30/9

*****ONE A DAY - 805pm - Palermo v Lausanne - Back Palermo at 1.22 in the match odds*****

Looks like Seria A v Swiss Division 2 here. Any semblance of a first team will suffice.





Easy for Big Issue. Barca did not win. But it was an enhanced bet once 1-0 down ( backable at 4 and layable at 2 once equalising)
Key lesson from yesterday was team news. Werder fielding a very weak team meant the Inter price was justified and, guess what, another over 2.5 goals Werder game.
For night owls, Joe Public lost 5-1 in the early hours, and yet another 2 year old ( Parlour games) failed to give his running as the market mover highlighted in the message won.

6pm- CSKA Moscow v Sparta Prague - 1.49 home - difficult to weigh up from their prospective league form. Both on good runs form wise. Correct score 2 market on Betfair optimistic? Asians start at +1.
6pm - CSKA Sofia v Porto - 1.55 away - 10 game winning streak for Porto, includes comprehensive defeat of Genk, who are dominating Belgian football. 2,2,3,3,2,4,3,3 goals scored by Porto in their last 8 matches.
Have won all 4 away matches this season.
Poor performance against Cliftonville Belfast might signal a tougher time against Porto tonight.
WLLDWDWWDLWL - a mixed bag for Sofia.+0.5 to +1 asian handicaps signals caution from Porto backers tonight.
6pm -Paris St-G v Karpaty - 1.47 home - France v Ukraine - we would assume the French league is the better equipped? The only pattern I can see is in Karpaty's last 5 games there have been 4,5,3,7,5 goals.
6pm - Sampdoria v Debrecen - 1.22 home - Sampdoria have only lost 1 of their last 7 matches , but, worryingly, 4 of their last 5 matches have been draws.
They are ultra low due to their opponents' league - the Hungarian League.
Debrecen have lost 3 of their last 4 matches, conceding 4,5,3 so now is perhaps the time to meet them.
Asians begin at +1.5 so are ideally expecting a 2+ goal win for Samp.
Last 2 Samp draws have been 0-0 - they are priced to end this sequence tonight.

6pm - Zenit St Petersburg v AEK - 1.34 home - 1-0 and 1-1 against Dundee United perhaps tells you the likely gulf between Zenit and AEK and a justification for the 1.34 match odds.
AEK are an uncharacteristic Greek side in that their recent games include goals! 4,4,4,2,1,3 in their last 6 matches.
Zenit have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5, but their abilities were perhaps exposed by 2-0 defeat to Auxerre recently in the Champions League. After that match, Zenit have scored 3,2,3,0,6 so are in good order. Expect the Greeks to struggle in Russia.
805pm - Palermo v Lausanne - 1.22 home - Seria A v Swiss league Division 2 - hence the odds. Palermo have scored 2,3,1,2,2 in their last 5 matches, the 1,2,2 came in defeats!! In the midst of these, they beat Juventus away 3-1 and only lost 2-1 to Inter Milan.
Well equipped, I would say, of bringing home the odds against a team from a very uncompetitive Swiss league Division 2.
Palermo were unbeaten at home in Seria A last season and this Division 2 Swiss side should be found out. They must be in the Europa League because they won the Toblerone Cup in Switzerland.
Compelling argument to back Palermo tonight on the proviso they actually want a run in the Europa League. They have already lost this season at home, albeit to Inter Milan after taking the lead.
805pm - Sp Lisbon v Levski Sofia - 1.47 home - Levski are undoubtedly in confident form, winning their last 7 on the bounce and unbeaten in 8., scoring 2,3,3,4,3,2,2,3 in the process.
Sporting have only socred 1 in their last 3 matches in contrast. You would suspect the Bulgarian league to be weaker than the Portugeuse, but there's no accounting for confidence (Levski) v doubt ( only 1 scored in last 3 matches for Sporting)
805pm - Villarreal v Club Brugge - 1.38 home - La Liga v Belgian league.
Villareal's only defeat at home in their last 12 was against Barcelona.
HAve won last 3 matches.
LWWDDWW for Brugge in their last 7 matches ( latest first) but how strong are their Belgian opponents?

TENNIS
Thailand Open
1pm Nadal v Bemelmansm - 1.02 but 1.1 in 2-0 set betting for Rafa.

210 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sahafh, 7/2 Sally Friday, 11/2 Undulant Way, 7/1 Port Hollow, 10/1 Janicellaine, 12/1 Desert Shine, 16/1 Delphi Dream, 20/1 Gainsboroughs Best, 33/1 Last Act, 50/1 Miss T, Mrs Neat.

DIOMED VERDICT: UNDULANT WAY was behind Sally Friday recently but might be able to progress past her.

Sahafh reared up in the stalls like the Madame she is. Durcan/Godolphin so make amends today? Faith this time in a 2 year old maiden filly.

255 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Scantily Clad, 5/2 Heartbreak, 7/1 Novabridge, 12/1 Rothesay Chancer, 14/1 Misty Morn, 20/1 Press Release, Saxonette,

DIOMED VERDICT: This could be between SCANTILY CLAD and Heartbreak, with preference for the former, who looks more than capable of making an impact from his opening mark of 70.

Nursery ( 2 year old handicap) over 5 furlongs and good to soft ground.

Scantily clad the starting point in a 7 runner race for still 3 places.

310 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Harris Tweed, 100/30 Ship´s Biscuit, 6/1 Ted Spread, 7/1 Prizefighting, 9/1 Moose Moran, 12/1 Western Pearl, 16/1 Snoqualmie Star, 50/1 L Frank Baum.

DIOMED VERDICT: HARRIS TWEED ran away with a Listed race on soft last time and is the one to beat.

Price gappers in listed races must be respected. 10/11 - - - - -5/1

Impressive win on soft last time out, is this good to soft actually soft enough?

345 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 The Paddyman, 3/1 Royal Exchange, 7/2 Zaidan, 15/2 Casual Glimpse, 17/2 Surrey Star, 11/1 Rerouted, 16/1 Ahlaain, 20/1 Belgian Bill.

DIOMED VERDICT: ROYAL EXCHANGE can win again.

Absence of 3rd favourite makes this betting market difficult to read.

Royal Exchange is now favourite for Hughes/Hannon and form of 22111 - but winning runs will end soon - BUT will that preclude the horse from finishing in the first 3 as we want?

355 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Cadore, 7/2 Labarinto, 15/2 Dressing Room, 9/1 Perfect Mission, 10/1 Kepler´s Law, Pasquino, 11/1 Red Mercury, 16/1 Jelyvator, 20/1 Spirit Of Gondree, 28/1 Ferruccio, 33/1 Easydoesit, Hawridge Knight, 50/1 Cadmium Loch, Cliffords Reprieve.

DIOMED VERDICT: CADORE sets quite a decent standard on his latest improved Yarmouth maiden second.

Only 2 under 12/1 here - Cadore the one of interest - group entries. Labarinto to obvious value alternative.

535 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Zip Lock, 11/2 La Kalam, 13/2 Safwaan, 10/1 Maid To Dream, 12/1 Boldly Go, 14/1 Hippique, Room For A View, Sunset Kitty, 16/1 Chris´s Ridge, 25/1 Clear Praise, Sonnellino, Supatov, 50/1 Wet Feet,

DIOMED VERDICT: Zip Lock has obvious claims but LA KALAM will be suited by the drop back to 7f and has bagged the best draw.

A few defectors in this maiden. Zip lock the obvious starting point for Richard Hughes with a good 2nd at Lingfield latest.
Only 3 under 14/1 and odds on at present.

700 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Astral Flower, Wulfrida, 6/1 Sarbola, 7/1 Miss Kingwood, Sophies Trophy, 10/1 Treacle Tart, 14/1 Annuity, 25/1 Charpoy Cobra, Epsom Girl, 33/1 Alhudhud, Justazippy, 100/1 Les Andelys.

DIOMED VERDICT: The capable ASTRAL FLOWER will handle conditions and is worth another chance.

