back-lay-trade-horses-football: 9/5

No problems yesterday with 2 mentioned in one a day placing easily. The first was at a rubbish price at the off but I got 1.1 which was reasonable enough for a 1/3 shot. A real pity that Chester race was reduced to 3 runners -my mention won in the end but it was a farcical affair.
Busy day today, and if I get the pitiful number of clicks I did yesterday then I can think of better ways of spending my Saturday morning!! IF you don't want to click an ad, or don't like my methods here, then don't read the blog and D.I.Y! I'm not asking for much at all - a simple click then go back to the blog - bang - takes you less than 10 seconds!

By the way the "hard to beat" selections are generally winning - time to resurrect this I think as a possible win only system?

Very early start today - hope it doesnt affect the quality of selections.

140 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Supaverdi, 7/1 Feeling Fab, Good Again, 8/1 Trumpet Lily, 10/1 Basque Beauty, Classic Legend, Secret Night, 12/1 Summer´s Lease, 14/1 Binfield, Haakima, Izzibizzi, 20/1 Ballyalla, 25/1 Flying Valentino.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is probably a good deal more to come from SUPAVERDI (nap), whose half-brother Supaseus has enjoyed some of his best moments here, and she readily put Binfield in her place at Bath when the opening came. The 3yo Feeling Fab could be the one she has to beat, especially if settling better in front than she did at Sandown.[AC]

Hint of he price gapper for this ever improving filly Superverdi. 2 wins in handicap company uses hints at winning run ending as weight is added but these straddled 2008 and 2009.
A class 2 heritage handicap - a classy affair 1.64 to place tells you this

210 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Laudatory, 7/2 Greensward, 9/2 Seek N´ Destroy, 11/2 Seek The Fair Land, 8/1 Kaabari, 10/1 Silent Hero, 12/1 Acquiesced, 25/1 Miss Chamanda,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of these remain open to significant improvement, but it's LAUDATORY who gets the vote having impressed again on the Kempton Polytrack four weeks ago, travelling well and just getting up among a group of pursuers after Seek N' Destroy had got first run on them.[RA]

A race worth consideration given its 8 runners so 3 places and any selection only has 5 to beat to place.
Fav now 6/4 in the live market and close to Ghanaati 3 runs ago. Form of 211 is excellent but wins have come in class 4 - this is class 3.
Penalty also .One clear outsider at 33/1. 2nd biggest price is waivering around 14/1 - 16/1 so could hint at a competitive race.
First try on turf for this fav too has to be mentioned.1.28 in an illiquid market

220 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 I´m Delilah, 4/1 National Heritage, 5/1 Papa Drew, 8/1 Locked Inthepocket, Mamba, 12/1 Can´t Remember, 14/1 Louis Ludwig, 20/1 Lisdonagh House, 33/1 One Rose, 40/1 Bolands Beck, Garnahalowey Lad, 100/1 Minster Lane.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The likes of National Heritage, Mamba and Locked Inthepocket are possibly capable of improvement, while newcomer Papa Drew is one to watch closely in the betting, but I'M DELILAH sets a fair benchmark and looks the one to beat.[SB]

Price gap accentuated in the live betting market.Never out of the first 2 in all 4 runs in 2009.Not happy with jockey change though - E Williams I dont know.Graham Lee has been onboard all this year.
Hint of "HARD TO BEAT2 about this one " looks the one to beat" -1.13 to place looks like confident market support

225 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Silk Hall, 5/1 Zuwaar, 6/1 Herrera, Sri Kuantan, 7/1 Colonel Flay, 10/1 Step This Way, 14/1 Four Miracles, 20/1 Master At Arms, 25/1 They All Laughed.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The progressive SILK HALL (nap) might turn out to be well treated despite top weight having done well over hurdles since joining his current yard and is preferred to Colonel Flay, whose record on his reappearance bears close inspection. Zuwaar and Herrera promise to be bigger dangers than Sri Kuantan

Fav a versatile Alan King horse who has been superb over both jumps and flat ( most recently jumps) Price gapper here.2 horses are 25/1 or bigger and 3rd biggest price is 9/1 which should set alarm bells regarding competitive nature of race - 6 horses are between 5/1 and 8/1 - 9/1 - 1.43 to place

255 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Bouvardia, 11/4 All About You, 9/2 Servoca, 5/1 Olynard, 6/1 Haigh Hall, 20/1 Smokey Ryder, 25/1 Saif Al Fahad, 33/1 Raimond Ridge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: bBouvardia looked a future winner on her reappearance but Olynard, Haigh Hall and ALL ABOUT YOU could all turn out to be well treated and preference is for the selection, whose form has been boosted in no uncertain terms since. Servoca looked a real speedball at Newmarket and adds more interest to a fascinating sprint.

