'd like to see from a price gap candidate
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