Surely not another 2nd for Astral Flower - ultra consistent in maidens ( form of 32222)

SHORTLIST
6pm - CSKA Sofia v Porto - 1.55 away - simply based on very strong current form for Porto.
6pm -Paris St-G v Karpaty - 1.47 home - over 1.5 goals perhaps? 1.31 , given Karpaty's liking for goal laden games recently.
6pm - Sampdoria v Debrecen - 1.22 home - time for Sampdoria to break the 0-0 and draw hoodoo against a side being royally spanked in an inferior league of late
6pm - Zenit St Petersburg v AEK - 1.34 home - a struggle for AEK likely? Perhaps, again, given their goals, over 1.5 goals again? 1.25 or faith in Zenit at home.
805pm - Palermo v Lausanne - 1.22 home - looks standout this evening - Swiss league 2, and a Palermo side very impressive against Juventus recently.Palermo have ability to score. Depends on attitude to the Europa League ( and that goes for all shorties tonight)

TENNIS
Thailand Open
1pm Nadal v Bemelmansm - 1.02 but 1.1 in 2-0 set betting for Rafa.

310 NEWMARKET - significant price gappers, especially in Class 1 listed races, must be acknowledged, more so if they are all red, and shortened to 10/11 with next best 5/1 - 1.2 to place
700 KEMPTON - faith in Astral Flowers to place at least tonight? 1.5 is pretty big at home of writing, albeit in an illiquid market.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - CSKA Sofia v Porto - 1.55 away - maybe better to lay CSKA Sofia? Or back Porto and trade out if they lead at any stage.
6pm - Sampdoria v Debrecen - 1.22 home - Debrecen have lost 3 of last 4, conceding 4,5,3, so can we expect Sampdoria to break their 0-0, 0-0 recent sequence . Looks like they are playing Debrecen at the right time. Probably not a one a day as the draws stand out for Samp recently
805pm - Palermo v Lausanne - 1.22 home - am I missing anything? Seria A v Swiss League Division 2.

Tennis - probably out of the scope of the timing of this message but Nadal should handle this in straight sets?

310 NEWMARKET - straight 8 and 3 places makes this appealing. HArris Tweed has been solidly backed already into all red 10/11. 1.2 (ish to place) we always have the niggle in class 1 listed races that all 7 opponents are there on merit ( see Red Jazz 25/1 photo 2nd in a recent listed race!!)








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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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29/09

Real Madrid are doing just enough under the Special One.
Great result for Bayern. I just thought that price was way too big against a Swiss side. Bastien Schweinsteiger is definitely on my Christmas Card list.

3pm - Croatia U17 v Bulgaria U17 - 1.59 home - 2-0 in 2007 - Croatia have drawn 3 of their last 4 and only won one of their last 7.
Bulgaria have lost their last 4,
5pm - Palestine v Iraq - 1.29 away - 4-0 and 3-0 to the Iraqis in friendlies and in another WAFF Championship game they won 1-0 in 2007. - Illiquid betting market. www.bet365.com is more liquid at 1.25 to Iraq.
Palestine have drawn 6 and lost 6 of their last 12 matches. This included the 2 defeats by Iraq on 10th and 14th July 2009.
At home, Palestine have played sparcely, losing 7 and drawing 1 since 2007.
Iraq beat Yemen on 25th September 2010 2-1.
Yemen beat Palestine 3-1 on 27th September 2010.
This indicates the odds for Iraq could be correct.
WWLWWWW recent form for Iraq, albeit mainly in friendlies.
LLDLLDLLD for Iraq away from home ( included 2 0-0's and 2 1-0's, and they played Spain and South Korea in World Cup friendlies)


530pm - Rubin Kazan v Barcelona - 1.73 away - 0-0 and 1-2 famous results for Rubin Kazan last Champions League (2009) surely a repeat will not be tolerated this time? Likely to play "shut out" again? Maybe we should learn from last year and back Barca and the 0-0 insurance cover bet?
Rubin's last 3 matches have been 1-0's ( 2 wins and a loss) so could play tight but unlikely to be free flowing goalscorers.
Rubin have won their last 7 matches at home .
Barca have won their 3 away league matches and have put to bed winning sequences by Athletico Madrid . They were 1.7 against Athl Bilbao and beat them 3-1 in what was expected to be a tough match.
Will they break this Rubin hoodoo?

745pm - Inter v W Bremen -1.51 home - still not convinced by the Fat Spanish Waiter at Inter, but he was adept in the Champions League at Liverpool, generally delivering the results required.
2-1 Werder and 1-1 draw in 2008 head to heads.
5,5,2,4,0,6 - the goals in Werder games this season.
Werder have conceded 2,4,2,2 in their last 4 matches. Their games are generally over 2.5 goals fodder.
Inter are surprisingly warm favourites here at 1.51 . They did score 2 against Twente away from home in their most recent Champions League fixture.
Tough one to call. Under 4.5 goals is 1.19 which is quite high.

745pm - Valencia v Man Utd - the form team in the Spanish League.Man Utd won a friendly 2-0 in 2009.
WDWWWW ( latest first) for Valencia this season. They have not played Real Madrid or Barca yet, but did beat Athletico Madrid.
Can we take anything from their summer friendlies? 0-0 at Villa and 2-0 loss at Man City.
United v Rangers - United put an insultingly poor side out against Rangers and paid the price with a draw in a game they should have won. This arrogance should ensure a strong team tonight.
United are unbeaten this season and full of goals in the league.
2,3,3,3,2,3 in the league this season.
745pm - Rangers v Bursaspor- 2 of the weakest sides in their group meet. The Rangers result against Man Utd was more down to Old Red Nose's arrogance in putting a weak team out, than any shut out job by Rangers.
Bursaspor were beaten 4-0 by Valencia. What can we gauge from this?
3am - Santos Laguna v Joe Public FC - 1.19 home - I think this is concacaf champions league and Mexican home side v Trinidad and Tobago side. 5-2 to Santos in recent head to heads.
Santos have won 10 and drawn 2 of their last 12 at home in all competitions.
LDD for Joe Public in their CHampions League matches. The 5-2 Santos result was as recently as August 2010 and was away from home. The 1.19 looks right but I don't know the proper price as this is an illiquid market with so long til kick off.

200 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Chain Lightning, 100/30 Discoteca, 15/2 Argocat, 8/1 Violet Ray, 9/1 Blue Dazzler, 10/1 Census, 12/1 Kadoodd, 20/1 Great Shot, Salaamie, 28/1 Dixie Land Band, Smart George, 40/1 Drumadoon, Sum Satisfaction.

DIOMED VERDICT: CHAIN LIGHTNING (nap) sets quite a useful standard on his second placings behind decent winners in 7f maidens of late and can gain a deserved first win. Discoteca may pose most problems.

Yesterday's 2 year old had a viable excuse for underperforming - and that was that he did not handle Brighton as I flagged up.
Chain lightning was a head 2nd last time out. This Hannon/Hughes 2 year old is yet another market leader with deceptively comforting form of 22 in last 2 runs, but we have seen that we are stilling putting our faith in 2 year olds.

Analysis of last run

"Chain Lightning improved from his debut, when he started slowly, to finish runner-up in a fair 7f maiden atEpsom in July. He set a fair standard and his rider tried to make his experience count by jumping him out and dictating the gallop. He could not hold off the winner´s challenge but battled back under pressure and should not have to wait too long to get off the mark".

210 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Parlour Games, 9/4 Jalors, 5/1 El Torbellino, Good Boy Jackson, 16/1 Blue Ronnie, 33/1 Copt Hill, Diamond City, Smirfys Emerald, 66/1 Willow´s Wish, 100/1 Good Faith.

DIOMED VERDICT: PARLOUR GAMES shaped well on his debut, is open to improvement and, unlike his main market rival Jalors is proven in soft ground.

Another maiden and 2 year olds meet soft ground. Parlour games, as mentioned above, is used to the soft, albeit from a solitary run.

This is a race where only 4 of the 8 are under 25/1

230 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Zain Shamardal, 4/1 Carlton House, 15/2 Danceyourselfdizzy, 17/2 Lejaam, 10/1 Albert Bridge, Pivotman, 12/1 Xclaim, 16/1 Diamond Bob, 20/1 Whiplash Willie, 25/1 Experimentalist, 40/1 Fleeting Tiger, 50/1 Tileyf.