8 runners down to 6 so must get a mention as hopefully still 3 places - therefore any selection has 3 to beat to place. 2 are 16/1 and 22/1 and can hopefully be discounted. Fav is 6/4 but 2 close 3/1 shots breathing down his necck - still a good probability bet?
6 runners and, yes, 3 places, 1.23 , 1.37 and 1.43 the front 3 to place in another market not yet properly formed (given I am writing at 1030am -this is the reason why I try to leave as late as possible usually!)

315 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Age Of Aquarius, 4/1 Alwaary, 5/1 Father Time, 7/1 Montaff, 33/1 Sumbe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The top four have lots of big-race entries. Age Of Aquarius is easily the shortest in the Derby betting and, representing the incredibly powerful team of Aidan O'Brien, he could easily go in but ALWAARY showed striking potential when winning his maiden as a 2yo and should not be underestimated.[RA]

Ballydoyle fav for this Derby Trial BUT these trial races have been reknowned for surprises.Jonny Murtagh was rubbish at Chester - didnt have a clue there -will this dip in form continue for the jockey whos judgement was very much put into question last week. 1.35 for Ballydoyle rep here but I would not be getting involved given this is a Derby Trial.

450 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Zidane, 7/2 Tamagin, 4/1 Redford, 6/1 Buachaill Dona, 13/2 Royal Rock, 11/1 Abraham Lincoln, 12/1 Icelandic, 16/1 Hamoody.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Zidane is very much the one to beat on these terms if in anything like peak form but could definitely do with some rain, otherwise this ground may again be too fast for him, as it was when below-par on last month's reappearance.

Another potential " hard to beat" but concerns over good ground. We need to see the rain I think for this one.
Still, 8 down to 7 and hopefully 3 places - if Spotlights confidence is founded, then a decent place only opportunity? Yes, still 3 places and 1.48 in current market (they are all weak at this time of the morning)

550 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Northgate, 3/1 Timoca, 4/1 Gay Sloane, 14/1 Commons Glory, Lesoto Diamond, Zaralabad, 16/1 Commit To Memory, 33/1 Havanavich, 50/1 Barndeh, Driving Forward, Martha Elizabeth, Ptolomeos, 66/1 Drumcoote, 100/1 The Meteorologist.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NORTHGATE is the obvious form choice and it will be a surprise if he gets beaten here. His one win was in a 2yo maiden here and his two best performances both came over this course and distance last season when fourth in two Listed races, including when beaten just two lengths in the Diamond Stakes won by subsequent Breeders Cup Marathon winner Muhannak. He did run disappointingly on his seasonal debut when only beating one home in the Alleged Stakes at the Curragh but this represents a huge drop in class.\n

Another " hard to beat" selection - looks to involve the front 3 with all, bar these ,at double figure odds 1.18 but odds might change as ,again, market is weak

610 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Reel Credit Crunch, 2/1 Gertmegalush, 5/1 Lairy, 16/1 Francesca Conti, 25/1 Pong Ping,Blogger: back-lay-trade-horses-football - Edit Post "9/5" 33/1 On The Piste, 50/1 Mostofitleft.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A relatively valuable seller. There should be improvement to come from Gertmegalush but he could have difficulty matching strides with REEL CREDIT CRUNCH if the filly has recovered from her Chester exertions

" Reel Credit Crunch

Best effort when making bold bid to lead throughout from favourable draw in Chester maiden on Thursday; slight concern this race will come a bit soon but similar display will make her hard to beat."

Another hard to beat selection. I dont really analyse these, just see how they run ( if I was analysing I'd draw your attention to the fact this is a 5 furlong seller! 1.36

655 WARWICK

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Wild Rhubarb, 3/1 Isabelonabicycle, 9/2 Lady Pilot, 6/1 Colourful Move, 10/1 Calculating, 14/1 Kiho, Sir Sandicliffe, 16/1 Hammer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Isabelonabicycle showed a bit more pluck when winning at Folkestone last time but WILD RHUBARB (nap) is bred to stay all day and can take advantage of what looks a fair mark on her handicap debut.

8 down to 6 runners so hopefully 3 places - looks a choice between the front 2 with 3 at 12/1 but as ever 12/1 is a sign, for an outsider, of inherent competitiveness 1.14 and 1.19

725 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Multiplication, 6/1 Gold Maha, Silent Act, 8/1 Straight Laced, 10/1 Penolva, 25/1 Mono´s Only, 33/1 Fleetwood Flame, 66/1 Rosewin,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Multiplication sets the standard here and should go well, but both Gold Maha and SILENT ACT are capable of better and the latter could be the one to side with.[

Price gapper here but it is Silent Act that has significantly shortened in the live market, albeit 9 hours prior to race time.
Yet again we face a decision with a fav not running since Sept 2008 and a 2nd fav who has had a recent run and for whom there may be some early market support 1.12 and 3 places

All prices are indicative of the time (1030am) and will not be an accurate representation of the prices that could be attained nearer race time when the market forces will be in full effect

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