The Staebeck game - yes - another victory by 3 goals for a 1/14 shot. 4-1 final result. Easy match odds win and 1.31 for over 2.5 goals was enticing. - it is amazing how often 1/14 shots win by 3 clear goals so a covering of 3-0, 3-1, 4-1 wouldn't be at all bad! I only backed it with £34 TO WIN A tenner.
Looks like I had nothing to worry about in Brighton as the fav won with ease and Fantastic Dubai placed again for the price gapper in a lowly handicap.
It's too early to start the horses so I'll do the footy first
| 17:00 | Levanger vs Rosenborg | 16/1 | 8/1 | 1/14 |
Another 1/14 away from home and another Norwegain Cup game. I have heard of Rosenborg who should be far too much for this home side. Should we expect over 2.5 goals again here?
1.1 to win in the match odds market
1.18 for over 2.5 goals
1.24 for half time/full time but this market not formed
Game is in running which should ensure greater liquidity nearer the off.
| 17:00 | Mjolner vs Bodo Glimt | 12/1 | 7/1 | 1/10 | ||
| 17:00 | Stalkameratene vs Tromso | 12/1 | 7/1 | 1/10 |
| 17:00 | Roa vs Lyn | 12/1 | 7/1 | 1/10 |
More Norwegian Cup games and 1/10 for the away side should signify an easy win? I am going purely by odds of course as I know next to nothing about Norwegian football or which teams the shorties will put out.
| 18:00 | Silkeborg vs Skive | 1/6 | 5/1 | 13/1 |
Silkeborg have a home record of 7-5-1 (W-D-L)
Skive have an away record of 2-4-7 (W-D-L)
home team have won their last 7 home and away and scored 3 or more in 5 of those matches - full of goals it would seem
2 wins in last 3 for Skive - signs of recovery after a long losing run?
Both wins have come at home and away form sees them struggle
Not in running - concern that winning streaks end eventually - head to heads - 11 goals scored against Skive in last 2 head to heads in the back end of 2008
1.2 to win NOT IN RUNNING
NOTE - I must admit I like European early round cup games as the odds really are reflective of chances and we normally expect goals. Note, though. that the first half can be tight. I thought my overs bet was a goner yesterday with 1-0 for the 1/14 side half time - but the goals came in the 2nd half and this is probably expected given the gulf in class and perceived improved fitness later on in the match?
210 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Niran, 2/1 King Of Axum, 3/1 Brisbane, 16/1 Excellent Guest, 20/1 England.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be better to come from King Of Axum and Brisbane, neither of whom performed to market expectations last time, but NIRAN is probably the one to beat in a tricky race.[FC] |
Had the look of a 3 runner race about it but why is England ( a debutant) at 7/1? A sign the horse is quietly fancied perhaps?
240 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Anjomarba, 6/1 Scilly Breeze, 7/1 Mary Helen, 9/1 Arken Lad, 20/1 Val´s Princess, 25/1 Fairys In A Storm, Our Georgie Girl, 33/1 Micky´s Bird, Saachi´s Vision, 66/1 Minnie Rocket.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are possibilities about the newcomers, especially if they attract support, but ANJOMARBA is head and shoulders above those who have raced and must be hard to beat down in grade.[FC] |
A 2 year old seller only for those with steel plated underwear. A price gapper though and a hard to beat candidate. Read Spotlight's extreme confidence here " MUST be hard to beat"
Market looks essential here given the ages of the horses.
Marked drop in class for this 2 year old who has a fair few runs under his belt which is ideal really if contemplating backing a 2 year old
Only 4 horses under 20/1 at time of writing hints that there are no market movers lurking at this stage
420 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sirvino, 9/2 Fujin Dancer, 7/1 Hillview Boy, Inspector Clouseau, Shy Glance, 10/1 Summer Gold, 14/1 Applaude, Masterofceremonies, 25/1 Scamperdale.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sirvino is the progressive one who is sure to go well under a penalty returned to a left-handed track (ran well at Nottingham last year) but a chance is taken with INSPECTOR CLOUSEAU, who is well handicapped on the pick of his form last year and he'll be interesting back over this trip if able to get an easy lead after an encouraging reappearance run.[RY] |
On a four timer and we have to decide whether the horse has another good run in him or whether the winning sequence will end 9 as they do with multiple handicap winners) Spotlight offers a clue that the horse is 2lb well in so another good run for this price gapper expected today?
450 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lenny Bee, 7/2 Al Mugtareb, 5/1 Ingleby Lady, 6/1 Captain Ellis, Coleorton Choice, 10/1 Blown It, 25/1 Cool Art.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The most interesting runner here is LENNY BEE (nap), who has shown fair form on Polytrack, will be suited by the step up to this trip and who should have no problems with this different surface. He's open to bags of improvement and is taken to beat Ingleby Lady, who is better than she was able to show last time |
4th fav a non runner should make life easier for the principles. Fav open " to bags of improvement" - placed last 3 occasions. Pity it's only 2 places in this race, although we can hopefully disscount Cool Art . Apart from him thogh, a tight market with 4 between 4/1 and 8/1 signfiying a typical competitive handicap
540 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Cwm Rhondda, 7/1 Mystic Art, 8/1 Viable, 9/1 Pretty Officer, 10/1 Desert Hawk, Sir Haydn, 16/1 Eagle Nebula, Generous Lad, Iceman George, Your Golf Travel, Zain, 20/1 Camera Shy, 25/1 Credential, 33/1 Lawyer To World, Strategic Knight, Usetheforce.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CWM RHONDDA (nap) has to be the pick after last week's thoroughly convincing win over C&D. Today's mediocre opposition is a major factor in her appeal and although various connections are chopping and changing with things like the trip and use of headgear, none are that persuasive. The main threat may emerge from Pretty Officer, Mystic Art or Viable.[RA] |
After Fantastic Dubai's place success yesterday, here we have a 100% qualifier for the price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap, and that's quite a price gap too - no grey areas with this one as a qualifier!