DIOMED VERDICT: ZAIN SHAMARDAL sets a reasonable standard on this month's C&D debut run and is the tentative choice, ahead of twice-raced Lejaam. Yet another maiden today, but Fallon on for Brian Meehan and a group 1 entry all help persuade. Only run was in a novice stakes race rather than a maiden. A sign of an above average horse? Only 5 under 25/1 here and only 3 under 14/1 305 SALISBURY BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Big Issue, 4/1 Thomas Tompion, 13/2 Highlife Dancer, 11/1 Blue Deer, DIOMED VERDICT: BIG ISSUE has easily the best form courtesy of placed efforts in Group/Listed company of late and should be very hard to beat. Thomas Tompion may be next best. This is now Big Issue v Highlife dancer. No places but straight win on Big Issue . Would be a shock were he to lose. Only tactics I think would ensure the loss. Richard Hughes onboard Big Issue 340 SALISBURY BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sohcahtoa, 11/4 Whistleinthewind, 7/2 Advertise, 9/2 Indian Valley, 14/1 Easy Terms, Sounds Of Thunder, 25/1 State Visit, 66/1 Raghdaan, 100/1 Richardlionheart. DIOMED VERDICT: SOHCAHTOA has just about the best recent form and is preferred with stamina not an issue. Advertise a non runners should open things up for the original 3 under 14/1 in the betting forecast. Only 4 under 20/1 here makes for a good probability race if the betting market is accurate. 615 SLIGO BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Prince Erik, 9/4 Carrigmartin, 6/1 Kirbybroguelantern, 10/1 Mcswynes Bay, Mulberry Boy, 12/1 Rory´s Pleasure, 14/1 Rockys Choice, 20/1 All The Eights, Wellforth, 33/1 Ballycomclone, Stonesinmypocket, 50/1 Cofrem Shadow, 66/1 Druids Castle, Miss Tipp. Ruby riding for Dermot Weld on a chaser interesting. Prince Erik a faller last time out . 750 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Handsome Jack, 5/1 Bouggatti, 6/1 Tokum, 7/1 Hawk Moth, 8/1 Fifth Dimension, Memory Lane, 12/1 Daas Rite. DIOMED VERDICT: HANDSOME JACK (nap) can follow up his Yarmouth win. 2nd fav a non runner should make life a little easier for Handsome Jack SHORTLIST 5pm - Palestine v Iraq - 1.29 away - emphatic recent head to head results - 7 goals scored against none. But last competition result was a tight 1-0 to Iraq. 530pm - Rubin Kazan v Barcelona - 1.73 away - Barca had not beaten Athletico Madrid away last twice and won, and were similarly priced against Bilbao away and won 3-1. I expect them not to lose today which means either 1) back Barca with a 0-0 insurance cover bet 2) lay Rubin Kazan at 6.6 for an equivalent 1.17 bet 745pm - Valencia v Man Utd - interested in laying Valencia/Valencia here in the halftime/fulltime market at 5.5 for an equivalent 1.20 back bet. 3am - Santos Laguna v Joe Public FC - 1.19 home - long wait but the odds look about right here. Odds are 1.14 at Bet365 210 NEWCASTLE - recently we have avoided 2 year olds as there have been new experiences for them i.e. new to the all weather or new to undulating courses such as Brighton. Well today we have soft ground at Newcastle and this is NOT NEW to Parlour Games. 1.18 to place. Ran on soft on sole run. Do we trust 2 year olds still? That is the question. 8 runners, 3 places and 4 only under 25/1 should help Parlour Games place as long as he progresses. 305 SALISBURY - 1.14 for Big Issue in a straight match. 50/50 chance . 750 KEMPTON - 2 places is a problem but Handsome Jack is missing nearest market rival. Market needs a look at nearer the off. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 530pm - Rubin Kazan v Barcelona - 1.73 away - there must be an angle in here. Back Barca at 1.73 with a 0-0 insurance bet or lay Rubin Kazan to cover the draw. Barca are likely to have the lion's share of possession. 745pm - Valencia v Man Utd - will Man Utd be losing at half time and fulltime? 5.5 to lay Valencia/Valencia halftime/fulltime is interesting 3am - Santos Laguna v Joe Public FC - 1.19 home - odds look right - illiquid market at the moment. 1.14 with bet365 210 Newcastle - Parlour Games has had the sole run on soft ground and is the only one who has that experience in this maiden. Only 4 under 33/1, El Torbellino the market mover. 1.18 for Parlour to place in a likely 4 horse race for 3 places 305 SALISBURY - faith in Richard Hughes onboard Big Issue to beat one horse. 1.14 to do so. Win only bet of course . -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

28/9

Horse racing very poor today, littered with maidens and open handicaps.

To the football then and I cannot see Auxerre getting anything out of Real Madrid tonight

***** 745pm - Auxerre v Real Madrid - LAY Auxerre at odds of 8 using usual stake as Fixed Liability. This makes the bet an equivalent 1.13 back bet*****

Alternatively, back Real MAdrid and take out an insurance cover bet on 0-0 incase Auxerre shut out Real.

For those willing to take a chance, the Bayern price looks massive against a team beaten by Cluj. Perhaps back Bayern and cover with a 0-0. NOTE - Bayern's price is drifting so market makers may know something I don't.




supercharged 2nd so job done.
As an interesting aside, the winners of the races mentioned yesterday all were 16/1 system market movers. Something I could not see at time of writing but something live market followers could have picked up on.

530pm - Spartak Moscow v Zilina - 1.38 home - a Champions League match featuring Slovakian team Zilina who were put in their place by Chelsea. It is always difficult to gauge these one off matches. Zilina could not score in their last league match. Spartak have lost 3 in their last 11, winning 6 and drawing 2. As I said in my last analysis of Zilina, they are the dominant force in the Slovakian league.
745pm - Auxerre v Real Madrid - 1.61 away - where are the goals going to come from under Mourinho away from home? Bear in mind, here, that away goals are key to success. Auxerre have only won 2 of their last 12 matches which logically makes Real Madrid the favourites here. Unbeaten so far in the league and a nice 2-0 home victory against Ajax in the Champions League, Real are difficult to predict. Priced to win well against Levante at the weekend, they could only muster a 0-0. The concern is that Real Madrid have difficulty against teams with strong defensive attitudes.
Auxerre have lost 3 and drawn 2 in their last 5 matches. It was a good home win in the Champions League against Zenit St Petersburg, but in the 2nd half, Zenit had 2 sent off so the 2-0 win is not " clean" .
Auxerre at 7.6 is layable. I suspect the Champions League Real Madrid are a different animal to the league side?
At home, Auxerre have drawn 8, won 3 and lost 1 in their last 12 ( that loss was in a friendly). This again hints at a lay of Auxerre given their ability to draw.
Real have won 7 and drawn 5 in their last 12 away ( but like Auxerre some of these were friendlies)

745pm - Cardiff v C Palace - 1.57 home - 4 away losses out of 4 for Palace so far this season. Cardiff have not lost in their last 6 against Palace, and added to that poor Palace away record, this could be a good time to back the Blues with the excellent David Bellamy playing too. Perhaps back Cardiff at 1.57 to lay off if they lead at any stage? Cardiff at home have won 3 out of 3. Away from home they are poor.
4 of Palace's last 5 matches have seen 3 or more goals scored.
All of Cardiff's matches have been over 1.5 goals. 1.28 over 1.5 goals and in running.
745pm - Chelsea v Marseille - 1.44 home - in the Champions League, an own goal gave Marseille a 1-0 victory against Spartak Moscow.
Chelsea have lost their last 2 matches, but one was a League Cup match, the other against Man City.
CHelsea's only 2 home losses have come in the League Cup and 1-0 to Inter Milan in the Champions League.
Drogba meets old employers so will be extra motivated.
Again a tricky one to add up, but Chelsea will be mindful of the away goal threat. The asian handicappers think Chelsea have goals in them and begin at +1.5

745pm - FC Basel v B Munich - 2.02 away - my knee jerk reaction here is that this is a massive price for Bayern Munich against a side from a weaker league. Basel lost 2-1 to Cluj in the Champions League and look below at the price for Roma against Cluj. This could hint at Basel's level as regards the more well known European teams.
Bayern are really missing Robben. They have won 2, lost 2, drawn 2 so far in the league. They actually didn't score in 3 matches.
Basel have only lost 1 of their last 12 at home, but we have to wonder how strong the Swiss league is.
After all, there are only 10 teams and so competition is not there.
This is why the 2.02 is so tempting purely from a trading perspective if Bayern lead at any stage. Surely the Bundesliga is far better quality than 10 team Swiss league?

