Another day of many races and the odd football match today
FOOTBALL
| 12:30 | Rangers vs Aberdeen | 1/4 |
Aberdeen have drawn 5 of their last 8. Beaten 2-0 recently by Celtic can give us a pointer to expected score today? 1.25 to win
| 14:30 | Stuttgart vs Cottbus | 1/4 |
Won 7 and drawn 1 of last 8 is red hot form at the right time of the season
Beat Cottbus 3-0 at their place
Cottbus have lost 8 of last 11
Shock win at 3rd place Hertha the standout result for Cottbs, but spanked by 2+ goals away to top 2 sides (Stuttgart is 3rd side) 1.27 to win
| 14:30 | Hamburg vs Cologne | 1/4 |
Beat Koln at their place 2-1
Home form is what has kept Hamburg going
Koln have lost 8 of their last 10
Away to top 5 have managed wins at Bayern and Stuttgart so this must be accounted for. 1.3 to win
| 15:00 | Kryvbas Kryviy vs Dnipro | 7/1 | 10/3 | 3/10 |
| 16:00 | Zorya Lugansk vs Shakhtar | 7/1 | 7/2 | 3/10 |
Excellent recent form for Shaktar and head to heads hey have generally won by 2+ goals
| 16:45 | Legia Warsaw vs Polonia Bytom | 1/5 |
Polonia B have an away record of 3-1-9 (W-D-L)
Could be tighter than the records indicate here. Might be made to sweat for a goal - 2 away losses for Legia could galvanise them to 3 points today
Head to heads have been tight
| 17:00 | Salzburg vs LASK | 1/6 |
Have won all bar one at home and quite convincingly in all cases. Beat LASK 3-0 at their place
LASK lost all bar 3 away - 2 draws at 1-1 and an away win 1-0. Drew against 2nd in league 1-1 so a hint that they could be tight away from home 1.17 to win
| 17:00 | Roma vs Catania | 1/4 |
| 18:00 | Bordeaux vs Le Mans | 1/4 |
Given outstanding home form, perhaps lay Le Mans if the odds allow a decent return 1.29 to win
| 19:00 | Bruges vs Mouscron | 4/11 |
Mouscron have lost away to top 5
From the above, Bordeaux, Saltzburg, Hamburg, Suttgart, are the 4 to consider for me
On to today, and I have already made my daily target on an enhanced bet on 1.25 shots Locatmotiv Sofia who went a goal down and who I backed at 1.95. They have now equalised as I write and the price reduced to 1.35 . Pressure off me for today now!
| £25.72 » £0.00 | 1.37 £22 | 1.38 £8 | 1.45 £476 | 1.46 £30 | ||
| £25.68 » £0.00 | 6.6 £8 | 6.8 £9 | 13.5 £16 | 19 £3 | ||
| £25.68 » £0.00 | 4.7 £9 | 4.8 £9 | 5.8 £2 | 5.9 £5 |
I think today as far as possible I will be trying to avoid maiden races especially involving 2 year olds- they are just too unreliable given these horses are still learning
220 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Riggins, 9/2 Viva Vettori, 8/1 Ace Of Hearts, 10/1 Ellemujie, Twilight Star, 12/1 Dubai Dynamo, Isphahan, The Fifth Member, 14/1 Final Verse, 20/1 Kinsya, 25/1 Cordell, Habshan, Priti Fabulous, Resurge, Spring Goddess.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The interesting one here is RIGGINS (nap) who is clearly held in high regard judged on his Group 1 entry at Royal Ascot and has looked a promising sort when winning both his races on Polytrack. Viva Vettori ran well when second in a valuabe handicap here a fortnight ago and looks the main threat, although Ace Of Hearts and Ellemujie can be relied on to run their usual honest race.[AC] |
Riggins here is a price gapper in the live betting market, now 6/4.