Concern with the middle distance in such a big field - 16 runners but we WILL have 4 places on Betfair regardless of any late non runners (which are typical of this race as bookies will no doubt end up paying out 3 places with a late non runner)
5 length winner last time out under Jack Mitchell who rides today, horse is a course and distance winner ( I'm trying to build up more evidence to include as a selection!)
605 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kensington Oval, 4/1 Serious Impact, 7/1 Pelham Crescent, 11/1 Dr Livingstone, Moves Goodenough, 12/1 Wiggy Smith, 14/1 Baylini, Constant Cheers, Saltagioo, 16/1 Mountain Pride, 20/1 Alfie Tupper, Sharpazmax, 25/1 By Command, Mafeking.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Michael Stoute had a treble at last Thursday's evening meeting here and can get tonight off to a good start with KENSINGTON OVAL who, being a brother to the stable's high-class performer Ask, is bred to be much better than his current rating of 85. A gelding operation since last season may have had a positive effect, as well as another year under his belt, and he could fulfil his initial promise this term. Serious Impact, another unexposed sort, is next on the list.[SB] |
2nd fav a non runner has turned this fav into a price gapper in the live market.
11 runners and another competitive handicap over middle distances
Fav has not run since September 2008 which is a cause for concern to me
620 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alfred Nobel, 7/2 Montecchio, 5/1 Cool Marble, Rosa Muscosa, 6/1 Bobbyscot, Boxing Day, 8/1 Days Ahead, 12/1 One Set, 50/1 Raging Spirit.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALFRED NOBEL, whose sire Danehill Dancer was responsible for last weekend's two Irish Guineas winners, looks set to open his account at the third attempt. The step up in trip should suit the Ballydoyle-trained colt who has managed to find a bit of trouble in running on both starts so far, when splitting Pilgrim Dancer and subsequent winner Love Lockdown over 5f on his debut at Naas, and when third to Atasari over 6f at the Curragh.\n |
Ballydoyle juveniles usually improve for the run ( Alfred has had 2, both in the first 3). These decent runs have come on heavy and yielding. Will the horse improve for the good ground?
635 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Monsieur Chevalier, 3/1 Raine´s Cross, 7/1 High Spice, Star Rover, 14/1 Soccer, 25/1 Fratellino, 50/1 Mijas Playa, 66/1 Lees Anthem.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MONSIEUR CHEVALIER has done everything asked of him with something to spare and has strong claims in a race which his trainer has made a speciality of winning (successful three times in last seven years, eight times since 1992). Raine's Cross, whose Bath form has worked out very well, could give him most to do
Ods on in a class 1 must also be respected, but when it's a class 1 listed race, all horses are there on merit. 2nd fav is also popular as I write.
The straight 8 runners, so 3 places and only 5 to beat to place and a look at the screenshot shows a few that can be discounted if the prices are reflective of their chances?
710 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Patkai, 7/2 Geordieland, 7/1 Tastahil, 12/1 Fiulin, 14/1 Tungsten Strike, 33/1 Viper, 50/1 Bulwark.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for PATKAI to make it three out of three over this trip and enhance his credentials for the Gold Cup. Geordieland does not find it easy to win but he is clearly one of the best stayers around judged on his seconds to Yeats in the Gold Cup in 2007 and 2008 and he is the most likely threat.[AC] |
More high class action for a Thursday. Only 2 places alas but the betting forecast indicates perhaps 3 to focus on under 12/1.As I write, ( and it's 8+ hours before race time), 3 horses are 25/1 or bigger and Patkai retains odds on status.
This is a 2 miler staying event so the jockeys do play a big part in judging pace and timing so with only 2 places we need to get this right as ,again, all horses are there on merit regardless of price. Ryan Moore has won twice on this horse over the trip so this is a great positive.
735 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Lady Artemisia, 7/2 Charity Belle, 7/1 Mexican Jay, 12/1 Yashkur, 14/1 Flying Phoebe, 25/1 Flora´s Pride, Smarties Party, 33/1 Waltzalong, 66/1 Goswick, 100/1 Lady Anne Nevill.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LADY ARTEMESIA's narrow Salisbury defeat when well clear of the third looks good enough to win any average fillies' maiden, though confidence behind newcomer Charity Belle would be interesting, given her trainer saddled the selection's conqueror.[PJ] |
Front 2 -price gap to the next. Maiden fillies and 5 debutants . Fav has had 2 runs this year which is always encouraging to see, but as ever, we simply have no idea regarding the newcomers' potential ability
800 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Alandi, 4/1 Hindu Kush, 9/2 The Betchworth Kid, 7/1 Donegal, 10/1 Suailce, Sublimity, 16/1 Merveilles.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALANDI is hard to oppose in his attempt to extend his unbeaten sequence to three. |
"Hard to beat" selection has Eyebrows onboard for John Oxx and it's a formidable combination on fancied horses. Only 2 places alas
Plenty to ponder over today and as it's only 1120am, I can update an hour or so before racing (c 1pm)
As you saw yesterday, with one a day you live or die by your final decision and if I would have gone with any of my Champions LEague ideas I would have lost out! Similar today - many opportunities which look rock solid and the hope is that one will really stand out nearer the off.
Back at 1pm
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