745pm - Newport County v Forest Green - 1.5 home - good recent form v bad recent form. Newport have won last 4 and are unbeaten in last 10.
Forest Green have lost last 4 and have not won in last 7. BUT Newport's recent wins have been tight - 1-0, 2-1, 1-0 , 1-0. Forest Green , though have conceded 2,4,3,3 in their 4 losses recently
745pm - Roma v CFR Cluj - 1.41 home 2008 1-2 loss at home and 3-1 away win for Roma.
WLDLLDL for Roma. The win was 1-0 v Inter Milan so a confidence booster of sorts.
WDD so far ( latest first always) at home for Roma could hint at a lay of Cluj?
Cluj DDLWLWLDL this season - 2 wins only.
Looks like 2 teams in poor form .
DDLLLD away from home in the league for Cluj again backs up, perhaps, the lay?
8pm - QPR v Millwall - 1.71 home - 7 wins and a 2-2 draw for QPR this season. At home, it is 4-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-0 -not conceded. This hints at a trade if we hope QPR score first.
WWLWDDLL (latest at the end) for Millwall this season. Away from home, WLDL.
Goals could be the order of the day here?
4,3,2,4,3,3,2,3 for QPR this season
3,4,4,4,2,0,7,3 for Millwall this season

1.31 over 1.5 goals is interesting? Head to heads tell a story of historically tight matches 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 but their relevance is questioned as they start at 2004 and end in 2006

laying Millwall at 6 is the same as a 1.19 back bet and covers the draw.


225 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Southerness, 11/4 Ashammar, 13/2 Bucephalus, 7/1 Rain Stops Play, 10/1 Fred Bojangals, Morning Time, 14/1 Contradiktive, 16/1 Veronicas Boy, 100/1 Roi´s Last Runner.

DIOMED VERDICT: ASHAMMAR looks a horse with some potential and can make a successful return in this easier company.

Only 3 under 14/1 and interestingly all 3 are all red and backed. Fred Bojangles is the market mover here.

245 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Red Riverman, 11/2 Blue Deer, 6/1 Marked Card, 17/2 Chief Of Men, 11/1 Madame Solitaire, 16/1 Captain Brown, Handicraft, 33/1 Honkers Bonkers, Safe Haven, 50/1 Last Act, 100/1 Nice Chimes.

DIOMED VERDICT: RED RIVERMAN (nap) has the form on the board and can repel the potential improvers in the line-up if this sharper course does not inconvenience.

Another maiden and another favourite with apparent form in the book. 32 "wins if handling course" Brighton is a unique course especially for 2 year olds.
Captain Brown is a big market mover for Prescott/Sanders and as a newcomer that is a potential gamble.

530 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Conduct, 8/1 Grams And Ounces, Hear The Roar, 9/1 Clockmaker, Fanditha, 10/1 Laudatory, 12/1 Valiant Knight, 14/1 Autumn Riches, Blues Music, 16/1 Cosimo de Medici, Majuro, Resentful Angel, Wiggy Smith, 25/1 Baylini, 28/1 Ellemujie, Geneva Geyser, 40/1 The Only Key.

DIOMED VERDICT: Plenty with chances but the one that really leaps off the page is CONDUCT who created a favourable impression when making a successful debut at Sandown and should be well suited by this step up in trip.

Most eyecatching price gapper of the day comes with risks attached. Winner on sole run in a maiden and now entered into first handicap. Ryan Moore booked could be the persuader.

17 runners means 4 places so if Conduct runs as his price indicates, he should be at the business end.

INteresting analysis of his sole run

"CONDUCT, the first foal by Selkirk out of a marewho won at 2m, must be a promising prospect to win first time out in the manner that he did from so far back early on, powering clear inside last once the penny dropped and leaving the impression he´d beat this field much more easily if they were to meetagain. A step up to 1m2f or, better still, 1m4f looks very much on the cards before too long, and it will be a tip in itself if he remains in training next year. He´s bound to win handicaps."


SHORTLIST
745pm - Auxerre v Real Madrid - 1.61 away - a number of options here
1) back Real madrid and the 0-0 correct score as an insurance bet
2) back Real Madrid and hope they score first or lead at any stage to trade out.
3) lay Auxerre at 7.6 for an equivalent 1.14 bet
745pm - Cardiff v C Palace - 1.57 home - 1.28 over 1.5 goals includes both sides.
745pm - Chelsea v Marseille - 1.44 home - another with perhaps a 0-0 cover if backing Chelsea. Asian handicap starts at +1.5 - no Drogba and Fat Frank big misses.
745pm - FC Basel v B Munich - 2.02 away - am I missing anything here with the big price for Bayern against a team who lost to Cluj?
745pm - Roma v CFR Cluj - 1.41 home - lay of Cluj given Roma's strong home form ( but poor recent overall form)
8pm - QPR v Millwall - 1.71 home - 1.31 over 1.5 goals involves both sides - head to heads dismissed as they were so long ago?

I will have to ignore the Sedegfield race as it is novice hurdlers early season, and the Brighton maiden sees 2 year olds at this intricate track for the first time, and this is reason enough to oppose the favourite Red Riverman

530 NEWBURY - Conduct runs in a 17 runner handicap meaning there are 4 places so plenty of scope for him to run well, not win, but well enough to come in the first 4.

1.59 to place

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Auxerre v Real Madrid - 1.61 away - lay Auxerre at 8 now is around 1.13 back bet and covers the draw or back Real at 1.61 and back the 0-0 at 11.5 to win enough to cover your 1.61 stake on Real
745pm - FC Basel v B Munich - 2.02 away - back Bayern at a massive 2.1 now and cover the 0-0 at 13.5 or lay FC Basel at 4.3 , an equivalent 1.28 back bet
8pm - QPR v Millwall - 1.71 home - 1.31 over 1.5 goals - historically tight match but last met 4 years ago so head to heads irrelevant - going on recent goals for both sides, over 1.5 goals has a chance of coming in.







--------------------

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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27/9

***** ONE A DAY - 220 FFOS LAS - SUPERCHARGED TO PLACE ONLY*****

Richard Hughes booked. 32 form over 5 furlongs on today's ground. Only 3 under 14/1 and 5 under 33/1 - good place only chance. Of course 2 year olds can throw in stinkers. I hope the booking of Richard Hughes can enable this horse to be competitive.




3 winners out of the 4 horses mentioned which pleased me.
Crvena scored the goal that won the match,as the home side who have not scored a goal this season, did not score again.



1pm - Albania U17 v Rep of Ireland U17 - 1.25 away - Albania have not won any of their last 11 matches. LDLLL at home.
WDWWWLLWDWWWL for Ireland. Only 3 losses in their last 12.
Albania drew twice against Macedonia and once against Latvia.
Ireland have won 3 of their last 4 away, drawing 1-1 with Hungary who recently beat Albania 5-0.
Only match odds and over/under 2.5 goals available.
4pm - Malta U17 v Norway U17 - 1.26 away -
MALTA - LLLLDLDWDWLL in last 12
NORWAY - WLWLLDDWWDDL in last 12.
Malta at home LLDLWLLWLL
Norway away - LDDDLLWLDWDW
No head to heads
Malta are on a 7 game run without winning, and have lost their last 4 matches conceding 3,5,5,2

Norway have won 2 of their last 3 and away from home drawn 3 of their last 4 and have not won away in 6 games.

