200 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Lochan Mor, 4/1 Sweet Possession, 12/1 Chantilly Jewel, 16/1 Ivy The Terrible, Quasi Congaree, 20/1 Expensive Dinner, 33/1 Athboy Auction, Thoosa, 50/1 Shirley High.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sweet Possession is respected on the pick of her form but she'll do well to trouble the less exposed LOCHAN MOR, who shaped with plenty of encouragement when going close in a stronger Doncaster maiden.[BDO] |
1 /2 in the betting forecast is 1 /4 in the live market, and all this based on one run again! Only 2 under 20/1 and guess who's on board. The only person who can get a 1/4 shot unplaced ( see 30th April 2009 - Thomas Baines) 1.24 to win, 1.05 to place - not for a Spencer ridden horse -NO WAY MISSUS!
245 HAMILTON
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's plenty going for the in-form course winner IMPERIAL SWORD (nap), who escapes a penalty for his latest ready Haydock success and remains unbeaten when partnered by Jan Wilson.[BDO] |
Not the same as Cwm Rhondda but a price gapper in class 4 handicap 1.53 to place. Perhaps I am too stringent with this 1.50 rule as Sirhor won well at 1.50 to place yesterday
320 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Visions Of Johanna, 9/4 Heroes, 5/2 Birkside, 5/1 Ozone Trustee.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pick of these capable performers looks to be VISIONS OF JOHANNA, who quickly developed into a bright prospect last year and can build upon an encouraging first run for his current yard.[BDO] |
4 down to 3 so of interest from a probability perspective
430 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Reject, 7/2 Rogalt, 9/2 Raffanetti, 6/1 Deraaya, 8/1 Crime Writer, 14/1 Beaumont Princess, 20/1 Istiqdaam, 25/1 Trade Price, 66/1 Tarus,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: William Haggas has a good strike-rate on this track and looks to have found a decent opportunity for REJECT to make it third time lucky. Rogalt and Deraaya are the pick of his rivals on form with Raffanetti the most interesting of the newcomers.[AC] |
one non runner in Lowther - I suppose trainer doesn't mind as he came in at 100/1 yesterday!
Fav now odds on with quite a price gap in he live market. A maiden with 2 recent runs . 1.18 to place
630 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Wade Farm Billy, 7/1 Definite Style, 8/1 Give Me A Chance, 10/1 Dashing Bach, Richard The Third, 14/1 Buck The Trend, 20/1 Elegant Olive, Ski, 25/1 Johnny Be, Musical Weld, 50/1 Grey Dasler, Midnight Spirit, 100/1 Miss Zigzag.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a case of now or never for WADE FARM BILLY from a punting perspective as he boasts by far and away the best form and, back on a right-handed track, there can be no excuses.[AWJ] |
That's some price gap! Not quite as big in the live market and Wade Farm is NOT odds on in the live market. 1.34 to place in an illiquid market
700 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Catch The Stars, 9/2 Alecia, 7/1 Mystic Storm, 14/1 Pharaon De Touzaine, That´s An Honour, 20/1 Just Silver, 100/1 Corax, Marado, Paul Superstar.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very few with realistic claims and form pick CATCH THE STARS appears to be sitting pretty with Tony McCoy signed up. Alecia can lead the chase.[AWJ] |
Has the right guy on board if contemplating the shortie to place. 1.16 to place
740 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Admin, 7/2 Shakespearean, 10/1 Green For Luck, Victoire De Lyphar, 12/1 Il Forno, 14/1 Confessional, Tamanaco, 16/1 Abandagold, 66/1 Usquaebach.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting should help point the way with the newcomers - among whom Shakespearean appeals most on paper - but there was a lot to like about ADMIN's debut third at Goodwood and he may know too much at this stage.[FC] |
Now odds on the fav, but plenty of debutants and another fav well backed based on a sole run 1.17 to place
910 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Decision, 2/1 Devotion To Duty, 6/1 Sanctuary, 9/1 Gold Maha, 14/1 Tesserae, 20/1 Cottonfields, Saxona, 25/1 Oke Bay, 50/1 Carsington, Sleepy Silver, 66/1 Nouailhas.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Devotion To Duty has one piece of form that would give him every chance but he is not the most consistent, unlike \DECISION (nap), who has posted several solid displays and ran a blinder in a 0-105 handicap last time. The others have a fair bit to find.[SR] |
Solid enough form for the fav here but this is yet another maiden race - only 3 debutants though and the form of 3-2-2 looks like Decision is getting the hang of it 1.12 to place
SHORTLIST
Spencer on a 1.05 shot - you're having a giraffe!
320 HAMILTON
Take a look at the screenshot again. 2 of these horses will place, but which 2?
Birkside the live favourite? Brikside the shortest priced horse to back?
Visions of Johanna? The betting forecast favourite?
Ozone trustee? Hmm originally 5/1 outsider and still 4/1 in the live market.
A good probability race and it's ge a pin out , back one of the 3 and hope the fecker places.
630 TOWCESTER
Wade farm billy at 1.34 based solely on the price gap. I don't like Towcester and would prefer flat over jumps races as there are no obstalces in the former
700 TOWCESTER
Catch the stars has AP McCoy in the plate. Again Towcester is the negative. 3 of the 9 runners are 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 to place so it's a sort of 50/50 race.
1.16 over the jumps
910 HAYDOCK - Decision is 1.12 to place and has the placed form in the book for this maiden race.
ONE A DAY
320 HAmilton looks he best probability race of the day. It's always a risk with 3 runners that the outsider can be more competitive. As things stand, it looks a decision between Birkside and Visions of Johanna
I'll go with Birkside myself -although this is a bit of a gamble given it's a claimer
Fingers crossed
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