my final choices yesterday? I went for the 50/50 race after he fav was battered into odds on. 1.28 to place was reasonable and he did not find 3 others in a 6 horse race to beat him.Above is another enhanced bet. Helsingsborgs 0-0 at half time. again I stumbled across it reading the Betfair forum where the general consensus was they were battering their opponents. So I got 1.52 about a 1.28 shot - an enhanced bet! Final result 3-1 and interestingly enough I did mention he 3-1 scoreline against Gothenburg 's game against Orgyte.
2nd match where the correct score has been nailed ( Bordeaux the other one)
220 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Avonvalley, 7/2 Admin, 5/1 Safari Special, 6/1 Saxby, 20/1 Bond Together, Cane Cat, French Connexion, 25/1 Silver Grey.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Admin and Safari Special are both capable of improvement but AVONVALLEY is well up to winning a similar race and she can gain a deserved success this time.[PSm] |
8 runners down to 6 so of interest here.2nd fav a non runner makes Avonvalley's job easier. Avon has placed regularly.
Another maiden race alas but if 3 places on Betfair then worthy of further inspection 1.08 to place tells you the chances in another 50/50 race.
Would this open things up for Safari Special at 1.23 bearing in mind he was one of 4 originally under 20/1?
240 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 El Dececy, 9/2 My Mate Mal, 10/1 Party In The Park, 12/1 Bertie Vista, 25/1 Wabi Sabi, 33/1 Buail Isteach, Nufoudh, Raise All In, Wiseman´s Diamond, 50/1 Ducal Regancy Duke, 100/1 Just Crystal, King Pin, Lifetime Endeavour.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only four of these have managed to win a race and that state of affairs is unlikely to have changed after this event. EL DECECY is a cut above this opposition and should have no trouble in retaining his unbeaten record in this grade.[AC] |
Price gapper -price holding strong but is a seller.
A regular winner in class 6 sellers 1.15 to place
625 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Kingdom Of Munster, 3/1 The West Rim, 10/1 City Line, 12/1 Ashton Lane, 20/1 Lisagore Lady, Sober Sailor.
Aiden o'Brien has been reliable with his shorties.
We face heavy ground here though so there is always a ? over horses' ability to handle the ground and, indeed, if the ground is worse than heavy 1.1 to place
655 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Red Rock Canyon, 5/1 Beidh Tine Anseo, 7/1 Benji´s Babes, 10/1 Outofnowhere, 12/1 Aleonard, 16/1 Ghost Mist, 20/1 Dandy Boy, Independance Day, Libanza, Master Of Light, Stormingkris, 25/1 Karaking, Rocketscience, 33/1 Loveisthedrug, Well Written, Winterdown Boss.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RED ROCK CANYON, a five-year-old who has had more than half of his 20 starts at Group 1 level, may finally lose the maiden tag. He has been called, at times, the best maiden in training. While that may not be true in an overall context, being beaten under 2l by Dylan Thomas and Duke Of Marmalade in the 2007 Irish Champion Stakes should be more than good enough here |
Another Aiden O'Brien hotpot used almost exclusively as a pace setter in his career. Why does Aiden want to get a win in him now? 1.13 to place in an illiquid market
725 TIPP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Art Sleuth, 7/2 Black Coffee, 6/1 Blindspin, 8/1 Dawal, 20/1 Mr Nobody, Owner Occupier, 25/1 Lucky Dolphin, 33/1 Prunelle De L´Orme.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ART SLEUTH should be too good for these rivals. |
Of interest as the 2nd fav is a non runner. 8 down to 7 and hopefully 3 places but again HEAVY ground is the concern despite the fav's ability to handle it 1.11 to place - again illiquid market
750 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Moment Present, 4/1 Sir Liam, 6/1 Seattle Storm, 13/2 Persian Storm, 10/1 Makhzoon, 14/1 Rapid City, 33/1 Briannsta, Lapina, Split The Wind, 66/1 The Graig, 100/1 Heroic Lad, Ten Hour Lunch.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are a few potential improvers in here but MOMENT PRESENT is the one most likely to run his race and also has the edge in experience. Sir Liam is next best.[AWJ] |
Price gapper in this novices hurdle. We can, if prices are accurate, discount a few here.
4 horses are 100/1
1 is 40/1
2 horses at 25/1
5 remain at 16/1 or lower 1.14 to place
850 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Bob ´N´ You, 4/1 Sparkling Montjeu, 7/1 Not For Diamonds, 10/1 Job One, 12/1 Blaze Ahead, Le Forezien, 14/1 Crystal Dance, Enhancer, 20/1 Ramvaswani, Shergill, Wide Receiver, 25/1 Orchard King, Patrixbourne, Walton Way, What Luck, 33/1 Artist´s Return.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It wasn't much of a contest he won at Market Rasen but BOB 'N' YOU (nap) attracted a significant level of support and the ability is there to win more races off higher marks than this if he goes the right way. Sparkling Montjeu is best of the other last-time-out winners.[AWJ] |
Signficant market move this early on -given race time- for Bob N you now 13/8 with next best at 7/1.
A 3 mile 2 handicap hurdle and 4 places is some consolation 1.35 to place but could rise given 850 kick off
FOOTBALL
| 16:00 | Arsenal Kharkiv vs Metalist Kharkiv | 9/1 | 9/2 | 1/5 |
FC Kharkiv have a home record of 1-4-9 (W-D-L) should tell you why they are 9/1 to win at home
Metalist have an away record of 8-3-3 (W-D-L)
Home team on a 7 game losing streak
Away eam have lost their last 2 away games ,one a cup game so we don't know how seriously or otherwise they took it 1.33 to win but not much money and NOT in running
| 16:30 | Zilina vs Dubnica | 1/3 |
Zilina have a home record of 13-2-1 (W-D-L)
Dubnica have an away record of 3-2-11 (W-D-L)
I do like to see these contrasting records when looking to back a shortie
This is Slovakian footy though! Dubnica won head to head last time out in March
1.37 to win
SHORTLIST
220 CHEPSTOW Crap odds as you can see below which is why perhaps Safari Special could be worth a risk? Another 50/50 race 2 horses 20/1 or bigger and one at 14/1. The hope is the front 3 dominate OR Safari Special does not get beaten by 3 horses. Can we assume Avonvalley is a good place thing. 3 horses should not beat this one given its placed form already
240 REDCAR
El Dececy is 1.15 to place in a seller but a look at his seller form (class 6)
look at the class 6 seller form and he has beaten fields of 20 twice now at odds on both occasions, so looks reliable for a seller?TIPPERARY'S races are in heavy ground and should, by default be ignored, but the 3 chosen look decent enough if we can put faith in the connections - Aiden O'Brien is ultra reliable and his shorties deliver.
ONE A DAY
Although all races mentioned today have a great look about them today, the 220 CHEPSTOW Avonvalley looks like the solid one a day bet at a price reflective of this.
Again I suppose a matter of taking your medicine - hope he places and hope for better prices tomorrow.
GAMBLERS - those wishing to take a riskier option may consider Safari Special in the same race -will this once raced maiden, with experience , get beaten by 3 out of 6 horses?
El Dececy in the 240 Redcar looks solid at 1.15 ( as solid as a seller runner can be!?) Proven previous form in class and race type and race size.
I will, I think, be getting involved with Avonvalley and then El Dececy, with Avonvalley the one for my ONE A DAY betting bank.
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