220 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Supercharged, 11/4 Button Moon, 13/2 Forty Proof, Yellow Dandy, 8/1 His Grace, 16/1 Milldown Magic, Shugar Rhi, 20/1 Deveze, 25/1 Partout Le Magasin, Swendab.

DIOMED VERDICT: Button Moon will find this much less demanding than the sales races she's been contesting but SUPERCHARGED is much less exposed and beat the remainder handsomely when runner-up at Sandown.

Like Laaheb yesterday, Supercharged is another favourite whose odds look like they have been shortening this morning. 1/2 now , Richard Hughes on board , taking over from Alan Munro.
Another maiden who is 32 so far ( progressive form)
Only 3 under 16/1 here .
Only 5 under 33/1
5 furlong maiden - last time we got involved in a 5 furlong maiden, the choice finished a frustrating 4th.
1.12 to place - is this one of those 2 year olds who will not flunk it when priced and expected to run well. The last 2 year old to do so was, admittedly, transferring from turf to all weather. No such problems today.

240 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Fimias, 5/1 Sceal Nua, 11/2 Cathcart Castle, 6/1 Diamond Vine, 7/1 Tamareen, 8/1 Royalorien, 12/1 Bearheart, Titus Two, 14/1 Point Du Jour, 16/1 Maggie´s Treasure.

DIOMED VERDICT: FIMIAS, the least exposed in the field and a likely improver with the step up in distance on his handicap debut, is very interesting in quite a competitive event. Sceal Nua could give him most to do.

Fallon, of late, has been a joy to watch. Not a hint of throwing a race! Here he rides Fimias who is 15/8 in places for Luca Cumani.
This horse has been unremarkable in 3 maidens and now qualifies for handicaps. A 50/50 chance here to be honest. Some handicap newcomers find it too competitive.

310 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Green Wadi, 13/2 Aurora Sky, 7/1 Charming Man, 8/1 Moscow Oznick, 10/1 Cast Of Stars, Gandalf, 12/1 Eseej, 14/1 Trachonitis, 16/1 Crystal Celebre, Spensley, 20/1 Dynamic Drive, Peter Grimes, 25/1 Aphrodisia, Marju King.

DIOMED VERDICT: GREEN WADI can step up on recent defeat by Home Advantage.

Green wadi an eyecatching price gapper in this big field class 5 0-75 handicap.
9/4 - -- - - 6/1

Recently 32 in class 4 handicaps and George Baker has been the regular jockey.
He's a class act.

340 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Isobar, 6/1 Sulwaan, 7/1 Rumble Of Thunder, 8/1 Sing Sweetly, 10/1 Akhmatova, 12/1 Dubai Crest, 16/1 Encircled, Free Tussy, Peadar Miguel, 20/1 Franco Is My Name, 25/1 Stand Guard, Tuanku, 33/1 Prohibition.

DIOMED VERDICT: Isobar is progressive but may be worth opposing with SING SWEETLY.

Another Fallon/Cumani partnership and more positive in the market. All red and 11/10 in places.
321 form but has been in class 5 handicaps. Today is a class 4 but is still a price gapper here.
Only 6 horses under 16/1

430 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ultimate Quest, 3/1 Sir Freddie, 11/2 Saborido, Viviani, 9/1 Cloudy City, 12/1 Jenny Soba, 20/1 Party Palace, 25/1 Spiritonthemount, The Composer,

DIOMED VERDICT: ULTIMATE QUEST recorded a personal best when powering through at Pontefract and has decent claims off 4lb higher.

Only 5 under 20/1 here and Ultimate quest is the fancy here for handicap expert Mark Prescott.

605 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Start Me Up, 11/2 Pops Rocket, 7/1 Andlau, 8/1 Sonic Beat, Tough Talkin Man, 14/1 Another Chieftain, False Messenger, 16/1 Sorted, 20/1 Miss Odetta, 25/1 Coole Presenting, Lord Friday, Rince Deireadh, Stonehatchetmad, 50/1 Cottage Cross, Definite Print, Get In There, 66/1 Pasou, Port And Brandy,

Start Me Up is 11/10 - - - -5/1 price gapper and has been running in top class grade hurdles.

SHORTLIST
1pm - Albania U17 v Rep of Ireland U17 - 1.25 away - I would hope that Albania continue their sequence of not winning, but does that mean we can comfortably expect the Irish to win. The draw cannot be discounted.

220 FFOS LAS - the market mover of the day is Supercharged and Richard Hughes is booked for the ride today. 1.12 to place is reasonable given the potential probabilities. Only 3 under 14/1 and 5 under 33/1 for the 3 places.

Good progressive form over the minimum trip. Ground is good to firm today, so says the Racing Post.
Supercharged has run on good and good to firm, so no problems ground wise.
Supercharged is running on turf again, so no excuses with a change to all weather!!

Always a risk with minimum trip 2 year olds but again Supercharged is not changing distances , up to 6 furlongs, so looks to tick all boxes.

310 KEMPTON - Green wadi is eyecatchingly all red, 9/4 currently and shortening. George Baker in the saddle and we cannot find another jockey as dependable as old George.
Good 2nd at this venue last time out ( so no problem with the surface) - looks good to place today I would hope.
1.57 to place
Big price but previously I have ignored horses based on big apparent place price and they have gone on to win.


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

220 FFOS LAS - Supercharged looks to have no negatives as regards trip, ground and so is primed to place in the first 3 in a race where only 3 are under 14/1 and 5 under 33/1
Niggle - 2 year old 5 furlong maiden.





--------------------

NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181

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Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS

Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ

Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94

Crvena would look to be the strongest bet of the day but there is little interest in the match on Betfair.

I am left with 3 irish races which all look good but I need assurances that the ground is soft and not heavy ( I cannot get these assurances at time of writing) This leaves Laaheb in the 410 Ascot, all red ( signalling he has been backed all morning) and 10/11 in this group 3, class 1.

***** ONE A DAY - Crvena would have been my choice today but the market is dead on Betfair. www.bet365.com offer 1.12. If the market livens up on Betfair, then anything above 1.12 is good*****

Soft, and heavy threatened ground at the Curragh, and a 2 the place group 3 race at Ascot are all that is left. If given a choice, I would have to side with Laaheb, but acknowledge that, like Makfi yesterday, he has some good group horses in opposition. Only 2 places means we have to be spot on.




Nice multiple and one a day scuppered. Even more frustrating as I said, in my analysis "1.18 over 1.5 goals is the safer bet. More speculative ( and potentially tradeable) over 3.5 goals at 2.32. Early Arsenal ( or WBA ) goals will see these odds reduce." - So why didn't I fecking pick it as a one a day? Always helps when you've got a goalkeeper and his white cane in goal. Again there were far better alternatives I could have chosen, such as White moonstone, Frankel, Celtic (at 3pm using time as the decision maker yesterday), and Porto who were standout.

What disappoints me is these are all avoidable.

1245 - Aberdeen v Rangers - 1.63 - same price as Barca yesterday when the latter were expected to have a tough match ( finished 3-1) . 1-0 and 0-0 to Aberdeen in head to heads at their place tell us why the odds are so high for an old firm side.
Recent collateral form could allow us to speculate on 1.63 Rangers ( maybe with a 0-0 cover)

Dundee United

3-1

Aberdeen FC

Glasgow Rangers

4-0

Dundee United

Not conclusive as Aberdeen were away and Rangers at home, but should give an idea regarding the shape of the teams.

1pm - Dinamo Kiev v Arsenal Kiev - 1.31 home - Dinamo have won the last 5 head to heads and at home scorelines have been 3-0 and 3-1 in 2010 and 2009 head to heads
WWDLW for Arsenal away this season is reasonable form.
WDWW with some European action for Dinamo at home this season.
Are the head to heads enough for us to back at 1.31. Only match odds available.

130pm - Breda v Willem II - 1.46 home - in running.
League 2010 and 2009 head to heads see 1-2 (away win), 4-0, 2-0(away loss) for Breda.
DWW so far for Breda at home.
Willem II have lost all matches this season . Away from home scorelines of 3-0, 3-0, 2-0 - all shut outs. 6 games so far for Willem II have been over 2.5 goals so 1.2 over 1.5 goals an option?