But this is a handicap and by default competitive
Turf debutant
Soft ground now at Newbury is not the "good - soft" as advertised at the betting site -so caution at this venue as favs may have been originally based ontheir running on better ground 1.47 to place
245 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 To Arms, 11/8 King Troy, 13/2 Silver Sister, 12/1 Bold Policy, 25/1 Doubly Sharp, 33/1 Premier Bleu, 100/1 Chief Lady Olwyn.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: To Arms has to be feared on only his second start for Tim Vaughan, who has a good strike-rate at Bangor. However, KING TROY is guaranteed to be effective at this trip on a sharp track, has already scored over regulation fences and his yard has won this race for the last two years.[SB] |
Only 3 under 16/1 BUT only 2 places. To arms and king Troy look the ones to concentrate on, BUT can we safely discount Silver Sister? Again if we can't ,then one of the front 2 will NOT place - BUT which one will NOT place 1.35 and 1.32 the front 2 to place
255 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Clowance House, 3/1 Headline Act, 9/2 Chiberta King, Petrovsky, 8/1 Admirable Duque, 12/1 Distant Memories, 20/1 Orthology, 50/1 Highway Magic.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these are likely to end the season rated higher but the handicapper looks to have taken a chance with CLOWANCE HOUSE on the bare form of what he has achieved so far, with his Newbury third to subsequent Chester Vase fourth Sight Unseen (second and fifth both won since too) already working out well.[AC] |
Clowance house strong at the head of the market - straight 8 down to 7 now so hopefully still 3 places 1.27 to place and still 3 places
355 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mcmurrough, 7/2 Grasscutter, Shut The Bar, 10/1 In The Circle, 12/1 Conors Ace, 25/1 Douglas Julian, 33/1 Apache Brave, 40/1 La Pirogue, 66/1 Lucky Angler, Seatallan Swift, 100/1 Alwaysablue, Mister Rez.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MCMURROUGH (nap), tried in Grade 2 company twice from just three starts over hurdles, sets a decent standard dropped back in grade and can see off Shut The Bar and the consistent but frustrating Grasscutter.[SB] |
Top 3 against the field here?Only 3 under 10/1. With original fav out, Grasscutter and Shu the bar look the 2 to concentrate on 1.32 and 1.26 the front 2 ( minus McMurrough) to place
505 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Border Fusion, 7/2 Tommy Two Toes, 7/1 Maurice, 12/1 Von Origny, 14/1 Good Time Willie, 16/1 Belligerent, Magnetic Pole, 20/1 Geeveem, 33/1 Shraden Edition, 50/1 Sizzling Shizzy.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BORDER FUSION has good prospects of completing the hat-trick, even if recent pointing form suggests he will have his work cut out against Tommy Two Toes. For all that, Border Fusion's record in this race means that he still looks the one to side with.[FC] |
Border Fusion keeps winning in class 4 hunter chases anad his moves to class 2 and class 1 are the reasons why there is no recent winning form
A 3 miler hunter chase is not an ideal race type 1.27 to place
620 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Erzen, 4/1 Pasdelou, 8/1 Cash Calculator, 10/1 Planetarium, 14/1 Springtree, 20/1 Devon Native, 25/1 Leader Blue, 50/1 Adare, Come West, Kahyasi Jack, Karinga Magic, 100/1 Photogenique, Safeguard.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ERZEN has to give weight to older horses this time but he was never troubled at Ludlow and today's longer trip is an obvious move for this half-brother to Ascot Gold Cup winner Enzeli. Pasdelou represents last year's winning yard and is feared most after shaping well after an absence.[AWJ] |
Now 4/9 for McCoy and Henderson
Only 4 under 16/1 1.13 to place
705 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Strictly, 10/1 Say You Say Me, 12/1 Jimwil, Lochan Mor, 16/1 Cheyenne Red, 20/1 New Leyf, 25/1 Badge, 33/1 Whisper Softly, 50/1 Jung, Qualitas, 66/1 Iron Max, Monsieur Harvey, Rightcar Lewis.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Assuming conditions don't deteriorate considerably, it will be a major surprise if STRICTLY is beaten. Stablemates Cheyenne Red and Jimwil could be the ones for the places.[GN] |
Has had a recent run and a creditable 2nd place. 8/13 now is no quite the 4/11 quoted by the betting forecaster 1.16 to place
SHORTLIST
Well as I write, Lokomoiv Sofia went 2-1 down so i backed them again and they have equalised. £74 green screen!
Lokomotiv Sofia v Sliven | | Matched: GBP 87,482 |
| In-play Going in-play Live Scores |
|
| £74.08 » £0.00 | 1.55 £42 | 1.57 £8 | 1.7 £507 | 1.72 £224 | ||
| £73.71 » £0.00 | 8.8 £129 | 9.2 £60 | 9.8 £29 | 10 £129 | ||
| £73.71 » £0.00 | 3.25 £39 | 3.3 £353 | 3.9 £3 | 4 £6 |
This is why I keep banging on about enhanced bets!
SHORTLIST
Stuttgart have the motivation I like to see when thinking about backing a 1.27 shot. A win and they are right in the mix for the Championship
Saltzburg are 1.17 and look to be rock solid for me
Bordeaux are on one hell of a good run (but winning sequences always end!) and their home form is simply exemplary
255 NEWMARKET - Clowance House looks decent enough - looks a 4 horse race and 3 places. Concern again is that it is a class 3 handicap and thus competitive. Headline act a possible mover . If outsiders run to their prices, then Clowance House would seemingly have one to beat to place
620 UTTOXETER
Erzen has been strongly backed this early on into 4/9 with McCoy riding for Henderson and the 1.13 represents market confidence. McCoy has won on him already and rarely ballses up on shorties
705 DONCASTER
Strictly is 8/13 , not reflective of the betting forecaster's 4/11. Reading Spotlight, there is a ground concern. I remember this French jockey who cocked up on a shortie last time in England so I have no confidence in him really
ONE A DAY
As you can appreciate I am unmotivated as I have already made £74 on Lokomotiv Sofia using enhanced betting that I was talking about yesterday in the eletter. So I don't need a one a day bet today!
Acting " as if" I did, though, would lead me to ignore all Newbury races with its soft ground Saltzburg 1.17 is appealing from the footballing perspective
620 Utoxeter - faith in McCoy here perhaps at 1.13 on Erzen
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