2pm - Liechtenstein U17 v Kazakhstan U17 - 1.21 - Liechtenstein have conceded 9, 12, 11 in their last 3 matches ( must have Almunia in goal wearing his big clown shoes ) so surely worthy of opposing here? But this kazak team were just mullered 6-2 by Belarus and have lost 11 and drawn 1 of their last 12.
This football match is unlikely to be stopping traffic this afternoon.

3pm - Cukaricki v Crvena Zvezda - 1.18 away - this looks like out of form home side v in form away side.
Cukaricki have lost their last 6 matches this season. Last 4 losses have been 2-0.2-0 and 1-0 losses at home this season. Cuckaricki have NOT EVEN scored this season.
1 draw and 5 wins for Crvena this season in stark contrast to Cukaricki.
3-1, 1-0 and 0-0 the 3 away matches for Crvena. Bar the 3-1, hint of difficulty away for Crvena.
Cukaricki will score eventually - we have seen the power of sequences lately ( alas with Zilina I noticed that the draw was the likely sequence but bet against this sequence continuing) but when?

4pm - Omonia v APOP/Kinyras - 1.18 home. Based really on the away side losing 11 of their last 12 matches.
Head to heads 3-1 away win and 1-0 home win for Omonia.
THis match is in running which is interesting.
3-0, 4-2, 4-0, 4-2 last 4 losses for APOP away from home.Only one recent home result for Omonia 1-0 . Continuing from last season scorelines at home of 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1. Slight cause for concern, but can we conclude that APOP are really in poor form both home and away CONSISTENTLY!

5pm - Anderlecht v KV Mechelen - 1.41 home - 4-1, 4-0, 0-0, 3-0 at home for Anderlecht this season. Won 5 and drawn 3 so far this season.
2-1, 2-1, 1-0 loss for Mechelen away from home. So they can score away from home.
2 wins each for these in last 4 head to heads - Anderlecht have won the most recent 2 head to heads 2-0.
In running




215 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Petronius Maximus, 5/1 Park Avenue, 8/1 Bad Romance, Rose Bonheur, 9/1 Flic Flac, 10/1 Lechevalier Choisi, Stage Master, 16/1 Adiynara, Another Footstep, Darasal Wane, Madeira Man, 20/1 Emperor Of The Sun, 25/1 Imperator Augustus, Theyturnedmedown, 50/1 Dancing On Turf, 66/1 Frozen Frontier, Optiflame, 100/1 Abbeyshrule, Charismas Birthday, Princess Theophane, Reasons Unknown.

Remember him? 1.03 in running and slipped and went through the railings as a one a day selection.
Return today under Johnny Murtagh and must have a good chance if all is well. Big field mind you but in his last run he blasted from the front.

315 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Chrysanthemum, 5/1 Katla, 11/2 Wild Wind, 6/1 Quiet Oasis, 8/1 Peahen, 10/1 Bible Belt, 12/1 Banimpire, Sonning Rose, 33/1 Juliet Capulet, 50/1 Hope Of An Angel, 100/1 Eirnin.

25/1 winner on debut and now group race price gapper? Take the hint? Wild Wind represents Ballydoyle.

335 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tastahil, 9/2 Free Agent, 5/1 Martyr, 11/2 Pompeyano, 10/1 Blizzard Blues, 12/1 Fictional Account, 25/1 Lady Hestia, 40/1 On Terms,

DIOMED VERDICT: TASTAHIL will be very hard to beat if in the same form as when a good second in the Doncaster Cup last time, especially as this slower ground is if anything a plus for him.

9 down to 7 runners and still 3 places. "very hard to beat " Tastahil is 1.4 to place.
The market , though, is tight, 2/1, 3/1 , 4/1, 4/1 for the first 4.

350 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hallie´s Comet, 7/2 Luisant, 5/1 Hujaylea, 6/1 Barack, 12/1 Excelerate, Worldly Wise, 14/1 Kitty Kiernan, 16/1 Ballivor, 20/1 Blaze Brightly, 25/1 Good Time Sue.

Weld/Smullen Hallie's Comet was a good winner last time out. Currently there are 4 horses under 14/1

410 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Laaheb, 5/2 Whispering Gallery, 11/2 Mikhail Glinka, 8/1 Monitor Closely, 16/1 Halicarnassus, 33/1 Shahwardi,

DIOMED VERDICT: Laaheb has hit a new high recently and looks the danger toWHISPERING GALLERY who looked back to his best when winning on soft ground on his latest start.

Laaheb is 10/11 and all red here. Only 4 horses under 33/1 here for 2 places in this Group 3, Class 1 race. As you saw with Makfi yesterday and Red Jazz placing at 25/1, all horses in group races are there because they have shown something.

425 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Casamento, 9/2 Mawaakef, 6/1 Factum, 12/1 Music In The Rain, 16/1 Robin Hood, 50/1 Hold The Aces, 100/1 Rossvoss.

Head 2nd to PAthfork, Casamento runs on soft and is an obvious favourite. Smullen onboard.
7 runners and 2 places, 2 horses are 66/1 or bigger.
Aiden O'Brien runs the 2nd favourite and Robin Hood.

SHORTLIST
3pm - Cukaricki v Crvena Zvezda - 1.18 away - home side have not even scored this season. 1.12 with Bet365 for Crvena so anything above that on Betfair is worth taking.
4pm - Omonia v APOP/Kinyras - 1.18 home. APOP have been spanked away from home but Omonia's recent home matches ( albeit 3 from last season) have been 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1 -not scoring many.

315 CURRAGH - Crysanthemum could be a good speculative bet if replicating sole winning start 2 weeks ago. Always a risk of course when you are basing decisions on one run and the 1.55 to place encapsulates this. A 2 year old too and we have seen them throw in unexpected stinkers!

Lordan/Wachman a great combo in Ireland.

350 CURRAGH - Hallies Comet looks good on paper and is another at 1.55 to place ( very illiquid market indeed) for Pat Smullen.
Concern regarding the ground at the Curragh today but Hallies has handled soft.

410 ASCOT - only 4 under 33/1 and 2 places on offer. If following the market, Laaheb would be the choice. 10/11 and all red, very well fancied today. The only drawbacks are that there are 2 places and there are group 3, class 1 horses in opposition.

425 CURRAGH - Casamento looks a good prospect here again with the impressive Pat Smullen onboard. 1.19 to place and 2 places shows you how the market feels. Competitive opposition but this could be a good horse here who will run on soft.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Cukaricki v Crvena Zvezda - 1.18 away - looks like out of form v in form in this match. Cukaricki have not even scored yet which gives us hope that if Crvena can score, then they can bring home the odds.
What a pity there is absolutely no interest at the moment in the Betfair market. This 1.18 may look good, but there is tuppence in the market. Bet365 offer 1.12 which is liquid.

3 horses races in Ireland on soft ( heavy in places and yielding in places on both courses at the Curragh) and one 2 the place group race.

25/9

Need to make the right decision today, unlike yesterday. There are a number of possibles at around 1.24 but who to choose?
Simple time order today will solve the decision making

***** 3pm - Arsenal v West Brom, back Arsenal in the match odds at 1.25*****

Should replicate, or come close, to Chelsea's performance against West Brom

Possible multiple

8 Selections Chosen 1 Arsenal v West Brom (Laying West Brom @ 16.24) 2 Celtic v Hibernian (Laying Hibernian @ 18.75) 3 Olympiakos v Asteras Tripolis (Laying Asteras Tripolis @ 25.12) 4 Panathinaikos v Panionios (Laying Panionios @ 17.67) 5 PSV v Groningen (Laying Groningen @ 11.52) 6 Genk v Zulte-Waregem (Laying Zulte-Waregem @ 7.84) 7 Levante v Real Madrid (Laying Levante @ 18.27) 8 Porto v Olhanense (Backing Porto @ 1.17)

8-Folds Selections Odds* Stake Potential win 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and 8 1.94 €100.00 €94.00 *Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Total stake: €100.00 Your total potential win: €94.00 Submit your bet(s) now

Trusting Slovakian football a grave mistake yesterday, and I pointed out the sequences pointing to a draw, but expected those sequences to be broken.
All this and Pollys Mark wins at a juicy 1.5 to place. I should go with my instinct and not be guided by the price being too high that it is offputting!



12pm - Zenit St Petersburg v FC Saturn Moscow Region - 1.33 home - head to heads 1-0(away win), 2-2, 2-1 home win, 2-2.
Zenit do not lose, but like Zilina, will they score a winner?Unbeaten in league in last 11.9 wins , 3 draws in last 12 home.
WDLDLL for Saturn recently.LLWWD last 5 aways.
2pm - Vidima Rakovski v Litex Lovech - 1.33 away - last met 2008 so Vidima newcomers/returnees to top flight Bulgarian league.
(Most recent first) - LLLLDWD in league so far. Finding life tough. LLDD at home.
DDWDWDW in league for Litex. This looks an ideal time to get a win to break these draws. Can we trust Bulgarian football.
230pm - B Munich v Mainz - 1.51 home - as pointed out last week, Bayern had to win really following 3 games without scoring. They are at home today and expected to capitalise on the fact they scored for the first time in 3 matches away from home.
3-0 and 5-2 at home in head to heads.
Only 3 head to heads 2010 and 2009 3-0 home win , 2-1 away loss, 5-0 away win for Bayern.
2 0-0 home draws on the trot is another sequence which it is hoping will end today.
Tough opponents who are 5/5 in the league with wins away 3-4 and 2-0, the latter against Werder Bremen.
Mainz are actually the form team.
Over 1.5 goals perhaps if we think there will not be another 0-0 at home for Bayern?
Mainz have scored 2 or more in all of their league matches so far.

3pm - Akademik Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia - 1.25 away - no head to heads so I think Akademik must be newcomers. DLLLLLDL = top flight looking to be a struggle. 3 home losses on the trot. 4-0, 2-1, 1-0 losses at home. 2 of the matches were tight, then they got stuffed.
WLWWWLW for Lokomotiv so far. Losses were 2-1 and 3-1 away losses. LWLW for Lokomotiv away from home. No grey areas here ( draws!)
3pm - Arsenal v West Brom - 1.25 home +1.5 asians start at. DWWWD so far for the Arse. At home, 6-0 and 4-1 against Blackpool and Bolton.
LWLDW
6-0 and 1-0 away losses to Chelsea and Liverpool. I would ignore the close score in the Liverpool match. Liverpool are poor at present. We could hope today for a near replication of the Chelsea scoreline for the Arsenal .
1.18 over 1.5 goals is the safer bet. More speculative ( and potentially tradeable) over 3.5 goals at 2.32. Early Arsenal ( or WBA ) goals will see these odds reduce.
2-0, 3-1, 1-0 Home, Away, Home head to head wins most recently.
3pm - Celtic v Hibernian - 1.31 home 5/5 for Celtic so far and 4-0, 3-0 shut outs at home. Look reliable. Great in mid week cup game when similarly priced v Caley Thistle.
WLLDD for Hibs this season. Rangers, away at Hibs, beat them 3-0 and this is the kind of scoreline we should expect today.
WWLWDW for head to heads. The loss was 2-1 for Hibs AT CELTIC.
Celtic have scored 1st in last 4 matches and are tradeable at 1.31 if they lead at any stage.
DDLL for Hibs last 4 matches.
St Mirren beat Hibs away 1-0 recently and Celtic beat St Mirren at home 4-0 recently. Good collateral form?
IN RUNNING but unmanaged market
3pm - Rapid Vienna v KSV Superfund - 1.36 home - 3 wins and 5 losses so far this season do not make Rapid Vienna a betting proposition at 1.36. Superfund have lost their last 3, and conceded 4 and 3 in their last 2. Goals here? Not in running so only over 2.5 goals option.
3pm - Rubin Kazan v Alania Vladikavkaz - 1.34 home - 1-1 in away head to head in May. Alania newcomers to the top flight.
Rubin have won their last 5 home matches. Alania away WLLLL.
4pm - Anorthosis v Olympiakos Nicosia - 1.26 home - far too close in head to heads for consideration.
5pm - Besiktas v Antalyaspor - 1.44 home WLWWD
LW at home so far this season.
Jan 2010 1-0 Besiktas away win scoring a 54th minute penalty so no goal from open play. So be cautious! They have beaten Antal in last 4 home matches.
Antal have won 2, drawn 2 of their last 4. They lost 4-0 to Fenerbache who drew 1-1 with Besiktas at Fenerbache. A good guide?
5pm - Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin - 1.3 home - 1-0, 1-1, 1-1 in recent matches for Hajduk. Not really good goalscoring form. Away side have won 3 of last 4
5pm - Lokomotiva v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.35 away
530pm - Olympiakos v Asteras Tripolis - 1.23 home - LWW so far for Oly . WDD for Asteras. More draws in the Greek league - fancy that!!
3-1, 3-0, 1-0, 3-1 in league head to heads to Oly is fairly emphatic.

530pm -Panathinaikos v Panionios - 1.32 home - 1-1, 1-0, 2-2 - tight matches for Panathanaikos so far this season.
0-1 (loss), 1-1, 1-0 (win) for Panionios.
Tight matches throughout.
2-0, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1 to Panathanaikos in head to heads. Pana need to start winning - over 1.5 goals at 1.31 tells you that the Greeks have reputation for drab low scoring affairs generally.
6pm -Marseille v Sochaux - 1.45 home
645pm - PSV v Groningen - 1.45 home - 4 wins and 2 draws for PSV - unexpected 0-0 last time out. 6,3,3 goals scored at home.
Groningen have won their last 4 matches. Drew 2-2 at home against Ajax who should have won as they were 2-0 up.
PSV have won the last 5 head to heads, scoring 3,4,3 at home in those head to heads.
7pm - CSKA Sofia v Montana - 1.3 home - 1-1, 1-2 (away win) in head to heads. The 1-1 is a concern but CSKA did score first. This is in running.
1-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 for CSKA at home does not make them backable at home. But are Montana so bad?
LLLD away from home conceding 4, 3, and 2.
CSKA have had tight matches but Montana concede readily.IN RUNNING.
7pm - Genk v Zulte-Waregem - 1.53 home - 7 wins and a draw so far this season. Stick with a team in form. They did not let me down last week . They have scored 2,4,5,3 in their 4 home matches this season.2-2, 2-2, 2-1 ( loss) , 3-1 win. Goals in these head to heads.Not in running.WLDDWD for Zulte includes a 0-0 shut out away at Anderlecht. A shot across the bow therefore -they can frustrate against the big boys and away from home.Then in their last 2 matches, there have been 7 and 8 goals and 8 conceded by Zulte Waregam. What a Jekyll and Hyde side.
7pm - Levante v Real Madrid - 1.28 away - 3 wins and a draw so far. Away from home, 0-0 Majorca and 1-2 Real Sociedad. Ronaldo has scored in the last 2 matches - turning into a key component for the Special One.
Context - Barca are without Messi and away to Ath Bilbao - this is a toughie for Barca, and , while so priced, Real Madrid must get the 3 points in the earlier fixture to heap pressure on a side a crucial point behind.
LLL1-0 win for Levante. 1-4 and 1-2 at home. They should be put to the sword this evening.
Head to heads? ( again I am not sure of relevancy as the manager is so different) - 5-2 and 2-0 -these were 2008 head to heads. Interestingly asian handicaps start at +1 only. BUT there is an independent +2.5 handicap market for Levante which offers conflicting market confidence re goals.

9pm - Ath Bilbao v Barcelona - 1.66 away - watching Barca last week and the absence of Messi was huge. It is amazing the difference in the side without the little man. Hence the 1.66 quote tonight away from home against a side they drew 1-1 with last time away . At the Nou Camp it is a different story.
Villa scored last weekend which should fill him with confidence in a nervy 1-0 win.
WDLW for Bilbao so far this season. At home, it is loss and win.
3-0 and 2-1 for Barca away from home were in a Messi led side where he scored 2 goals in 2 games.
1.66 could look like cracking odds at the end of the match. I would perhaps cover a back of Barca with a 0-0 insurance bet as they are likely to find life difficult this evening and dare not lose.
915pm - Porto v Olhanense - 1.19 home - 5/5 this season and becoming a reliable betting proposition are Porto. Scored 3 in both home matches this season.
2-2 and 0-3 away win in head to heads. Last time out, Olhanense scored 2 and Porto fought back for a 2-2 draw ( great enhanced trading bet that's for sure!)
Olhanense are unbeaten this season with 3 draws and 2 wins. 2 away draws show they can shut teams out, BUT they HAVE NOT PLAYED TOP 4 yet ( Porto, Sporting, Benfica, Braga) so to what degree can we take this as a sign of strength by the away side.
Against top 5 last season, Olhanense lost 5-0, 3-1, 3-2, 5-2 and a 2-2 draw with Porto.
Goals a safe bet here?
+2 in asian handicaps . 1.23 over 1.5 goals is generous enough.



225 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Drumfire, 3/1 First Lieutenant, 9/2 Pointilliste, 8/1 Priests Road, 9/1 Oneeightofamile, 14/1 Celtic Wish, Meitheamh, Steel Park, 16/1 Derinlaur, 20/1 Lonesome Maverick, Rockfield Abbey, 25/1 Bombalong, 33/1 Cadeaux Fax, Kyoto Summit, No Score, Royal Reveille, Royalfolie, 50/1 A Stones Throw, Captain Ocana, Rebel Alliance, 66/1 Bayross, Beta Blocker, Comaun Buck, Going Nowhere Fast, Jossestown Lad, Midnight Dipper, Mr Shankly, Sandpit House, Serious Intent, The Burrow Vision.

Ruby Walsh on Drumfire, who managed 4th in the flat in a listed race last time. So if he can jump, then he should have too much flat speed for this lot. Big field mind you.

230 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 30/100 Frankel, 7/1 Treasure Beach, 16/1 Klammer, 20/1 Happy Today, Slim Shadey, 25/1 Eskimo.

DIOMED VERDICT: Treasure Beach is on an upward curve but it will come as a shock if the unbeaten FRANKEL fails to underline his Classic credentials.

That's what we want. A shock if he does not win. Chance the win only market? 2 places for the place only market.

305 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 White Moonstone, 15/8 Theyskens´ Theory, 8/1 Together, 16/1 Date With Destiny, 40/1 Fork Handles, 100/1 Traffic Sister.

DIOMED VERDICT: This may well revolve principally around Theyskens' Theory and WHITE MOONSTONE. The latter should find the race run to suit if her rival adopts her normal front-running role.

Very impressive on 10th September, this Whitemoonstone is worthy of consideration again.
5 horses and 3 under 33/1 makes for a good probability race.

415 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Makfi, 5/2 Rip Van Winkle, 7/1 Poet´s Voice, 14/1 Hearts Of Fire, 16/1 Beethoven, 50/1 Bushman, 66/1 Red Jazz, 100/1 Air Chief Marshal.

DIOMED VERDICT: The 2,000 Guineas winner MAKFI proved himself a top-class miler at Deauville and can beat last year's winner Rip Van Winkle and Poet's Voice.

8 runners and 3 are under 14/1 and 5 under 50/1. As ever with ultra competitive races, nothing can be dismissed.

420 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Genius Beast, 7/1 Sadler´s Risk, 8/1 Purification, Red Marling, 12/1 Indian Emperor, 25/1 Elysian Heights, Inca Chief, 40/1 Ballinargh Boy, 50/1 William Wainwright, 100/1 Ime Not Bitter.

DIOMED VERDICT: GENIUS BEAST sets a high standard on his thirds in good maidens and should not be trouled unduly to win a race like this. Purification may be the one to follow him home. Good profile race here as there are only 5 under 25/1 and a solid looking favourite and price gapper in Genius Beast - 2 3rd places but, as ever in maidens, do we trust these 2 year olds. Watch out for huge support for Indian Emperor , now into 2/1 530 GOWRAN PARK BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Long Live The King, 9/2 Tiz The Shot, 5/1 Final Recovery, 10/1 Adilapour, Showboating, 14/1 Dubawi Star, First Sea Lord, Pirate Chest, Schumpeter, 25/1 Hangar Five, 33/1 Bat Masterson, Build A Bridge, Ennis Diamond, 50/1 Hero Of The Sea, Ryguhl. Fav is a Ballydoyle horse spanked into 1/3 SHORTLIST 2pm - Vidima Rakovski v Litex Lovech - 1.33 away - as with the Slovakian football, dare we trust these eastern european leagues? Ideal opportunity for Litex to break their draws. 3pm - Arsenal v West Brom - 1.25 home - 1.18 over 1.5 goals a safer bet? Should be able to replicate Chelsea's scoreline. Bump up to over 2.5 goals to trade? 1.55. 3pm - Celtic v Hibernian - 1.31 home - 4-0 and 3-0 at home so far. Hibs beaten at home 3-0 by Rangers and expectation for similar Celtic display today. 530pm - Olympiakos v Asteras Tripolis - 1.23 home - emphatic head to heads but propensity of away side to draw in recent matches a slight niggle. 530pm -Panathinaikos v Panionios - 1.32 home - perhaps a 1-0 Panionios cover here if backing Panathanaikos given the away sides propensity to keep it tight. 645pm - PSV v Groningen - 1.45 home - likely to be a stern test for PSV against a side in good form. But PSV have scored 3,4,3 at home this season and head to heads are emphatic. 1.17 over 1.5 goals is a neutral bet. 7pm - Genk v Zulte-Waregem - 1.53 home - which Zulte will show up today? The ones who drew 0-0 with Anderlecht or the ones who conceded 8 in their last 2 matches. With the form Genk are in, I could consider a goals bet here BUT NOT TRADEABLE 7pm - Levante v Real Madrid - 1.28 away - emphatic head to heads, Levante in poor form. Should be a Real Madrid win. 915pm - Porto v Olhanense - 1.19 home - 1.23 over 1.5 goals. Olhanense are unbeaten this season but have not played key 4 teams in league. Porto are flying. 230 ASCOT - Chance Frankel to win?1.32 to win , 1.11 to place. 305 ASCOT - should revolve around White Moonstone and Theyskens theory - 1.24 White Moonstone and 1.44 Theyskens to place. 415 ASCOT - Mafki to place is 1.18 here but this is a group race. What chance Rip who won this last year? Back in reasonable form of late212 and 1.33 to place. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 3pm - Arsenal v West Brom - 1.25 home - 1.18 over 1.5 goals a safer bet? - scoring bucket loads at home and should win easily against a West Brom side spanked 6-0 at Chelsea. Look at the Chelsea and Arsenal scorelines against Blackpool and you can gauge from the similarities how close these teams are matched. Speculators can try the over 3.5 goal market to trade. 3pm - Celtic v Hibernian - 1.31 home - 5/5 this season and 3-0 and 4-0 at home. St Mirren beat Hibs 1-0 recently and Celtic beat St Mirren 4-1 recently. I would consider trading if Celtic lead at any stage. 645pm - PSV v Groningen - 1.45 home - 1.17 over 1.5 goals. Nervy price for PSV as Groningen are unbeaten this season. BUT at home, 3,4,3 against this lot in head to heads and have scored 6,3,3 at home so far in the league 7pm - Levante v Real Madrid - 1.28 away - cannot see a weakness here in backing Real. Head to heads emphatic ( albeit 2 years ago) - levante in poor form. Ronaldo must play as he as scored most this season for Real. 915pm - Porto v Olhanense - 1.19 home - 1.23 over 1.5 goals. - Porto are on fire at present. 230 ASCOT - Chance Frankel to win?1.32 to win , 1.11 to place. - Chance the win only here for Frankel? recent run 10th September emphatic.Job made easy with Farrh's absence last time though. 1.11 to place covers any likely dark horse. 305 ASCOT - should revolve around White Moonstone and Theyskens theory - 1.24 White Moonstone and 1.44 Theyskens to place. - I was frustrated that I dismissed White moonstone last time, and in this 3 horse race ( 3 under 33/1 in this 5 horse race) , White Moonstone should be competitive. 1.24 to place -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. 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